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Nate Silver 538

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 
  • mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

    Darn it... well I guess his campaign is super rich and he's just hoarding it for his post presidency life style. 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 25,460
    edited September 15
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

    Darn it... well I guess his campaign is super rich and he's just hoarding it for his post presidency life style. 

    https://www.instagram.com/tv/CFJ9DoGAXLA/?igshid=15qv0dzp2b2kt

    Sorry for the bad link. Someone should post the Lincoln Project's Team Trump Treason campaign spending ad. FEC filings should show what Team Trump Treason has donated to his campaign because I thought he pledged $100 million of his own money? Suckers.
    Post edited by Halifax2TheMax on
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

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  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    Right now PA is the state that puts Biden in the WH.  Based on polling at least.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    Looks good according to the A+ Marist poll


    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    It's funny that Biden is +30 in CA.  One of my FB "friends" posted some stupid meme about how CA might go red because they had a tRump boat parade.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
    - 83% isn't 100%
    - Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
    - Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    ^
    She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

    This ain't 2016 folks...
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
    - 83% isn't 100%
    - Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
    - Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

    Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

    Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

    I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    edited September 16
    ^
    She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

    This ain't 2016 folks...

    The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

    You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.




  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
    - 83% isn't 100%
    - Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
    - Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

    Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

    Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

    I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 
    Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea,  but clearly each are proxies for their wing.

    The more interesting thing are the undecided voters.  First,  there seems to be fewer.  Second,  you would not expect them to break for Trump.  Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote.  Right track,  wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.  

    I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton 
  • Enthusiasm for third parties is way down this election year as the goal of defeating Team Trump Treason is apparent. Also, the percentage of undecideds is decidedly much smaller as well. As someone has already said, “it ain’t 2016.”
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    Enthusiasm for third parties is way down this election year as the goal of defeating Team Trump Treason is apparent. Also, the percentage of undecideds is decidedly much smaller as well. As someone has already said, “it ain’t 2016.”

    Enthusiasm in WI? NC? FL?

    If trump takes these 3 states he is most likely beating Biden. And as those 538 WI images show above, the WI polls look almost identical to 2016 once factoring the 6% vote for 3rd parties. I agree Biden is favored among that 6%, but that is a razor thin margin overall and it’s very possible WI is THE tipping point state. Trump supporters are not 100% wrong throwing 2016 polling at democrats, however it’s the state polling that’s the problem.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
    - 83% isn't 100%
    - Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
    - Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

    Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

    Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

    I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 
    Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea,  but clearly each are proxies for their wing.

    The more interesting thing are the undecided voters.  First,  there seems to be fewer.  Second,  you would not expect them to break for Trump.  Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote.  Right track,  wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.  

    I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton 

    Some exit polling showed left leaning voters supporting Johnson, which would be a “crossover” of ideology and representative of a protest vote. Since 6% in WI did not vote for a D or an R last time, 47% is effectively 50% and Clinton was getting 47% or more in the last 5 WI polls.

    Im just throwing caution at the AMT enthusiasm here when looking at these state polls, especially WI. They are notorious for being inaccurate. 

    As far as WI being a tough state for the Dems, take the WI gov race when Evers won in 2018 during a blue wave year, when polls were even more blue than this year he won by one percent


  • Hi!Hi! Posts: 1,919
    Forecast of November being a total shitshow:100%
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
    - 83% isn't 100%
    - Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
    - Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

    Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

    Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

    I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 
    "looks solid"....come on man
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
    - 83% isn't 100%
    - Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
    - Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

    Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

    Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

    I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 
    Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea,  but clearly each are proxies for their wing.

    The more interesting thing are the undecided voters.  First,  there seems to be fewer.  Second,  you would not expect them to break for Trump.  Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote.  Right track,  wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.  

    I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton 

    Some exit polling showed left leaning voters supporting Johnson, which would be a “crossover” of ideology and representative of a protest vote. Since 6% in WI did not vote for a D or an R last time, 47% is effectively 50% and Clinton was getting 47% or more in the last 5 WI polls.

    Im just throwing caution at the AMT enthusiasm here when looking at these state polls, especially WI. They are notorious for being inaccurate. 

    As far as WI being a tough state for the Dems, take the WI gov race when Evers won in 2018 during a blue wave year, when polls were even more blue than this year he won by one percent


    After 2016 nothing will surprise me.  But I know that Silver knows what he's doing.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MNPosts: 2,930
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

    1995 Milwaukee
    1998 Alpine, Alpine
    2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston
    2004 Boston, Boston
    2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)
    2011 Alpine, Alpine
    2013 Wrigley
    2014 St. Paul
    2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley
    2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

    If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan.  I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 22,833
    edited September 16
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

    If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan.  I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.
    hard to say. barr has made it clear he will do anything to help his boss cling to power. they might "leak" something that biden himself (or harris, with some bogus shit she did as AG) may be under investigation, and then *poof*, it goes away after election day. 
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    I have a feeling that some big name GOP people will be coming out against tRump close to election day.

    The first debate will be critical.  I'm interested if there will be a shift after that debate.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • JW269453JW269453 Lubbock, TXPosts: 592
    Hi! said:
    Forecast of November being a total shitshow:100%
    This is quite possibly the most accurate forecast we will see between now and then.
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MNPosts: 2,930
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big.  So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.

    If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan.  I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.
    hard to say. barr has made it clear he will do anything to help his boss cling to power. they might "leak" something that biden himself (or harris, with some bogus shit she did as AG) may be under investigation, and then *poof*, it goes away after election day. 

    Or it doesn't go away after election day.  Trump's opponents getting jailed for not doing anything illegal?  That might be a thing in the second term.
    1995 Milwaukee
    1998 Alpine, Alpine
    2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston
    2004 Boston, Boston
    2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)
    2011 Alpine, Alpine
    2013 Wrigley
    2014 St. Paul
    2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley
    2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    ^
    She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

    This ain't 2016 folks...

    The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

    You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.




    I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841


    Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

    First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
    Image US-POLITICS-VOTE-DEMOCRATS
    Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images
    Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT
    By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg

    WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.

    Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.

    The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

    Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.


    chinese-happy.jpg
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    ^
    She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

    This ain't 2016 folks...

    The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

    You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.




    I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841


    Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

    First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
    Image US-POLITICS-VOTE-DEMOCRATS
    Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images
    Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT
    By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg

    WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.

    Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.

    The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

    Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.


    This aligns with teh right track/wrong track question.  66% say we are on the wrong track, so it makes sense that third party and undecided voters will break against the incumbent. 
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    Yeah and with Biden's approval being 50%+ and tRUmp's being 43% everything seems to be falling in line
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
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