538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why.
desperate to be right
Liberal QAnon made its way to Manitoba? I would never expect a Canadian to understand the trump phenomenon
Silver got shamed. Wrong outside MoE in 9 of 11 key states. Lecture me he is not a pollster. Then after he screws up, lecture me because he can’t do a good job because the polls suck.
He has a lot of interesting articles and writers but he made hundreds of factual errors this year and should get out of the prediction business. No the pollsters did not compensate for NCWs. No Biden did no make major widespread strides in suburbs except for a small shift in a tiny handful of metro areas that prevented a disaster. Completely missed an R+22 shift in the most important swing state metro area, Most voters did the same thing as last time, as many warned him was going to happen, but Nate knows better. Throw away 39,999 of those simulations, as they were absolute garbage and almost cost Biden the win.
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why.
desperate to be right
Liberal QAnon made its way to Manitoba? I would never expect a Canadian to understand the trump phenomenon
Silver got shamed. Wrong outside MoE in 9 of 11 key states. Lecture me he is not a pollster. Then after he screws up, lecture me because he can’t do a good job because the polls suck.
He has a lot of interesting articles and writers but he made hundreds of factual errors this year and should get out of the prediction business. No the pollsters did not compensate for NCWs. No Biden did no make major widespread strides in suburbs except for a small shift in a tiny handful of metro areas that prevented a disaster. Completely missed an R+22 shift in the most important swing state metro area, Most voters did the same thing as last time, as many warned him was going to happen, but Nate knows better. Throw away 39,999 of those simulations, as they were absolute garbage and almost cost Biden the win.
You clearly paid no attention. Silver constantly said that things would be tighter if polls were adjusted to margins of error.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018) The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
0
F Me In The Brain
this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,762
Liberal Q. That is funny. As in, dumb as hell, but the term itself makes me laugh.
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.
I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic
I expected AZ, but not GA. I thought NC was 50/50.
I was thinking TX, FL and OH would turn blue....boy that was a fucked up thought.
FL and OH are going the other way. Like Missouri. These states are becoming more red. More and more, the split will be by education level more than anything else. That's the new alignment.
I doubt it will be anywhere near a 16 point margin, but still should be a safe win for Newsom tonight...and then the republicans will continue their Big Lie (which they started once they started getting polling numbers a couple weeks ago)
I doubt it will be anywhere near a 16 point margin, but still should be a safe win for Newsom tonight...and then the republicans will continue their Big Lie (which they started once they started getting polling numbers a couple weeks ago)
A shame it's even that close. I saw a pretty good quote somewhere - forget where now, parahrasing here, too - but people lean towards conspiracy theories in times of uncertainty/trauma/major global incidents.
And what's a shame is this is the gameplan for every Republican in elections going forward - especially high profile elections: when you lose cry RIGGED. Saw this coming before November, and it's never going away. Goddamn shame.
We could clear this all up with rank choice voting, approval voting, etc. Any kind of voting that isn't based on the plurality of a minority.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.
I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic
I expected AZ, but not GA. I thought NC was 50/50.
I was thinking TX, FL and OH would turn blue....boy that was a fucked up thought.
FL and OH are going the other way. Like Missouri. These states are becoming more red. More and more, the split will be by education level more than anything else. That's the new alignment.
Revisiting this comment to say that the OH county that I grew up in (Darke) is, I believe, the lowest vaccinated county in OH at around 36% or something. And people are proud of that.
It is full of blue collar workers that think the GOP is just awesome.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018) The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
I follow one of the guys on twitter who tracks these right wing extremists and he had a big thread full of videos of those whackos outside the Biden/Newsom rally last night. Guns, bastardized American flags, and nonsensical covid and election conspiracies were flying around faster than a prairie fire with a tail wind.
January Sixth, Part Two: The Sequel is likely not far off in the future.
I follow one of the guys on twitter who tracks these right wing extremists and he had a big thread full of videos of those whackos outside the Biden/Newsom rally last night. Guns, bastardized American flags, and nonsensical covid and election conspiracies were flying around faster than a prairie fire with a tail wind.
January Sixth, Part Two: The Sequel is likely not far off in the future.
Rally in DC on the 18th... Restore Justice J6 or some bullshit like that
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
This may actually end up being the most lasting legacy of Trump. He's been doing it for years. He was claiming it was rigged in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose. He claimed the Iowa Caucus was rigged that year. I think he made a similar claim when the Apprentice didn't win an Emmy.
From one man's insecure whining came an entire party's primary political strategy.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin 2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
This may actually end up being the most lasting legacy of Trump. He's been doing it for years. He was claiming it was rigged in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose. He claimed the Iowa Caucus was rigged that year. I think he made a similar claim when the Apprentice didn't win an Emmy.
From one man's insecure whining came an entire party's primary political strategy.
yeah, I forgot about his claims like that in 2016. funny how, since he won, no one really batted an eye about it. and here we are.
Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall
This may actually end up being the most lasting legacy of Trump. He's been doing it for years. He was claiming it was rigged in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose. He claimed the Iowa Caucus was rigged that year. I think he made a similar claim when the Apprentice didn't win an Emmy.
From one man's insecure whining came an entire party's primary political strategy.
It's a fucking shame that this is true.
Would not shock me in the least if he's being encouraged to continue this lie by some folks with thick Russian accents too. I mean, is there a better way than this for him to continue to subvert our democracy from outside the White House?
I follow one of the guys on twitter who tracks these right wing extremists and he had a big thread full of videos of those whackos outside the Biden/Newsom rally last night. Guns, bastardized American flags, and nonsensical covid and election conspiracies were flying around faster than a prairie fire with a tail wind.
January Sixth, Part Two: The Sequel is likely not far off in the future.
Rally in DC on the 18th... Restore Justice J6 or some bullshit like that
I'd love for them to try and get violent again... love it.
Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.
Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.
He's not and never has been a leader. He is the voice, the person willing to say what the deplorables think. He gets his feed from the grass roots and parrots it.
Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.
He's not and never has been a leader. He is the voice, the person willing to say what the deplorables think. He gets his feed from the grass roots and parrots it.
Comments
Silver got shamed. Wrong outside MoE in 9 of 11 key states. Lecture me he is not a pollster. Then after he screws up, lecture me because he can’t do a good job because the polls suck.
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
At least there is that....
I guess I just forgot.
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
And what's a shame is this is the gameplan for every Republican in elections going forward - especially high profile elections: when you lose cry RIGGED. Saw this coming before November, and it's never going away. Goddamn shame.
We could clear this all up with rank choice voting, approval voting, etc. Any kind of voting that isn't based on the plurality of a minority.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
It is full of blue collar workers that think the GOP is just awesome.
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
just wait until the proud boys from out of state storm the california governors mansion and try to take it by force.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
January Sixth, Part Two: The Sequel is likely not far off in the future.
Rally in DC on the 18th... Restore Justice J6 or some bullshit like that
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
This may actually end up being the most lasting legacy of Trump. He's been doing it for years. He was claiming it was rigged in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose. He claimed the Iowa Caucus was rigged that year. I think he made a similar claim when the Apprentice didn't win an Emmy.
From one man's insecure whining came an entire party's primary political strategy.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
Would not shock me in the least if he's being encouraged to continue this lie by some folks with thick Russian accents too. I mean, is there a better way than this for him to continue to subvert our democracy from outside the White House?
If any other president said that shit we would be talking about how insane they are.
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2