2 things...the phils have better young pitchers than worley. I think he is expendible. Sell high baby. johnny, like you've been saying, spend on the rotation and keep the cheap kids in the pen.
You already are gonna have 3 starters making about $65M! Gotta have one or 2 cheap ones. Stuff is great but there's something to be said for proving you can do it in the show.
worley has been up for approx 2 months. that doesn't mean much.
It's all about winning this year. Giving worley up isn't exactly giving the farm away. he's certainly not a guy that would be a deal breaker at this point
Malfunction: Ryan Howard is leading the National League in RBIs, and he's on his way to another 30-homer season. Still, if you look a little deeper, the 31-year-old is having a disappointing campaign and a terrible July, with just a .548 OPS in 14 games this month. That's a small sample size, but Howard's decline has been nearly linear: Beginning in 2006, his MVP campaign, his yearly OPS has been the following: 1.084, .976, .881, .931, .859, .795. This would all be worrisome in itself, but his contract makes it positively frightening. Starting next year, the Phillies owe him $125 million through 2016. Is Ryan Howard's bat turning from elite to ordinary?
Diagnosis: Ryan Howard has been one of the ultimate touchstones for the debate about just how useful RBIs are in measuring a hitter's value. The sabermetric answer, of course, is "not very." RBI totals have much more to do with a hitter's teammates — the ones who got on base in order to be driven in — than with the one driving them in.
As Joe Posnanski wrote a week ago:
Howard leads all of baseball with 296 runners on base. He had an amazing 60 game-stretch recently when he hit .223 … and he still drove in 47 runs in those 60 games.
But a low batting average is the least of it. Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley lays out the statistics of the matter: Ryan Howard is in the process of posting career lows in Isolated Power, Weighted On-Base Average, and hitting against left-handed pitchers.
The drop in Isolated Power — a measure of a hitter's ability to hit for extra bases, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage — has been particularly precipitous, declining from a spectacular .346 in 2006 to a more ordinary .207 in 2011, lower than his teammate Shane Victorino(notes). Moreover, the collapse in his platoon splits suggests that Howard, who only has a .637 OPS against southpaws this year, may need to be removed from his everyday role when a left-hander is on the mound. Weighted On-Base Average is an overall measure of offensive performance, sort of like a more advanced version of OPS — another measure in which he's posting a career low.
The drop in his Isolated Power is particularly salient for a power hitter like Howard: It's 40 percent lower this year than it was when he won his MVP. But his walk rate this year has declined by nearly a quarter, from 15.3 percent in 2006 to 11.7 percent this year. (He has also cut his strikeouts, but not by quite as much.) If that weren't enough, Fangraphs has Howard as a below-average baserunner and below-average fielder.
That said, Howard is a notorious second-half hitter. For his career, he has an .867 OPS in the first half and a 1.007 OPS in the second half. So it's very possible that he'll catch fire for the rest of the summer and post the kind of numbers we got used to seeing from him before his injury-shortened 2010. However, I noted Howard's traditional second-half bounce in Slumpbot last June, and Howard proceeded to produce an .858 OPS in the second half after posting an .859 OPS in the first half. So it's quite likely that Howard's problems — especially his declining power and walks — are caused by something other than the calendar.
Reboot Directions: Ryan Howard is still a pretty good hitter, particularly in a year in which offense is down across the league. But he isn't very good, and his power has been on a linear decline for six years. Even if his Batting Average on Balls in Play climbs up 34 points to reach his career average, that overall decline is almost sure to continue.
I have no idea where the M's came from. I have seen the phils linked to brandon league, but they're not giving up singleton for him
Last year Melky's ops+ was 81 over a full season. So far this year much better though, which I didn't realize.
Strangely I am not drunk, but very tired. Time for bed.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Malfunction: Ryan Howard is leading the National League in RBIs, and he's on his way to another 30-homer season. Still, if you look a little deeper, the 31-year-old is having a disappointing campaign and a terrible July, with just a .548 OPS in 14 games this month. That's a small sample size, but Howard's decline has been nearly linear: Beginning in 2006, his MVP campaign, his yearly OPS has been the following: 1.084, .976, .881, .931, .859, .795. This would all be worrisome in itself, but his contract makes it positively frightening. Starting next year, the Phillies owe him $125 million through 2016. Is Ryan Howard's bat turning from elite to ordinary?
Diagnosis: Ryan Howard has been one of the ultimate touchstones for the debate about just how useful RBIs are in measuring a hitter's value. The sabermetric answer, of course, is "not very." RBI totals have much more to do with a hitter's teammates — the ones who got on base in order to be driven in — than with the one driving them in.
As Joe Posnanski wrote a week ago:
Howard leads all of baseball with 296 runners on base. He had an amazing 60 game-stretch recently when he hit .223 … and he still drove in 47 runs in those 60 games.
But a low batting average is the least of it. Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley lays out the statistics of the matter: Ryan Howard is in the process of posting career lows in Isolated Power, Weighted On-Base Average, and hitting against left-handed pitchers.
The drop in Isolated Power — a measure of a hitter's ability to hit for extra bases, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage — has been particularly precipitous, declining from a spectacular .346 in 2006 to a more ordinary .207 in 2011, lower than his teammate Shane Victorino(notes). Moreover, the collapse in his platoon splits suggests that Howard, who only has a .637 OPS against southpaws this year, may need to be removed from his everyday role when a left-hander is on the mound. Weighted On-Base Average is an overall measure of offensive performance, sort of like a more advanced version of OPS — another measure in which he's posting a career low.
The drop in his Isolated Power is particularly salient for a power hitter like Howard: It's 40 percent lower this year than it was when he won his MVP. But his walk rate this year has declined by nearly a quarter, from 15.3 percent in 2006 to 11.7 percent this year. (He has also cut his strikeouts, but not by quite as much.) If that weren't enough, Fangraphs has Howard as a below-average baserunner and below-average fielder.
That said, Howard is a notorious second-half hitter. For his career, he has an .867 OPS in the first half and a 1.007 OPS in the second half. So it's very possible that he'll catch fire for the rest of the summer and post the kind of numbers we got used to seeing from him before his injury-shortened 2010. However, I noted Howard's traditional second-half bounce in Slumpbot last June, and Howard proceeded to produce an .858 OPS in the second half after posting an .859 OPS in the first half. So it's quite likely that Howard's problems — especially his declining power and walks — are caused by something other than the calendar.
Reboot Directions: Ryan Howard is still a pretty good hitter, particularly in a year in which offense is down across the league. But he isn't very good, and his power has been on a linear decline for six years. Even if his Batting Average on Balls in Play climbs up 34 points to reach his career average, that overall decline is almost sure to continue.
I swear I didn't write this article.
2 extra base hits in july :roll:
You didn't write the article but I think you commented below it...
Great article. I'm a huge Phillies fan and I've been raving to my friends about how Ryan Howard is bad for years now. The worst part is his ridiculous contract. He's not even a top 10 first baseman, but he's one of the highest paid players in the league. Absolutely ridiculous.
My drinking team has a hockey problem
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
2 things...the phils have better young pitchers than worley. I think he is expendible. Sell high baby. johnny, like you've been saying, spend on the rotation and keep the cheap kids in the pen
Me and my buddies had an email thread going about phils switch hitters of the last 20 years. Pretty short list we came up with. Let me know you guys can think of others.
rollins
victorino
gregg jefferies
tomas perez
michael martinez
hollins
stocker
morandini
steve jeltz
vicente padilla
this team's history really is horrendous.
morandini wasn't a switch hitter. i guess the close to thousand games he played for phils wasn't enough for you and your buddies to remember correctly :roll: :roll: :roll:
and how can you forget reuben (total package) amaro
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
2 things...the phils have better young pitchers than worley. I think he is expendible. Sell high baby. johnny, like you've been saying, spend on the rotation and keep the cheap kids in the pen
Me and my buddies had an email thread going about phils switch hitters of the last 20 years. Pretty short list we came up with. Let me know you guys can think of others.
rollins
victorino
gregg jefferies
tomas perez
michael martinez
hollins
stocker
morandini
steve jeltz
vicente padilla
this team's history really is horrendous.
morandini wasn't a switch hitter. i guess the close to thousand games he played for phils wasn't enough for you and your buddies to remember correctly :roll: :roll: :roll:
I can verify that, Mickey was favorite Philly for years.
Malfunction: Ryan Howard is leading the National League in RBIs, and he's on his way to another 30-homer season. Still, if you look a little deeper, the 31-year-old is having a disappointing campaign and a terrible July, with just a .548 OPS in 14 games this month. That's a small sample size, but Howard's decline has been nearly linear: Beginning in 2006, his MVP campaign, his yearly OPS has been the following: 1.084, .976, .881, .931, .859, .795. This would all be worrisome in itself, but his contract makes it positively frightening. Starting next year, the Phillies owe him $125 million through 2016. Is Ryan Howard's bat turning from elite to ordinary?
Diagnosis: Ryan Howard has been one of the ultimate touchstones for the debate about just how useful RBIs are in measuring a hitter's value. The sabermetric answer, of course, is "not very." RBI totals have much more to do with a hitter's teammates — the ones who got on base in order to be driven in — than with the one driving them in.
As Joe Posnanski wrote a week ago:
Howard leads all of baseball with 296 runners on base. He had an amazing 60 game-stretch recently when he hit .223 … and he still drove in 47 runs in those 60 games.
But a low batting average is the least of it. Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley lays out the statistics of the matter: Ryan Howard is in the process of posting career lows in Isolated Power, Weighted On-Base Average, and hitting against left-handed pitchers.
The drop in Isolated Power — a measure of a hitter's ability to hit for extra bases, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage — has been particularly precipitous, declining from a spectacular .346 in 2006 to a more ordinary .207 in 2011, lower than his teammate Shane Victorino(notes). Moreover, the collapse in his platoon splits suggests that Howard, who only has a .637 OPS against southpaws this year, may need to be removed from his everyday role when a left-hander is on the mound. Weighted On-Base Average is an overall measure of offensive performance, sort of like a more advanced version of OPS — another measure in which he's posting a career low.
The drop in his Isolated Power is particularly salient for a power hitter like Howard: It's 40 percent lower this year than it was when he won his MVP. But his walk rate this year has declined by nearly a quarter, from 15.3 percent in 2006 to 11.7 percent this year. (He has also cut his strikeouts, but not by quite as much.) If that weren't enough, Fangraphs has Howard as a below-average baserunner and below-average fielder.
That said, Howard is a notorious second-half hitter. For his career, he has an .867 OPS in the first half and a 1.007 OPS in the second half. So it's very possible that he'll catch fire for the rest of the summer and post the kind of numbers we got used to seeing from him before his injury-shortened 2010. However, I noted Howard's traditional second-half bounce in Slumpbot last June, and Howard proceeded to produce an .858 OPS in the second half after posting an .859 OPS in the first half. So it's quite likely that Howard's problems — especially his declining power and walks — are caused by something other than the calendar.
Reboot Directions: Ryan Howard is still a pretty good hitter, particularly in a year in which offense is down across the league. But he isn't very good, and his power has been on a linear decline for six years. Even if his Batting Average on Balls in Play climbs up 34 points to reach his career average, that overall decline is almost sure to continue.
I swear I didn't write this article.
2 extra base hits in july :roll:
You didn't write the article but I think you commented below it...
Great article. I'm a huge Phillies fan and I've been raving to my friends about how Ryan Howard is bad for years now. The worst part is his ridiculous contract. He's not even a top 10 first baseman, but he's one of the highest paid players in the league. Absolutely ridiculous.
Ha. Not me, but that guy knows what he's talking about
That's a good question, I don't know, I'd have to think about that one
I wouldn't give them much,maybe Singelton. I'm not giving them Worley or Brown. Worley might be pitching over his head but he'd be a nice #4 at a cheap price for yrs. Especially if we have to pay Hamels 20+ still. Brown i'd only move for Pence. I'm not giving a div rival a young stud for 2 months of help.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
That's a good question, I don't know, I'd have to think about that one
I wouldn't give them much,maybe Singelton. I'm not giving them Worley or Brown. Worley might be pitching over his head but he'd be a nice #4 at a cheap price for yrs. Especially if we have to pay Hamels 20+ still. Brown i'd only move for Pence. I'm not giving a div rival a young stud for 2 months of help.
I'd give them Worley in a second, but not Brown. They'd be buying high on Worley, and as I heard someone say earlier you're giving up a #4 starter in your rotation possibly next year, or a long man in the pen during the playoffs for a guy who will be in your line up EVERY GAME in the playoffs while providing power behind Howard. I'd do it in a heartbeat.
That's a good question, I don't know, I'd have to think about that one
I wouldn't give them much,maybe Singelton. I'm not giving them Worley or Brown. Worley might be pitching over his head but he'd be a nice #4 at a cheap price for yrs. Especially if we have to pay Hamels 20+ still. Brown i'd only move for Pence. I'm not giving a div rival a young stud for 2 months of help.
I'd give them Worley in a second, but not Brown. They'd be buying high on Worley, and as I heard someone say earlier you're giving up a #4 starter in your rotation possibly next year, or a long man in the pen during the playoffs for a guy who will be in your line up EVERY GAME in the playoffs while providing power behind Howard. I'd do it in a heartbeat.
agreed. worley is ja happ. a bit better than happ actually, but still, it's about the same scenario. can always find guys to fill the back end of a rotation that will be top heavy with 3 aces.
I'm not so sure I would say Worley is a JA Happ. I think we might be underestimating this young man. I know it's early, but I just have a feeling about him.
I'm not saying I wouldn't give him up for anything, but I sure would think hard about it before I did.
Giving away a young pitcher who has looked good against division teams even after facing them multiply times would be a mistake. Especially when ur keeping him in ARE division. If we were getting a player from another Division i'd think about it,but keeping him in the East would be dumb.
I wouldn't give them much,maybe Singelton. I'm not giving them Worley or Brown. Worley might be pitching over his head but he'd be a nice #4 at a cheap price for yrs. Especially if we have to pay Hamels 20+ still. Brown i'd only move for Pence. I'm not giving a div rival a young stud for 2 months of help.
I'd give them Worley in a second, but not Brown. They'd be buying high on Worley, and as I heard someone say earlier you're giving up a #4 starter in your rotation possibly next year, or a long man in the pen during the playoffs for a guy who will be in your line up EVERY GAME in the playoffs while providing power behind Howard. I'd do it in a heartbeat.
agreed. worley is ja happ. a bit better than happ actually, but still, it's about the same scenario. can always find guys to fill the back end of a rotation that will be top heavy with 3 aces.
i'd rather do this for pence though.
As would I, but there's no way Houston would do that. Maybe they'd do Worley and Cosart, but not Worley alone.
People like to fall in love with nobody's quickly in this city. WORLEY FOR CY YOUNG!! Christ, he's a #4 for a legit 5 hole hitter to help us win a championship today.
Giving away a young pitcher who has looked good against division teams even after facing them multiply times would be a mistake. Especially when ur keeping him in ARE division. If we were getting a player from another Division i'd think about it,but keeping him in the East would be dumb.
It's OUR.
I'm torn on the Worley debate. I don't feel like going against him in our division though.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I'd give them Worley in a second, but not Brown. They'd be buying high on Worley, and as I heard someone say earlier you're giving up a #4 starter in your rotation possibly next year, or a long man in the pen during the playoffs for a guy who will be in your line up EVERY GAME in the playoffs while providing power behind Howard. I'd do it in a heartbeat.
agreed. worley is ja happ. a bit better than happ actually, but still, it's about the same scenario. can always find guys to fill the back end of a rotation that will be top heavy with 3 aces.
i'd rather do this for pence though.
As would I, but there's no way Houston would do that. Maybe they'd do Worley and Cosart, but not Worley alone.
People like to fall in love with nobody's quickly in this city. WORLEY FOR CY YOUNG!! Christ, he's a #4 for a legit 5 hole hitter to help us win a championship today.
i guess i misread what you wrote. yeah, i'm assuming it will take worley and cosart. or worley and singleton. i would do that all day.
Typing fast no excuse, but i hardly reread what i type when at work.
okay
That's how you always type it.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Comments
worley has been up for approx 2 months. that doesn't mean much.
It's all about winning this year. Giving worley up isn't exactly giving the farm away. he's certainly not a guy that would be a deal breaker at this point
Your last line is absurd. Are you drunk?
I have no idea where the M's came from. I have seen the phils linked to brandon league, but they're not giving up singleton for him
I swear I didn't write this article.
2 extra base hits in july :roll:
Last year Melky's ops+ was 81 over a full season. So far this year much better though, which I didn't realize.
Strangely I am not drunk, but very tired. Time for bed.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
You didn't write the article but I think you commented below it...
Great article. I'm a huge Phillies fan and I've been raving to my friends about how Ryan Howard is bad for years now. The worst part is his ridiculous contract. He's not even a top 10 first baseman, but he's one of the highest paid players in the league. Absolutely ridiculous.
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
...braves lose again :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:
morandini wasn't a switch hitter. i guess the close to thousand games he played for phils wasn't enough for you and your buddies to remember correctly :roll: :roll: :roll:
and how can you forget reuben (total package) amaro
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I can verify that, Mickey was favorite Philly for years.
Ha. Not me, but that guy knows what he's talking about
That's a good question, I don't know, I'd have to think about that one
How about Rizzotti.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I'd give them Worley in a second, but not Brown. They'd be buying high on Worley, and as I heard someone say earlier you're giving up a #4 starter in your rotation possibly next year, or a long man in the pen during the playoffs for a guy who will be in your line up EVERY GAME in the playoffs while providing power behind Howard. I'd do it in a heartbeat.
agreed. worley is ja happ. a bit better than happ actually, but still, it's about the same scenario. can always find guys to fill the back end of a rotation that will be top heavy with 3 aces.
i'd rather do this for pence though.
I'm not saying I wouldn't give him up for anything, but I sure would think hard about it before I did.
As would I, but there's no way Houston would do that. Maybe they'd do Worley and Cosart, but not Worley alone.
People like to fall in love with nobody's quickly in this city. WORLEY FOR CY YOUNG!! Christ, he's a #4 for a legit 5 hole hitter to help us win a championship today.
It's OUR.
I'm torn on the Worley debate. I don't feel like going against him in our division though.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Thank. You.
i guess i misread what you wrote. yeah, i'm assuming it will take worley and cosart. or worley and singleton. i would do that all day.
"are." ....
http://www.the700level.com/07/20/11/Dou ... 10&qv=1#bp
clearly doug's in mid-season form.
okay
That's how you always type it.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16