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2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

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    amethgr8amethgr8 Posts: 766

    amethgr8 said:

    someone else splained it like everyones name goes into a giant lottery for all the shows and they pull a name and then assign them their #1 priority.

    That's pretty much the opposite of what happens.
    I beg to differ. If you look back at 2013 and see what people ended up with, some got 5th pick GA. I think they randomly draw names and fill 1st pick, whatever that show is. Then the name goes back in the pot.

    There just are not enough GA tickets to make it to 2nd pick, maybe 2nd pick, but not 5th pick. This is the only theory that kind of makes sense.
    Amy The Great #74594
    New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
    Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
    08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
    Champaign IL 4/23/03
    Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
    Grand Rapids MI 19May06
    Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
    PJ 20 2011
    Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
    St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
    Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
    Missoula MT 2018
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    my2handsmy2hands Posts: 17,117
    amethgr8 said:

    amethgr8 said:

    someone else splained it like everyones name goes into a giant lottery for all the shows and they pull a name and then assign them their #1 priority.

    That's pretty much the opposite of what happens.
    I beg to differ. If you look back at 2013 and see what people ended up with, some got 5th pick GA. I think they randomly draw names and fill 1st pick, whatever that show is. Then the name goes back in the pot.

    There just are not enough GA tickets to make it to 2nd pick, maybe 2nd pick, but not 5th pick. This is the only theory that kind of makes sense.
    This would explain how I lost Philly 2 Reserved as my #1 choice, and SVRDhand13 won that exact selection as his 8th choice, or something crazy like that?
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    pawlowski1097pawlowski1097 Philadelphia, PA Posts: 571
    edited January 2016
    Fellas I'm putting in for the best tickets possible for my 1st choice if I win cool if not there is always ticket master. Even if I end up in the last row upstairs of msg, I'll just get loaded and have the time of my life and annoy the shit out of everyone else around me. Hahah
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    amethgr8amethgr8 Posts: 766
    2013 someone got LA1 GA as their 3rd choice and Phoenix GA as their 7th choice. Another member won Philly 2 GA as a 3rd pick.

    Amy The Great #74594
    New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
    Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
    08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
    Champaign IL 4/23/03
    Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
    Grand Rapids MI 19May06
    Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
    PJ 20 2011
    Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
    St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
    Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
    Missoula MT 2018
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    buck502000buck502000 Birthplace of GIBSON guitar Posts: 8,951
    It's called the lotterrrrrrryyyyyy!!!!!
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    I have lost count of the number of times I have changed my picks.

    Still wondering, if I pick a MSG show for my first, second, third pick, and fourth picks, then I get my first pick - I am figuring I am out of the next three rounds of drawings for any show. Does anyone think my fifth pick would move up to my second pick since my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th are no longer eligible for a ticket?
    Again, I know we are all just guessing for most of this and I am certainly guilty of over thinking on this subject. I can't wait until Monday.
    well, fuckers, he still stands
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    Leezestarr313Leezestarr313 Temple of the cat Posts: 14,346
    I don't think your picks move up.
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    I don't think your picks move up.

    Sure would be nice if it did! That would throw a whole new twist into how to make the most sense of these odds.
    well, fuckers, he still stands
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    DSTRUBDSTRUB Posts: 290
    My lotto picks:

    Jacksonville GA #1
    Tampa GA. #2
    Miami Reserved#3

    Think I have a shot at the Miami reserved??
    2013= Wrigley 1, Dallas, OKC
    2014= Amsterdam 1&2, St. Louis, Lincoln, Detroit, Moline, Denver
    2015= Mexico City
    2016= Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Lexington, MSG1, Fenway1, Wrigley 2&3
    2017= EV @ Ohana
    2018= London 1, Boarderline, Seattle 1&2, Missoula MT, Wrigley 4&5
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    Q: How does the show priority selection factor in to the drawing?
    A: For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold. Please keep in mind that not everyone can have their #1 priority. Priority rank is merely a consideration.
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    Do we know for sure that Ten Club tickets are awarded using members' pick priorities? In other words say there are 500 GA tickets available for a given show and 1000 requests for tickets but only 400 of those requests are first choice. Are those 400 members assured tickets before the remaining 100 tickets are drawn among members who entered a lower priority for that given show?
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    Do we know for sure that Ten Club tickets are awarded using members' pick priorities? In other words say there are 500 GA tickets available for a given show and 1000 requests for tickets but only 400 of those requests are first choice. Are those 400 members assured tickets before the remaining 100 tickets are drawn among members who entered a lower priority for that given show?

    Yes. That is correct.
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    cutzcutz Posts: 11,450

    What do 10c lottery winners do that are going to the show solo do?

    What do 10c lottery winners do that are going to the show solo do?

    I've sold my extra to fellow 10C members, at face value of course.
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    cutzcutz Posts: 11,450
    FrankieG said:

    What do 10c lottery winners do that are going to the show solo do?

    Find a ticket buddy! You win tickets for night #1. They win tickets for night #2. You trade extras and have a great time at the show!

    Or go through TM! I did this last year in Philly and ended up with really great seats.
    Or do it this way. Good advice.
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    Holly9075Holly9075 Newfoundland, Canada Posts: 195
    a5pj said:

    3days said:

    FrankieG said:

    Did I dream that I read somewhere that they aren't allocating back of the floor tickets to 10club anymore? Or was that real? I cant find it anymore...

    That was real. 10c said they listened to feedback, and try to keep fanclub seats closest on the floor, or in lower raised sections closer to the stage. Can't remember where I saw that.
    It's on the tour info page somewhere, says something like very few tix behind ga will be used or something
    glad to hear that! :bee:

    Mexico City 28/11/15   Chicago 20/08/16    Boston 04/09/2018
    Quebec City 05/05/16  Chicago 22/08/16
    Ottawa 08/05/16          Taormina 26/06/17
    Toronto 10/05/16         Taormina 27/06/17
    Toronto 11/05/16         Boston 02/09/2018

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    100 Pacer100 Pacer Toronto, ON Posts: 8,543
    image
    To quote the 10C from Newsletter #8: "Please understand we have a lot of members and it is very hard to please everybody. If you are one of those unhappy people...please call 1-900-IDN-TCAR."

    "Me knowing the truth, I can not concur."

    1996: Toronto - 1998: Chicago, Montreal, Barrie - 2000: Montreal, Toronto - 2002: Seattle X2 (Key Arena) - 2003: Cleveland, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Seattle (Benaroya Hall) - 2004: Reading, Toledo, Grand Rapids - 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Quebec City - 2006: Toronto X2, Albany, Hartford, Grand Rapids, Cleveland - 2007: Chicago (Vic Theatre) - 2008: NYC X2, Hartford, Mansfield X2 - 2009: Toronto, Chicago X2, Seattle X2, Philadelphia X4 - 2010: Columbus, Noblesville, Cleveland, Buffalo, Hartford - 2011: Montreal, Toronto X2, Ottawa, Hamilton - 2012: Missoula - 2013: London, Chicago, Buffalo, Hartford - 2014: Detroit, Moline - 2015: NYC (Global Citizen Festival) - 2016: Greenville, Toronto X2, Chicago 1 - 2017: Brooklyn (RRHOF Induction) - 2018: Chicago 1, Boston 1 - 2022: Fresno, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto, NYC, Camden - 2023: St. Paul X2, Austin X2 - 2024: Vancouver X2, Portland, Sacramento, Noblesville, Philadelphia X2, Baltimore
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    my2handsmy2hands Posts: 17,117
    lol
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    mdaryamdarya The middle Posts: 68
    my2hands said:

    I sat in the very last row, literally all the way up in the last row of the back, in Montreal 2005... and I had the time of my life

    Was anyone at the Baltimore show in 2013. There was a guy in the last row of the stadium. Ed pointed him out; at the end of the show he was on the stage with the band for RITFW. It was awesome.

    The seat is irrelevant, make the most of where you are.
    06 Cincinnati
    10 Columbus, Noblesville
    11 Toronto-1
    13 Pittsburgh, Baltimore
    14 Cincinnati
    16 Lexington, Wrigley 1
    17 EV-Louisville
    18 Rome, Missoula, Wrigley 1, Boston 1
    22 Nasville, STL
    23 Ft Worth 1/2
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    EddieshometownEddieshometown Evanston, IL Posts: 974
    edited January 2016
    These were the odds about a week before the drawing of the 2014 tour

    Cincinnati, OH - GA Standing 44%
    Cincinnati, OH - Reserved Seating 30%
    St Louis, MO - GA Standing 27%
    St Louis, MO - Reserved Seating 54%
    Tulsa, OK - Reserved Seating 99%
    Tulsa, OK - GA Standing 47%
    Lincoln, NE - GA Standing 84%
    Lincoln, NE - Reserved Seating 99%
    Memphis, TN - GA Standing 52%
    Memphis, TN - Reserved Seating 99%
    Detroit, MI - Reserved Seating 52%
    Detroit, MI - GA Standing 14%
    Moline, IL - GA Standing 26%
    Moline, IL - Reserved Seating 23%
    St. Paul, MN - GA Standing 36%
    St. Paul, MN - Reserved Seating 50%
    Milwaukee, WI - GA Standing 25%
    Milwaukee, WI - Reserved Seating 37%
    Denver, CO - GA Standing 31%
    Denver, CO - Reserved Seating 38%

    I was able to get Milwaukee-Reserved 1st pick and Stl-Reserved 2nd pick. Went with a friend of mine for Moline-GA
    Post edited by Eddieshometown on
    6/26/98 & 6/27/98 - Alpine Valley, 10/9/00 - Allstate Arena - Rosemont, IL 6/18/2003 - United Center, 5/16/2006 - United Center,
    5/17/2006 - United Center (7th row center, caught Eddie's pick), 6/29/2006 - Summerfest with Tom Petty,
    8/24/2009 - United Center, 7/19/2013 - Wrigley Field, 10/3/2014 - St Louis, 10/17/2014 - Moline (GA), 10/20/2014 - Milwaukee,
    5/14/2015 - Pete Townshend/EV, 8/20/16 & 8/22/16 Wrigley Field Part 2&3, 8/18/18 & 8/20/18 Wrigley Parts 4 & 5, 9/18/2022 - St Louis
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    gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,405
    There were fewer shows this 2014 leg, more peeps entering each show so lower odds....that doesn't really have any bearing on what's going on now.
    THe odds were lower ONLY due to fewer options.
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    EddieshometownEddieshometown Evanston, IL Posts: 974
    I think everyone who tried for Stl-Reserved as their 2nd choice got it even though the odds were 54%.
    6/26/98 & 6/27/98 - Alpine Valley, 10/9/00 - Allstate Arena - Rosemont, IL 6/18/2003 - United Center, 5/16/2006 - United Center,
    5/17/2006 - United Center (7th row center, caught Eddie's pick), 6/29/2006 - Summerfest with Tom Petty,
    8/24/2009 - United Center, 7/19/2013 - Wrigley Field, 10/3/2014 - St Louis, 10/17/2014 - Moline (GA), 10/20/2014 - Milwaukee,
    5/14/2015 - Pete Townshend/EV, 8/20/16 & 8/22/16 Wrigley Field Part 2&3, 8/18/18 & 8/20/18 Wrigley Parts 4 & 5, 9/18/2022 - St Louis
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    BLACK35BLACK35 Hanover, Ontario Posts: 22,480
    I got St. Louis reserved with my 3rd choice
    2005 - London
    2009 - Toronto
    2010 - Buffalo
    2011 - Toronto 1&2
    2013 - London, Pittsburgh, Buffalo
    2014 - Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit
    2016 - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Ottawa, Toronto 1
    2018 - Fenway 1&2
    2022 - Hamilton, Toronto
    2023 - Chicago 1&2
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    SaravaSarava Naperville, IL Posts: 1,998

    I think everyone who tried for Stl-Reserved as their 2nd choice got it even though the odds were 54%.

    Yeah I messed up on that one. I went 1) Moline GA, 2) St. Louis GA, 3) Moline reserved, 4) St. Louis reserved. Only got my Molina GA. I didn't understand how it worked as well back then. Ended up spending $300 at stubhub for a pair of tickets to St. Louis.
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    Pearl34JamPearl34Jam TN Posts: 1,102
    mdarya said:

    my2hands said:

    I sat in the very last row, literally all the way up in the last row of the back, in Montreal 2005... and I had the time of my life

    Was anyone at the Baltimore show in 2013. There was a guy in the last row of the stadium. Ed pointed him out; at the end of the show he was on the stage with the band for RITFW. It was awesome.

    The seat is irrelevant, make the most of where you are.
    That was an awesome moment. The dude was going nuts the whole show and Ed finally rewarded him.

    And then Jeff stormed off the stage...but let's forget that
    "Must I keep explaining my decisions to you strangers of the Internet?" - Merch tent 8/19/16

    '13: 10/27 Baltimore
    '15: 9/26 New York City
    '16: 4/16 Greenville (VS!), 4/26 Lexington, 4/28 Philly, 8/20 Wrigley
    '18: 9/02 Fenway
    '22: 9/16 Nashville
    ’24: 8/26 Noblesville, 9/12 Baltimore
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    100 Pacer100 Pacer Toronto, ON Posts: 8,543

    mdarya said:

    my2hands said:

    I sat in the very last row, literally all the way up in the last row of the back, in Montreal 2005... and I had the time of my life

    Was anyone at the Baltimore show in 2013. There was a guy in the last row of the stadium. Ed pointed him out; at the end of the show he was on the stage with the band for RITFW. It was awesome.

    The seat is irrelevant, make the most of where you are.
    That was an awesome moment. The dude was going nuts the whole show and Ed finally rewarded him.

    And then Jeff stormed off the stage...but let's forget that
    Remind me: was that because Ed didn't give Jeff a shout out?
    To quote the 10C from Newsletter #8: "Please understand we have a lot of members and it is very hard to please everybody. If you are one of those unhappy people...please call 1-900-IDN-TCAR."

    "Me knowing the truth, I can not concur."

    1996: Toronto - 1998: Chicago, Montreal, Barrie - 2000: Montreal, Toronto - 2002: Seattle X2 (Key Arena) - 2003: Cleveland, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Seattle (Benaroya Hall) - 2004: Reading, Toledo, Grand Rapids - 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Quebec City - 2006: Toronto X2, Albany, Hartford, Grand Rapids, Cleveland - 2007: Chicago (Vic Theatre) - 2008: NYC X2, Hartford, Mansfield X2 - 2009: Toronto, Chicago X2, Seattle X2, Philadelphia X4 - 2010: Columbus, Noblesville, Cleveland, Buffalo, Hartford - 2011: Montreal, Toronto X2, Ottawa, Hamilton - 2012: Missoula - 2013: London, Chicago, Buffalo, Hartford - 2014: Detroit, Moline - 2015: NYC (Global Citizen Festival) - 2016: Greenville, Toronto X2, Chicago 1 - 2017: Brooklyn (RRHOF Induction) - 2018: Chicago 1, Boston 1 - 2022: Fresno, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto, NYC, Camden - 2023: St. Paul X2, Austin X2 - 2024: Vancouver X2, Portland, Sacramento, Noblesville, Philadelphia X2, Baltimore
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    CorkscrewCorkscrew Rochester, NY Posts: 13
    Looking at the current odds, it seems like there is zero interest in 3 or 4 of these shows. Obviously, they'll all sell out, but I'm questioning so many Florida shows so close together. Also, Quebec City is only an hour from Ottawa. Not a lot of Ten Club interest in that show, either.
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    BeerBaronBeerBaron Toronto-ish Posts: 4,089
    Corkscrew said:

    Also, Quebec City is only an hour from Ottawa. Not a lot of Ten Club interest in that show, either.

    If you drive 300 mph and hit no red lights or traffic.

    1996: Toronto 1998: Barrie 2000: Saratoga Springs 2003: Buffalo, Toronto 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto 2006: Toronto x2, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Gorge #1 2007: London, Dusseldorf, Vic, Lolla 2008: WPB, Tampa, DC, MSG x2, Hartford, Boston x2, Beacon 2009: Toronto, Chicago x2, Seattle x2, LA #3&4, San Diego, Philly x4 2010: Cleveland, Buffalo, Hartford 2011: Montreal, Toronto x2, Hamilton 2012: Missoula 2013: London, Wrigley, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Hartford, Dallas, OKC
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    FrankieGFrankieG Abingdon MD Posts: 9,095
    All,

    I would appreciate if someone would check to see if this makes sense. I tried to figure out the true odds that you will win a pair of tickets to Philadelphia. Please let me know what you think:

    Thread Here: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/249130/which-ticket-entries-option-for-the-2-philadelphia-shows-describes-you-the-best-updated-w-math

    Google Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L59TB34xSfPD9k38ZdC32VrJr1ylqxbLpKJN11oyWnE/edit?usp=sharing
    2003: 7/14 NJ ... 2006: 6/1 NJ, 6/3 NJ ... 2007: 8/5 IL ... 2008: 6/24 NY, 6/25 NY, 8/7 EV NJ ... 2009: 10/27 PA, 10/28 PA, 10/30 PA, 10/31 PA
    2010: 5/20 NY, 5/21 NY ... 2011: 6/21 EV NY, 9/3 WI, 9/4 WI ... 2012: 9/2 PA, 9/22 GA ... 2013: 10/18 NY, 10/19 NY, 10/21 PA, 10/22 PA, 10/27 MD
    2015: 9/23 NY, 9/26 NY ... 2016: 4/28 PA, 4/29 PA, 5/1 NY, 5/2 NY, 6/11 TN, 8/7 MA, 11/4 TOTD PA, 11/5 TOTD PA ... 2018: 8/10 WA ---- http://imgur.com/a/nk0s7
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    FrankieGFrankieG Abingdon MD Posts: 9,095
    FrankieG said:

    All,

    I would appreciate if someone would check to see if this makes sense. I tried to figure out the true odds that you will win a pair of tickets to Philadelphia. Please let me know what you think:

    Thread Here: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/249130/which-ticket-entries-option-for-the-2-philadelphia-shows-describes-you-the-best-updated-w-math

    Google Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L59TB34xSfPD9k38ZdC32VrJr1ylqxbLpKJN11oyWnE/edit?usp=sharing

    Also forgot to add, if anyone has a better way to estimate the number of people that were in GA, please let me know!
    2003: 7/14 NJ ... 2006: 6/1 NJ, 6/3 NJ ... 2007: 8/5 IL ... 2008: 6/24 NY, 6/25 NY, 8/7 EV NJ ... 2009: 10/27 PA, 10/28 PA, 10/30 PA, 10/31 PA
    2010: 5/20 NY, 5/21 NY ... 2011: 6/21 EV NY, 9/3 WI, 9/4 WI ... 2012: 9/2 PA, 9/22 GA ... 2013: 10/18 NY, 10/19 NY, 10/21 PA, 10/22 PA, 10/27 MD
    2015: 9/23 NY, 9/26 NY ... 2016: 4/28 PA, 4/29 PA, 5/1 NY, 5/2 NY, 6/11 TN, 8/7 MA, 11/4 TOTD PA, 11/5 TOTD PA ... 2018: 8/10 WA ---- http://imgur.com/a/nk0s7
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    gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,405
    FrankieG said:

    All,

    I would appreciate if someone would check to see if this makes sense. I tried to figure out the true odds that you will win a pair of tickets to Philadelphia. Please let me know what you think:

    Thread Here: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/249130/which-ticket-entries-option-for-the-2-philadelphia-shows-describes-you-the-best-updated-w-math

    Google Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L59TB34xSfPD9k38ZdC32VrJr1ylqxbLpKJN11oyWnE/edit?usp=sharing

    OVERTHINKING a LOTTERY...good luck...
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