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Nate Silver 538

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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    I'm interested in seeing some new OH polls.  That state has tightened up according to 538
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

    Trump needs Florida more than Biden.
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    edited September 23
    Latest FL poll moved Biden from 60% to 58%...still higher than where he was two weeks ago. 

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/

    Anyone know if Bloomberg's money blitz has even started there yet though? I have a feeling that will help. His ads were great in the primaries. 
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

    Trump needs Florida more than Biden.
    Yeah FL would just be icing on the cake...not necessary for Biden.  Biden needs PA for sure
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    The felon issue won't be in the numbers.  Be interesting to see if that makes a difference.  I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one. 
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    mrussel1 said:
    The felon issue won't be in the numbers.  Be interesting to see if that makes a difference.  I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one. 
    Yeah but watch them all vote for tRump.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003

    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

    A 77% chance to win but only a 4-point lead in the polls? I dunno, I don't really "get" the simulations that site does. 

    Regarding PA, it's looking pretty similar to 2016: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh going for the Dem, and all the rural places going for Trump. I'd be curious to see what the polling in Lackawanna County (my home county) looks like. Hillary won there in 2016, but just barely (50%-46% versus 65%-35% for Obama/Romney). Biden is from Scranton, but will that matter? Biden has been in Washington forever, but Scranton has gotten progressively worse. Even the once-great Steamtown Mall is closed now. Now, it's not like Trump has made anything better. But despte that, my hometown (about 10 miles from Scranton) is a total a Trump town now after being democratic for my entire youth. I wonder how Scranton and Wilkes-Barre are looking. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/


    How do we get from polls to forecasted vote share?

    To calculate what percentage of the vote each candidate is forecasted to get in Pennsylvania, our model starts with the weighted polling average and then factors in economic conditions, demographics, uncertainty and how states with similar characteristics are forecasted to vote. The steps below show a simplified version of how that data shapes the forecast.

    TRUMPBIDEN
    1.Polling average45.2%49.7%
    Adjust for polling bounces from recent events-0.8+0.1
    2.Adjusted polling average44.4%49.8%
    Allocate undecided voters+2.6+2.6
    3.Polls-based vote share46.9%52.4%
    Average with demographics-based vote share projection45.9%53.4%
    4.Today’s vote share (if the election were held today)

    For Pennsylvania, this average is 79% polls, 21% demographics

    46.7%52.6%
    Average with economics- and incumbency-based projection51.5%47.8%
    5.Projected vote share for Nov. 3

    For Pennsylvania, this average is 86% today’s vote share, 14% economics and incumbency

    47.4%51.9%
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  • Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    lol
    Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

    I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    Why would people lie to a pollster?  It makes no sense.  To believe that, you would have to believe they lie about their senator choice and the importance of specific issues.  Because these all align with the Biden narrative too.  Seems dubious to me. 
  • lol
    Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

    I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 
    lol
    There's Trump rally attendees and MAGA-hate wearers, but you think there's 60 million people like that? 

    And why would someone be shy about voting for Biden? Isn't he what's "right" and Trump is what's "wrong"? Shouldn't they be proud to vote for Biden to save us all from Trump? 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, INPosts: 4,229
    lol
    Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

    I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 
    I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

    I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 14,066
    edited September 23
    lol
    Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

    I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 
    I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

    I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
    I can see that in a "dark red" region for sure. But remember, there's not much enthusiasm for Joe. Enthusiastic voters put signs in their yards. Call it "shyness" if ya want. But I also think there's a lot of "Well whatever, I guess I have to vote for Biden because Trump is awful" voters. Hell, I'm one of them, and was in 2016 for Hillary. We don't put signs in our yards for Joe. We look at the democratic party and say "You're lucky you're going against the worst incumbent president ever, or you wouldn't be getting my vote."
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    edited September 23
    lol
    Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

    I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 
    I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

    I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
    Yeah
    Everyone always brings this up as a reason why Trump will come from behind to win when there is basically no evidence of an abundance of these voters. Not in 2016, not in 2018, and not in 2020. Why in the world would someone lie to a pollster over the phone when they're anonymous anyway? Lol. Makes no sense. 

    Obviously these are all anecdotal instances but my parents live near Biden's summer home in Delaware. You'd think that would be Biden country but its not so much, at least in their development, which is kind of Del Boca Vista-y. Trump supporters down there are everywhere, they're vocal, they're brash, they're flying their dumb flags, and in that specific community they are intimidating to people who do not conform with their views. My parents moved to that development 6 years ago and still like it, but they are always talking about how they feel so uncomfortable simply just walking around down there. Someone even stole their Biden yard sign the other day. 

    Again---anecdotal, obviously, but there is no evidence of an abundance of these so called "shy" Trump voters in polls or in the results of the last couple elections. 
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    edited September 23
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 22,833
    lol
    Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

    I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 
    I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

    I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
    Yeah
    Everyone always brings this up as a reason why Trump will come from behind to win when there is basically no evidence of an abundance of these voters. Not in 2016, not in 2018, and not in 2020. Why in the world would someone lie to a pollster over the phone when they're anonymous anyway? Lol. Makes no sense. 

    Obviously these are all anecdotal instances but my parents live near Biden's summer home in Delaware. You'd think that would be Biden country but its not so much, at least in their development, which is kind of Del Boca Vista-y. Trump supporters down there are everywhere, they're vocal, they're brash, they're flying their dumb flags, and in that specific community they are intimidating to people who do not conform with their views. My parents moved to that development 6 years ago and still like it, but they are always talking about how they feel so uncomfortable simply just walking around down there. Someone even stole their Biden yard sign the other day. 

    Again---anecdotal, obviously, but there is no evidence of an abundance of these so called "shy" Trump voters in polls or in the results of the last couple elections. 
    del bisto becko?
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 22,833
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    not all of them. i'm sure there are ones that vote for trump simply because he has the R beside his name, and nothing else. they are probably just as embarrassed by him as anyone. 
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    not all of them. i'm sure there are ones that vote for trump simply because he has the R beside his name, and nothing else. they are probably just as embarrassed by him as anyone. 
    Those people probably will not lie to a pollster about it though. That's the point.
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 
    My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 
    My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 
    Oh man, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned her recently. Or maybe it was an aunt who was a shy Trump voter?
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again.  She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again.  She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.
    Same thing with mine! She voted for him but she's been disgusted with him for about 3 years now. Covid is just the icing on the cake (FIL, I think will still vote for him though)
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 
    My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 
    Oh man, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned her recently. Or maybe it was an aunt who was a shy Trump voter?
    It was my aunt. So if you're going to file away someone's previous post to suggest to someone else what their next post is going be, you should get it right. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 
    My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 
    Oh man, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned her recently. Or maybe it was an aunt who was a shy Trump voter?
    It was my aunt. So if you're going to file away someone's previous post to suggest to someone else what their next post is going be, you should get it right. 
    Oh Christ..  
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    edited September 23
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 
    My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 
    Oh man, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned her recently. Or maybe it was an aunt who was a shy Trump voter?
    It was my aunt. So if you're going to file away someone's previous post to suggest to someone else what their next post is going be, you should get it right. 
    Alrighty then. However, I did say "grandmom or somebody" so my point remains. But I am sorry your grandmom passed. Obviously I did not know that. 
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    lol
    Ah, yes, the famous "shy" Trump voter. 

    I'm of the opinion that there are more shy Biden voters. 
    I agree wholeheartedly with this. Almost everyone in my region and work (Indiana) will openly talk about trump as though they expect nobody to feel differently. There is an ornate inability for them to see anything objectively. Finding someone to discuss the pitfalls of trump or the positives of voting blue is a delicate process. One has to put a couple of small "feelers" out there and determine if the person is voting for Biden. Those who are going to vote for trump generally make it well known.

    I see trump signs everywhere. Big ones too - painted 4x8 plywood boards in yards. To date, I have seen exactly 2 Biden signs in my area. While my region is dark red. It is not 100:2. Therefore, I think there are absolutely more "shy" Biden supporters. The problem is ensuring they end up at the polls in 11-3.
    I can see that in a "dark red" region for sure. But remember, there's not much enthusiasm for Joe. Enthusiastic voters put signs in their yards. Call it "shyness" if ya want. But I also think there's a lot of "Well whatever, I guess I have to vote for Biden because Trump is awful" voters. Hell, I'm one of them, and was in 2016 for Hillary. We don't put signs in our yards for Joe. We look at the democratic party and say "You're lucky you're going against the worst incumbent president ever, or you wouldn't be getting my vote."
    Sorry, this is just straight up opinion with no basis in fact.  It's true that someone that puts up a sign is enthusiastic, but not true that people who don't put up signs aren't.  I've been Joe from the beginning, and have never in my 20+ years of voting eligibility have put up a sign or put on a bumper sticker.  in fact, in my suburban well to do neighborhood in Richmond, there is NOT ONE sign.  There wasn't one in 16 either.  I'm pretty sure someone in the neighborhood voted, and they may have even pushed the button with vigor and commitment, a sure sign of enthusiasm. 
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    edited September 23
    I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again.  She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.
    Same thing with mine! She voted for him but she's been disgusted with him for about 3 years now. Covid is just the icing on the cake (FIL, I think will still vote for him though)
    My FIL got pissed off at him early for doing away with some exotic animal hunting regulation....or something like that.

    He either won't vote or probably won't vote for tRump again.

    My sister in law and her husband are rabid tRumpster's though.  There is no getting them away from that cult.  

    It's funny because 8 years ago when Obama had just beaten Romney, I had a bet with her about how the economy wouldn't tank by the next Thanksgiving (2013)....she was convinced that the country would collapse under a 2nd Obama term.

    Of course that didn't happen and now the debt is skyrocketing....she doesn't care about that either for now.
    Post edited by Gern Blansten on
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
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