Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
Big kudos and thanks for being a poll worker and watcher! My sister is doing the same and I am proud of you and her both!
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?
It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it.
If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next.
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?
It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it.
If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next.
Or am I fucking this up somehow?
I was given different information. I requested a mail-in ballot, but then decided I didn't want it. I had to email some election official to tell them not to send me a mail-in ballot. If I hadn't done that, and received the mail-in ballot, I would've had to bring the mail-in ballot with me to the polls, then sign some sort of affidavit surrendering the mail-in ballot to be allowed to vote in person. Or so I was told anyway.
My wife requested absentee and received it last month, but with all the fuckery about mail in ballots, she decided to vote early and in person with me today. We forgot her absentee ballot, but they had it in the system as being sent, so the election official "spoiled" it and asked her to destroy it when she got home. She was then allowed to vote. When we got home I shredded the absentee ballot. I don't know if that's what they were supposed to do, but that was our experience.
My wife requested absentee and received it last month, but with all the fuckery about mail in ballots, she decided to vote early and in person with me today. We forgot her absentee ballot, but they had it in the system as being sent, so the election official "spoiled" it and asked her to destroy it when she got home. She was then allowed to vote. When we got home I shredded the absentee ballot. I don't know if that's what they were supposed to do, but that was our experience.
That's the reasonable thing for the election official to do, but I think they could've denied your wife if they wanted to. And a partisan election official that has reason to believe your wife was going to vote for the person the official doesn't support, likely would've denied her.
My wife requested absentee and received it last month, but with all the fuckery about mail in ballots, she decided to vote early and in person with me today. We forgot her absentee ballot, but they had it in the system as being sent, so the election official "spoiled" it and asked her to destroy it when she got home. She was then allowed to vote. When we got home I shredded the absentee ballot. I don't know if that's what they were supposed to do, but that was our experience.
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
Big kudos and thanks for being a poll worker and watcher! My sister is doing the same and I am proud of you and her both!
Thanks! Anybody out there on the interwebs reading this: we need more of yous! Too many elderly that I'd rather not die!
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?
It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it.
If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next.
Or am I fucking this up somehow?
It's very confusing, and sorry if I'm making it worse lol. This would apply to anyone who received an absentee/mail-in ballot. When you mean she "requested the absentee form" do you mean she requested the application and just didn't do anything with it? That's what it sounds like you're saying. If so, that's meaningless and, yes, doesn't matter - they can get in line to vote. But once you fill out that application, it's processed, and you receive it then this would apply to you.
I think the State (Dems, mostly) worried more about the "naked ballot" issue than this issue and it's going to be a problem. Hopefully I'm wrong. I know talking to my dad (lives in Pottstown), he's like, "I couldn't find the drop box at MCCC. Forget it, I'm just going to vote in person." This is someone who knows to vote, but isn't informed on this stuff. I had to tell him it wasn't that easy.
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?
It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it.
If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next.
Or am I fucking this up somehow?
I was given different information. I requested a mail-in ballot, but then decided I didn't want it. I had to email some election official to tell them not to send me a mail-in ballot. If I hadn't done that, and received the mail-in ballot, I would've had to bring the mail-in ballot with me to the polls, then sign some sort of affidavit surrendering the mail-in ballot to be allowed to vote in person. Or so I was told anyway.
That probably matches. The devotion of those that respond Trump is higher.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
That probably matches. The devotion of those that respond Trump is higher.
That is the first + Biden poll for awhile....glad to see it.
Yeah...nice to see it in play. Ohio is one of "those" states. I think it's been a while since the winner lost that state.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
Big kudos and thanks for being a poll worker and watcher! My sister is doing the same and I am proud of you and her both!
Thanks! Anybody out there on the interwebs reading this: we need more of yous! Too many elderly that I'd rather not die!
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?
It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it.
If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next.
Or am I fucking this up somehow?
It's very confusing, and sorry if I'm making it worse lol. This would apply to anyone who received an absentee/mail-in ballot. When you mean she "requested the absentee form" do you mean she requested the application and just didn't do anything with it? That's what it sounds like you're saying. If so, that's meaningless and, yes, doesn't matter - they can get in line to vote. But once you fill out that application, it's processed, and you receive it then this would apply to you.
I think the State (Dems, mostly) worried more about the "naked ballot" issue than this issue and it's going to be a problem. Hopefully I'm wrong. I know talking to my dad (lives in Pottstown), he's like, "I couldn't find the drop box at MCCC. Forget it, I'm just going to vote in person." This is someone who knows to vote, but isn't informed on this stuff. I had to tell him it wasn't that easy.
Yeah that's what I meant, the application. Lol. Maybe I'm wrong, but I kinda feel like if people took the next step of filling out the application and actually sending it in that they will be more informed about how the process works. But I guess older people like your pops would be the exception.
Assuming Trump loses, one of the good things that will come of this election and the mess of the last four years is more widespread mail in/voting early all around the country. Obviously it should become easier the more times we do it
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.
I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.
This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.
I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.
This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.
If the lead exceeds the votes to be counted in the rural counties, they'll call it. Happens all the time.
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.
I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.
This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.
If the lead exceeds the votes to be counted in the rural counties, they'll call it. Happens all the time.
Yup, they can use historical data and exit polling to make calls. It's not all doom.
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.
I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.
This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.
I have less issue with Philly processing the ballots. Admittedly, Philly was a clusterfuck for the primary. That's because 1) the entire no excuse mail in ballot process was brand new and rolled out in a pandemic in which smaller counties just don't have the kind of turnout or population like Philly; 2) the city shut down like 80% of voting locations and consolidated. It was a circus. I know, I was there, just awful.
But this time the actual count won't be an issue. It's just the apprehension I have regarding communication and voter lines.
I don't see it taking more than till the end of the week for the count. Dems will get out to a lead, then big R lead from there, then massive Dem roar back after all ballots counted. And he'll scream rigged, I think we all know this is how it'll play out.
Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.
I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one.
Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.
Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.
That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. You could not make it more complicated if you wanted, plus they’re a minefield for lawsuits.
I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.
This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.
I have less issue with Philly processing the ballots. Admittedly, Philly was a clusterfuck for the primary. That's because 1) the entire no excuse mail in ballot process was brand new and rolled out in a pandemic in which smaller counties just don't have the kind of turnout or population like Philly; 2) the city shut down like 80% of voting locations and consolidated. It was a circus. I know, I was there, just awful.
But this time the actual count won't be an issue. It's just the apprehension I have regarding communication and voter lines.
I don't see it taking more than till the end of the week for the count. Dems will get out to a lead, then big R lead from there, then massive Dem roar back after all ballots counted. And he'll scream rigged, I think we all know this is how it'll play out.
I’m hoping it doesn’t even matte and the election starts breaking big for Biden cause this is going to leave too much up to fuckery. This is why I wish the dems would have just went full force on voting early in person. Fuck all this noise about if you requested a ballot you have to bring it in, has to be postmarked by a certain date, won’t begin counting until after Election Day, etc... I work with people who can’t even figure out email. You think they are going to be able to figure out the correct process for mail in voting? Just make sure your vote is actually counting and your vote is not being considered as provisional because provisional votes almost never get counted.
Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-
If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close- PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.
Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.
Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-
If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close- PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.
Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.
All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.
Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-
If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close- PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.
Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.
All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.
I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.
Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-
If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close- PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.
Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.
All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.
I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.
I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.
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Big kudos and thanks for being a poll worker and watcher! My sister is doing the same and I am proud of you and her both!
It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it.
If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next.
Or am I fucking this up somehow?
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It's very confusing, and sorry if I'm making it worse lol. This would apply to anyone who received an absentee/mail-in ballot. When you mean she "requested the absentee form" do you mean she requested the application and just didn't do anything with it? That's what it sounds like you're saying. If so, that's meaningless and, yes, doesn't matter - they can get in line to vote. But once you fill out that application, it's processed, and you receive it then this would apply to you.
I think the State (Dems, mostly) worried more about the "naked ballot" issue than this issue and it's going to be a problem. Hopefully I'm wrong. I know talking to my dad (lives in Pottstown), he's like, "I couldn't find the drop box at MCCC. Forget it, I'm just going to vote in person." This is someone who knows to vote, but isn't informed on this stuff. I had to tell him it wasn't that easy.
538 has it 50/50 right now
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
That probably matches. The devotion of those that respond Trump is higher.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Yeah...nice to see it in play. Ohio is one of "those" states. I think it's been a while since the winner lost that state.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Assuming Trump loses, one of the good things that will come of this election and the mess of the last four years is more widespread mail in/voting early all around the country. Obviously it should become easier the more times we do it
gulp...
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I took a closer look at that 538 article, what I missed is they did an analysis based on the spring primaries and it took Philly 2 weeks to count all the mail ballots, while the small red counties were able to count right away.
This is so infuriating. The small govt R counties get more taxpayer resources per capita and count 95% faster. This could be a rough two weeks upcoming with trump screaming stop the counting for two weeks if PA does turn out to be the tipping point state and the dem votes are not yet counted.
But this time the actual count won't be an issue. It's just the apprehension I have regarding communication and voter lines.
I don't see it taking more than till the end of the week for the count. Dems will get out to a lead, then big R lead from there, then massive Dem roar back after all ballots counted. And he'll scream rigged, I think we all know this is how it'll play out.
https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/10/court-will-not-weigh-in-on-pennsylvanias-mail-in-ballot-deadline-before-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
If counties are waiting till the 4th to count ballots then it may totally be within the realm of possibility of SCOTUS disqualifying those votes.
If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana