2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

RoleModelsinBlood31

Figured since this is a completely new gizmo for this tour's fan club lotto, it deserves its own thread. Discuss all things ODDS in here.

RoleModelsinBlood31

I really like this addition. It will definitely keep me from working this next week while I watch the numbers change

Leezestarr313

Gotta admit, I kind of hate it It feels like gambling. I know there is always the public sale, but I like having my ducks in a row. I also like GA though. Decisions, decisions.

Leezestarr313

And it is not new, it was there since the lottery started!

PJfanwillneverleave1

^^^
Yeah, I remember seeing it for the 2013 lottery.
Never gave it much attention though.
It is interesting though. And it shows the odds for everyone who enters said show.
If you had 5% odds of getting tix for a show would you enter or go with TM instead?
Hard to say.

SVRDhand13

I thought it was added in 2014? I don't remember it in 2013.

RoleModelsinBlood31

Really? Huh maybe I just never saw it before. Doh! Carry on tho, we can still discuss the changes

Mignelli14

MSG and toronto ga's are going hot man. Wow. And it's still the first day. I have a feeling they'll get to single digits by monday. Or has 95% of the 10c already chosen, do you guys think?

Leezestarr313

I think I'm not gonna start watching the percentage. I guess this needs to be approached like gambling. I you feel frisky, go for the risky choice. If not, try the "safe" choice. Anyway, we might all lose. We did lose for all our choices in the last US tour. This is gonna be a long week. Damn you, PJ

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Alright.......% odds question-

If a show is 50% GA and then 99% reserved, does this mean.....for example, you have a 50/50 shot of being selected for GA? (meaning twice as many people have selected GA than is available)

But then if you aren't selected for GA, you have basically a lock of receiving at least reserved seats, because not as many people have selected those as are available? No matter what selection number the reserved was selected?

Does that make sense?

MayDay10

I posted this question in the tour thread. Hoping someone can answer it or at least come up with strong speculation:

So if a show is <99%... then there is no way to get that as a second choice?

So if my list is:
1. Asstown 36%
2. Fuckland 78%
3. Shittsburgh 67%

then Fuckland and Shittsburgh are both a waste of time to put on there?

Is that right? Having a % <99% means that for people's 1st choices, it will be tapped, right?

AlaG

front spacer said:

Alright.......% odds question-

If a show is 50% GA and then 99% reserved, does this mean.....for example, you have a 50/50 shot of being selected for GA? (meaning twice as many people have selected GA than is available)

But then if you aren't selected for GA, you have basically a lock of receiving at least reserved seats, because not as many people have selected those as are available? No matter what selection number the reserved was selected?

Does that make sense?

Yup. However, I don't know if that would be the case if the percentage dropped below 99%. That would lead me to believe they have a little less than enough tickets to cover the people who listed reserved seating as their 1st priority.

SVRDhand13

Does the percentage calculate odds of your first choice or every choice?

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SVRDhand13 said:

Does the percentage calculate odds of your first choice or every choice?

I believe it is EVERY selection for that type of ticket that has been made.....regardless of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice.

Mignelli14

What I've surmised is that you have to use your 1st choice very wisely. Basically the odds of you ending up with multiple GA's at in-demand concerts is low because the majority of the GA's allocated for those shows will be dried up by people using their 1st choices. At a less popular show you can probably get GA's with 2, 3, maybe 4. It seems like this makes it hard for people to get multiple GA's.

jeff2040

SVRDhand13 said:

Does the percentage calculate odds of your first choice or every choice?

I think all choices alter the odds the same. I could put MSG1 GA as my first choice and then MSG2 GA as my 15th choice and they would both bring down the percentages the same. Obviously there would be no way of winning with that with my 15th choice but I did win Lincoln reserved last year with my 8th choice because the odds were still at 99%. Making something your first choice gives you the best chance at winning and the high demand shows are almost worthless to choose GA with anything less than your first choice.

Leezestarr313

I think in one of the last tours it happened that people got GA with their sixth choice or so. Wasn't it the case with the last Philly show that it was actually pretty easy to get tickets in the end?

Sarava

Does anyone remember what percentage Moline ended up being at for GA? I think MSG is already way lower (with 5 days to go still), but maybe I'm remembering wrong.

AlaG

front spacer said:

SVRDhand13 said:

Does the percentage calculate odds of your first choice or every choice?

I believe it is EVERY selection for that type of ticket that has been made.....regardless of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice.

Which may mean that your odds of getting into one of the two-nighters, assuming you listed one as your 1st priority, are substantially higher than the form currently reflects. For instance, say 50% of East Coast Ten Clubbers are going for Night 1 at MSG as 1st priority and the other 50% are going for Night 2 as 1st priority, but both groups of people naturally list the other night as 2nd priority, knowing that they can't be billed for both shows anyways. This would bring the odds down by 200% what they'd actually be again assuming you have the show listed as first priority.

Not entirely confident this is how it works though.

SVRDhand13

Leezestarr313 said:

I think in one of the last tours it happened that people got GA with their sixth choice or so. Wasn't it the case with the last Philly show that it was actually pretty easy to get tickets in the end?

Philly reserved night 2 was given out to many people (including myself) way down their list

It was my ninth choice and the only thing I won

Seemed fluky to me

BeerBaron

SVRDhand13 said:

Leezestarr313 said:

I think in one of the last tours it happened that people got GA with their sixth choice or so. Wasn't it the case with the last Philly show that it was actually pretty easy to get tickets in the end?

Philly reserved night 2 was given out to many people (including myself) way down their list

It was my ninth choice and the only thing I won

Seemed fluky to me

Yeah, I recall this with all of the cities with multiple shows. Wasn't there even "second chance" GA made available for Worcester 2 after its lottery closed?

The odds can be a bit deceiving. My understanding is this...

Let's say my choices are as follows:
#1 - NYC #1 GA Standing
#2 - Philly #1 GA Standing
#3 - NYC #2 - GA Standing
#4 - Philly #2 - GA Standing
#5 - NYC #1 Reserved
#6 - Philly #1 Reserved
#7 - NYC #2 - Reserved
#8 - Philly #2 - Reserved

I have made 8 choice above. The odds system (I believe) adds me to the denominator in the calculation for all 8 types of tickets, however, I have limitations that restrict me to only being able to win a maximum of TWO sets of tickets in total for these 4 shows.

The same holds true for someone who lives in NYC and only wants to see a local show and enter all 4 tickets types. They can only win ONE set of tickets, but their entry is considered an entry for all 4 types of NYC tickets.

Am I correct in my assumptions above?

Sarava

AlaG said:

front spacer said:

SVRDhand13 said:

Does the percentage calculate odds of your first choice or every choice?

I believe it is EVERY selection for that type of ticket that has been made.....regardless of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice.

Which may mean that your odds of getting into one of the two-nighters, assuming you listed one as your 1st priority, are substantially higher than the form currently reflects. For instance, say 50% of East Coast Ten Clubbers are going for Night 1 at MSG as 1st priority and the other 50% are going for Night 2 as 1st priority, but both groups of people naturally list the other night as 2nd priority, knowing that they can't be billed for both shows anyways. This would bring the odds down by 200% what they'd actually be again assuming you have the show listed as first priority.

Not entirely confident this is how it works though.

In addition to what you said, many of them might have both selections (GA and Reserved) for both nights. So really their entries might be bringing odds down on 4 selections, but they can only win one.

Like you though, I suspect this isn't how it works. That would make the 10 club dude who runs this mathematically challenged, and I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they aren't

RiotZact

Ok so my uncle and I did the exact mirror image of each other for each night in Philly. He went Reserved Thursday, GA Thursday, Reserved Friday, GA Friday. Then I did Reserved Friday, GA Friday, Reserved Thursday, GA Thursday. So are we pretty much just wasting our second priority slots by putting GA as anything other than priority 1?

buck502000

^probably - do you want tickets?

Hanzel20

Are they still doing the 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round etc drawing like last time? Like, you only have a chance of getting your 2nd choice if everyone who picked that show as a 1st got a ticket? Last time this was explained, but this time it's not. It says "every eligible Member has the same chance to be drawn for the same show," so I'm wondering if the rounds thing has changed.

Sarava

RiotZact said:

Ok so my uncle and I did the exact mirror image of each other for each night in Philly. He went Reserved Thursday, GA Thursday, Reserved Friday, GA Friday. Then I did Reserved Friday, GA Friday, Reserved Thursday, GA Thursday. So are we pretty much just wasting our second priority slots by putting GA as anything other than priority 1?

Yeah I think you are.

2 years ago I wasted my 2nd slot. I did Moline Ga as 1st priority, and St. Louis GA as 2nd priority. Then St. Louis reserved as 3rd priority. I only got the Moline GA. Where I heard a lot of people got St. Louis reserved with their 2nd choice. That mistake cost me an extra $150 or so when I had to buy St. Louis tickets on stubhub.

RoleModelsinBlood31

BeerBaron said:

SVRDhand13 said:

Leezestarr313 said:

I think in one of the last tours it happened that people got GA with their sixth choice or so. Wasn't it the case with the last Philly show that it was actually pretty easy to get tickets in the end?

Philly reserved night 2 was given out to many people (including myself) way down their list

It was my ninth choice and the only thing I won

Seemed fluky to me

Yeah, I recall this with all of the cities with multiple shows. Wasn't there even "second chance" GA made available for Worcester 2 after its lottery closed?

The odds can be a bit deceiving. My understanding is this...

Let's say my choices are as follows:
#1 - NYC #1 GA Standing
#2 - Philly #1 GA Standing
#3 - NYC #2 - GA Standing
#4 - Philly #2 - GA Standing
#5 - NYC #1 Reserved
#6 - Philly #1 Reserved
#7 - NYC #2 - Reserved
#8 - Philly #2 - Reserved

I have made 8 choice above. The odds system (I believe) adds me to the denominator in the calculation for all 8 types of tickets, however, I have limitations that restrict me to only being able to win a maximum of TWO sets of tickets in total for these 4 shows.

The same holds true for someone who lives in NYC and only wants to see a local show and enter all 4 tickets types. They can only win ONE set of tickets, but their entry is considered an entry for all 4 types of NYC tickets.

Am I correct in my assumptions above?

Yep, that's how I understand it

AlaG

BeerBaron said:

SVRDhand13 said:

Leezestarr313 said:

I think in one of the last tours it happened that people got GA with their sixth choice or so. Wasn't it the case with the last Philly show that it was actually pretty easy to get tickets in the end?

Philly reserved night 2 was given out to many people (including myself) way down their list

It was my ninth choice and the only thing I won

Seemed fluky to me

Yeah, I recall this with all of the cities with multiple shows. Wasn't there even "second chance" GA made available for Worcester 2 after its lottery closed?

The odds can be a bit deceiving. My understanding is this...

Let's say my choices are as follows:
#1 - NYC #1 GA Standing
#2 - Philly #1 GA Standing
#3 - NYC #2 - GA Standing
#4 - Philly #2 - GA Standing
#5 - NYC #1 Reserved
#6 - Philly #1 Reserved
#7 - NYC #2 - Reserved
#8 - Philly #2 - Reserved

I have made 8 choice above. The odds system (I believe) adds me to the denominator in the calculation for all 8 types of tickets, however, I have limitations that restrict me to only being able to win a maximum of TWO sets of tickets in total for these 4 shows.

The same holds true for someone who lives in NYC and only wants to see a local show and enter all 4 tickets types. They can only win ONE set of tickets, but their entry is considered an entry for all 4 types of NYC tickets.

Am I correct in my assumptions above?

You won't win tickets to any of those shows as a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. choice. Ticket allotment goes to individuals who listed 1st priority and then IF there is any left over, they draw for individuals who listed it as 2nd priority and on. Considering the hype for this tour, and the limited number of shows in comparison to the 2013 tour, none of these drawings will make it past the 1st round. I'd reset your priority for one of the Philly shows if you absolutely want GA (still not a guarantee but you probably have a 50/50 shot) and if you can't stand dealing with Ticketmaster or scalpers, scrapping GA entirely and going for Reserved Seating. Still a gamble with those MSG shows.

RoleModelsinBlood31

AlaG said:

BeerBaron said:

SVRDhand13 said:

Leezestarr313 said:

I think in one of the last tours it happened that people got GA with their sixth choice or so. Wasn't it the case with the last Philly show that it was actually pretty easy to get tickets in the end?

Philly reserved night 2 was given out to many people (including myself) way down their list

It was my ninth choice and the only thing I won

Seemed fluky to me

Yeah, I recall this with all of the cities with multiple shows. Wasn't there even "second chance" GA made available for Worcester 2 after its lottery closed?

The odds can be a bit deceiving. My understanding is this...

Let's say my choices are as follows:
#1 - NYC #1 GA Standing
#2 - Philly #1 GA Standing
#3 - NYC #2 - GA Standing
#4 - Philly #2 - GA Standing
#5 - NYC #1 Reserved
#6 - Philly #1 Reserved
#7 - NYC #2 - Reserved
#8 - Philly #2 - Reserved

I have made 8 choice above. The odds system (I believe) adds me to the denominator in the calculation for all 8 types of tickets, however, I have limitations that restrict me to only being able to win a maximum of TWO sets of tickets in total for these 4 shows.

The same holds true for someone who lives in NYC and only wants to see a local show and enter all 4 tickets types. They can only win ONE set of tickets, but their entry is considered an entry for all 4 types of NYC tickets.

Am I correct in my assumptions above?

You won't win tickets to any of those shows as a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. choice. Ticket allotment goes to individuals who listed 1st priority and then IF there is any left over, they draw for individuals who listed it as 2nd priority and on. Considering the hype for this tour, and the limited number of shows in comparison to the 2013 tour, none of these drawings will make it past the 1st round. I'd reset your priority for one of the Philly shows if you absolutely want GA (still not a guarantee but you probably have a 50/50 shot) and if you can't stand dealing with Ticketmaster or scalpers, scrapping GA entirely and going for Reserved Seating. Still a gamble with those MSG shows.

Exactly. I think what he's talking about is the odds % tho. In other words every single time someone adds an item (ga or reserved) it changes the odds % listed, regardless of whether they're only allowed 1 set of tix. In other words like he said, picking NY 4 times will change the odds % listed but since he can only get 1 of those 4, the odds % will show lower than it actually is.

JV275432

If I want tickets to at least one MSG show I'm wondering if I'd be better off picking reserved as first choice vs GA. Got shut out for Barclays in 2013 doing GA/standing/GA/standing for my four choices.

Leezestarr313

What happens if someone chooses GA for choice 5 and 6 etc... Is this also changing the odds overall? I know it does not really make sense to make those choices, but you never know and odd things have happened in the past.