Not sure I agree with everything here, but I think this is an interesting read. I definitely agree that the braves are a more complete team than the phils.
Since the calendar turned to May, the Atlanta Braves have been the hottest team in baseball, winning 12 out of 17 games after going just 13-15 through the end of April. The combination of that streak and the Philadelphia Phillies' recent stumbles -- including a series loss to Atlanta this past weekend -- was enough to bump the Braves to the top of this week's NL Hit List, our weekly power rankings at Baseball Prospectus. That's fairly unusual for a team that nonetheless sits in third place in its division, 2 1/2 games out of first. Just what in the name of Larry Wayne Jones is going on?
At its most basic -- which is already pretty complex -- the Hit List is based on an objective formula which averages a team's actual winning percentage and three projected winning percentages from our Adjusted Standings which are derived from runs scored and runs allowed via a variant of the Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula:
• First-order winning percentage is computed using actual runs scored and allowed.
• Second-order winning percentage uses equivalent runs scored and allowed, based on run elements (hits, walks, total bases, stolen bases, etc.) and adjustments for park and league scoring environment.
• Third-order winning percentage adjusts for the quality of opponent's hitting and pitching that each team faces.
The reason for incorporating all of this data into the Hit List is that run scoring and run prevention give us a better indication of a team's strength going forward than their actual record does, and using all four percentages is a way to correct for teams that over- or underperform relative to the various areas examined. Momentum has nothing to do with estimating team strength; studies show that recent history based upon a handful of days or weeks is less predictive of a team's future performance than season-to-date indicators, and that the use of multiple projected winning percentages is more predictive than relying upon just one.
Checking in on the Braves (25-19 through Tuesday), their .619 first-order winning percentage, based on 183 runs scored and 139 allowed, is 2.3 wins above their actual record. That winning percentage and their plus-44 run differential are NL bests, 20 points and 10 runs better than the Phillies -- a good clue that they belong atop the rankings. Such discrepancies are often tied to performances in one-run games and in blowouts; indeed, the Braves are just 6-7 in the former, but 8-2 in games decided by five or more runs, outscoring their opponents by 41 runs (65-24) in such affairs. Even there, they're falling shy of their runaway MLB-best .861 expected winning percentage in such games. In other words, they're not converting as many of those runs to wins as you'd expect, though over time we expect them to.
The Braves' .651 second-order winning percentage is 3.7 wins above their actual record. They've scored three runs more than expected based upon their hits walks, total bases and other events, but they've allowed 13 more than expected. Such discrepancies are often tied to better- or worse-than-expected performances in higher-leverage situations; scouring the team's splits -- where admittedly, cherrypicking opportunities abound -- we find, for example, that with men on base, the Braves' staff has yielded an OPS that's 49 point higher than with the bases empty, a discrepancy more than three times the major league average. That probably won't continue.
Looking at their staff's performance broken into low, medium, and high-leverage situations, which account for inning and score margin, it turns out that the Braves are 85 points of OPS better than average in high-leverage situations, 75 points better in medium-leverage situations, and 148 points better in low-leverage situations. In other words, a disproportionate amount of the good work they're doing isn't translating to wins and losses, because it's happening in games that are essentially decided.
As for their third-order percentage of .659, 101 points (4.0 wins) above their actual record, the Braves get additional credit because the opponents they've faced have accumulated a .264 True Average and a .263 True Average allowed, so their already-widening run differential from the second-order adjustments inches upwards slightly. Throw in their preseason PECOTA-projected winning percentage (.538) and their overall Adjusted Hit List Factor comes out to .592, 19 points ahead of the Phillies. Which is our way of saying that all things considered, the Braves appear to be something closer to a .600 ballclub than a .568 one, while the Phillies, who are winning at a .610 clip, aren't quite that good.
Extrapolating from their current performances, the implication is that over time we expect the two teams to swap places in the NL East standings. Of course, each team's performance in those areas is itself made up of numerous small-sample showings by individual players likely to produce closer to their career norms (Dan Uggla probably won't hit .196/.270/.375 all season long, and Jair Jurrjens won't post a 1.66 ERA) or be displaced by other players (Freddie Freeman won't survive hitting .226/.321/.358, and soon enough, the Phillies' second base fill-ins"hitting" .230/.282/.288will be replaced by Chase Utley, now rehabbing and hopefully back by month's end). Still, this is our best estimate of current team quality, and it shows the Braves as the better team.
your language is also offense. tone it down please.
I'm just looking forward to more ricky bo quotes
has he ever said anything as dumb as these?
1) the phils are better off with ross gload at 1st base than ryan howard
2) i'd rather have dan carcillo in the lineup than jeff carter
3) the flyers goaltending has been as good as Ryan Miller in this series
meanwhile you love to spew 5th tier blogs with stupid stats - and a person who has said WINS and RUNS don't matter
:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
i just hope the phils can have a good OBP and tonight's game doesnt affect their WAR too much. Winning doesn't matter. and of course I know it means nothing tomorrow since Halladay is pitching. I wonder if Vegas will pull the spread on tomorrow's game, you know since it doesn't matter if Halladay wins or not
your language is also offense. tone it down please.
I'm just looking forward to more ricky bo quotes
has he ever said anything as dumb as these?
1) the phils are better off with ross gload at 1st base than ryan howard
2) i'd rather have dan carcillo in the lineup than jeff carter
3) the flyers goaltending has been as good as Ryan Miller in this series
meanwhile you love to spew 5th tier blogs with stupid stats - and a person who has said WINS and RUNS don't matter
:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
The stat he often uses to judge a player is stricly about wins.
Edit: Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and Keith Law are about the complete opposite of 5th tier blogs.
your language is also offense. tone it down please.
I'm just looking forward to more ricky bo quotes
has he ever said anything as dumb as these?
1) the phils are better off with ross gload at 1st base than ryan howard
2) i'd rather have dan carcillo in the lineup than jeff carter
3) the flyers goaltending has been as good as Ryan Miller in this series
meanwhile you love to spew 5th tier blogs with stupid stats - and a person who has said WINS and RUNS don't matter
:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
i just hope the phils can have a good OBP and tonight's game doesnt affect their WAR too much. Winning doesn't matter. and of course I know it means nothing tomorrow since Halladay is pitching. I wonder if Vegas will pull the spread on tomorrow's game, you know since it doesn't matter if Halladay wins or not
I'd rather have you in the lineup over jeff carter
never said the flyers goalies were better than miller.
votto is better than howard. rico brogna was a decent player. halladay hasnt been good enough because he lost 2 fucking games. ricky bo quotes.
just step back and listen to yourself for a second. then hopefully you will realize how dumb you sound.
1)I'd rather have you in the lineup over jeff carter
2) never said the flyers goalies were better than miller.
3)A)votto is better than howard. B)rico brogna was a decent player. C)halladay hasnt been good enough because he lost 2 fucking games. D)ricky bo quotes.
just step back and listen to yourself for a second. then hopefully you will realize how dumb you sound.
1 - of course don't you know i am a stud at all sports and everything i do
2 - you said they were playing 'as well as ryan miller' - please read EXACTLY what i wrote to dispute it. if you can't even repeat what i said accurately how can anyone take your rebuttle seriously.
3 - A) over the last year and half sure, but that doesn't make ryan bad or diminish what he has done for this franchise. he was. C) in those 2 games nope he wasn't, doesn't mean over a year and half i think that. don't take a comment about a few games and try and use it out over a year and a half (you tried to do the same thing last year to me as well) D) again read EXACTLY what i wrote. ONE quote not QUOTES. do you need a definition of accuracy next?
You guys never cease to outdo yourselves in this thread. Amazing. Keep up the great work. Love the passion and the hatred.
Madson is a beast.
"FF, I've heard the droning about the Sawx being the baby dolls. Yeah, I get it, you guys invented baseball and suffered forever. I get it." -JearlPam0925
I LOVE THIS THREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PJ should bring us all together and have us open for them for PJ20. can you imagine Fixer and I across from each other on stage arguing? pure gold
It might get ugly,lol. On a good note my heart doctor gave me my latest (ecko)ultrasound of my heart results today. My Heart although still in A-fib is working as a normal health organ again. A normal heart works between 50-60% i was in the low 20's in november,35% in January and as of the 17th im between 55-60%. I went from a very strong heart transplant candidate in November to a pace make candidate in january to a normal heart. Mind blowing shit i tell ya
I LOVE THIS THREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PJ should bring us all together and have us open for them for PJ20. can you imagine Fixer and I across from each other on stage arguing? pure gold
It might get ugly,lol. On a good note my heart doctor gave me my latest (ecko)ultrasound of my heart results today. My Heart although still in A-fib is working as a normal health organ again. A normal heart works between 50-60% i was in the low 20's in november,35% in January and as of the 17th im between 55-60%. I went from a very strong heart transplant candidate in November to a pace make candidate in january to a normal heart. Mind blowing shit i tell ya :roll:
awesome news man. hope you keep progressing. will you be able to resume activities like drinking in the future? i'm sure you will have to be pretty cognizant of it the rest of your life though. hopefully won't have to totally cut out too many fun things.
I go monday to hear all the details,my inr is getting close to were i can get julted back into normal rhythm. As for drinking and eating good shit food again ill never go back to my old life style again. But i will enjoy some of lifes perks again.
"FF, I've heard the droning about the Sawx being the baby dolls. Yeah, I get it, you guys invented baseball and suffered forever. I get it." -JearlPam0925
Roy Halladay should be pitching for the Lakewood Blue Claws.
Really? :P
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Great to hear the good news! Keep it to a couple drinks, and all should be good, hopefully.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I go monday to hear all the details,my inr is getting close to were i can get julted back into normal rhythm. As for drinking and eating good shit food again ill never go back to my old life style again. But i will enjoy some of lifes perks again.
Congrats dude!
My drinking team has a hockey problem
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
Blanton should have been shut down and Worley should have been pitching tonight. The way they've handled things this year regarding injuries is horrendous.
Blanton should have been shut down and Worley should have been pitching tonight. The way they've handled things this year regarding injuries is horrendous.
Yeah..if Blanton's elbow is that sore still keep him on the DL
My drinking team has a hockey problem
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
Comments
I'm just looking forward to more ricky bo quotes
Since the calendar turned to May, the Atlanta Braves have been the hottest team in baseball, winning 12 out of 17 games after going just 13-15 through the end of April. The combination of that streak and the Philadelphia Phillies' recent stumbles -- including a series loss to Atlanta this past weekend -- was enough to bump the Braves to the top of this week's NL Hit List, our weekly power rankings at Baseball Prospectus. That's fairly unusual for a team that nonetheless sits in third place in its division, 2 1/2 games out of first. Just what in the name of Larry Wayne Jones is going on?
At its most basic -- which is already pretty complex -- the Hit List is based on an objective formula which averages a team's actual winning percentage and three projected winning percentages from our Adjusted Standings which are derived from runs scored and runs allowed via a variant of the Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula:
• First-order winning percentage is computed using actual runs scored and allowed.
• Second-order winning percentage uses equivalent runs scored and allowed, based on run elements (hits, walks, total bases, stolen bases, etc.) and adjustments for park and league scoring environment.
• Third-order winning percentage adjusts for the quality of opponent's hitting and pitching that each team faces.
The reason for incorporating all of this data into the Hit List is that run scoring and run prevention give us a better indication of a team's strength going forward than their actual record does, and using all four percentages is a way to correct for teams that over- or underperform relative to the various areas examined. Momentum has nothing to do with estimating team strength; studies show that recent history based upon a handful of days or weeks is less predictive of a team's future performance than season-to-date indicators, and that the use of multiple projected winning percentages is more predictive than relying upon just one.
Checking in on the Braves (25-19 through Tuesday), their .619 first-order winning percentage, based on 183 runs scored and 139 allowed, is 2.3 wins above their actual record. That winning percentage and their plus-44 run differential are NL bests, 20 points and 10 runs better than the Phillies -- a good clue that they belong atop the rankings. Such discrepancies are often tied to performances in one-run games and in blowouts; indeed, the Braves are just 6-7 in the former, but 8-2 in games decided by five or more runs, outscoring their opponents by 41 runs (65-24) in such affairs. Even there, they're falling shy of their runaway MLB-best .861 expected winning percentage in such games. In other words, they're not converting as many of those runs to wins as you'd expect, though over time we expect them to.
The Braves' .651 second-order winning percentage is 3.7 wins above their actual record. They've scored three runs more than expected based upon their hits walks, total bases and other events, but they've allowed 13 more than expected. Such discrepancies are often tied to better- or worse-than-expected performances in higher-leverage situations; scouring the team's splits -- where admittedly, cherrypicking opportunities abound -- we find, for example, that with men on base, the Braves' staff has yielded an OPS that's 49 point higher than with the bases empty, a discrepancy more than three times the major league average. That probably won't continue.
Looking at their staff's performance broken into low, medium, and high-leverage situations, which account for inning and score margin, it turns out that the Braves are 85 points of OPS better than average in high-leverage situations, 75 points better in medium-leverage situations, and 148 points better in low-leverage situations. In other words, a disproportionate amount of the good work they're doing isn't translating to wins and losses, because it's happening in games that are essentially decided.
As for their third-order percentage of .659, 101 points (4.0 wins) above their actual record, the Braves get additional credit because the opponents they've faced have accumulated a .264 True Average and a .263 True Average allowed, so their already-widening run differential from the second-order adjustments inches upwards slightly. Throw in their preseason PECOTA-projected winning percentage (.538) and their overall Adjusted Hit List Factor comes out to .592, 19 points ahead of the Phillies. Which is our way of saying that all things considered, the Braves appear to be something closer to a .600 ballclub than a .568 one, while the Phillies, who are winning at a .610 clip, aren't quite that good.
Extrapolating from their current performances, the implication is that over time we expect the two teams to swap places in the NL East standings. Of course, each team's performance in those areas is itself made up of numerous small-sample showings by individual players likely to produce closer to their career norms (Dan Uggla probably won't hit .196/.270/.375 all season long, and Jair Jurrjens won't post a 1.66 ERA) or be displaced by other players (Freddie Freeman won't survive hitting .226/.321/.358, and soon enough, the Phillies' second base fill-ins"hitting" .230/.282/.288will be replaced by Chase Utley, now rehabbing and hopefully back by month's end). Still, this is our best estimate of current team quality, and it shows the Braves as the better team.
has he ever said anything as dumb as these?
1) the phils are better off with ross gload at 1st base than ryan howard
2) i'd rather have dan carcillo in the lineup than jeff carter
3) the flyers goaltending has been as good as Ryan Miller in this series
meanwhile you love to spew 5th tier blogs with stupid stats - and a person who has said WINS and RUNS don't matter
:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
i just hope the phils can have a good OBP and tonight's game doesnt affect their WAR too much. Winning doesn't matter. and of course I know it means nothing tomorrow since Halladay is pitching. I wonder if Vegas will pull the spread on tomorrow's game, you know since it doesn't matter if Halladay wins or not
The stat he often uses to judge a player is stricly about wins.
Edit: Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and Keith Law are about the complete opposite of 5th tier blogs.
I'd rather have you in the lineup over jeff carter
never said the flyers goalies were better than miller.
votto is better than howard. rico brogna was a decent player. halladay hasnt been good enough because he lost 2 fucking games. ricky bo quotes.
just step back and listen to yourself for a second. then hopefully you will realize how dumb you sound.
1 - of course don't you know i am a stud at all sports and everything i do
2 - you said they were playing 'as well as ryan miller' - please read EXACTLY what i wrote to dispute it. if you can't even repeat what i said accurately how can anyone take your rebuttle seriously.
3 - A) over the last year and half sure, but that doesn't make ryan bad or diminish what he has done for this franchise.
PJ should bring us all together and have us open for them for PJ20. can you imagine Fixer and I across from each other on stage arguing? pure gold
Madson is a beast.
awesome news man. hope you keep progressing. will you be able to resume activities like drinking in the future? i'm sure you will have to be pretty cognizant of it the rest of your life though. hopefully won't have to totally cut out too many fun things.
Really? :P
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Great to hear the good news! Keep it to a couple drinks, and all should be good, hopefully.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Congrats dude!
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
:x
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
thats their only hope
:(
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
:roll: :roll: :roll:
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
Tuesday's game ?
Horrible
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
I think he has more HR's this game then the Phils do this month
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
Unbelievable
These are the games I usually end up at
:(
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
Yeah..if Blanton's elbow is that sore still keep him on the DL
The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill
A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers