Auto-Save Draft feature temporarily disabled. Please be sure you manually save your post by selecting "Save Draft" if you have that need.

Nate Silver 538

145791026

Comments

  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 10,464
    I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics.  Lol.  people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 10,464
    I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again.  She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.
    My inlaws were seeing the light with Covid and the criminal mishandling of that....


    But now, they are fired up because 'they' are trying to eliminate the Lincoln and Jefferson Memorials (are they?) and refusing to watch the NFL, (although watched "some" in week 2), etc.  These people are always picked up at the usual bus stops by the dog whistles.
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, INPosts: 4,229
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 
    My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 
    Oh man, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned her recently. Or maybe it was an aunt who was a shy Trump voter?
    It was my aunt. So if you're going to file away someone's previous post to suggest to someone else what their next post is going be, you should get it right. 
    Alrighty then. However, I did say "grandmom or somebody" so my point remains. But I am sorry your grandmom passed. Obviously I did not know that. 
    No hard feelings over the grandmother thing. Obviously you couldn't know that. But your point doesn't remain because the "here's what he's going to cite..." stuff is bullshit. "He once cited...." would be reasonable enough. But actually my response to GernBlansten was to have been similar to my response to DarwinsTheory above; which is that I think the majority of supporters don't buy signs, fly flags, and literally "show" their support for their preferred candidate, whether it be Trump or whoever.
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 
    I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

    It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    edited September 23
    I'm a mortgage loan officer and, yeah, usually borrowers don't bring up politics. The ones who do though? Yep, Trump supporters.

    Incidentally, these are also always the people who object to me having to ask them their race, ethnicity and sex.
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 7,179
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 
    I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

    It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.
    Ditto for me. Live in Trump country so it would be impossible to have a discussion with any of them just based on the non-political conversations I've had and their obnoxiously overt appreciation for the guy and lack of belief in Covid.

    I Had to talk to my one neighbor last night because my son said the guy flicked him off and mouthed FU to him when he biked by after he waved. Walked over there and he's dragging his yard on a mower wearing his Trump 2020 No More BS shirt and holding a beer. Definitely half in the bag. Had no idea what I was talking about. He would never do that. Same guy that flies 2 Trump flags, one with him on a tank, and is also known to drive an electric cooler around the area sometimes. Different mentality.

    And when I did my taxes this year, the person preparing for me continually made comments about Trump and what he has done to help people. I just sat there and was thinking don't cut any corners please. I don't want an audit to discover some tax preparer decided it was ok to make some modest adjustments to get me more money back. 
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    I'm a mortgage loan officer and, yeah, usually borrowers don't bring up politics. The ones who do though? Yep, Trump supporters.

    Incidentally, these are also always the people who object to me having to ask them their race, ethnicity and sex.
    Sex?  Do I get to make up my own sex?  Hardy har fucking har. 
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 22,833
    tbergs said:
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 
    I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

    It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.
    Ditto for me. Live in Trump country so it would be impossible to have a discussion with any of them just based on the non-political conversations I've had and their obnoxiously overt appreciation for the guy and lack of belief in Covid.

    I Had to talk to my one neighbor last night because my son said the guy flicked him off and mouthed FU to him when he biked by after he waved. Walked over there and he's dragging his yard on a mower wearing his Trump 2020 No More BS shirt and holding a beer. Definitely half in the bag. Had no idea what I was talking about. He would never do that. Same guy that flies 2 Trump flags, one with him on a tank, and is also known to drive an electric cooler around the area sometimes. Different mentality.

    And when I did my taxes this year, the person preparing for me continually made comments about Trump and what he has done to help people. I just sat there and was thinking don't cut any corners please. I don't want an audit to discover some tax preparer decided it was ok to make some modest adjustments to get me more money back. 
    it's crazy how much americans identify with the political party they belong to or the politician they support. i don't think i've ever seen one solitary piece of ephemera with a politician's name on it in canada. 
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MNPosts: 2,930
    Yeah...Even when things were less crazy, debating people never really resulted in changing a lot of minds.  Now?  You're coming from totally different realities. If someone asks me a question that I believe is leading toward something potentially productive, sure, I'll engage.  But I don't start the ball rolling and I don't jump in on pro-Trump BS, be it in person or on-line.
    1995 Milwaukee
    1998 Alpine, Alpine
    2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston
    2004 Boston, Boston
    2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)
    2011 Alpine, Alpine
    2013 Wrigley
    2014 St. Paul
    2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley
    2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 7,559
    MayDay10 said:
    I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics.  Lol.  people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.
    That is a tough position to be in. I bet you want to be true to yourself and your beliefs but you know it is not worth the headache to even bother to engage. I open my mouth against conspiracy nuts and trumpers at work all the time. It gets me no wheres and really wish I did not interact as much as I do in the lunchroom. 
    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    mrussel1 said:
    I'm a mortgage loan officer and, yeah, usually borrowers don't bring up politics. The ones who do though? Yep, Trump supporters.

    Incidentally, these are also always the people who object to me having to ask them their race, ethnicity and sex.
    Sex?  Do I get to make up my own sex?  Hardy har fucking har. 
    "Well, last time I checked..."   

    "What the hell is this world coming to with these questions?"

    "DERRR, does it get me a better rate if I say female (or Hispanic or Black for the other questions)?



    These are quite popular responses. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 10,464
    edited September 23
    PJNB said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics.  Lol.  people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.
    That is a tough position to be in. I bet you want to be true to yourself and your beliefs but you know it is not worth the headache to even bother to engage. I open my mouth against conspiracy nuts and trumpers at work all the time. It gets me no wheres and really wish I did not interact as much as I do in the lunchroom. 
    Its just stupid.  I tried not to engage before in political talk since Obama because it has gotten too volatile.  I sense a new degree of hostility toward people who are for Biden or anyone else besides Trump.  I used to be able to find common ground with anyone and talk politics, but at this point its impossible because people are living in "Trump" ground where nothing else matters and there aren't any real issues.  Its just a bunch of bullshit Nationalistic concepts and attacks on information and media.  

    So I guess I am very closeted.  My wife too.  We both work in companies surrounded by Trumpers (at least the ones who are loud about it).  We dont really talk about it at all until we are at home and we vent to one another
    Post edited by MayDay10 on
  • static111static111 Posts: 1,366
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 
    I had one of these interactions today with a coworker because I couldn’t take the lies anymore.  Was told that I’m the one that doesn’t have the facts, lol then for a reason unknown to me He brought up Martin Luther king and was explaining some nonsense about how Martin Luther king never said rioting is the language of the unheard And what he really said was that rioting is bad and it makes fools of the movement.  so I pulled up a YouTube video of the speech he was trying to quote given by MLK In His own voice....”well that wasn’t the whole speech (editors note: it was the whole speech) they cut off the part they don’t want you to hear and that’s why you liberals don’t know the facts because you ve been brainwashed bro” or some nonsense....I’m still trying to figure out how questioning some pro trump anti mask propaganda got him to making up mlk quotes.  But like somebody just said. They bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.
  • static111static111 Posts: 1,366
    My interaction was somewhat like Fauci and Rand Paul.  https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1308799208208691202?s=12
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3

    I NEED to be nervous about trump winning. I really wish pollsters would release how they sample. My biggest question is have pollsters changed their demographic allocations based on how the actual 2016 vote turned out (have they adjusted for the significant 2016 democrat undervote?)

    But watching cnn and msnbc these days, all they do is whine all day how evil trump is. That feels a lot like 2016.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3

    I NEED to be nervous about trump winning. I really wish pollsters would release how they sample. My biggest question is have pollsters changed their demographic allocations based on how the actual 2016 vote turned out (have they adjusted for the significant 2016 democrat undervote?)

    But watching cnn and msnbc these days, all they do is whine all day how evil trump is. That feels a lot like 2016.
    Most pollsters release the cross tabs if you go to their site
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    mrussel1 said:
    I don't expect Biden to win Florida.  The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year.  The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ.  I'm not buying that one.  

    The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC. 

    If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

    If he loses PA  - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless? 

    And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    mrussel1 said:
    You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3

    I NEED to be nervous about trump winning. I really wish pollsters would release how they sample. My biggest question is have pollsters changed their demographic allocations based on how the actual 2016 vote turned out (have they adjusted for the significant 2016 democrat undervote?)

    But watching cnn and msnbc these days, all they do is whine all day how evil trump is. That feels a lot like 2016.
    Most pollsters release the cross tabs if you go to their site

    Thanks, not sure I know how to get to the fancy stuff like that
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    I found a PDF link in RCP for today’s ABC FL and AZ polls. This is not comforting:

    ” In both states, while Biden is strong among moderates, fewer liberals appear as likely voters compared with the 2016 exit polls. Conservatives account for nearly four in 10 voters; liberals, about two in 10.”

    how is it possible liberals are not energized to vote? 2 in 10 in these states. Ugh.
  • jeffbrjeffbr SeattlePosts: 7,163
    The Economist today said their model gives the Dems a 67% chance of flipping the Senate. That is every bit as important as getting Drumpf out of the WH. Perhaps it is even more important. With a Dem Senate and House, another impeachment would spell the end of Trump, legislation could survive vetoes, EOs could be undone legislatively, judicial appointments could be voted down, etc... At this point I'm more interested in the Senate races because I don't trust Trump or his administration with this presidential election. I'm voting Biden, but the country really needs to flip the Senate. 
    "I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 18,917
    I found a PDF link in RCP for today’s ABC FL and AZ polls. This is not comforting:

    ” In both states, while Biden is strong among moderates, fewer liberals appear as likely voters compared with the 2016 exit polls. Conservatives account for nearly four in 10 voters; liberals, about two in 10.”

    how is it possible liberals are not energized to vote? 2 in 10 in these states. Ugh.

    you are aware that 45% of the electorate are registered independent/unaffiliated right?

    so what label applies to them? nuanced thinkers? dont recall that being a choice in self-describing....
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    mrussel1 said:
    I don't expect Biden to win Florida.  The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year.  The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ.  I'm not buying that one.  

    The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC. 

    If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

    If he loses PA  - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless? 

    And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?
    I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.  
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 264
    MayDay10 said:
    PJNB said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics.  Lol.  people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.
    That is a tough position to be in. I bet you want to be true to yourself and your beliefs but you know it is not worth the headache to even bother to engage. I open my mouth against conspiracy nuts and trumpers at work all the time. It gets me no wheres and really wish I did not interact as much as I do in the lunchroom. 
    Its just stupid.  I tried not to engage before in political talk since Obama because it has gotten too volatile.  I sense a new degree of hostility toward people who are for Biden or anyone else besides Trump.  I used to be able to find common ground with anyone and talk politics, but at this point its impossible because people are living in "Trump" ground where nothing else matters and there aren't any real issues.  Its just a bunch of bullshit Nationalistic concepts and attacks on information and media.  

    So I guess I am very closeted.  My wife too.  We both work in companies surrounded by Trumpers (at least the ones who are loud about it).  We dont really talk about it at all until we are at home and we vent to one another
    I’ve been the same way the past four years.  You hear people at work talk about trump and you want to chime in and set the record straight but it gets you no where.  Trumpsters are in a complete different reality and it’s extremely difficult to even have a conversation with them.  It sucks because the incompetence is spreading in to all facets of life.  People don’t know what they are doing anymore in their jobs.  Expertise is losing ground to unwarranted confidence.  It’s maddening and sometimes you feel like your the only one.  But your not, we’re just not as loud as they are and that might be part of the problem.  I just recently discovered that a couple of my neighbors were just as frustrated with what’s happening as I am and it was really cathartic to be able to talk to someone else about it.
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, INPosts: 4,229
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 

    Theoretically..BUT the reality is that in 98 percent of the cases, they are not open to hearing my version of the truth. Even if i am willing to do the homework and prove it with evidence. They simply just say "fake news" or "hoax" or "HILLARY!" Their inability (or simple unwillingness) to even hold a common discussion or debate make it unbearable. 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I don't expect Biden to win Florida.  The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year.  The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ.  I'm not buying that one.  

    The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC. 

    If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

    If he loses PA  - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless? 

    And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?
    I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.  

     PA is loaded with no college whites who drool over  trump more than PJ fans drool over a McCready solo. If FL and NC go trump PA is a must.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 

    Theoretically..BUT the reality is that in 98 percent of the cases, they are not open to hearing my version of the truth. Even if i am willing to do the homework and prove it with evidence. They simply just say "fake news" or "hoax" or "HILLARY!" Their inability (or simple unwillingness) to even hold a common discussion or debate make it unbearable. 

    I'm in a blue state but perhaps a 50 50 suburb and people are starting to say they feel like they're in nazi Germany with the trump flags flying everywhere 
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 
    I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

    It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.

    You are a car parking attendant?
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 
    I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.
    He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

    Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

    A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

    It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 
    This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 
    I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

    It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.

    You are a car parking attendant?
    I'm a Certified Public Asshole
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
Sign In or Register to comment.