Nate Silver 538

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
- 83% isn't 100%
- Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
- Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 

Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea,  but clearly each are proxies for their wing.

The more interesting thing are the undecided voters.  First,  there seems to be fewer.  Second,  you would not expect them to break for Trump.  Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote.  Right track,  wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.  

I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton 

Some exit polling showed left leaning voters supporting Johnson, which would be a “crossover” of ideology and representative of a protest vote. Since 6% in WI did not vote for a D or an R last time, 47% is effectively 50% and Clinton was getting 47% or more in the last 5 WI polls.

Im just throwing caution at the AMT enthusiasm here when looking at these state polls, especially WI. They are notorious for being inaccurate. 

As far as WI being a tough state for the Dems, take the WI gov race when Evers won in 2018 during a blue wave year, when polls were even more blue than this year he won by one percent

After 2016 nothing will surprise me.  But I know that Silver knows what he's doing.

OnWis97

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

Gern Blansten

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan.  I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.

HughFreakingDillon

Gern Blansten said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan.  I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.

hard to say. barr has made it clear he will do anything to help his boss cling to power. they might "leak" something that biden himself (or harris, with some bogus shit she did as AG) may be under investigation, and then *poof*, it goes away after election day. 

Gern Blansten

I have a feeling that some big name GOP people will be coming out against tRump close to election day.

The first debate will be critical.  I'm interested if there will be a shift after that debate.

FiveBelow

Hi! said:

Forecast of November being a total shitshow:100%

This is quite possibly the most accurate forecast we will see between now and then.

OnWis97

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan.  I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.

hard to say. barr has made it clear he will do anything to help his boss cling to power. they might "leak" something that biden himself (or harris, with some bogus shit she did as AG) may be under investigation, and then *poof*, it goes away after election day. 

Or it doesn't go away after election day.  Trump's opponents getting jailed for not doing anything illegal?  That might be a thing in the second term.

The Juggler

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

^
She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

This ain't 2016 folks...

The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.

I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841

Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images

Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT

By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg

WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.

Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.

The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.

mrussel1

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

^
She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

This ain't 2016 folks...

The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.

I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841

Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images

Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT

By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg

WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.

Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.

The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.

This aligns with teh right track/wrong track question.  66% say we are on the wrong track, so it makes sense that third party and undecided voters will break against the incumbent. 

Gern Blansten

Yeah and with Biden's approval being 50%+ and tRUmp's being 43% everything seems to be falling in line

Gern Blansten

A bunch of national polls out today....Rasmussen being the outlier

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

A bunch of national polls out today....Rasmussen being the outlier

The USC one is interesting.  That was a tracking poll that had Trump up on Clinton.  

Gern Blansten

The one thing that Silver keeps saying is that Biden's +7 lead seems to be very consistent which suggests people have made up their minds.

The Juggler

The USC one had him up by like 13 recently. It tends to fluctuate a bit.

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

The one thing that Silver keeps saying is that Biden's +7 lead seems to be very consistent which suggests people have made up their minds.

People just know he's full of shit.  I couldn't believe last night where he said his health plan was ready to roll out.  Give me a break.  That's how little he respects us.  

gimmesometruth27

Gern Blansten said:

A bunch of national polls out today....Rasmussen being the outlier

to be honest, rasmussen is ALWAYS going to be the outlier, as it always favors the GOP.

The Juggler

The Juggler said:

Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 

Started seeing Trump ads again last night. Touting a "record" 10 million jobs added over the last few months! 

....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol

mrussel1

The Juggler said:

The Juggler said:

Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 

Started seeing Trump ads again last night. Touting a "record" 10 million jobs added over the last few months! 

....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol

The only people dumb to think that's because of Trump are the ones that are voting for him anyway.  Here's an interesting analysis by the USC group, one of the orgs that had Trump at or above Clinton in '16.  Trump has been focused on Law and Order, but the the people who prioritize that as most important are already Trump voters.  Worse for him, among all voters and undecided voters, Biden has an advantage on both racial issues and crime.  So Trump is going all in on an issue where he is at a disadvantage. 

Anyway, interesting article.  https://news.yahoo.com/poll-highlights-key-barriers-trump-110041315.html

Lerxst1992

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

Further, check out what the senate is doing today 

The Juggler

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

Further, check out what the senate is doing today 

Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page.