Nate Silver 538

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Halifax2TheMax

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

mrussel1

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Darn it... well I guess his campaign is super rich and he's just hoarding it for his post presidency life style. 

Halifax2TheMax

mrussel1 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Darn it... well I guess his campaign is super rich and he's just hoarding it for his post presidency life style. 

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CFJ9DoGAXLA/?igshid=15qv0dzp2b2kt

Sorry for the bad link. Someone should post the Lincoln Project's Team Trump Treason campaign spending ad. FEC filings should show what Team Trump Treason has donated to his campaign because I thought he pledged $100 million of his own money? Suckers.

The Juggler

Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 

Gern Blansten

Right now PA is the state that puts Biden in the WH.  Based on polling at least.

Gern Blansten

Looks good according to the A+ Marist poll

Gern Blansten

It's funny that Biden is +30 in CA.  One of my FB "friends" posted some stupid meme about how CA might go red because they had a tRump boat parade.

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
- 83% isn't 100%
- Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
- Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

The Juggler

^
She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

This ain't 2016 folks...

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
- 83% isn't 100%
- Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
- Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 

Lerxst1992

The Juggler said:

^
She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

This ain't 2016 folks...

The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
- 83% isn't 100%
- Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
- Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 

Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea,  but clearly each are proxies for their wing.

The more interesting thing are the undecided voters.  First,  there seems to be fewer.  Second,  you would not expect them to break for Trump.  Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote.  Right track,  wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.  

I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton 

Halifax2TheMax

Enthusiasm for third parties is way down this election year as the goal of defeating Team Trump Treason is apparent. Also, the percentage of undecideds is decidedly much smaller as well. As someone has already said, “it ain’t 2016.”

Lerxst1992

Halifax2TheMax said:

Enthusiasm for third parties is way down this election year as the goal of defeating Team Trump Treason is apparent. Also, the percentage of undecideds is decidedly much smaller as well. As someone has already said, “it ain’t 2016.”

Enthusiasm in WI? NC? FL?

If trump takes these 3 states he is most likely beating Biden. And as those 538 WI images show above, the WI polls look almost identical to 2016 once factoring the 6% vote for 3rd parties. I agree Biden is favored among that 6%, but that is a razor thin margin overall and it’s very possible WI is THE tipping point state. Trump supporters are not 100% wrong throwing 2016 polling at democrats, however it’s the state polling that’s the problem.

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
- 83% isn't 100%
- Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
- Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 

Did the third party break 50/50 with Stein and Johnson? I have no idea,  but clearly each are proxies for their wing.

The more interesting thing are the undecided voters.  First,  there seems to be fewer.  Second,  you would not expect them to break for Trump.  Historically they will either break for the challenger or not vote.  Right track,  wrong track % also is a proxie for how they will break.  

I don't call anything"solid", but I think Biden is in a clearly better position than Clinton 

Some exit polling showed left leaning voters supporting Johnson, which would be a “crossover” of ideology and representative of a protest vote. Since 6% in WI did not vote for a D or an R last time, 47% is effectively 50% and Clinton was getting 47% or more in the last 5 WI polls.

Im just throwing caution at the AMT enthusiasm here when looking at these state polls, especially WI. They are notorious for being inaccurate. 

As far as WI being a tough state for the Dems, take the WI gov race when Evers won in 2018 during a blue wave year, when polls were even more blue than this year he won by one percent

Hi!

Forecast of November being a total shitshow:100%

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

Presumably polls were adjusted in 18, which accounts for the extreme accuracy in predicting the mid terms.  But even still, I don't get your point.  
- 83% isn't 100%
- Some of these numbers are silly.  43-31??  
- Clinton never breaks 50%.  That's a really important mark. 

Remember gern is calling WI “solid.” 

Clinton didn’t break 50% only because there were viable 3rd party options getting votes. 3rd party candidates eventually  got over 6% of the WI vote. Close to Election Day Clinton was getting at least 47% in the last 5 polls. Back out what we know 3rd parties were going to get and she is effectively over 50%.

I realize 83 isn’t 100 however the 2020 Silver WI projections look an awful lot like 2016 adjusting for 3rd parties. Throwing out that silly google consumer poll, whatever the heck that is, polling is very similar now vs then. I’m struggling to understand why this isn’t apparent. 

"looks solid"....come on man