Nate Silver 538
Comments
-
The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:^
She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.
This ain't 2016 folks...The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider.You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1
First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty ImagesAug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDTBy Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa HolzbergWASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.
Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.
The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.
Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.
I am saying it's likely most trump & clinton voters in WI are sticking with the same party this time, except for the 6% that voted 3rd party 2016.
Your article backs up my estimate, that biden will win that 6% by 20%, which would give him about a 1 point win. Nothing solid about that.
0 -
The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.Post edited by Lerxst1992 on0 -
538s ACTUAL average right now, before adjustments, is 6.8%
RCP aggregate had clinton ahead 6.5%
I'm perplexed why this is such a difficult point to make. Biden is ahead but its close.. Please don't go back to the 50% issue.
I'm concerned trump and his voters may be onto something0 -
Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.0 -
Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing todayRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Hi! said:static111 said:Hi! said:0
-
mrussel1 said:The Juggler said:The Juggler said:Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe.
....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol
Anyway, interesting article. https://news.yahoo.com/poll-highlights-key-barriers-trump-110041315.html
An interesting interview is on the USC poll's websiteHave you changed your survey methodology since the 2016 election?
Yes, we have made adjustments. Our post-election investigation found that the incorrect outcome was due to an excess of rural voters in our sample, most of whom voted for Trump. After correcting our weighting procedures to bring urban and rural residents into correct alignment, our data modeled a 1 percentage point Clinton win. We used our revised model to predict the 2018 generic congressional election outcomes, with great success. This year our weighting procedures have also been revised to “trim” the weights, which will prevent rare individuals from carrying a very heavy weight in the sample
Edit, their sampling error led to an erroneous estimate of popular vote
But inadvertently nailed the electoral college. Which is exactly the challenge biden is facing.
Post edited by Lerxst1992 on0 -
Gern Blansten said:WI looks solid0
-
Go Beavers said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:The Juggler said:The Juggler said:Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe.
....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol
Anyway, interesting article. https://news.yahoo.com/poll-highlights-key-barriers-trump-110041315.html
An interesting interview is on the USC poll's websiteHave you changed your survey methodology since the 2016 election?
Yes, we have made adjustments. Our post-election investigation found that the incorrect outcome was due to an excess of rural voters in our sample, most of whom voted for Trump. After correcting our weighting procedures to bring urban and rural residents into correct alignment, our data modeled a 1 percentage point Clinton win. We used our revised model to predict the 2018 generic congressional election outcomes, with great success. This year our weighting procedures have also been revised to “trim” the weights, which will prevent rare individuals from carrying a very heavy weight in the sample
Edit, their sampling error led to an erroneous estimate of popular vote
But inadvertently nailed the electoral college. Which is exactly the challenge biden is facing.
0 -
Go Beavers said:Hi! said:static111 said:Hi! said:Post edited by Hi! on
Detroit 2000, Detroit 2003 1-2, Grand Rapids VFC 2004, Philly 2005, Grand Rapids 2006, Detroit 2006, Cleveland 2006, Lollapalooza 2007, Detroit Eddie Solo 2011, Detroit 2014, Chicago 2016 1-2, Chicago 2018 1-2, Ohana Encore 2021 1-2, Chicago Eddie/Earthlings 2022 1-2, Nashville 2022, St. Louis 2022
0 -
mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.www.myspace.com0 -
The Juggler said:mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall0 -
HughFreakingDillon said:The Juggler said:mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.
at 50-45 there is only 5% undecided and the leader would likely get at least 50% of the undecidedsRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
HughFreakingDillon said:The Juggler said:mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.0 -
HughFreakingDillon said:The Juggler said:mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.
45+40=85
10% less people for the trailing candidate to convince to vote for him
www.myspace.com0 -
thanks folks. figured it had something to do with thatHugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall0
-
.The Juggler said:mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.Unless trump voters And undecideds are being under sampled and Biden voters over sampled.
Inexact polling can get either candidates total share wrong, as well as its projection of the total voting pool, as it may not be able to identify undecideds. If thats the case, it’s estimate of undecideds would also be unreliableBiden is up in WI by 6.7% with 7% undecided, and his lead has been shrinking of late. Technically there are enough undecideds to prove this state polling is off again. But we have no way of knowing if the undecideds are accurate. Given trumps weird way of connecting with white voters, I’ll keep saying watch out for states like this. Also, This state is notorious for inexact polling, and The WI demos are very favorable to trump.
I’d rather have Bidens poll numbers than trump but I’d be careful thinking WI is solid.0 -
Lerxst1992 said:.The Juggler said:mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Lerxst1992 said:Gern Blansten said:Lerxst1992 said:mrussel1 said:Gern Blansten said:WI looks solidHate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.”
Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points
Further, check out what the senate is doing today
I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead
Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters. I estimated it to be 20 from memory.Unless trump voters And undecideds are being under sampled and Biden voters over sampled.
Inexact polling can get either candidates total share wrong, as well as its projection of the total voting pool, as it may not be able to identify undecideds. If thats the case, it’s estimate of undecideds would also be unreliableBiden is up in WI by 6.7% with 7% undecided, and his lead has been shrinking of late. Technically there are enough undecideds to prove this state polling is off again. But we have no way of knowing if the undecideds are accurate. Given trumps weird way of connecting with white voters, I’ll keep saying watch out for states like this. Also, This state is notorious for inexact polling, and The WI demos are very favorable to trump.
I’d rather have Bidens poll numbers than trump but I’d be careful thinking WI is solid.0 -
Biden's lead has increased by 1% since the end of August.
It's also twice as big as it was in early June.
Let's not over think this. WI is in decent shape at the moment. Can Trump win it? Absolutely.Would Hillary have won it if she bothered to pay attention to it even a little bit four years ago? Yeah, probably.
One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0
Categories
- All Categories
- 148.8K Pearl Jam's Music and Activism
- 110K The Porch
- 272 Vitalogy
- 35K Given To Fly (live)
- 3.5K Words and Music...Communication
- 39.1K Flea Market
- 39.1K Lost Dogs
- 58.6K Not Pearl Jam's Music
- 10.6K Musicians and Gearheads
- 29.1K Other Music
- 17.8K Poetry, Prose, Music & Art
- 1.1K The Art Wall
- 56.7K Non-Pearl Jam Discussion
- 22.2K A Moving Train
- 31.7K All Encompassing Trip
- 2.9K Technical Stuff and Help