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2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

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    chitownp76chitownp76 Posts: 1,439
    Got GA for night#2. May be going solo if anyone has tix to Night 1
    2014: Moline, IL
    2015: EV Solo (Metro Chicago)
    2016: Philadelphia PA 1, Philadelphia PA 2, New York City NY- MSG 1, EV Solo (Metro Chicago), Boston MA Fenway 1, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2
    2017: EV Ohana Fest (Dana Point, CA), EV/Pete Townshend Quadrophenia Rosemont, IL
    2018: Seattle WA 1, Seattle WA 2, Missoula MT, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2, Boston MA Fenway 1, Boston MA Fenway 2
    2019: EV Tempe, AZ
    2020: PPD
    2022: EV & Earthlings Chicago 1 & 2, Phoenix AZ, Camden NJ, Nashville TN, St. Louis MO
    2023: EV Tempe, AZ, St Paul, MN 2, Chicago 1 & 2
    2024: Noblesville, IN, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2
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    cutzcutz Posts: 11,450
    bootlegger10 said:

    cutz said:

    burgebc said:

    image

    You took this when the drawing was close to ending? I

    If so, thanks, as i was wondering what the odds were when the drawing was coming close to an end(I wasn't around my computer around that time it was ending)
    This matches what I copied at 10:01am PST from the website.
    Kool>Thanks.

    I was very curious what the odds were when the drawing was coming close to an end.

    I wonder why the 10C just didn't leave the Final odds on ther?>Oh well, glad to see someone on here was on the ball for me>LOL

    Thanks again.
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    melva02melva02 Posts: 298
    JB111896 said:



    What they probably do is what many people on the forum have already explained. They first take all the people who picked GA for show #1 with their first priority pick. If they have 500 pairs of GA tickets available, but 800 people requested GA for that show with their first pick they randomly select 500 people from the 800 entries and those people win GA for that show. Nobody who picked GA with any other picks will get GA for that show. If however instead of 800 people picking GA with their first pick, let's assume there was only 300 people who picked GA for that show with their first pick. In this case, all 300 people who picked GA as their first choice will get GA for that show. The Ten Club will then look at how many people picked GA as their second pick to distribute the 200 remaining tickets available. If 400 people picked GA for that show with their second pick they will then randomly pick 200 people out of the 400 entries and those people will also win GA for that show. If fewer then 200 people picked GA for that show with their second choice then everyone who did would win GA tickets and the remainder will go to people who had it as their third pick. This continues until all GA tickets for that show have been allocated. They then do the same thing for the GA tickets to show #2 through the last show of the tour. Then they do the same thing for the Reserved seats. It's an easy process that takes 40 drawings for a 20 show tour instead of the 100,000 with the other theory.

    It would be reasonable to write software to do it the other way - pick a person, give them their highest-priority not-sold-out ticket, then repeat until all tickets are given up. (And if you pick a person whose picks are all sold out, drop them from the pool.) Once you're writing a loop, the actual lottery would be fairly straightforward no matter what algorithm you use.

    There would be business rules to contend with, like ensuring all of GA is filled, and those could be handled in a variety of ways (e.g. if GA isn't filled, move people from seats to GA even if they preferred seats, but that's only one way to handle that).

    But your description seems to match the ticket faq. I see two ways they could have handled priority: 1) give everyone a chance at their highest-priority available show (pick from all people and fill shows all at once based on people's picks) or 2) favor people who gave this show a high priority (fill up one show at a time starting with people who put it highest priority). The faq suggests they chose option 2, favoring people based on their selected priority.

    That seems in keeping with Ten Club's emphasis on the benefits of membership and seniority. But it does make strategy a lot more complex than option 1.
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    MalrothMalroth broken down chevrolet Posts: 2,485
    If I haven't won by now, have I lost already?
    The worst of times..they don't phase me,
    even if I look and act really crazy.
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    Mignelli14Mignelli14 Posts: 626
    Malroth said:

    If I haven't won by now, have I lost already?

    Don't think so. Your results were probably made at the same time as the first person to find out, they just haven't reached you yet.
    I hope.
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    MalrothMalroth broken down chevrolet Posts: 2,485
    Mignelli14 said:

    Malroth said:

    If I haven't won by now, have I lost already?

    Don't think so. Your results were probably made at the same time as the first person to find out, they just haven't reached you yet.
    I hope.
    Limbo of Doom
    The worst of times..they don't phase me,
    even if I look and act really crazy.
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    rssesqrssesq Fairfield County Posts: 3,299
    the waiting drove......
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    DFBrooksDFBrooks Posts: 80
    Anyone remember what the odds were for MSG, reserved?
    I got id
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    ehbaconehbacon Posts: 1,964
    very interested to see what the reserved odds will be for Wrigley.

    Put in for Night 2 (first choice) and Night 1 (2nd Choice) reserved, my first lottery! Good luck everyone!
    Listen to some of my music here (if you want to): [url="My soundcloud"]
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    Vedd HeddVedd Hedd Posts: 4,505
    Reserved will always be a better bet than GA.
    Turn this anger into
    Nuclear fission
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    dimitrispearljamdimitrispearljam NINUNINOPRO Posts: 139,158
    Vedd Hedd said:

    Reserved will always be a better bet than GA.

    in usa yes,in europe is the opposite..they have alot ga and a few seated only
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
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    Vedd HeddVedd Hedd Posts: 4,505
    dimitrispearljam said:

    Vedd Hedd said:

    Reserved will always be a better bet than GA.

    in usa yes,in europe is the opposite..they have alot ga and a few seated only
    Good point. GA is much bigger there.

    But yeah, if you put GA as your 1 and 2 options here...dont complain when you get shut out.
    Turn this anger into
    Nuclear fission
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    ehbaconehbacon Posts: 1,964
    also does this mean that people with the highest number start in the field or people with the lowest number start in the field?
    Reserved seated tickets are assigned to members based on seniority in the Ten Club and will start down on the field extending back.
    Listen to some of my music here (if you want to): [url="My soundcloud"]
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    PJNBPJNB Posts: 12,813
    ehbacon said:

    also does this mean that people with the highest number start in the field or people with the lowest number start in the field?

    Reserved seated tickets are assigned to members based on seniority in the Ten Club and will start down on the field extending back.
    It would have to be lowest on the field. What I am not sure of is if the back of the field is still considered better then lower seats in the stands.
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    ehbaconehbacon Posts: 1,964
    yeah for tall people I would say the field is better, but no doubt for short people the bowl is better... not sure how fair that is but I won't question it (I'm not that tall, so the bowl would be better)
    Listen to some of my music here (if you want to): [url="My soundcloud"]
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    Pearl34JamPearl34Jam TN Posts: 1,102
    I'm gonna enter for both Wrigley shows sometime this week. Probably gonna go for reserved only
    "Must I keep explaining my decisions to you strangers of the Internet?" - Merch tent 8/19/16

    '13: 10/27 Baltimore
    '15: 9/26 New York City
    '16: 4/16 Greenville (VS!), 4/26 Lexington, 4/28 Philly, 8/20 Wrigley
    '18: 9/02 Fenway
    '22: 9/16 Nashville
    ’24: 8/26 Noblesville, 9/12 Baltimore
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    NeverbeenLedbetterNeverbeenLedbetter Posts: 213
    The odds seem to be holding pretty strong early on, almost guaranteed in some cases. Interested to see if they stay that way through the weekend. The fact that the 10c tix are actually more per pair than the some of the public sale tix might indicate that there is a larger chunk of tix reserved by 10c. With our (member) apparent demand/clamor, 10c might have been able to negotiate for a larger number of tix, while still bringing in as much per pair or even more than a public sale offering. Total speculation, but we shall see!
    Raleigh '03; Hartford '08; Mansfield II '08; Buffalo '10; Hartford '10;
    East Troy I '11; East Troy II '11; DeLuna Fest '12; Wrigley '13; Buffalo '13;
    Toronto II '16; Wrigley I '16; Wrigley II '16; Wrigley I '18; Wrigley II '18;
    Asbury Park '21; MSG '22; Camden '22
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    cutzcutz Posts: 11,450
    edited February 2016
    DFBrooks said:

    Anyone remember what the odds were for MSG, reserved?

    MSG-1 >17%
    MASG-2>19%
    Post edited by cutz on
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