***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

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  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    The Fixer wrote:
    Solat13 wrote:

    Was bored tonight so I did a little research with the top sluggers of the 4 best teams arguably since 2004 - Red Sox, Yankees, Phils and Cardinals. Between them they've won 5 of the last 6 World Series and went through game logs to see winning percentage in games in which their big slugger (Ortiz, A Rod, Howard and Pujols hit homers since 04 - for Howard 05) Not trying to prove anything - was just curious as to what were winning percentages when top sluggers homered for their teams.

    Boston - Ortiz:

    2004 41 homers 27-11
    2005 47 homers 24-13
    2006 54 homers 33-15
    2007 35 homers 23-8
    2008 23 homers 15-5
    2009 28 homers 23-4
    2010 15 homers 11-2

    Overall record 156-58 .729 winning percentage

    Yankees - A Rod:

    2004 36 homers 25-8
    2005 48 homers 31-12
    2006 35 homers 20-11
    2007 54 homers 35-11
    2008 35 homers 23-12
    2009 30 homers 20-7
    2010 8 homers 6-2

    Overall record 160-63 .717 winning percentage

    Phillies - Howard

    2005 22 homers - 16-6
    2006 58 homers - 32-18
    2007 47 homers - 27-15
    2008 48 homers - 26-17
    2009 45 homers - 26-13
    2010 14 homers - 11-2

    Overall record 138-71 .660 winning prcentage

    Cardinals - Pujols

    2004 46 homers - 32-9
    2005 41 homers - 29-10
    2006 49 homers - 32-12
    2007 32 homers - 16-12
    2008 37 homers - 25-9
    2009 47 homers - 30-6
    2010 15 homers - 8-3

    Overall record 172-61 .738 winning percentage

    I don't think there is a direct correlation here. Hitting a home run is one of numerous variables that goes in to winning a baseball game.

    For example, we could look at adam dunn's record every time he hits a home run. His teams' record would still suck in those games.

    One player hitting a home run and his team winning are virtually independent when discussing why teams win games


    Dunn who has played on much worse teams since 2004

    2004 - 46 homers - 25-16
    2005 - 40 homers - 25-9
    2006 - 40 homers - 25-14
    2007 - 40 homers - 19-17
    2008 - 40 homers - 24-14
    2009 - 38 homers - 22-14
    2010 - 16 homers - 9-6

    Total 149-90 - .623 winning percentage

    Just saw you mentioned Dunn and figured it would make for an interesting person to look up.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    jamminpearls wrote:
    And another thing if Howard does so many things bad then why is it that the Phillies and probably 10-15 other teams out there would have given him the same contract? And the other teams that wouldn't or couldn't already have a good first basemen or don't have the cash to do so. So the man was gonna get paid 20-25 from someone and I'm glad he stayed here and will likely retire a Phillie.

    Huh? You serious? 10-15 teams would give Ryan Howard $25 mil a year and the rest won't because they haev a 1st baseman? You're kidding right? Did you talk to GM's? Which teams are these?

    There's maybe 5 or 6 teams tops that can afford 25 million a year for one player and two were already off the market - the Red Sox with Youk and the Yanks with Tex. The Phils defintiely outbid themselves for Howard's contract but I've always thought that.

    I like Howard just not at that price though.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    again with the ryan howard talk? :roll:

    you guys are nuts.

    he's one of the best power hitters of our time...yet he has flaws...and is probably overpaid. end of story.

    let's focus on the real problems of this team because they are the same now as they were in april: starting pitching after top 2, the bullpen, and the bench.

    ryan howard is the least of our concerns people...
    www.myspace.com
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,026
    Solat13 wrote:
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    jamminpearls wrote:
    And another thing if Howard does so many things bad then why is it that the Phillies and probably 10-15 other teams out there would have given him the same contract? And the other teams that wouldn't or couldn't already have a good first basemen or don't have the cash to do so. So the man was gonna get paid 20-25 from someone and I'm glad he stayed here and will likely retire a Phillie.

    Huh? You serious? 10-15 teams would give Ryan Howard $25 mil a year and the rest won't because they haev a 1st baseman? You're kidding right? Did you talk to GM's? Which teams are these?

    There's maybe 5 or 6 teams tops that can afford 25 million a year for one player and two were already off the market - the Red Sox with Youk and the Yanks with Tex. The Phils defintiely outbid themselves for Howard's contract but I've always thought that.

    I like Howard just not at that price though.

    Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies

    Dodgers would be able to but with that situation they are not adding payroll.

    Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers are all out.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,528
    The Jeagler wrote:
    again with the ryan howard talk? :roll:

    you guys are nuts.

    he's one of the best power hitters of our time...yet he has flaws...and is probably overpaid. end of story.

    let's focus on the real problems of this team because they are the same now as they were in april: starting pitching after top 2, the bullpen, and the bench.

    ryan howard is the least of our concerns people...

    Pitching gets pass for as long as these douchebags decide not to hit. It has been outstanding compared to what we thought it would be. The bullpen hasn't even had a chance to settle in to a groove. Hitting is the problem here first and foremost.
  • jamminpearls
    jamminpearls Posts: 7,078
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    jamminpearls wrote:
    And another thing if Howard does so many things bad then why is it that the Phillies and probably 10-15 other teams out there would have given him the same contract? And the other teams that wouldn't or couldn't already have a good first basemen or don't have the cash to do so. So the man was gonna get paid 20-25 from someone and I'm glad he stayed here and will likely retire a Phillie.

    Huh? You serious? 10-15 teams would give Ryan Howard $25 mil a year and the rest won't because they haev a 1st baseman? You're kidding right? Did you talk to GM's? Which teams are these?
    I'd bet if the yanks didn't have tex they would,I'd bet boston would.Even with Ike I'd bet the mets would,if stl didn't have pujulos I'd bet they would. I forget but buster olney said something a while back that Howard would have had 10-15 teams after him if he hit free agency. And it might have been jayson stark I forget,but yeah I'm sure gms would pay 20-25 mill for a guy that gives u 45 and 150 every year.
    Go Birds!!!!
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Jearlpam0925 wrote:
    The Jeagler wrote:
    again with the ryan howard talk? :roll:

    you guys are nuts.

    he's one of the best power hitters of our time...yet he has flaws...and is probably overpaid. end of story.

    let's focus on the real problems of this team because they are the same now as they were in april: starting pitching after top 2, the bullpen, and the bench.

    ryan howard is the least of our concerns people...

    Pitching gets pass for as long as these douchebags decide not to hit. It has been outstanding compared to what we thought it would be. The bullpen hasn't even had a chance to settle in to a groove. Hitting is the problem here first and foremost.

    i hear ya...i am just assuming our hitting will come around sooner than later. it already has really. sunday may have been a hangover fromt the previous day's debacle. we'll see tonight.

    i just fear we've wasted the best that our back end of the rotation has to offer.

    fat joe is the key to our 2nd half...
    www.myspace.com
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,026
    jamminpearls wrote:
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    jamminpearls wrote:
    And another thing if Howard does so many things bad then why is it that the Phillies and probably 10-15 other teams out there would have given him the same contract? And the other teams that wouldn't or couldn't already have a good first basemen or don't have the cash to do so. So the man was gonna get paid 20-25 from someone and I'm glad he stayed here and will likely retire a Phillie.

    Huh? You serious? 10-15 teams would give Ryan Howard $25 mil a year and the rest won't because they haev a 1st baseman? You're kidding right? Did you talk to GM's? Which teams are these?
    I'd bet if the yanks didn't have tex they would,I'd bet boston would.Even with Ike I'd bet the mets would,if stl didn't have pujulos I'd bet they would. I forget but buster olney said something a while back that Howard would have had 10-15 teams after him if he hit free agency. And it might have been jayson stark I forget,but yeah I'm sure gms would pay 20-25 mill for a guy that gives u 45 and 150 every year.

    Wouldn't happen dude, not with the 1B that are hitting free agency.

    Yankees would absolutely not even without Tex, have learned their lesson with one dimensional players.
    No shot on Boston, thats crazy. They have Youk and would love Agon.
    Mets have Ike Davis, just a kid.
    Tigers have Caberea
    Cards have to pay Pujols and would not give howard that either way. They can barely give that to Pujols.
    Dodgers divorce means they won't

    That leaves the Cubs and Phillies. If anyother team were to offer that, it would be 25% of their payroll. That is just crazy talk. Phillies bid against themselves.
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    jamminpearls wrote:
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    jamminpearls wrote:
    And another thing if Howard does so many things bad then why is it that the Phillies and probably 10-15 other teams out there would have given him the same contract? And the other teams that wouldn't or couldn't already have a good first basemen or don't have the cash to do so. So the man was gonna get paid 20-25 from someone and I'm glad he stayed here and will likely retire a Phillie.

    Huh? You serious? 10-15 teams would give Ryan Howard $25 mil a year and the rest won't because they haev a 1st baseman? You're kidding right? Did you talk to GM's? Which teams are these?
    I'd bet if the yanks didn't have tex they would,I'd bet boston would.Even with Ike I'd bet the mets would,if stl didn't have pujulos I'd bet they would. I forget but buster olney said something a while back that Howard would have had 10-15 teams after him if he hit free agency. And it might have been jayson stark I forget,but yeah I'm sure gms would pay 20-25 mill for a guy that gives u 45 and 150 every year.

    He's 30 right now and yes teams probably would give him 20-25 million currently. He'll be 34 when the 25 million part of his contract kicks in. I don't think there would be 10-15 gms that would give him 25 million for three years with an option for 23 million starting at age 34.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    jamminpearls wrote:
    And another thing if Howard does so many things bad then why is it that the Phillies and probably 10-15 other teams out there would have given him the same contract?

    I'd love to see this list of teams. funny
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    pjhawks wrote:
    The Fixer wrote:
    pjhawks wrote:

    let's wait until the season is over before canonizing joey votto over ryan howard. oh and when joey votto wins and mvp and finishes 2nd in mvp voting give me a call - until then PUHLEESE

    ah, the always comical MVP debate. Rollins won an MVP too and Jeter never has. That means Rollins is the better player right?

    come on man, the MVP thing is dumb. If you want to use that we can look at all star appearances. it's no coincidence that howard has only made 2 all star teams (one of which he didn't even deserve, but manuel was managing and took him as a reserve). either way, all star/MVP stuff is a weak way to support a stance

    so 2 dominating seasons mean nothing but a guy having a good april-june is awesome a la votto - listen to yourself please. all star games appearances are meaningless because a guy like votto being the best player on a bad team will always make it because they have to take one player from each team.

    ok, we can use 2009 stats if you'd like

    votto 322/414/567
    howard 279/360/571

    just sayin, one can make an argument that votto is just as valuable offensively, if not moreso.
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Solat13 wrote:
    The Fixer wrote:
    Solat13 wrote:

    Was bored tonight so I did a little research with the top sluggers of the 4 best teams arguably since 2004 - Red Sox, Yankees, Phils and Cardinals. Between them they've won 5 of the last 6 World Series and went through game logs to see winning percentage in games in which their big slugger (Ortiz, A Rod, Howard and Pujols hit homers since 04 - for Howard 05) Not trying to prove anything - was just curious as to what were winning percentages when top sluggers homered for their teams.

    Boston - Ortiz:

    2004 41 homers 27-11
    2005 47 homers 24-13
    2006 54 homers 33-15
    2007 35 homers 23-8
    2008 23 homers 15-5
    2009 28 homers 23-4
    2010 15 homers 11-2

    Overall record 156-58 .729 winning percentage

    Yankees - A Rod:

    2004 36 homers 25-8
    2005 48 homers 31-12
    2006 35 homers 20-11
    2007 54 homers 35-11
    2008 35 homers 23-12
    2009 30 homers 20-7
    2010 8 homers 6-2

    Overall record 160-63 .717 winning percentage

    Phillies - Howard

    2005 22 homers - 16-6
    2006 58 homers - 32-18
    2007 47 homers - 27-15
    2008 48 homers - 26-17
    2009 45 homers - 26-13
    2010 14 homers - 11-2

    Overall record 138-71 .660 winning prcentage

    Cardinals - Pujols

    2004 46 homers - 32-9
    2005 41 homers - 29-10
    2006 49 homers - 32-12
    2007 32 homers - 16-12
    2008 37 homers - 25-9
    2009 47 homers - 30-6
    2010 15 homers - 8-3

    Overall record 172-61 .738 winning percentage

    I don't think there is a direct correlation here. Hitting a home run is one of numerous variables that goes in to winning a baseball game.

    For example, we could look at adam dunn's record every time he hits a home run. His teams' record would still suck in those games.

    One player hitting a home run and his team winning are virtually independent when discussing why teams win games


    Dunn who has played on much worse teams since 2004

    2004 - 46 homers - 25-16
    2005 - 40 homers - 25-9
    2006 - 40 homers - 25-14
    2007 - 40 homers - 19-17
    2008 - 40 homers - 24-14
    2009 - 38 homers - 22-14
    2010 - 16 homers - 9-6

    Total 149-90 - .623 winning percentage

    Just saw you mentioned Dunn and figured it would make for an interesting person to look up.

    much higher than I expected it to be. I still think it's a coincidence
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    Solat13 wrote:
    Cliffy6745 wrote:

    Huh? You serious? 10-15 teams would give Ryan Howard $25 mil a year and the rest won't because they haev a 1st baseman? You're kidding right? Did you talk to GM's? Which teams are these?

    There's maybe 5 or 6 teams tops that can afford 25 million a year for one player and two were already off the market - the Red Sox with Youk and the Yanks with Tex. The Phils defintiely outbid themselves for Howard's contract but I've always thought that.

    I like Howard just not at that price though.

    Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies

    Dodgers would be able to but with that situation they are not adding payroll.

    Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers are all out.

    I'd throw angels in there too. they have morales though

    yanks and tigers have better 1B with lower annual salaries than howard. terrible
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,026
    The Fixer wrote:
    I'd throw angels in there too. they have morales though

    yanks, sox, tigers all have better 1B with lower annual salaries than howard. terrible

    I was goign to mention the Angels. They are kind of on the edge. $105MM.
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    The Fixer wrote:
    I'd throw angels in there too. they have morales though

    yanks and tigers all have better 1B with lower annual salaries than howard. terrible

    I was goign to mention the Angels. They are kind of on the edge. $105MM.

    it would be one thing if the phils were in the AL and they gave him this contract. maybe amaro forgot what league his team is in. that wouldn't justify the horrendous deal, but it would make it easier to swallow
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,026
    The Fixer wrote:
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    The Fixer wrote:
    I'd throw angels in there too. they have morales though

    yanks and tigers all have better 1B with lower annual salaries than howard. terrible

    I was goign to mention the Angels. They are kind of on the edge. $105MM.

    it would be one thing if the phils were in the AL and they gave him this contract. maybe amaro forgot what league his team is in

    Still, that is 7 teams we mentioned. 5 are out of the bidding, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Tigers. That leaves the Phillies and Cubs (I know nothing about the Cubs system). Not to mention Agon, Fielder and Pujols are all going to be FA's as well. If they had not given him the extension there would have been a whole lot more 1B available than the demand and Econ 101 will tell you what happens in that situation.

    Edit: I do think Boston wants Agon and will have Youk play 3rd.
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Cliffy6745 wrote:

    Still, that is 7 teams we mentioned. 5 are out of the bidding, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Tigers. That leaves the Phillies and Cubs (I know nothing about the Cubs system). Not to mention Agon, Fielder and Pujols are all going to be FA's as well. If they had not given him the extension there would have been a whole lot more 1B available than the demand and Econ 101 will tell you what happens in that situation.

    yeah, you're right. damn you
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    rollins back tonight, dobbs sent to minors.

    so their bench tonight -- francisco, schneider, gload, valdez, castro. yikes

    Dobbs should be done here as he's the lesser evil out of him and gload. there is absolutely no need to keep castro and valdez though. keep one, not both (and I don't think it matters which one they keep)
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,026
    The Fixer wrote:
    rollins back tonight, dobbs sent to minors.

    MLBTR has Dobb's DFA'ed
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    The Fixer wrote:
    rollins back tonight, dobbs sent to minors.

    so their bench tonight -- francisco, schneider, gload, valdez, castro. yikes

    Dobbs should be done here as he's the lesser evil out of him and gload. there is absolutely no need to keep castro and valdez though. keep one, not both (and I don't think it matters which one they keep)

    dobbs is slop. doesnt he have to accept that or something since he's been in the league for so long?

    one thing gillick did much better than amaro was find the right mix of guys off the bench.....though, it looks like he got extremely lucky with dobber a couple years ago.

    i wonder if mayberry will be up soon. he's probably not going to be an everyday player at this point. might as well bring him up as a 4th outfielder. give rauuuuul a break at times...

    if i didnt see castro and valdez on the field at the same time when polanco was hurt, nobody could convince me they were not the same person.
    www.myspace.com
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