August 10, 2010
The benefits of Roy OswaltHe's a big upgrade over Jamie Moyer; add health and the Phillies are quite aliveEmail
By Tommy Bennett
Baseball Prospectus
Getty Images
Roy Halladay hasn't tasted playoff baseball. There's a good chance he will in 2010.
On the morning of July 22, Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds for the Philadelphia Phillies hovered just above 10 percent; now, with mid-August approaching, they odds are a little over 46 percent.
The Phillies are 1½ games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and on the heels of the San Francisco Giants in the wild-card race.
The 2009 Phillies won Baseball Prospectus' Dick Martin award for the healthiest team in baseball; the story of the 2010 edition has been the exact opposite: Philadelphia has lost stars Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino to injury.
With just over 50 games to play, the question remains: Can the Phillies get Roy Halladay to the postseason for the first time and make their run at the Big Red Machine in terms of three consecutive NL pennants?
Their luck may be turning a corner. Not only are the Phillies 14-3 since July 22, but Victorino (rehabbing a strained abdomen) may return by the weekend. Howard (who suffered a sprained left ankle) is eligible to return Aug. 17 and will likely be in the lineup before September. Utley, out with a thumb injury since late June, will likely return in early September. Each of those players has been above average offensively this year. Utley ranks second on the team in True Average (a measure of overall offensive production) at .305, and Howard follows closely behind at .302. Victorino, in addition to his fine defense in center field, ranks as one of the 10 most valuable baserunners in the game. With all three back in the lineup for a pennant race, the Phillies stand to improve as a team.
The Phillies' rotation is also solid. Cole Hamels is pitching very well, Halladay is a stud, and Roy Oswalt essentially replaces Jamie Moyer (out for the season). Before his departure, Moyer posted a SIERA (a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself is) of 4.42. By contrast, Oswalt's mark was nearly a full run lower, at 3.46. With about 10 more starts to go, the difference between Oswalt and Moyer should net the Phillies about one extra win.
The Phillies' schedule also provides relief. The team will play a majority (57 percent) of its remaining games at home, where it is 36-19 (compared to 26-30 on the road). The Phillies' remaining opponents collectively play slightly below average offense for the league (by True Average); their opponents also have a slightly below average pitchers' strikeout rate and a worse than average unintentional walk rate. That doesn't mean the schedule is a cakewalk -- the Phillies play 24 games in 23 days in one stretch -- but it gives them a good chance at hunting the Braves and Giants (they have three left versus the Giants and six left versus the Braves, with those six being split -- three home and three away; the season ends with three games between the Braves and Phillies).
The most heartening thing is this: since 2007, the Phillies are 52-35 (.598 win percentage) in September and October. With three All-Stars set to return from the DL, a new ace in the fold and relatively soft schedule, the Phillies should have the wind at their backs from here on out.
Tommy Bennett is an author of Baseball Prospectus who frequently writes for ESPN Insider
Even with 2008 NLCS MVP chad billingsley pitching tomorrow, the phils pitching matchups in the LA series are unfavorable. Need to keep things rolling and take 2 of 3. I think it's gonna be tough, even though the dodgers aren't playing well right now.
hopefully the boys can make up some ground tonight.
go astros
go cubs
go pirates
go rocks (just because I hate the stinkin mets)
I also think it would be cool to see cincy get swept...hopefully sending them into a prolonged slump.
Even with 2008 NLCS MVP chad billingsley pitching tomorrow, the phils pitching matchups in the LA series are unfavorable. Need to keep things rolling and take 2 of 3. I think it's gonna be tough, even though the dodgers aren't playing well right now.
hopefully the boys can make up some ground tonight.
go astros
go cubs
go pirates
go rocks (just because I hate the stinkin mets)
I also think it would be cool to see cincy get swept...hopefully sending them into a prolonged slump.
and of course GO PHILS
So quoting yourself these days? Nice.
allow myself to introduce...myself. I'm richie cunningham. and this is my wife...oprah
you gentlemen got your brooms handy? i'll say it again--this schedule coming up is real favorable. i think we're in the beginning of a 15 out of 20-ish (that's a big ish) run...
GO PHILS.
since then we've gone 10-3 and have won 14 out of 17 all together.
if anyone is looking for this week's powerball #"s, shoot me a pm
this team is unbelievable resilient. winning without howard and something like 21-13 without utley now. we should have everyone back by the end of the month....
you gentlemen got your brooms handy? i'll say it again--this schedule coming up is real favorable. i think we're in the beginning of a 15 out of 20-ish (that's a big ish) run...
GO PHILS.
since then we've gone 10-3 and have won 14 out of 17 all together.
if anyone is looking for this week's powerball #"s, shoot me a pm
this team is unbelievable resilient. winning without howard and something like 21-13 without utley now. we should have everyone back by the end of the month....
let's go make history gentlemen....
GO PHILS!!!!!
to be fair you also said I was crazy when I predicted the phils would go 8-4 without black jared (they are 5-1)
you gentlemen got your brooms handy? i'll say it again--this schedule coming up is real favorable. i think we're in the beginning of a 15 out of 20-ish (that's a big ish) run...
GO PHILS.
since then we've gone 10-3 and have won 14 out of 17 all together.
if anyone is looking for this week's powerball #"s, shoot me a pm
this team is unbelievable resilient. winning without howard and something like 21-13 without utley now. we should have everyone back by the end of the month....
let's go make history gentlemen....
GO PHILS!!!!!
to be fair you also said I was crazy when I predicted the phils would go 8-4 without black jared (they are 5-1)
yeah well i think you said they couldn't win when utley went down.
i said we cannot win for a prolonged period of time without the r6 and i stand by that. the role players and backups usually look good for a week or two and then they fall back to earth. we're also right smack in the middle of the easiest part of the schedule too which plays a big factor. thankfully he should be back next week.
still it's amazing how this bench has really stepped up. it looked like such a weak spot just a few months ago. but with the sweeney trade, and how much time these guys have gotten lately, its turned into a strength. ibanez playing well again helps too. i would think they'll toss dom brown back down once shane is ready this weekend. but having him for the stretch run in a few weeks, after getting a taste of it, is a huge plus.
yeah well i think you said they couldn't win when utley went down.
i said we cannot win for a prolonged period of time without the r6 and i stand by that. the role players and backups usually look good for a week or two and then they fall back to earth. we're also right smack in the middle of the easiest part of the schedule too which plays a big factor. thankfully he should be back next week.
still it's amazing how this bench has really stepped up. it looked like such a weak spot just a few months ago. but with the sweeney trade, and how much time these guys have gotten lately, its turned into a strength. ibanez playing well again helps too. i would think they'll toss dom brown back down once shane is ready this weekend. but having him for the stretch run in a few weeks, after getting a taste of it, is a huge plus.
I would never say that. definitely not. I probably said something like 'it is gonna be tough to win without their best player'. but i'd never say they were done for the season in the beginning of july
just gotta survive for the next 2-3 weeks. then make the push in september
I was hammered as all Hell at the game on Sunday. When Special Sauce would come up to bat I would start yelling, "I LIKE COLD BEVERAGES!"
that's great. I don't care what anyone says...gload has been money
I was destroyed at the game friday night. we were calling angel pagan - anal pagan. nope, I'm not very mature
I know I'm feeling it when I even let the Phillies Phan Photo people take my picture. Well, that, and a post-game trip to Risque'. It was quite the day.
I was hammered as all Hell at the game on Sunday. When Special Sauce would come up to bat I would start yelling, "I LIKE COLD BEVERAGES!"
that's great. I don't care what anyone says...gload has been money
I was destroyed at the game friday night. we were calling angel pagan - anal pagan. nope, I'm not very mature
philly fans are the worst....
so true. I wasn't out of control. Just some playful heckling. I wasn't being that guy.
probably qualifies me as a hypocrite...oh well
I stand by the stance that phils games are a lot less fun than 2008 and prior. the fan suckdom started last year and has gotten worse this year (people were yelling at me to sit during playoff games last year...ridiculous)
yeah well i think you said they couldn't win when utley went down.
i said we cannot win for a prolonged period of time without the r6 and i stand by that. the role players and backups usually look good for a week or two and then they fall back to earth. we're also right smack in the middle of the easiest part of the schedule too which plays a big factor. thankfully he should be back next week.
still it's amazing how this bench has really stepped up. it looked like such a weak spot just a few months ago. but with the sweeney trade, and how much time these guys have gotten lately, its turned into a strength. ibanez playing well again helps too. i would think they'll toss dom brown back down once shane is ready this weekend. but having him for the stretch run in a few weeks, after getting a taste of it, is a huge plus.
I would never say that. definitely not. I probably said something like 'it is gonna be tough to win without their best player'. but i'd never say they were done for the season in the beginning of july
just gotta survive for the next 2-3 weeks. then make the push in september
i wasn't quoting you. you said something like they were in trouble and if anyone else goes down it will be a disaster. normally that would be the case though.
i think we'll be fine in the next few weeks with this cake schedule.
by the way, i think i get fat joe next wednesday. son of a bitch....
And playoff tickets need to be paid by the 2nd? What the fuck? A little more time would be nice. We don't even get the invoiced for another week. I better get a chance for tix to each series too.
by the way, i think i get fat joe next wednesday. son of a bitch....
that is fucking crazy if that happens. game on friday was same plan - blanton. game this thursday is same plan - blanton. 3 games in a row on the same plan with the same starting pitcher is unheard of. Full blown AIDS
And playoff tickets need to be paid by the 2nd? What the fuck? A little more time would be nice. We don't even get the invoiced for another week. I better get a chance for tix to each series too.
I thought the same thing when I got that email. Mother fuckers
Did Rollins get hurt tonight or something? Once it was 7-0, I took a much deserved nap.
And, sure, Kendrick will have a night here or there where he has a decent outing, but tonight is exactly why everyone should remember he's Kyle fucking Kendrick.
Offense showed up, too bad pitching didn't. Congrats to Dominaic for hitting his first HR Gload hitting 2 homers was pretty cool. Also sucks that the Braves won. Get him next time boys!
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly. PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
Did Rollins get hurt tonight or something? Once it was 7-0, I took a much deserved nap.
And, sure, Kendrick will have a night here or there where he has a decent outing, but tonight is exactly why everyone should remember he's Kyle fucking Kendrick.
Comments
August 10, 2010
The benefits of Roy OswaltHe's a big upgrade over Jamie Moyer; add health and the Phillies are quite aliveEmail
By Tommy Bennett
Baseball Prospectus
Getty Images
Roy Halladay hasn't tasted playoff baseball. There's a good chance he will in 2010.
On the morning of July 22, Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds for the Philadelphia Phillies hovered just above 10 percent; now, with mid-August approaching, they odds are a little over 46 percent.
The Phillies are 1½ games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and on the heels of the San Francisco Giants in the wild-card race.
The 2009 Phillies won Baseball Prospectus' Dick Martin award for the healthiest team in baseball; the story of the 2010 edition has been the exact opposite: Philadelphia has lost stars Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino to injury.
With just over 50 games to play, the question remains: Can the Phillies get Roy Halladay to the postseason for the first time and make their run at the Big Red Machine in terms of three consecutive NL pennants?
Their luck may be turning a corner. Not only are the Phillies 14-3 since July 22, but Victorino (rehabbing a strained abdomen) may return by the weekend. Howard (who suffered a sprained left ankle) is eligible to return Aug. 17 and will likely be in the lineup before September. Utley, out with a thumb injury since late June, will likely return in early September. Each of those players has been above average offensively this year. Utley ranks second on the team in True Average (a measure of overall offensive production) at .305, and Howard follows closely behind at .302. Victorino, in addition to his fine defense in center field, ranks as one of the 10 most valuable baserunners in the game. With all three back in the lineup for a pennant race, the Phillies stand to improve as a team.
The Phillies' rotation is also solid. Cole Hamels is pitching very well, Halladay is a stud, and Roy Oswalt essentially replaces Jamie Moyer (out for the season). Before his departure, Moyer posted a SIERA (a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself is) of 4.42. By contrast, Oswalt's mark was nearly a full run lower, at 3.46. With about 10 more starts to go, the difference between Oswalt and Moyer should net the Phillies about one extra win.
The Phillies' schedule also provides relief. The team will play a majority (57 percent) of its remaining games at home, where it is 36-19 (compared to 26-30 on the road). The Phillies' remaining opponents collectively play slightly below average offense for the league (by True Average); their opponents also have a slightly below average pitchers' strikeout rate and a worse than average unintentional walk rate. That doesn't mean the schedule is a cakewalk -- the Phillies play 24 games in 23 days in one stretch -- but it gives them a good chance at hunting the Braves and Giants (they have three left versus the Giants and six left versus the Braves, with those six being split -- three home and three away; the season ends with three games between the Braves and Phillies).
The most heartening thing is this: since 2007, the Phillies are 52-35 (.598 win percentage) in September and October. With three All-Stars set to return from the DL, a new ace in the fold and relatively soft schedule, the Phillies should have the wind at their backs from here on out.
Tommy Bennett is an author of Baseball Prospectus who frequently writes for ESPN Insider
So quoting yourself these days? Nice.
allow myself to introduce...myself. I'm richie cunningham. and this is my wife...oprah
No, no, but seriously - enough about me, what do you think of me?
on the morning of july 26th your jeagler uttered the following prediction:
since then we've gone 10-3 and have won 14 out of 17 all together.
if anyone is looking for this week's powerball #"s, shoot me a pm
this team is unbelievable resilient. winning without howard and something like 21-13 without utley now. we should have everyone back by the end of the month....
let's go make history gentlemen....
GO PHILS!!!!!
MUSH!
i hate that padilla
take emotion out of it when placing wagers.
And he's terrible at The Bank.
dodgers blow...phillies all over him tonight
to be fair you also said I was crazy when I predicted the phils would go 8-4 without black jared (they are 5-1)
did you see the phils lineup tonight? the one and only ross gload in the 3 hole. haha
what's the line? I'm guessing phils -150
I was hammered as all Hell at the game on Sunday. When Special Sauce would come up to bat I would start yelling, "I LIKE COLD BEVERAGES!"
yeah well i think you said they couldn't win when utley went down.
i said we cannot win for a prolonged period of time without the r6 and i stand by that. the role players and backups usually look good for a week or two and then they fall back to earth. we're also right smack in the middle of the easiest part of the schedule too which plays a big factor. thankfully he should be back next week.
still it's amazing how this bench has really stepped up. it looked like such a weak spot just a few months ago. but with the sweeney trade, and how much time these guys have gotten lately, its turned into a strength. ibanez playing well again helps too. i would think they'll toss dom brown back down once shane is ready this weekend. but having him for the stretch run in a few weeks, after getting a taste of it, is a huge plus.
that's great. I don't care what anyone says...gload has been money
I was destroyed at the game friday night. we were calling angel pagan - anal pagan. nope, I'm not very mature
I would never say that. definitely not. I probably said something like 'it is gonna be tough to win without their best player'. but i'd never say they were done for the season in the beginning of july
just gotta survive for the next 2-3 weeks. then make the push in september
I know I'm feeling it when I even let the Phillies Phan Photo people take my picture. Well, that, and a post-game trip to Risque'. It was quite the day.
philly fans are the worst....
Stick it in the fridge, stick it in the fridge, stick it in the fridge.
so true. I wasn't out of control. Just some playful heckling. I wasn't being that guy.
probably qualifies me as a hypocrite...oh well
I stand by the stance that phils games are a lot less fun than 2008 and prior. the fan suckdom started last year and has gotten worse this year (people were yelling at me to sit during playoff games last year...ridiculous)
i wasn't quoting you. you said something like they were in trouble and if anyone else goes down it will be a disaster. normally that would be the case though.
i think we'll be fine in the next few weeks with this cake schedule.
by the way, i think i get fat joe next wednesday. son of a bitch....
that is fucking crazy if that happens. game on friday was same plan - blanton. game this thursday is same plan - blanton. 3 games in a row on the same plan with the same starting pitcher is unheard of. Full blown AIDS
I thought the same thing when I got that email. Mother fuckers
oh, gload again. ryan who?
And, sure, Kendrick will have a night here or there where he has a decent outing, but tonight is exactly why everyone should remember he's Kyle fucking Kendrick.
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
did anyone forget??