Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues

BloodMeridian80

My thoughts on the high number of N1 and N2 GA's vs 1 out of 2:

There should be a lot more 1 out of 2 GA's than 2 out of 2 for GA's in a single city, and it seems to be the opposite based on those reporting. Granted, we do not have all the results. One theory is that if you did not get picked GA for N1, you were not included in the GA pick for N2 (your names were removed from the GA draw for that city). This would leave only GA N1 winners, who also put in for GA N2, and those only going for GA N2 in a given city. This would lead to many more 2 for 2 GA's rather than 1 for 2 GA's.

Still waiting for an example of someone who (with a single account) put in for GA/P1 to both shows in a single city and received P1 N1 and GA N2. I've seen the reverse, which would fit the above theory, but the only example of P1 N1 and GA N2 reported turned out to be results from two accounts.

AmishGuy91

BloodMeridian80 said:

My thoughts on the high number of N1 and N2 GA's vs 1 out of 2:

There should be a lot more 1 out of 2 GA's than 2 out of 2 for GA's in a single city, and it seems to be the opposite based on those reporting. Granted, we do not have all the results. One theory is that if you did not get picked GA for N1, you were not included in the GA pick for N2 (your names were removed from the GA draw for that city). This would leave only GA N1 winners, who also put in for GA N2, and those only going for GA N2 in a given city. This would lead to many more 2 for 2 GA's rather than 1 for 2 GA's.

Still waiting for an example of someone who (with a single account) put in for GA/P1 to both shows in a single city and received P1 N1 and GA N2. I've seen the reverse, which would fit the above theory, but the only example of P1 N1 and GA N2 reported turned out to be results from two accounts.

I think the pieces to this puzzle are starting to come together

on2legs

BloodMeridian80 said:

My thoughts on the high number of N1 and N2 GA's vs 1 out of 2:

There should be a lot more 1 out of 2 GA's than 2 out of 2 for GA's in a single city, and it seems to be the opposite based on those reporting. Granted, we do not have all the results. One theory is that if you did not get picked GA for N1, you were not included in the GA pick for N2 (your names were removed from the GA draw for that city). This would leave only GA N1 winners, who also put in for GA N2, and those only going for GA N2 in a given city. This would lead to many more 2 for 2 GA's rather than 1 for 2 GA's.

Still waiting for an example of someone who (with a single account) put in for GA/P1 to both shows in a single city and received P1 N1 and GA N2. I've seen the reverse, which would fit the above theory, but the only example of P1 N1 and GA N2 reported turned out to be results from two accounts.

JimmyV

BloodMeridian80 said:

My thoughts on the high number of N1 and N2 GA's vs 1 out of 2:

There should be a lot more 1 out of 2 GA's than 2 out of 2 for GA's in a single city, and it seems to be the opposite based on those reporting. Granted, we do not have all the results. One theory is that if you did not get picked GA for N1, you were not included in the GA pick for N2 (your names were removed from the GA draw for that city). This would leave only GA N1 winners, who also put in for GA N2, and those only going for GA N2 in a given city. This would lead to many more 2 for 2 GA's rather than 1 for 2 GA's.

Still waiting for an example of someone who (with a single account) put in for GA/P1 to both shows in a single city and received P1 N1 and GA N2. I've seen the reverse, which would fit the above theory, but the only example of P1 N1 and GA N2 reported turned out to be results from two accounts.

 Wow. This should be easy to disprove if not true. Are there really no examples of N1/P1 and N2/GA out there? 

mpedone

mace1229 said:

mpedone said:

Ledbetterdays said:

PJNB said:

Ledbetterdays said:

Based on the general results it seems like, yes, there was some kind of glitch. I say this due to the number of multiple show multiple GA winners vs. people who got shut out completely. That really should not happen statistically. Will it be significant enough for 10 Club to do anything about it? That remains to be seen. They acknowledged the problems much earlier last time and did their best to remedy where possible, but I think the problem in this draw is more subtle and for those of us who got no shows, we may just need to move on to TM.

With priority and seniority issues last year it was very obvious something was wrong. Something like this will be impossible to prove one way or another unless TM just comes out and says whoopsie. It is not like they will come out and show proof how their system works properly. 

I agree with you. I think it was way too obvious last time and this is much harder to pinpoint what exactly they did. Maybe people got bulk shows, maybe once they won they were favored by the algo, maybe they just got non-mathematically possibly lucky. All of this just goes to the point that doing all of these shows in bulk causes problems. Go back to priority listing. No one wants to be a Pearl Jam ticket broker, so lets not go down the route of everyone just choosing all options for all shows. Give members a 3 show max. Allocate those, then open it up.

Unfortunately, unless we all stop going to shows, Ticketmaster has zero incentive to change anything.

If we stop going to shows, TM has more tickets to charge premium for. 

Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

given2fly23

BloodMeridian80 said:

My thoughts on the high number of N1 and N2 GA's vs 1 out of 2:

There should be a lot more 1 out of 2 GA's than 2 out of 2 for GA's in a single city, and it seems to be the opposite based on those reporting. Granted, we do not have all the results. One theory is that if you did not get picked GA for N1, you were not included in the GA pick for N2 (your names were removed from the GA draw for that city). This would leave only GA N1 winners, who also put in for GA N2, and those only going for GA N2 in a given city. This would lead to many more 2 for 2 GA's rather than 1 for 2 GA's.

Still waiting for an example of someone who (with a single account) put in for GA/P1 to both shows in a single city and received P1 N1 and GA N2. I've seen the reverse, which would fit the above theory, but the only example of P1 N1 and GA N2 reported turned out to be results from two accounts.

Me:

Vancouver 1 - Reserved P1

Vancouver 2 - GA

I selected both options for both shows.

jwhjr17

GlowGirl said:

jwhjr17 said:

It's a completely separate draw for each and every show.  The results of any other show have zero bearing on who is selected.  There is no fair/unfair.  As long as you're actually in the draw and not just registered for Verified Fan, everyone has the same chance of being selected.  Unless a recap of final results using the full spectrum of winners vs. entries etc. for each show is released, speculating based on a small subset of results reported by members online will never represent what happened. The complaining and conspiracy theories are fun to read though.  Carry on.

**Edit MSG only shows where result of another show mattered as you could only win for one of the MSG shows**

It is supposed to be a completely separate draw for each and every show - but do you think that is what actually happened. Last year there were several mistakes that TM made with the lottery draw and assigning seats - so trust in their competence to do this correctly is not a given.

Why would it be any other way?  Taking priority out of the equation made the draw process pretty cut and dry other than the MSG variable.

GlowGirl

given2fly23 said:

BloodMeridian80 said:

My thoughts on the high number of N1 and N2 GA's vs 1 out of 2:

There should be a lot more 1 out of 2 GA's than 2 out of 2 for GA's in a single city, and it seems to be the opposite based on those reporting. Granted, we do not have all the results. One theory is that if you did not get picked GA for N1, you were not included in the GA pick for N2 (your names were removed from the GA draw for that city). This would leave only GA N1 winners, who also put in for GA N2, and those only going for GA N2 in a given city. This would lead to many more 2 for 2 GA's rather than 1 for 2 GA's.

Still waiting for an example of someone who (with a single account) put in for GA/P1 to both shows in a single city and received P1 N1 and GA N2. I've seen the reverse, which would fit the above theory, but the only example of P1 N1 and GA N2 reported turned out to be results from two accounts.

Me:

Vancouver 1 - Reserved P1

Vancouver 2 - GA

I selected both options for both shows.

Vancouver seems to have more variety in the results. It is the U.S. shows that seem weird.

JimmyV

Yes. Need a US example. 

NewfieintheUSA

GlowGirl said:

given2fly23 said:

BloodMeridian80 said:

My thoughts on the high number of N1 and N2 GA's vs 1 out of 2:

There should be a lot more 1 out of 2 GA's than 2 out of 2 for GA's in a single city, and it seems to be the opposite based on those reporting. Granted, we do not have all the results. One theory is that if you did not get picked GA for N1, you were not included in the GA pick for N2 (your names were removed from the GA draw for that city). This would leave only GA N1 winners, who also put in for GA N2, and those only going for GA N2 in a given city. This would lead to many more 2 for 2 GA's rather than 1 for 2 GA's.

Still waiting for an example of someone who (with a single account) put in for GA/P1 to both shows in a single city and received P1 N1 and GA N2. I've seen the reverse, which would fit the above theory, but the only example of P1 N1 and GA N2 reported turned out to be results from two accounts.

Me:

Vancouver 1 - Reserved P1

Vancouver 2 - GA

I selected both options for both shows.

Vancouver seems to have more variety in the results. It is the U.S. shows that seem weird.

Which shows are you hitting? 

MoonTurtle

Did msg go out already?

I've not received an email

GlowGirl

jwhjr17 said:

GlowGirl said:

jwhjr17 said:

It's a completely separate draw for each and every show.  The results of any other show have zero bearing on who is selected.  There is no fair/unfair.  As long as you're actually in the draw and not just registered for Verified Fan, everyone has the same chance of being selected.  Unless a recap of final results using the full spectrum of winners vs. entries etc. for each show is released, speculating based on a small subset of results reported by members online will never represent what happened. The complaining and conspiracy theories are fun to read though.  Carry on.

**Edit MSG only shows where result of another show mattered as you could only win for one of the MSG shows**

It is supposed to be a completely separate draw for each and every show - but do you think that is what actually happened. Last year there were several mistakes that TM made with the lottery draw and assigning seats - so trust in their competence to do this correctly is not a given.

Why would it be any other way?  Taking priority out of the equation made the draw process pretty cut and dry other than the MSG variable.

It seems cut and dried. Maybe they did everything right and some people are just that lucky. All I am saying is that with the multiple screw ups last year and the fact that for the past two tours people have either not gotten their commemorative tickets that they paid for, or had to spend months chasing them down, it is not unreasonable to question TM's competence in getting this right.

Merkin Baller

GlowGirl said:

jwhjr17 said:

GlowGirl said:

jwhjr17 said:

It's a completely separate draw for each and every show.  The results of any other show have zero bearing on who is selected.  There is no fair/unfair.  As long as you're actually in the draw and not just registered for Verified Fan, everyone has the same chance of being selected.  Unless a recap of final results using the full spectrum of winners vs. entries etc. for each show is released, speculating based on a small subset of results reported by members online will never represent what happened. The complaining and conspiracy theories are fun to read though.  Carry on.

**Edit MSG only shows where result of another show mattered as you could only win for one of the MSG shows**

It is supposed to be a completely separate draw for each and every show - but do you think that is what actually happened. Last year there were several mistakes that TM made with the lottery draw and assigning seats - so trust in their competence to do this correctly is not a given.

Why would it be any other way?  Taking priority out of the equation made the draw process pretty cut and dry other than the MSG variable.

It seems cut and dried. Maybe they did everything right and some people are just that lucky. All I am saying is that with the multiple screw ups last year and the fact that for the past two tours people have either not gotten their commemorative tickets that they paid for, or had to spend months chasing them down, it is not unreasonable to question TM's competence in getting this right.

I don't think it's just TM, I think the band has some say in it too. 

The decision to limit MSG only to a single show per person, but not Philly, or Seattle, or GA tickets in general is curious. If they wanted to, they could.

mr bungle

we haven't even gotten to the seat location phase yet.  If TM fucks it up again this year, this forum might explode!

BF25394

CM189191 said:

Getting skunked when people are getting tix to 6, 8 10 shows doesn't seem like a fair or random system at all. 

It's exactly what a random system should produce: a range of all possible combinations and outcomes.

BF25394

spankyMP said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Get_Right said:

The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.

How is a system where one person wins GA to the same 4 shows I put in for and I get nothing not unfair? 

Again; this goes back to not understanding basic statistics. Also, there weren’t a majority of people winning 4 GA shows. Some did. Most did not. Some got shut out completely, most did not get shut out completely. It’s really that simple. 

I understand basic statistics, trust me. Applied math major here. My point is they shouldn't have a system that allows these types of outcomes. 

You are probably right. People don't need to go 10 out of 10 on fan club lottery to enjoy the tour, when many get noting. But thems the breaks.  Whatever they would try to do to put a cap on the lotto system in order to guarantee something for everyone would create another spiral of complaints. Two show minimum or whatever they may decide on etc. If we were all guaranteed one pair of 10C tickets per leg or something, I'd sign up for that and then you battle it out for more if you want. I don't think they will every even consider coming up with the parameters for something like that. It would lead to even more phony 10C accounts by resellers. Hell, I'd have a total of 6 accounts for me, my wife, and the kids.

For the record, exactly two people-- two!-- have reported going 10-for-10 in 93 pages of the lottery thread.

NewfieintheUSA

BF25394 said:

spankyMP said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Get_Right said:

The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.

How is a system where one person wins GA to the same 4 shows I put in for and I get nothing not unfair? 

Again; this goes back to not understanding basic statistics. Also, there weren’t a majority of people winning 4 GA shows. Some did. Most did not. Some got shut out completely, most did not get shut out completely. It’s really that simple. 

I understand basic statistics, trust me. Applied math major here. My point is they shouldn't have a system that allows these types of outcomes. 

You are probably right. People don't need to go 10 out of 10 on fan club lottery to enjoy the tour, when many get noting. But thems the breaks.  Whatever they would try to do to put a cap on the lotto system in order to guarantee something for everyone would create another spiral of complaints. Two show minimum or whatever they may decide on etc. If we were all guaranteed one pair of 10C tickets per leg or something, I'd sign up for that and then you battle it out for more if you want. I don't think they will every even consider coming up with the parameters for something like that. It would lead to even more phony 10C accounts by resellers. Hell, I'd have a total of 6 accounts for me, my wife, and the kids.

For the record, exactly two people-- two!-- have reported going 10-for-10 in 93 pages of the lottery thread.

And the odds of anyone going 10-10 are extremely low. Let alone 2 people 

BF25394

darwinstheory said:

GlowGirl said:

darwinstheory said:

SHZA said:

Edved007 said:

I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.

I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows.  I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show.  That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint. 

The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small. 

This exactly. The question of whether the system is fair or another system is better is beside the point of the OP's premise that the bits of data that we're seeing don't pass the smell test. Those saying "that's just how statistics work" don't have enough data to say that the results we're seeing are consistent with the results that should be expected with a random draw. And given TM's track record with these lotteries--two redraws last year due to mistakes, for example--I don't understand why some are quick to write off the possibility that these draws were not executed in a truly random fashion. 

Not sour grapes -- I wasn't expecting anything great from the lottery and almost didn't enter at all.  

This ^ for SHZA!  Simply put, something went wrong with the random draw. 

Since I don't have hard data, I will suggest something that may have happened only based on the results I have seen here and heard through friends - so it may be off base, but thought it was worth a mention. Do any of you think that they drew for cities and not specific shows. So, if a person put in for two shows and they got whatever they got for the first show, they were also automatically given that for the second show. And if the first show was not won at all, then you were also not given the second show? But if you only put in for the second show, then you were in the draw for that show. From some of the winning patterns here, it almost seems like that. The two shows I got were both single night shows (Baltimore and MSG). But for the shows I put in with two nights - I was shut out of both nights completely. Again, just trying to figure out how some people got GA for both shows in multiple cities. I know it is possible, but seems so unlikely.

That's almost exactly what I think happened. There have been so few reports of same city splits (Seats on night and GA the other) that there was likely a selection difference of some sort from the majority. I could see the results trickling out today being of a more random nature as the issue has likely been identified and possibly corrected. 

There have been plenty of reports of same-city splits. I flagged a half-dozen of them in a four-page span of the 93-page lottery thread. There were many others in the preceding 70 pages.

BF25394

NewfieintheUSA said:

BF25394 said:

spankyMP said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Get_Right said:

The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.

How is a system where one person wins GA to the same 4 shows I put in for and I get nothing not unfair? 

Again; this goes back to not understanding basic statistics. Also, there weren’t a majority of people winning 4 GA shows. Some did. Most did not. Some got shut out completely, most did not get shut out completely. It’s really that simple. 

I understand basic statistics, trust me. Applied math major here. My point is they shouldn't have a system that allows these types of outcomes. 

You are probably right. People don't need to go 10 out of 10 on fan club lottery to enjoy the tour, when many get noting. But thems the breaks.  Whatever they would try to do to put a cap on the lotto system in order to guarantee something for everyone would create another spiral of complaints. Two show minimum or whatever they may decide on etc. If we were all guaranteed one pair of 10C tickets per leg or something, I'd sign up for that and then you battle it out for more if you want. I don't think they will every even consider coming up with the parameters for something like that. It would lead to even more phony 10C accounts by resellers. Hell, I'd have a total of 6 accounts for me, my wife, and the kids.

For the record, exactly two people-- two!-- have reported going 10-for-10 in 93 pages of the lottery thread.

And the odds of anyone going 10-10 are extremely low. Let alone 2 people 

That's two people out of hundreds who have reported their results. And at least one of the two people went 10-for-10 but did not request New York, Philadelphia, Fenway or Wrigley.

mace1229

NewfieintheUSA said:

BF25394 said:

spankyMP said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Get_Right said:

The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.

How is a system where one person wins GA to the same 4 shows I put in for and I get nothing not unfair? 

Again; this goes back to not understanding basic statistics. Also, there weren’t a majority of people winning 4 GA shows. Some did. Most did not. Some got shut out completely, most did not get shut out completely. It’s really that simple. 

I understand basic statistics, trust me. Applied math major here. My point is they shouldn't have a system that allows these types of outcomes. 

You are probably right. People don't need to go 10 out of 10 on fan club lottery to enjoy the tour, when many get noting. But thems the breaks.  Whatever they would try to do to put a cap on the lotto system in order to guarantee something for everyone would create another spiral of complaints. Two show minimum or whatever they may decide on etc. If we were all guaranteed one pair of 10C tickets per leg or something, I'd sign up for that and then you battle it out for more if you want. I don't think they will every even consider coming up with the parameters for something like that. It would lead to even more phony 10C accounts by resellers. Hell, I'd have a total of 6 accounts for me, my wife, and the kids.

For the record, exactly two people-- two!-- have reported going 10-for-10 in 93 pages of the lottery thread.

And the odds of anyone going 10-10 are extremely low. Let alone 2 people 

How many people have been skunked after picking 4 or 5 shows?