Nate Silver 538

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

i was in the car last night listening to talk radio (my wife was driving) and one of the people speaking about the upcoming election basically said how interesting it is that texas is likely going to be blue this time around, because (as we all know) rural areas tend to vote red and metro goes blue, so if the major cities in any particular state are growing faster than their rural areas, they will be leaning blue, and the opposite is true, in cities where they aren't growing as fast, tend to lean red. 

It will be interesting.

It is just odd to me that Obama won OH in 2008 AND 2012...then tRump wins in 2016 and leads again (as of now) in 2020.

There are tons of people in OH...it's the 7th largest state by population

stuckinline

I'm in North East Ohio, the trump campaign signs out number the Biden signs.

Gern Blansten

538 shows tRump with a 55% chance of winning OH right now.  50% Trump 49% Biden...so still close

The new Rasmussen poll for OH (rated C+ by 538) show Biden +4....that is interesting because Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster.  

The Morning Consult poll (rated B/C) shows tRump +5

tbergs

Gern Blansten said:

538 shows tRump with a 55% chance of winning OH right now.  50% Trump 49% Biden...so still close

The new Rasmussen poll for OH (rated C+ by 538) show Biden +4....that is interesting because Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster.  

The Morning Consult poll (rated B/C) shows tRump +5

Seems like Rasmussen might be trying to give the left false hope, sound the alarm for the diehards or a little bit of both.

FiveBelow

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

You understand that percentage includes people of Hispanic descent right? Non-Hispanic Whites make up only 41% of the population, Texas is easily one of the most diverse states in the country...easily.

eddiec

JW269453 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

You understand that percentage includes people of Hispanic descent right? Non-Hispanic Whites make up only 41% of the population, Texas is easily one of the most diverse states in the country...easily.

That's why it will eventually go blue.

DM656970

Lol at all the idiots that are gonna fall for the polls AGAIN!

Did you not learn anything in 2016?

Gern Blansten

DM656970 said:

Lol at all the idiots that are gonna fall for the polls AGAIN!

Did you not learn anything in 2016?

Really?

Here's what I learned.  The polls were basically right, they just didn't have time to correct for the Comey letter that came out a few days before the election.

Remember that your dear tRump only won by 77,000 votes spread over three states.  He got lucky.

DM656970

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

Gern Blansten

DM656970 said:

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

You are incorrect.  You are basing your opinion off of false narratives.

Nate Silver's national poll four years ago (close to election time) predicted a 2% advantage for Clinton. That is exactly what happened.  Luckily for tRump he eeked out the three states mentioned above courtesy of Comey.

Educate yourself please.

HughFreakingDillon

DM656970 said:

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

i will admit, i also thought this for a very long time. gern and juggler set me straight on the actual logistics and real numbers. 

just think about one small thing: why on earth would MSM, if they have an agenda for the democratic party as you claim, over-inflate Hillary's chances, thereby basically telling people they didn't need to vote, if in fact the polls were wrong?

if they had a democratic agenda, they would have been sounding the alarm that she was going to lose, making people go to the polls to vote. 

jeffbr

HughFreakingDillon said:

DM656970 said:

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

i will admit, i also thought this for a very long time. gern and juggler set me straight on the actual logistics and real numbers. 

just think about one small thing: why on earth would MSM, if they have an agenda for the democratic party as you claim, over-inflate Hillary's chances, thereby basically telling people they didn't need to vote, if in fact the polls were wrong?

if they had a democratic agenda, they would have been sounding the alarm that she was going to lose, making people go to the polls to vote. 

Absolutely!

gimmesometruth27

there are a lot more trump signs in my neighborhood than there were in 2016, which has me concerned that i am surrounded by a$$sholes. 

i did see a neighbor take a trump sign that was in his yard and pull it out of the ground. he then walked over to his trash can and threw it in there. he is an old vietnam vet. maybe the story last week was enough to change his mind. or he does not want to advertise that he is an idiot.

DM656970

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

gimmesometruth27

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

clinton won the popular vote by 3 million. that is consistent with most of the polling in the lead up to the election.

Hi!

Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot more Biden signs this last 10 days or so. Especially in Northern Michigan, which I guess could be considered Trump country, it seems to be trending Biden as far as signage. At this point in 2016, I’m willing to bet, the sign game was not as strong for Hillary as it is for Biden right now. I know it’s stupid to base anything off of signage but it is a measure IMO. 

The Trumpers are cheaters anyway. 8 fucking signs and ten flags in one yard? When they take down the Stars and Stripes and put up a Trump flag, they fucking mean it. Bunch a fucking traitors.

HughFreakingDillon

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

yep, because trump unexpectedly flipped a few key ridings. 77,000 votes out of 120 million. 

0.00064167 percent of votes. 

yep, WAY off. 

Gern Blansten

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

And again....the polls didn't have a chance to react to the Comey letter.  Silver's model is based on polls.

And you realize how % work right?  That means tRump had a 28.6% chance to win.  Lucky for him right?

static111

Hi! said:

Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot more Biden signs this last 10 days or so. Especially in Northern Michigan, which I guess could be considered Trump country, it seems to be trending Biden as far as signage. At this point in 2016, I’m willing to bet, the sign game was not as strong for Hillary as it is for Biden right now. I know it’s stupid to base anything off of signage but it is a measure IMO. 

The Trumpers are cheaters anyway. 8 fucking signs and ten flags in one yard? When they take down the Stars and Stripes and put up a Trump flag, they fucking mean it. Bunch a fucking traitors.

Originally from The Straights Area, last time I was home some of the people that were very pro trump seemed to have come to their senses...I only hope they don’t get reduped before Election Day.

Hi!

static111 said:

Hi! said:

Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot more Biden signs this last 10 days or so. Especially in Northern Michigan, which I guess could be considered Trump country, it seems to be trending Biden as far as signage. At this point in 2016, I’m willing to bet, the sign game was not as strong for Hillary as it is for Biden right now. I know it’s stupid to base anything off of signage but it is a measure IMO. 

The Trumpers are cheaters anyway. 8 fucking signs and ten flags in one yard? When they take down the Stars and Stripes and put up a Trump flag, they fucking mean it. Bunch a fucking traitors.

Originally from The Straights Area, last time I was home some of the people that were very pro trump seemed to have come to their senses...I only hope they don’t get reduped before Election Day.

Yeah, I’m cautiously optimistic about Michigan.  Straights area? Is that Cheboygan area?