I hear you, he is a great player, that is just too much for too long in my opinion. There is no need to extend him a year and a half early for that money or time, its just not good business.
we're so used to losing our stars in this city though. i think its great that he might be able to spend his entire career in philly.
I could care less about stars playing here. I want the phils to win. this deal restricts them from winning once it kicks in.
majored in econ...you don't make deals that result in diminishing returns, which this contract surely will. dumb, dumb, dumb.
everyone loves amaro because he's winning with what gillick built. his deals are questionable at best.
halladay deal = great
ibanez deal = bad
polanco deal = TBD (most think he overpaid in years and money)
blanton = same as polanco
Lidge = bad
howard = epitome of an overpay. albatross best describes it
victorino = TBD
don't mean to sound like debbie downer, but he has wasted a lot of money that could have been invested more responsibly (cliff lee and/or jayson werth).
I'm not the biggest werth fan (I think he makes a lot of mental errors on bases and in field)...but I'd rather see werth get overpaid than howard. 1B and closer are the 2 positions I'd never overpay for.
blanton turned out to be bad too. that money could have gone to lee this year.
plus you forgot about moyer. terrible signing.
i agree with you on amaro. and i agree that they overpaid on howard. i'm just glad he's locked up for so long.
Posted this over in the Yankees and Boston threads but it is relevant to the Phillies as well so I figured I would post it here as well since its really interesting.
Of the top 8 teams in terms of revenue, the Yanks are last in terms of percentage spent on payroll. Phillies are 3rd to Boston and Detroit. Kind of makes me think a little differently about the Lee trade. If they had kept him the percentage would go from 60.9% to almost 65% and just behind Detroit.
2 of those teams have a TV station that generates revenue.
come on dude...yanks and last in payroll should never be used in same sentence again. you know this...just stop
I agree, was not really trying to say anything about the Yankees, that should honestly be everyone but the yankees because their revenue is almost double anyone else. Was more just pointing out the percentage the phillies spend.
Your avatar, did you take that picture? Have you seen the stadium already? I saw some pictures and it looks really really small but very nice.
nah, i got that picture from the Union website. think the stadium holds around 18,500. Can't wait till it opens up. Went to the match at the Linc and that place was rockin!
Your avatar, did you take that picture? Have you seen the stadium already? I saw some pictures and it looks really really small but very nice.
nah, i got that picture from the Union website. think the stadium holds around 18,500. Can't wait till it opens up. Went to the match at the Linc and that place was rockin!
well they started off 6-8 last year against a pretty weak schedule. they did pick things up at the end of the month though.
i dont think this first month is as much of a cake walk as everyone else does especially with the injuries, bullpen questions, ibanez's struggles, and our early season history. lotta road games. a west coast swing against giants. you got the braves in atlanta (where we struggled last year). marlins will be at the bank for a 3 game set--i think they're gonna be decent this year too. should be interesting. i'm thinking 12-10 or 13-9....monday cannot come soon enough though.
[/quote]Yeah man, I am looking forward to heading down there. Should be awesome. Looks like they are building a great facility.
I heard the game at the Linc was a great time. I was busy that day but plan on goign on the 15th (i think thats the date).[/quote]
Cliff, that Le Toux free kick around the 80th min was incredible(almost like Howard hitting a go ahead homer in the 9th, ALMOST). the only bummer was they stopped selling beers in the 47th min :( hope the new park has a different policy...
well they started off 6-8 last year against a pretty weak schedule. they did pick things up at the end of the month though.
i dont think this first month is as much of a cake walk as everyone else does especially with the injuries, bullpen questions, ibanez's struggles, and our early season history. lotta road games. a west coast swing against giants. you got the braves in atlanta (where we struggled last year). marlins will be at the bank for a 3 game set--i think they're gonna be decent this year too. should be interesting. i'm thinking 12-10 or 13-9....monday cannot come soon enough though.
injuries are the only reason
you're still the guy that wanted pedro feliz back. haha
Howard Gets Extension Through 2016
by Bill Baer on April 26th, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 28 Comments »
EDIT: Check out what Matt Swartz has to say about the extension at Baseball Prospectus. He makes a lot of good points. Swartz specifically adjusts for inflation, something I was too lazy to do in the analysis below.
Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly has the scoop. Five years, $125 million extension for Ryan Howard and it kicks in after the 2011 season.
From 2005-09, Howard has contributed 21.6 WAR, an average of 4.3 per season. In that span of time, he has been paid $26.6 million and provided an overall value (production minus salary) of $66.6 million. Seems like a great deal, right?
The going rate for a win in 2010 is about $5 million, which means that — assuming that figure stays static — in 2011 and ‘12, Howard will be paid as a 4-win player. From 2013-16, he will be paid as a 5-win player. Using the ten-year forecast from Baseball Prospectus, Howard will be worth 3.3 wins (WARP3) in 2011 and decline gradually.
Over the length of the extension, Howard is projected to accrue 11.7 WARP3, an average of under 2 per season. Even if we make the extremely generous and unrealistic assumption that the value of a win is $5 million not just in 2010, but throughout the length of the contract (it won’t — it will rise most likely), Howard still provides an increasingly negative value to the Phillies. $84.5 million specifically from 2012-17. In chart form:
*Note: 2010-17 numbers are projected and assume a static $/win of $5 million (because it is impossible to know exactly what the going rate will be). Howard’s value is likely to be much worse than indicated above. Additionally, the 2017 season is a club option with a $10 million buy-out.
This extension pushes the Phillies’ guaranteed payroll in 2012 to about $87 million, tied up to just eight players including Howard: Roy Halladay ($20 million), Chase Utley ($15.3M), Joe Blanton ($10.5M), Shane Victorino ($9.4M), Placido Polanco ($6.4M), Carlos Ruiz ($3.7M), and Brad Lidge ($1.5M). There may be six arbitration-eligible players as well in Cole Hamels (fourth year), Kyle Kendrick (second), Ben Francisco (second), Scott Mathieson (second), J.A. Happ (first), and Mike Zagurski (first). In short, the Phillies will be paying a lot of money to just a few players, almost all of them past their prime. Furthermore, the team will have very little flexibility as few teams will want to take on such expensive contracts.
Thinking more short-term, Howard’s $20 million salary from 2011-13 may prevent the Phillies from having the financial flexibility to sign right fielder Jayson Werth to an extension, which means that he will most likely become a free agent after this season. You may recall that two months ago, I suggested the Phillies should think about trading Howard to give themselves the ability to extend Werth. Obviously, GM Ruben Amaro disagreed and apparently has tremendous faith in Domonic Brown to transition seamlessly to the Majors. The 2011 team will look a lot like this year’s team, only with Dom in right instead of Werth.
There are a couple positives with the deal. The first, obviously, is that the Phillies will not have to look for a first baseman for a long, long time — barring injury. It is unfortunate, though, that the Phillies have locked up such security at the least important position on the baseball diamond in the National League. Additionally, the Phillies may end up saving themselves several million dollars every year theoretically as the post-2011 free agent market may include Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder and both may exceed Howard’s average annual value of $25 million per season. Both players are likely to be signed to extensions (in Fielder’s case, perhaps with a new team) beforehand.
Most Phillies fans will love the extension, as it keeps a fan favorite in town for a long time. Stat-savvy fans immediately dislike the deal. Most Phillies fans will come to loathe the deal in several years when the Phillies are hamstrung by Howard’s relatively large salary and declining production.
Already, Howard has shown signs of decline as his walk rate has declined every year since 2007 and sits at a paltry 3.6% thus far in 2010. His BABIP has been lower as more and more teams have employed an infield shift against him. Opposing teams have also been bringing in more left-handed relievers to face Howard and his production against them has swiftly dropped. His strikeout rate has declined gradually but so has his isolated power. Using FanGraphs’ pitch type linear weights, Howard’s production against the fastball has dropped every year since 2006. He has swung at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone every year since he came into the Majors. Finally, his whiff rate (swinging strike percentage) has increased every year since 2006.
This will be a fun ride for two, maybe even three more years, but it will quickly become tumultuous.
I should have played more baseball as a kid. This contract is insane, the most insane I think I've ever seen. As a Phillies fan, I think the managers are crazy. That's a lot of scratch to pay 1 guy to keep him in town.
well they started off 6-8 last year against a pretty weak schedule. they did pick things up at the end of the month though.
i dont think this first month is as much of a cake walk as everyone else does especially with the injuries, bullpen questions, ibanez's struggles, and our early season history. lotta road games. a west coast swing against giants. you got the braves in atlanta (where we struggled last year). marlins will be at the bank for a 3 game set--i think they're gonna be decent this year too. should be interesting. i'm thinking 12-10 or 13-9....monday cannot come soon enough though.
you are, just with the wrong stats (like RBI). your defense of pedro feliz proved you're not a huge stat guy
so rbi's are meaningless huh? the main run producing stat this sport has used for the past 130 some years doesn't count for anything? riigggggght. comments like that is proof positive why sabermetrics is a bit of a croc. that rob neyer guy had a list of 20 or more players who are better than ryan howard based on those numbers. c'mon!
"just get me to the plate boys"---sabermetric doesnt measure that kind of stat.
so rbi's are meaningless huh? the main run producing stat this sport has used for the past 130 some years doesn't count for anything? riigggggght. comments like that is proof positive why sabermetrics is a bit of a croc. that rob neyer guy had a list of 20 or more players who are better than ryan howard based on those numbers. c'mon!
"just get me to the plate boys"---sabermetric doesnt measure that kind of stat.[/quote]
I'm not a rob neyer fan either.
Think about RBI though...it is completely dependent on teammates being on base (except for solo HRs). christ, rico brogna had back to back 100 RBI seasons. RBI is a terrible judge of individual talent
so rbi's are meaningless huh? the main run producing stat this sport has used for the past 130 some years doesn't count for anything? riigggggght. comments like that is proof positive why sabermetrics is a bit of a croc. that rob neyer guy had a list of 20 or more players who are better than ryan howard based on those numbers. c'mon!
"just get me to the plate boys"---sabermetric doesnt measure that kind of stat.
I'm not a rob neyer fan either.
Think about RBI though...it is completely dependent on teammates being on base (except for solo HRs). christ, rico brogna had back to back 100 RBI seasons. RBI is a terrible judge of individual talent[/quote]
your quoting is offensive...
i hear you about depending upon guys in front of you being on base....but if you don't put the ball into play at the right spot, you won't have any rbi's to speak of.
so you're saying howard's 140 rbi's each year is a meaningless stat? i say having a shit load of rbi's means you're a clutch and timely hitter.
so rbi's are meaningless huh? the main run producing stat this sport has used for the past 130 some years doesn't count for anything? riigggggght. comments like that is proof positive why sabermetrics is a bit of a croc. that rob neyer guy had a list of 20 or more players who are better than ryan howard based on those numbers. c'mon!
"just get me to the plate boys"---sabermetric doesnt measure that kind of stat.
I'm not a rob neyer fan either.
Think about RBI though...it is completely dependent on teammates being on base (except for solo HRs). christ, rico brogna had back to back 100 RBI seasons. RBI is a terrible judge of individual talent
Ryan Howard is the classic sit back over 162 games and no matter how bad he might look at times he is going to end up with 45+ homers and 140+ rbi's. Watching the guy every day he can be frustrating at times but the guy is an offensive stud that can single handedly carry you for weeks at a time. not to mention how much worth he gives a guy like Jason Werth. Do you think Jason Werth is an over 30 homer guy without howard in front of him?The end years of the deal may not be great for this franchise, but having him locked up gives this team another 3-4 years window in the NL - can't argue with that. I'll take the risk of 2 extra years at $25 million for the opportunity to win it all for another 3 or 4 years.
RBI is not meaningless but it is not a solid way to judge a player. If Ryan Howard played for the Pirates he would be lucky to have 100 rbi's. Too much of the stat depends on the players around him.
met fan here watching the mets make short work of the phils...a team i dont hate btw. aaaannyyyways, someone said that if you put ryan howard on a team like the pirates that he would produce alot less. same can be said for ANYONE YOU PUT IN THAT SITUATION (pujols, a-rod, cabrera, etc.) ryan howard can be a shitshow from time to time, but he produces runs because he can hit. yes, the team around him can hit too but he can bring them around more often than not. what about ortiz on boston? that lineup has always been loaded. he cant hit anymore and he isnt producing rbis like he used to. ryan howard is the real deal. did i mention im a met fan? rbis are not an overrated stat. im not a huge numbers guy but they still affect how the game is played and managed. whats the point of putting a guy in a spot to knock in runs if he cant hit? ryan howard finds a way just like other big run producers do.
met fan here watching the mets make short work of the phils...a team i dont hate btw. aaaannyyyways, someone said that if you put ryan howard on a team like the pirates that he would produce alot less. same can be said for ANYONE YOU PUT IN THAT SITUATION (pujols, a-rod, cabrera, etc.) ryan howard can be a shitshow from time to time, but he produces runs because he can hit. yes, the team around him can hit too but he can bring them around more often than not. what about ortiz on boston? that lineup has always been loaded. he cant hit anymore and he isnt producing rbis like he used to. ryan howard is the real deal. did i mention im a met fan? rbis are not an overrated stat. im not a huge numbers guy but they still affect how the game is played and managed. whats the point of putting a guy in a spot to knock in runs if he cant hit? ryan howard finds a way just like other big run producers do.
david ortiz had 99 RBI last year.
like I mentioned before...rico brogna had consecutive 100 RBI seasons for the phils. RBI are compilation stats that are virtually meaningless when evaluating a players performance
thanks for telling us that ryan howard is for real. that's good to know
The end years of the deal may not be great for this franchise, but having him locked up gives this team another 3-4 years window in the NL - can't argue with that. I'll take the risk of 2 extra years at $25 million for the opportunity to win it all for another 3 or 4 years.[/quote]
totally disagree. this deal hurts the phils ability to win over the next 3 to 4 years. Howard had 2 years left on his deal. There was no need to extend him so early (if at all). Now they have so much money allocated to howard, it restricts their ability to add players at the deadline, or re-sign more important players like rollins and utley.
I like howard, but this deal is horrible for the phils. I'm in the minority...most people in philly were happy when howard got $10 million in arbitration, even though that was bad for the phils too.
there's a reason most baseball analysts (ie not philly radio hosts or newspaper columnists) hate this contract from the phils perspective
damn, stop the bleeding. Least their slump is in the beginning of the year :?
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly. PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
Comments
stop the bitterness fom losing last year
blanton turned out to be bad too. that money could have gone to lee this year.
plus you forgot about moyer. terrible signing.
i agree with you on amaro. and i agree that they overpaid on howard. i'm just glad he's locked up for so long.
I agree, was not really trying to say anything about the Yankees, that should honestly be everyone but the yankees because their revenue is almost double anyone else. Was more just pointing out the percentage the phillies spend.
nah, i got that picture from the Union website. think the stadium holds around 18,500. Can't wait till it opens up. Went to the match at the Linc and that place was rockin!
http://philadelphiaunion.com/Content3.aspx?cid=4.2
Yeah man, I am looking forward to heading down there. Should be awesome. Looks like they are building a great facility.
I heard the game at the Linc was a great time. I was busy that day but plan on goign on the 15th (i think thats the date).
I heard the game at the Linc was a great time. I was busy that day but plan on goign on the 15th (i think thats the date).[/quote]
Cliff, that Le Toux free kick around the 80th min was incredible(almost like Howard hitting a go ahead homer in the 9th, ALMOST). the only bummer was they stopped selling beers in the 47th min :( hope the new park has a different policy...
and your right: Union vs FC Dallas May 15th
FUCK THE METS
injuries are the only reason
you're still the guy that wanted pedro feliz back. haha
Howard Gets Extension Through 2016
by Bill Baer on April 26th, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 28 Comments »
EDIT: Check out what Matt Swartz has to say about the extension at Baseball Prospectus. He makes a lot of good points. Swartz specifically adjusts for inflation, something I was too lazy to do in the analysis below.
Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly has the scoop. Five years, $125 million extension for Ryan Howard and it kicks in after the 2011 season.
From 2005-09, Howard has contributed 21.6 WAR, an average of 4.3 per season. In that span of time, he has been paid $26.6 million and provided an overall value (production minus salary) of $66.6 million. Seems like a great deal, right?
The going rate for a win in 2010 is about $5 million, which means that — assuming that figure stays static — in 2011 and ‘12, Howard will be paid as a 4-win player. From 2013-16, he will be paid as a 5-win player. Using the ten-year forecast from Baseball Prospectus, Howard will be worth 3.3 wins (WARP3) in 2011 and decline gradually.
Over the length of the extension, Howard is projected to accrue 11.7 WARP3, an average of under 2 per season. Even if we make the extremely generous and unrealistic assumption that the value of a win is $5 million not just in 2010, but throughout the length of the contract (it won’t — it will rise most likely), Howard still provides an increasingly negative value to the Phillies. $84.5 million specifically from 2012-17. In chart form:
*Note: 2010-17 numbers are projected and assume a static $/win of $5 million (because it is impossible to know exactly what the going rate will be). Howard’s value is likely to be much worse than indicated above. Additionally, the 2017 season is a club option with a $10 million buy-out.
This extension pushes the Phillies’ guaranteed payroll in 2012 to about $87 million, tied up to just eight players including Howard: Roy Halladay ($20 million), Chase Utley ($15.3M), Joe Blanton ($10.5M), Shane Victorino ($9.4M), Placido Polanco ($6.4M), Carlos Ruiz ($3.7M), and Brad Lidge ($1.5M). There may be six arbitration-eligible players as well in Cole Hamels (fourth year), Kyle Kendrick (second), Ben Francisco (second), Scott Mathieson (second), J.A. Happ (first), and Mike Zagurski (first). In short, the Phillies will be paying a lot of money to just a few players, almost all of them past their prime. Furthermore, the team will have very little flexibility as few teams will want to take on such expensive contracts.
Thinking more short-term, Howard’s $20 million salary from 2011-13 may prevent the Phillies from having the financial flexibility to sign right fielder Jayson Werth to an extension, which means that he will most likely become a free agent after this season. You may recall that two months ago, I suggested the Phillies should think about trading Howard to give themselves the ability to extend Werth. Obviously, GM Ruben Amaro disagreed and apparently has tremendous faith in Domonic Brown to transition seamlessly to the Majors. The 2011 team will look a lot like this year’s team, only with Dom in right instead of Werth.
There are a couple positives with the deal. The first, obviously, is that the Phillies will not have to look for a first baseman for a long, long time — barring injury. It is unfortunate, though, that the Phillies have locked up such security at the least important position on the baseball diamond in the National League. Additionally, the Phillies may end up saving themselves several million dollars every year theoretically as the post-2011 free agent market may include Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder and both may exceed Howard’s average annual value of $25 million per season. Both players are likely to be signed to extensions (in Fielder’s case, perhaps with a new team) beforehand.
Most Phillies fans will love the extension, as it keeps a fan favorite in town for a long time. Stat-savvy fans immediately dislike the deal. Most Phillies fans will come to loathe the deal in several years when the Phillies are hamstrung by Howard’s relatively large salary and declining production.
Already, Howard has shown signs of decline as his walk rate has declined every year since 2007 and sits at a paltry 3.6% thus far in 2010. His BABIP has been lower as more and more teams have employed an infield shift against him. Opposing teams have also been bringing in more left-handed relievers to face Howard and his production against them has swiftly dropped. His strikeout rate has declined gradually but so has his isolated power. Using FanGraphs’ pitch type linear weights, Howard’s production against the fastball has dropped every year since 2006. He has swung at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone every year since he came into the Majors. Finally, his whiff rate (swinging strike percentage) has increased every year since 2006.
This will be a fun ride for two, maybe even three more years, but it will quickly become tumultuous.
injuries plus everything else i mentioned...
Not true
haha...i am only half kidding.
not a huge stat guy.
you are, just with the wrong stats (like RBI). your defense of pedro feliz proved you're not a huge stat guy
read moneyball. it's a great starting point for those interested in how players are evaluated thru statistics.
so rbi's are meaningless huh? the main run producing stat this sport has used for the past 130 some years doesn't count for anything? riigggggght. comments like that is proof positive why sabermetrics is a bit of a croc. that rob neyer guy had a list of 20 or more players who are better than ryan howard based on those numbers. c'mon!
"just get me to the plate boys"---sabermetric doesnt measure that kind of stat.
"just get me to the plate boys"---sabermetric doesnt measure that kind of stat.[/quote]
I'm not a rob neyer fan either.
Think about RBI though...it is completely dependent on teammates being on base (except for solo HRs). christ, rico brogna had back to back 100 RBI seasons. RBI is a terrible judge of individual talent
I'm not a rob neyer fan either.
Think about RBI though...it is completely dependent on teammates being on base (except for solo HRs). christ, rico brogna had back to back 100 RBI seasons. RBI is a terrible judge of individual talent[/quote]
your quoting is offensive...
i hear you about depending upon guys in front of you being on base....but if you don't put the ball into play at the right spot, you won't have any rbi's to speak of.
so you're saying howard's 140 rbi's each year is a meaningless stat? i say having a shit load of rbi's means you're a clutch and timely hitter.
Ryan Howard is the classic sit back over 162 games and no matter how bad he might look at times he is going to end up with 45+ homers and 140+ rbi's. Watching the guy every day he can be frustrating at times but the guy is an offensive stud that can single handedly carry you for weeks at a time. not to mention how much worth he gives a guy like Jason Werth. Do you think Jason Werth is an over 30 homer guy without howard in front of him?The end years of the deal may not be great for this franchise, but having him locked up gives this team another 3-4 years window in the NL - can't argue with that. I'll take the risk of 2 extra years at $25 million for the opportunity to win it all for another 3 or 4 years.
And there is a great stat for the, BABIP
you crazy kids and your stats
Also, you don't even need to get a hit to get an RBI. It has nothing to do with 'clutch hitting' as someone else mentioned.
RBI, wins (for pitchers), saves. they're all bad judges of performance. all of those stats are mainly dependent on outside factors.
david ortiz had 99 RBI last year.
like I mentioned before...rico brogna had consecutive 100 RBI seasons for the phils. RBI are compilation stats that are virtually meaningless when evaluating a players performance
thanks for telling us that ryan howard is for real. that's good to know
totally disagree. this deal hurts the phils ability to win over the next 3 to 4 years. Howard had 2 years left on his deal. There was no need to extend him so early (if at all). Now they have so much money allocated to howard, it restricts their ability to add players at the deadline, or re-sign more important players like rollins and utley.
I like howard, but this deal is horrible for the phils. I'm in the minority...most people in philly were happy when howard got $10 million in arbitration, even though that was bad for the phils too.
there's a reason most baseball analysts (ie not philly radio hosts or newspaper columnists) hate this contract from the phils perspective
this explains a lot.
preach on cliffy.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA