Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Darn it... well I guess his campaign is super rich and he's just hoarding it for his post presidency life style.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Darn it... well I guess his campaign is super rich and he's just hoarding it for his post presidency life style.
Sorry for the bad link. Someone should post the Lincoln Project's Team Trump Treason campaign spending ad. FEC filings should show what Team Trump Treason has donated to his campaign because I thought he pledged $100 million of his own money? Suckers.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms. But even still, I don't get your point. - 83% isn't 100% - Some of these numbers are silly. 43-31?? - Clinton never breaks 50%. That's a really important mark.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms. But even still, I don't get your point. - 83% isn't 100% - Some of these numbers are silly. 43-31?? - Clinton never breaks 50%. That's a really important mark.
Remember gern is calling WI “solid.”
Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.
I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent.
^ She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.
This ain't 2016 folks...
The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider.
You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms. But even still, I don't get your point. - 83% isn't 100% - Some of these numbers are silly. 43-31?? - Clinton never breaks 50%. That's a really important mark.
Remember gern is calling WI “solid.”
Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.
I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent.
Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea, but clearly each are proxies for their wing.
The more interesting thing are the undecided voters. First, there seems to be fewer. Second, you would not expect them to break for Trump. Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote. Right track, wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.
I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton
Enthusiasm for third parties is way down this election year as the goal of defeating Team Trump Treason is apparent. Also, the percentage of undecideds is decidedly much smaller as well. As someone has already said, “it ain’t 2016.”
Enthusiasm for third parties is way down this election year as the goal of defeating Team Trump Treason is apparent. Also, the percentage of undecideds is decidedly much smaller as well. As someone has already said, “it ain’t 2016.”
Enthusiasm in WI? NC? FL?
If trump takes these 3 states he is most likely beating Biden. And as those 538 WI images show above, the WI polls look almost identical to 2016 once factoring the 6% vote for 3rd parties. I agree Biden is favored among that 6%, but that is a razor thin margin overall and it’s very possible WI is THE tipping point state. Trump supporters are not 100% wrong throwing 2016 polling at democrats, however it’s the state polling that’s the problem.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms. But even still, I don't get your point. - 83% isn't 100% - Some of these numbers are silly. 43-31?? - Clinton never breaks 50%. That's a really important mark.
Remember gern is calling WI “solid.”
Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.
I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent.
Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea, but clearly each are proxies for their wing.
The more interesting thing are the undecided voters. First, there seems to be fewer. Second, you would not expect them to break for Trump. Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote. Right track, wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.
I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton
Some exit polling showed left leaning voters supporting Johnson, which would be a “crossover” of ideology and representative of a protest vote. Since 6% in WI did not vote for a D or an R last time, 47% is effectively 50% and Clinton was getting 47% or more in the last 5 WI polls.
Im just throwing caution at the AMT enthusiasm here when looking at these state polls, especially WI. They are notorious for being inaccurate.
As far as WI being a tough state for the Dems, take the WI gov race when Evers won in 2018 during a blue wave year, when polls were even more blue than this year he won by one percent
Detroit 2000, Detroit 2003 1-2, Grand Rapids VFC 2004, Philly 2005, Grand Rapids 2006, Detroit 2006, Cleveland 2006, Lollapalooza 2007, Detroit Eddie Solo 2011, Detroit 2014, Chicago 2016 1-2, Chicago 2018 1-2, Ohana Encore 2021 1-2, Chicago Eddie/Earthlings 2022 1-2, Nashville 2022, St. Louis 2022
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms. But even still, I don't get your point. - 83% isn't 100% - Some of these numbers are silly. 43-31?? - Clinton never breaks 50%. That's a really important mark.
Remember gern is calling WI “solid.”
Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.
I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent.
"looks solid"....come on man
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms. But even still, I don't get your point. - 83% isn't 100% - Some of these numbers are silly. 43-31?? - Clinton never breaks 50%. That's a really important mark.
Remember gern is calling WI “solid.”
Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.
I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent.
Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea, but clearly each are proxies for their wing.
The more interesting thing are the undecided voters. First, there seems to be fewer. Second, you would not expect them to break for Trump. Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote. Right track, wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.
I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton
Some exit polling showed left leaning voters supporting Johnson, which would be a “crossover” of ideology and representative of a protest vote. Since 6% in WI did not vote for a D or an R last time, 47% is effectively 50% and Clinton was getting 47% or more in the last 5 WI polls.
Im just throwing caution at the AMT enthusiasm here when looking at these state polls, especially WI. They are notorious for being inaccurate.
As far as WI being a tough state for the Dems, take the WI gov race when Evers won in 2018 during a blue wave year, when polls were even more blue than this year he won by one percent
After 2016 nothing will surprise me. But I know that Silver knows what he's doing.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big. So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big. So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.
If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan. I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big. So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.
If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan. I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.
hard to say. barr has made it clear he will do anything to help his boss cling to power. they might "leak" something that biden himself (or harris, with some bogus shit she did as AG) may be under investigation, and then *poof*, it goes away after election day.
Yeah I agree. Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows. He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends.
Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
Well, that's going to happen again...well not exactly that but something at least as big. So to whatever extent these polls are correct, they're outdated...or at least they will be when it matters.
If they indict Hunter Biden a week before the election the shit is going to hit the fan. I think it will have a negative effect on tRump this time.
hard to say. barr has made it clear he will do anything to help his boss cling to power. they might "leak" something that biden himself (or harris, with some bogus shit she did as AG) may be under investigation, and then *poof*, it goes away after election day.
Or it doesn't go away after election day. Trump's opponents getting jailed for not doing anything illegal? That might be a thing in the second term.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
^ She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.
This ain't 2016 folks...
The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider.
You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.
I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.
Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1
First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images
Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT
By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg
WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.
Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.
The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.
Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.
^ She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.
This ain't 2016 folks...
The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider.
You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.
I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.
Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1
First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images
Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT
By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg
WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.
Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.
The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.
Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.
This aligns with teh right track/wrong track question. 66% say we are on the wrong track, so it makes sense that third party and undecided voters will break against the incumbent.
Comments
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Sorry for the bad link. Someone should post the Lincoln Project's Team Trump Treason campaign spending ad. FEC filings should show what Team Trump Treason has donated to his campaign because I thought he pledged $100 million of his own money? Suckers.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
- 83% isn't 100%
- Some of these numbers are silly. 43-31??
- Clinton never breaks 50%. That's a really important mark.
She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.
This ain't 2016 folks...
I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent.
The more interesting thing are the undecided voters. First, there seems to be fewer. Second, you would not expect them to break for Trump. Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote. Right track, wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.
I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
If trump takes these 3 states he is most likely beating Biden. And as those 538 WI images show above, the WI polls look almost identical to 2016 once factoring the 6% vote for 3rd parties. I agree Biden is favored among that 6%, but that is a razor thin margin overall and it’s very possible WI is THE tipping point state. Trump supporters are not 100% wrong throwing 2016 polling at democrats, however it’s the state polling that’s the problem.
Im just throwing caution at the AMT enthusiasm here when looking at these state polls, especially WI. They are notorious for being inaccurate.
Detroit 2000, Detroit 2003 1-2, Grand Rapids VFC 2004, Philly 2005, Grand Rapids 2006, Detroit 2006, Cleveland 2006, Lollapalooza 2007, Detroit Eddie Solo 2011, Detroit 2014, Chicago 2016 1-2, Chicago 2018 1-2, Ohana Encore 2021 1-2, Chicago Eddie/Earthlings 2022 1-2, Nashville 2022, St. Louis 2022
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
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The first debate will be critical. I'm interested if there will be a shift after that debate.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Or it doesn't go away after election day. Trump's opponents getting jailed for not doing anything illegal? That might be a thing in the second term.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841
Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1
WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.
Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.
The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.
Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana