Nate Silver 538

The Juggler said:

Cook has changed both Iowa and Ohio from Lean R to Toss Up

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material. 

Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well. 

He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.

Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.

The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?  

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material. 

Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well. 

He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.

Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.

The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?  

As someone mentioned,  alot of it was assisted by Russia.

Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved icon 

He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand. 

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material. 

Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well. 

He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.

Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.

The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?  

As someone mentioned,  alot of it was assisted by Russia.

Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved icon 

He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand. 

Biden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.

The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

MayDay10 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material. 

Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well. 

He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.

Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.

The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?  

As someone mentioned,  alot of it was assisted by Russia.

Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved icon 

He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand. 

Biden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.

The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.

I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.

He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.

He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.

Agreed...I wanted him to fight back a bit more but I think he just let him throw feces and dig a deeper hole.

This is a huge problem for Biden. I have seen countless “undecided” voters on tv talk about how they “both” ruined the debate.

If a voter is undecided after 5 years and 3 months of trump pulling this crap Since that escalator ride from hell, they are likely voting for trump and just need an excuse to do it. So every swing state poll, I’d give every % not in bidens column to trump. That’s why I think this is a closer race.

even on this left leaning forum, there are plenty of comments on the debate thread  saying they are “both” terrible or both senile. Without any evidence supporting their views.

if certain voters haven’t been disgusted by now by trump or even by last nights abhorrent behavior, they are probably voting trump.

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material. 

Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well. 

He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.

Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.

The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?  

As someone mentioned,  alot of it was assisted by Russia.

Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved icon 

He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand. 

Biden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.

The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.