Nate Silver 538
Comments
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Cook has changed both Iowa and Ohio from Lean R to Toss Upwww.myspace.com0
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Trumps path to victory getting smaller, Biden's getting bigger.The Juggler said:Cook has changed both Iowa and Ohio from Lean R to Toss Up0 -
mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.
These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.0 -
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0 -
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory0 -
The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.0 -
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The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved icon0 -
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconwww.myspace.com0 -
The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.0 -
Yeah and there was one the same day had Biden up 10. So, yeah, about a 6 point lead sounds right.Lerxst1992 said:www.myspace.com0 -
I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.
He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.
He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.0 -
Yeah I think that's a good way of putting it. He didn't just allow himself to get walked all over, but he didn't go full-on crazy like Trump either. The whole thing was outrageous, even by Trump standards. There's going to be a whole generation of teenagers that think this is how debates should work, as well as adults that can barely remember how they're supposed to work.MayDay10 said:
I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.
He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.
He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
Agreed...I wanted him to fight back a bit more but I think he just let him throw feces and dig a deeper hole.MayDay10 said:
I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.
He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.
He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Gern Blansten said:
Agreed...I wanted him to fight back a bit more but I think he just let him throw feces and dig a deeper hole.MayDay10 said:
I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.
He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.
He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.This is a huge problem for Biden. I have seen countless “undecided” voters on tv talk about how they “both” ruined the debate.
If a voter is undecided after 5 years and 3 months of trump pulling this crap Since that escalator ride from hell, they are likely voting for trump and just need an excuse to do it. So every swing state poll, I’d give every % not in bidens column to trump. That’s why I think this is a closer race.
even on this left leaning forum, there are plenty of comments on the debate thread saying they are “both” terrible or both senile. Without any evidence supporting their views.
if certain voters haven’t been disgusted by now by trump or even by last nights abhorrent behavior, they are probably voting trump.0 -
now I'm starting to see the bigger picture of how you view things. there was literally two people who jokingly called them senile, and multiple posts back and forth arguing about it.Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:
Agreed...I wanted him to fight back a bit more but I think he just let him throw feces and dig a deeper hole.MayDay10 said:
I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.
He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.
He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.This is a huge problem for Biden. I have seen countless “undecided” voters on tv talk about how they “both” ruined the debate.
If a voter is undecided after 5 years and 3 months of trump pulling this crap Since that escalator ride from hell, they are likely voting for trump and just need an excuse to do it. So every swing state poll, I’d give every % not in bidens column to trump. That’s why I think this is a closer race.
even on this left leaning forum, there are plenty of comments on the debate thread saying they are “both” terrible or both senile. Without any evidence supporting their views.
if certain voters haven’t been disgusted by now by trump or even by last nights abhorrent behavior, they are probably voting trump.
i'd like to know how many really is "countless undecided voters" you've seen on tv.Your boos mean nothing to me, for I have seen what makes you cheer0 -
Do we need to post the results of the snap polls of undecided voters? There's not one that doesn't have Biden winning convincingly that I've seen.Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:
Agreed...I wanted him to fight back a bit more but I think he just let him throw feces and dig a deeper hole.MayDay10 said:
I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.
He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.
He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.This is a huge problem for Biden. I have seen countless “undecided” voters on tv talk about how they “both” ruined the debate.
If a voter is undecided after 5 years and 3 months of trump pulling this crap Since that escalator ride from hell, they are likely voting for trump and just need an excuse to do it. So every swing state poll, I’d give every % not in bidens column to trump. That’s why I think this is a closer race.
even on this left leaning forum, there are plenty of comments on the debate thread saying they are “both” terrible or both senile. Without any evidence supporting their views.
if certain voters haven’t been disgusted by now by trump or even by last nights abhorrent behavior, they are probably voting trump.0 -
Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand.Lerxst1992 said:
As someone mentioned, alot of it was assisted by Russia.Gern Blansten said:
The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:
All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material.Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:
Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral. It's happening more frequently now. But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.HughFreakingDillon said:
Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place.mrussel1 said:
The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16. Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden.This. Is. Not. 2016.These new PA polls are astounding. I.hope. they. are. spot. on.Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.
Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.
Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well.
He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.
Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.
Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved iconBiden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.
The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.I think that's probably the Trump Team's strategy. They have nothing except for the culture war and scary words like "socialism." So just turn everyone off to the whole process. Anecdotally, I feel like I saw a lot of people talking about Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum, and how "this is a shitshow all around."If they can't get people to vote for Trump, the next best thing is to get them not to vote.1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin 2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley 2025 Nashville (II)0
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