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Nate Silver 538

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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    A bunch of national polls out today....Rasmussen being the outlier


    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    A bunch of national polls out today....Rasmussen being the outlier


    The USC one is interesting.  That was a tracking poll that had Trump up on Clinton.  
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    The one thing that Silver keeps saying is that Biden's +7 lead seems to be very consistent which suggests people have made up their minds.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    edited September 16
    The USC one had him up by like 13 recently. It tends to fluctuate a bit.
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    The one thing that Silver keeps saying is that Biden's +7 lead seems to be very consistent which suggests people have made up their minds.
    People just know he's full of shit.  I couldn't believe last night where he said his health plan was ready to roll out.  Give me a break.  That's how little he respects us.  
  • gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin LouisPosts: 17,744
    A bunch of national polls out today....Rasmussen being the outlier


    to be honest, rasmussen is ALWAYS going to be the outlier, as it always favors the GOP.
    "There is nothing to writing. All you do is sit down at a typewriter and bleed."- Hemingway

    "i'm not here to start the fire. i am here to fan the flames..."

    If you have never failed, you have never lived.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 
    Started seeing Trump ads again last night. Touting a "record" 10 million jobs added over the last few months! 

    ....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 
    Started seeing Trump ads again last night. Touting a "record" 10 million jobs added over the last few months! 

    ....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol
    The only people dumb to think that's because of Trump are the ones that are voting for him anyway.  Here's an interesting analysis by the USC group, one of the orgs that had Trump at or above Clinton in '16.  Trump has been focused on Law and Order, but the the people who prioritize that as most important are already Trump voters.  Worse for him, among all voters and undecided voters, Biden has an advantage on both racial issues and crime.  So Trump is going all in on an issue where he is at a disadvantage. 

    Anyway, interesting article.  https://news.yahoo.com/poll-highlights-key-barriers-trump-110041315.html
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    edited September 17
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    ^
    She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

    This ain't 2016 folks...

    The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

    You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.




    I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841


    Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

    First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.
    Image US-POLITICS-VOTE-DEMOCRATS
    Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images
    Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT
    By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg

    WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.

    Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.

    The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

    Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.



    I am saying it's likely most trump & clinton voters in WI are sticking with the same party this time, except for the 6% that voted 3rd party 2016.

    Your article backs up my estimate,  that biden will win that 6%  by 20%, which would give him about a 1 point win. Nothing solid about that.


  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    edited September 17
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    edited September 17
    538s ACTUAL average right now, before adjustments, is 6.8%

    RCP aggregate had clinton ahead 6.5%

    I'm perplexed why this is such a difficult point to make. Biden is ahead but its close.. Please don't go back to the 50% issue.

    I'm concerned trump and his voters may be onto something 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    You're right.  I'm going to take some time off and personally reflect.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Go BeaversGo Beavers Posts: 7,276
    Hi! said:
    static111 said:
    Hi! said:

    Hmmm Bryant street bridge? I really don’t remember all the street names in town as I was out in the sticks.  Northern Michigan in summer is hard to beat
    Not sure, just main drawbridge in downtown area. I thought the clouds were pretty, lol. Yeah, I’ve been all over the state this year and just floored by the beauty. I almost don’t want to tell anyone, keep it a secret, lol. The UP is amazing. I must of visited and hiked 15 of the most beautiful falls you have ever seen. 
    Northern Michigan is a bit of a secret, isn’t it? My dad had a cottage on Douglas Lake, just west of Cheboygan. It’s beautiful up there. If he was still alive I’d probably be there right around this time of year. I’ve got the memories of the sights, sounds, and smell of the air kept in my head, though. 
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    edited September 17
    mrussel1 said:
    Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 
    Started seeing Trump ads again last night. Touting a "record" 10 million jobs added over the last few months! 

    ....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol
    The only people dumb to think that's because of Trump are the ones that are voting for him anyway.  Here's an interesting analysis by the USC group, one of the orgs that had Trump at or above Clinton in '16.  Trump has been focused on Law and Order, but the the people who prioritize that as most important are already Trump voters.  Worse for him, among all voters and undecided voters, Biden has an advantage on both racial issues and crime.  So Trump is going all in on an issue where he is at a disadvantage. 

    Anyway, interesting article.  https://news.yahoo.com/poll-highlights-key-barriers-trump-110041315.html
    The USC poll is different for many reasons, one being they poll the same population until the election. If they made a bad sample selection the poll has the same problem throughout the campaign


    An interesting interview is on the USC poll's website 

    Have you changed your survey methodology since the 2016 election?

    Yes, we have made adjustments. Our post-election investigation found that the incorrect outcome was due to an excess of rural voters in our sample, most of whom voted for Trump. After correcting our weighting procedures to bring urban and rural residents into correct alignment, our data modeled a 1 percentage point Clinton win. We used our revised model to predict the 2018 generic congressional election outcomes, with great success. This year our weighting procedures have also been revised to “trim” the weights, which will prevent rare individuals from carrying a very heavy weight in the sample



    Edit, their sampling error led to an erroneous estimate of popular vote 


    But inadvertently nailed the electoral college. Which is exactly the challenge biden is facing.

    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • Go BeaversGo Beavers Posts: 7,276
    WI looks solid


    The thing with Trump is that his poll numbers have hardly fluctuated over time. Like for years now. Probably an outcome of his polarizing stance with everything. The only bump I can see between now and election is a Barr/Durham bullshit October surprise spin job. But even then, the memory of the Russia investigation seems buried in the public’s mind. Trump’s constant drama and stream of corruption may backfire on him here. 
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    WI looks solid


    The thing with Trump is that his poll numbers have hardly fluctuated over time. Like for years now. Probably an outcome of his polarizing stance with everything. The only bump I can see between now and election is a Barr/Durham bullshit October surprise spin job. But even then, the memory of the Russia investigation seems buried in the public’s mind. Trump’s constant drama and stream of corruption may backfire on him here. 
    That's what I think.  This won't be a repeat of 2016.  Comey knows he fucked up and Wray won't make that same mistake.  Plus...the public won't buy it this time.  Kind of like tRump saying the vaccine will be ready in October even though his CDC is saying June/July.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    mrussel1 said:
    Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 
    Started seeing Trump ads again last night. Touting a "record" 10 million jobs added over the last few months! 

    ....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol
    The only people dumb to think that's because of Trump are the ones that are voting for him anyway.  Here's an interesting analysis by the USC group, one of the orgs that had Trump at or above Clinton in '16.  Trump has been focused on Law and Order, but the the people who prioritize that as most important are already Trump voters.  Worse for him, among all voters and undecided voters, Biden has an advantage on both racial issues and crime.  So Trump is going all in on an issue where he is at a disadvantage. 

    Anyway, interesting article.  https://news.yahoo.com/poll-highlights-key-barriers-trump-110041315.html
    The USC poll is different for many reasons, one being they poll the same population until the election. If they made a bad sample selection the poll has the same problem throughout the campaign


    An interesting interview is on the USC poll's website 

    Have you changed your survey methodology since the 2016 election?

    Yes, we have made adjustments. Our post-election investigation found that the incorrect outcome was due to an excess of rural voters in our sample, most of whom voted for Trump. After correcting our weighting procedures to bring urban and rural residents into correct alignment, our data modeled a 1 percentage point Clinton win. We used our revised model to predict the 2018 generic congressional election outcomes, with great success. This year our weighting procedures have also been revised to “trim” the weights, which will prevent rare individuals from carrying a very heavy weight in the sample



    Edit, their sampling error led to an erroneous estimate of popular vote 


    But inadvertently nailed the electoral college. Which is exactly the challenge biden is facing.

    Yes, it's a tracking poll.  But I believe Rasmussen is as well.  The details on the undecided and priorities is the interesting part of the analysis. 
  • Hi!Hi! Posts: 1,919
    edited September 17
    Hi! said:
    static111 said:
    Hi! said:

    Hmmm Bryant street bridge? I really don’t remember all the street names in town as I was out in the sticks.  Northern Michigan in summer is hard to beat
    Not sure, just main drawbridge in downtown area. I thought the clouds were pretty, lol. Yeah, I’ve been all over the state this year and just floored by the beauty. I almost don’t want to tell anyone, keep it a secret, lol. The UP is amazing. I must of visited and hiked 15 of the most beautiful falls you have ever seen. 
    Northern Michigan is a bit of a secret, isn’t it? My dad had a cottage on Douglas Lake, just west of Cheboygan. It’s beautiful up there. If he was still alive I’d probably be there right around this time of year. I’ve got the memories of the sights, sounds, and smell of the air kept in my head, though. 
    I suppose, probably less of a secret everyday, especially with people taking advantage of open spaces, outdoorsy places due to Covid. Yes, it’s beautiful this time of year, especially with the foliage, lol.( Sorry been listening to a lot of Gaffigan.)Anyway, peak colors probably in about 2 weeks I’d say. I spent another weekend up north last week. I did the Leelanau Trail, beautiful rolling farmland ect.



    Post edited by Hi! on
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
    exactly
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 22,833
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
    exactly
    can someone explain this? i don't get why a 5 point lead is different from a 5 point lead. (not being argumentative, just trying to learn how this works)
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    edited September 17
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
    exactly
    can someone explain this? i don't get why a 5 point lead is different from a 5 point lead. (not being argumentative, just trying to learn how this works)
    at 45-40 there are 15% undecided with less than 50% of the vote going to the "leader"

    at 50-45 there is only 5% undecided and the leader would likely get at least 50% of the undecideds
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
    exactly
    can someone explain this? i don't get why a 5 point lead is different from a 5 point lead. (not being argumentative, just trying to learn how this works)
    Because the further below 50, the more undecided voters that could swing.  Having so few undecided locks the numbers in tighter.  It's why 50 is the magic number. 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
    exactly
    can someone explain this? i don't get why a 5 point lead is different from a 5 point lead. (not being argumentative, just trying to learn how this works)
    50+45 = 95
    45+40=85
    10% less people for the trailing candidate to convince to vote for him

    chinese-happy.jpg
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 22,833
    thanks folks. figured it had something to do with that
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    .The Juggler said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
    exactly

    Unless trump voters And undecideds are being under sampled and Biden voters over sampled.

    Inexact polling can get either candidates total share wrong, as well as its projection of the total voting pool, as it may not be able to identify undecideds. If thats the case, it’s estimate of undecideds would also be unreliable

    Biden is up in WI by 6.7% with 7% undecided, and his lead has been shrinking of late. Technically there are enough undecideds to prove this state polling is off again. But we have no way of knowing if the undecideds are accurate. Given trumps weird way of connecting with white voters, I’ll keep saying watch out for states like this. Also, This state is notorious for inexact polling, and The WI demos are very favorable to trump. 

    I’d rather have Bidens poll numbers than trump but I’d be careful thinking WI is solid. 


  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    .The Juggler said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    WI looks solid


    Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 


    Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 








    you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect
    If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


    Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

    Further, check out what the senate is doing today 
    Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 
    You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

    I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


    Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 
    I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  
    exactly

    Unless trump voters And undecideds are being under sampled and Biden voters over sampled.

    Inexact polling can get either candidates total share wrong, as well as its projection of the total voting pool, as it may not be able to identify undecideds. If thats the case, it’s estimate of undecideds would also be unreliable

    Biden is up in WI by 6.7% with 7% undecided, and his lead has been shrinking of late. Technically there are enough undecideds to prove this state polling is off again. But we have no way of knowing if the undecideds are accurate. Given trumps weird way of connecting with white voters, I’ll keep saying watch out for states like this. Also, This state is notorious for inexact polling, and The WI demos are very favorable to trump. 

    I’d rather have Bidens poll numbers than trump but I’d be careful thinking WI is solid. 


    You keep saying "solid".  I'm not sure who said it, but it's not the "AMT" as you indicated earlier.  I think we're all aware of what happened in 16, but you'll have to forgive us for posting favorable news and trends. 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    edited September 17
    Biden's lead has increased by 1% since the end of August. 

    It's also twice as big as it was in early June. 

    Let's not over think this. WI is in decent shape at the moment. Can Trump win it? Absolutely.Would Hillary have won it if she bothered to pay attention to it even a little bit four years ago? Yeah, probably. 

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    Post edited by The Juggler on
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