Nate Silver 538

HughFreakingDillon

DM656970 said:

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

i will admit, i also thought this for a very long time. gern and juggler set me straight on the actual logistics and real numbers. 

just think about one small thing: why on earth would MSM, if they have an agenda for the democratic party as you claim, over-inflate Hillary's chances, thereby basically telling people they didn't need to vote, if in fact the polls were wrong?

if they had a democratic agenda, they would have been sounding the alarm that she was going to lose, making people go to the polls to vote. 

jeffbr

HughFreakingDillon said:

DM656970 said:

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

i will admit, i also thought this for a very long time. gern and juggler set me straight on the actual logistics and real numbers. 

just think about one small thing: why on earth would MSM, if they have an agenda for the democratic party as you claim, over-inflate Hillary's chances, thereby basically telling people they didn't need to vote, if in fact the polls were wrong?

if they had a democratic agenda, they would have been sounding the alarm that she was going to lose, making people go to the polls to vote. 

Absolutely!

gimmesometruth27

there are a lot more trump signs in my neighborhood than there were in 2016, which has me concerned that i am surrounded by a$$sholes. 

i did see a neighbor take a trump sign that was in his yard and pull it out of the ground. he then walked over to his trash can and threw it in there. he is an old vietnam vet. maybe the story last week was enough to change his mind. or he does not want to advertise that he is an idiot.

DM656970

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

gimmesometruth27

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

clinton won the popular vote by 3 million. that is consistent with most of the polling in the lead up to the election.

Hi!

Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot more Biden signs this last 10 days or so. Especially in Northern Michigan, which I guess could be considered Trump country, it seems to be trending Biden as far as signage. At this point in 2016, I’m willing to bet, the sign game was not as strong for Hillary as it is for Biden right now. I know it’s stupid to base anything off of signage but it is a measure IMO. 

The Trumpers are cheaters anyway. 8 fucking signs and ten flags in one yard? When they take down the Stars and Stripes and put up a Trump flag, they fucking mean it. Bunch a fucking traitors.

HughFreakingDillon

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

yep, because trump unexpectedly flipped a few key ridings. 77,000 votes out of 120 million. 

0.00064167 percent of votes. 

yep, WAY off. 

Gern Blansten

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

And again....the polls didn't have a chance to react to the Comey letter.  Silver's model is based on polls.

And you realize how % work right?  That means tRump had a 28.6% chance to win.  Lucky for him right?

static111

Hi! said:

Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot more Biden signs this last 10 days or so. Especially in Northern Michigan, which I guess could be considered Trump country, it seems to be trending Biden as far as signage. At this point in 2016, I’m willing to bet, the sign game was not as strong for Hillary as it is for Biden right now. I know it’s stupid to base anything off of signage but it is a measure IMO. 

The Trumpers are cheaters anyway. 8 fucking signs and ten flags in one yard? When they take down the Stars and Stripes and put up a Trump flag, they fucking mean it. Bunch a fucking traitors.

Originally from The Straights Area, last time I was home some of the people that were very pro trump seemed to have come to their senses...I only hope they don’t get reduped before Election Day.

Hi!

static111 said:

Hi! said:

Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot more Biden signs this last 10 days or so. Especially in Northern Michigan, which I guess could be considered Trump country, it seems to be trending Biden as far as signage. At this point in 2016, I’m willing to bet, the sign game was not as strong for Hillary as it is for Biden right now. I know it’s stupid to base anything off of signage but it is a measure IMO. 

The Trumpers are cheaters anyway. 8 fucking signs and ten flags in one yard? When they take down the Stars and Stripes and put up a Trump flag, they fucking mean it. Bunch a fucking traitors.

Originally from The Straights Area, last time I was home some of the people that were very pro trump seemed to have come to their senses...I only hope they don’t get reduped before Election Day.

Yeah, I’m cautiously optimistic about Michigan.  Straights area? Is that Cheboygan area?

static111

Hi! said:

static111 said:

Hi! said:

Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot more Biden signs this last 10 days or so. Especially in Northern Michigan, which I guess could be considered Trump country, it seems to be trending Biden as far as signage. At this point in 2016, I’m willing to bet, the sign game was not as strong for Hillary as it is for Biden right now. I know it’s stupid to base anything off of signage but it is a measure IMO. 

The Trumpers are cheaters anyway. 8 fucking signs and ten flags in one yard? When they take down the Stars and Stripes and put up a Trump flag, they fucking mean it. Bunch a fucking traitors.

Originally from The Straights Area, last time I was home some of the people that were very pro trump seemed to have come to their senses...I only hope they don’t get reduped before Election Day.

Yeah, I’m cautiously optimistic about Michigan.  Straights area? Is that Cheboygan area?

We went to cheboygan to get our groceries at the B&C if you remember that?  My first good pizza was at Papa J’s...as for Michigan.  I think welcoming that Rick Snyder endorsement didn’t help his support in some places

Hi!

I don’t know much about that area, I’m from west MI) but I just camped at Cheboygan State Park this last weekend and biked and hiked NCST. It was really nice. Walked around town and vaped heavily first night I was there😎.

Hi!

Hi!

Yeah, Snyder endorsement doesn’t move needle either way really.

static111

Hi! said:

Hmmm Bryant street bridge? I really don’t remember all the street names in town as I was out in the sticks.  Northern Michigan in summer is hard to beat

Hi!

static111 said:

Hi! said:

Hmmm Bryant street bridge? I really don’t remember all the street names in town as I was out in the sticks.  Northern Michigan in summer is hard to beat

Not sure, just main drawbridge in downtown area. I thought the clouds were pretty, lol. Yeah, I’ve been all over the state this year and just floored by the beauty. I almost don’t want to tell anyone, keep it a secret, lol. The UP is amazing. I must of visited and hiked 15 of the most beautiful falls you have ever seen. 

Hi!

Lerxst1992

Gern Blansten said:

Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly

Biden's at 76 now (at 9/15)

Is that a good thing or is this starting to smell like 2016?

tbergs

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly

Biden's at 76 now (at 9/15)

Is that a good thing or is this starting to smell like 2016?

I think if you factor in what you are hearing locally with neighbors, co-workers and friends and these polls, it is the reverse this time. While the odds of Trump getting re-elected are close to what 538 gave him last time, his +/- 30% of winning is less likely to be the outcome. I mean, the same crazy people I know who voted for Trump last time haven't wavered, but I have heard waaaaay more positive vocal support for Biden and barely any talk of voting 3rd party or picking the lesser of two evils bullshit we heard last time. Based on all of that information, I am not overly concerned. It is just hard to fathom that there is still so much support for this idiot.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly

Biden's at 76 now (at 9/15)

Is that a good thing or is this starting to smell like 2016?

As long as people vote we are good.  The virus doesn't help but I would assume that GOP votes would be influenced worse than Dems.  The tRumpsters in my area are VERY confident of a tRump win.  They do not seem to have any worry or concern whatsoever.

Lerxst1992

tbergs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly

Biden's at 76 now (at 9/15)

Is that a good thing or is this starting to smell like 2016?

I think if you factor in what you are hearing locally with neighbors, co-workers and friends and these polls, it is the reverse this time. While the odds of Trump getting re-elected are close to what 538 gave him last time, his +/- 30% of winning is less likely to be the outcome. I mean, the same crazy people I know who voted for Trump last time haven't wavered, but I have heard waaaaay more positive vocal support for Biden and barely any talk of voting 3rd party or picking the lesser of two evils bullshit we heard last time. Based on all of that information, I am not overly concerned. It is just hard to fathom that there is still so much support for this idiot.

My concern is that FL AZ NC WI is enough to get trump reelected. Its very easy to see trump taking those 4 states. 

And if trump does that, Bidens only path may be one of the red CDs in ME or NE. Or IA, which seems a long shot.

Gern Blansten

Biden just needs WI and PA....right now he's up like 7 in WI and 4 in PA.

If Biden wins FL it's all over for tRump.  That is like Biden +2 right now but Silver gives Biden a 60% chance of winning FL today

OnWis97

Yeah, he's right.  This looks like 2016 all over again. Trum

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly

Biden's at 76 now (at 9/15)

Is that a good thing or is this starting to smell like 2016?

As long as people vote we are good.  The virus doesn't help but I would assume that GOP votes would be influenced worse than Dems.  The tRumpsters in my area are VERY confident of a tRump win.  They do not seem to have any worry or concern whatsoever.

Trumpsters have unprecedented devotion; they think it's an honor to vote for him.  They'll be voting.  And they also think the virus is a hoax.  I'd say the worse impact is on less-than-enthused Biden voters.

mrussel1

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

Anyone that works for Huffington is going to skew far to the left.  It's just like listening to a 'data scientist' at Brietbart.  71% is not exactly 100% and 302 EV is not a landslide either.  538 did a good job overall.  The gap was insufficient state polling, not the national data. How are those 'blue glasses'?

OnWis97

mrussel1 said:

DM656970 said:

Natalie Jackson, a data scientist at the Huffington Post, had given Clinton a 98% chance of winning

Nate Silver has Hilary at a 71.4% chance of winning the day of the election

And had Hillary winning with 302 electoral votes

Maybe you need to take your blue glasses off

Anyone that works for Huffington is going to skew far to the left.  It's just like listening to a 'data scientist' at Brietbart.  71% is not exactly 100% and 302 EV is not a landslide either.  538 did a good job overall.  The gap was insufficient state polling, not the national data. How are those 'blue glasses'?

I agree that 538 did a good job.  She had smallish leads in a few states, so  a possible though less than likely swing to Trump made sense.  That (combined with my cynicism and pessimism) is why I thought Trump was going to win. But like you said, 71% should not have anyone sleeping easy.  I'm not really sure how all those 90% + Hillary projections came about, "data science" wise, but those always seemed unrealistic to me, as you looked at the tight states, the trump fervor, and the Dem candidate with 25 years of being hated.

In any case, Trumpies can go ahead and thump their chests about those polls and these polls, whatever; but the rest of us better remember them, too.  It's really starting to feel like 2016 right now. 

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

Biden just needs WI and PA....right now he's up like 7 in WI and 4 in PA.

If Biden wins FL it's all over for tRump.  That is like Biden +2 right now but Silver gives Biden a 60% chance of winning FL today

Yeah we're looking good heading into the last 49 days. Florida and those crafty Cuban Hispanics are a bit disappointing but AZ and MI are looking good. MN and WI are proving the law and order nonsense isn't working. I wish PA looked better, but Biden has looked good in the most recent polling here...

Bloomberg's about to pour $100 million into Florida too. That will certainly help. 

Gern Blansten

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden just needs WI and PA....right now he's up like 7 in WI and 4 in PA.

If Biden wins FL it's all over for tRump.  That is like Biden +2 right now but Silver gives Biden a 60% chance of winning FL today

Yeah we're looking good heading into the last 49 days. Florida and those crafty Cuban Hispanics are a bit disappointing but AZ and MI are looking good. MN and WI are proving the law and order nonsense isn't working. I wish PA looked better, but Biden has looked good in the most recent polling here...

Bloomberg's about to pour $100 million into Florida too. That will certainly help. 

yep...and Bloomberg will be employing the ads that fuck with tRump's narcissism.  It's going to be beautiful.

Gern Blansten

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

Hot damn! 

I was just coming here to post that. "Law and Order" my ass....

Gern Blansten

WI looks solid