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2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

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    Everyone seems to be asking the same kind of question and no one really knows the answer. Let me try to pose it another way.

    (True) Scenario:
    I want to go to one of the Philly shows in any way shape or form. I do REALLY REALLY want GA -preferably April 29.

    So ignoring the odds, this is how I should pick:

    CHOICE 1: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing
    CHOICE 2: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing
    CHOICE 3: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating
    CHOICE 4: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating


    However, I don't want to get completely shut out of both shows either. So should I take the odds into consideration and pick this way?:

    CHOICE 1: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating 46%
    CHOICE 2: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- Reserved Seating 36%
    CHOICE 3: April 28 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing 20%
    CHOICE 4: April 29 - Philadelphia, PA- GA Standing 16%


    Anyone know? Bueller?

    You are only allowed to win tickets for 1 show. Right?
    With that being said, if it were me, I would have reserved seats as my 1st 2 choices.
    I would be more than thrilled to be in the building.
    I would be more than thrilled with the reserved seats that my 10club number got me. (Like everyone here was for 20 years, until GA turned everyone in to a bunch of ding-a-lings)

    Get your reserved seats.
    Have a wonderful time at the show.

    In other words, look at the lottery as just that, a lottery.

    You are assigned a ping pong ball. You allow your ping pong ball to go into the big spinning bucket for GA seats.

    When the lottery begins, and they start drawing those ping pong balls, your ping ball may just sit in that bucket for an hour, dying a long ugly death, while all the reserved tickets are being distributed. You know what I mean? Not only are you not drawn for a GA seat, but as you waited, all the reserved tickets were also taken.

    Putting GA as your 1st 2 choices, may just be a guarantee that you end up with NOTHING.
    Well said my friend.
    A few years ago(I think it was the last Wrigley show), the day after tons of people were shut out for tickets, I remember I gave that ping pong ball analogy.

    It was sad to see people realize that by putting in for GA, they basically shut themselves out altogether.

    I look at NYC, and Philly the same as Wrigley 2013.
    Its an extremely difficult ticket. Don't obsess over GA.
    Give yourself the BEST chance to just get into the building.
    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • Options
    Pearl34JamPearl34Jam TN Posts: 1,102
    I need to stop myself from refreshing the ticket odds page every few minutes. I'm over-thinking this way too much
    "Must I keep explaining my decisions to you strangers of the Internet?" - Merch tent 8/19/16

    '13: 10/27 Baltimore
    '15: 9/26 New York City
    '16: 4/16 Greenville (VS!), 4/26 Lexington, 4/28 Philly, 8/20 Wrigley
    '18: 9/02 Fenway
    '22: 9/16 Nashville
    ’24: 8/26 Noblesville, 9/12 Baltimore
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    FrankieGFrankieG Abingdon MD Posts: 9,095

    What do 10c lottery winners do that are going to the show solo do?

    Find a ticket buddy! You win tickets for night #1. They win tickets for night #2. You trade extras and have a great time at the show!

    Or go through TM! I did this last year in Philly and ended up with really great seats.
    2003: 7/14 NJ ... 2006: 6/1 NJ, 6/3 NJ ... 2007: 8/5 IL ... 2008: 6/24 NY, 6/25 NY, 8/7 EV NJ ... 2009: 10/27 PA, 10/28 PA, 10/30 PA, 10/31 PA
    2010: 5/20 NY, 5/21 NY ... 2011: 6/21 EV NY, 9/3 WI, 9/4 WI ... 2012: 9/2 PA, 9/22 GA ... 2013: 10/18 NY, 10/19 NY, 10/21 PA, 10/22 PA, 10/27 MD
    2015: 9/23 NY, 9/26 NY ... 2016: 4/28 PA, 4/29 PA, 5/1 NY, 5/2 NY, 6/11 TN, 8/7 MA, 11/4 TOTD PA, 11/5 TOTD PA ... 2018: 8/10 WA ---- http://imgur.com/a/nk0s7
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    my2handsmy2hands Posts: 17,117
    There is another way of looking at it...

    You can't buy GA Pit tickets... they are not sold to the general public at all... you can buy a reserved ticket in multiple ways whenever you want... I completely understand why people go for the GA tickets
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    kosteva2kosteva2 Posts: 287
    FrankieG said:

    What do 10c lottery winners do that are going to the show solo do?

    Find a ticket buddy! You win tickets for night #1. They win tickets for night #2. You trade extras and have a great time at the show!

    Or go through TM! I did this last year in Philly and ended up with really great seats.
    That's what I do. Have a friend who is also in 10C that goes to shows with me. With the multiple night/same city shows like Philly and NYC we just put in the opposite order and has worked every time that between the 2 of us we get all the shows.

    TFC '97, TFC '98, Pittsburgh '98, Camden I,II '98, Camden I,II '00, Pittsburgh '00, Philly '03, Camden I,II '03, MSG I,II '03, Hershey '03, Reading '04, Philly '05, Camden I,II '06, Meadowlands I '06, Camden I,II '08, DC '08, Spectrum I,II,III,IV '09, Made in America '12, Philly I,II '13, GCF '15, Philly I,II '16, MSG I '16, Apollo ‘22, MSG ‘22, Camden ‘22
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    my2hands said:

    There is another way of looking at it...

    You can't buy GA Pit tickets... they are not sold to the general public at all... you can buy a reserved ticket in multiple ways whenever you want... I completely understand why people go for the GA tickets

    I love seeing the casual fan, or maybe not the casual fan, but the fan who doesn't post here all day and every day(like you and I...Haha), come on this board and announce they won GA tickets. I love reading their absolute joy.

    There are also people on this board that I can honestly say I am thrilled to hear got shut out for GA. Because there are people here who will lie, cheat, steal, and fuck over whoever they can, just to get that GA seat.

    GA seats created a lot of monsters on this board.
    GA seats brought out the "true colors" of some of the fans on this website.
    GA seats turned some people into obsessive assholes.

    And now maybe I am overthinking this.
    Hahahahaha


    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • Options

    my2hands said:

    There is another way of looking at it...

    You can't buy GA Pit tickets... they are not sold to the general public at all... you can buy a reserved ticket in multiple ways whenever you want... I completely understand why people go for the GA tickets

    I love seeing the casual fan, or maybe not the casual fan, but the fan who doesn't post here all day and every day(like you and I...Haha), come on this board and announce they won GA tickets. I love reading their absolute joy.

    There are also people on this board that I can honestly say I am thrilled to hear got shut out for GA. Because there are people here who will lie, cheat, steal, and fuck over whoever they can, just to get that GA seat.

    GA seats created a lot of monsters on this board.
    GA seats brought out the "true colors" of some of the fans on this website.
    GA seats turned some people into obsessive assholes.

    And now maybe I am overthinking this.
    Hahahahaha


    Aw man. I don't believe it. You all seem like such nice people.
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    PoncierPoncier Posts: 16,248
    trent909 said:

    Then of course there are those of us that are waiting for the Fenway shows. I am not going for any of the April/May shows (I have been waiting for this Fenway show for a LONG time). My thoughts are that if you entered the lottery for the main part of the tour your should not be eligible to enter the lottery for the Fenway/Wrigley shows. If there are TC tickets left after that lottery for the Boston and Chicago devotees, then they can do another lottery for them. I know this won't happen but we Boston folks have been waiting VERY patiently for this show in our home ballpark!

    They would have had to have said that in the original announcement otherwise there'll be the biggest uproar ever on this site (and that's saying something).

    I'm in same boat, only going for Fenway and wish Fenway and Wrigley were part of this lottery so I'd have some slight advantage over folks from out of town who put Fenway as a 3rd or 4th option after NYC or Philly for example but will later be able to select Fenway as option 1, but it is what it is.
    This weekend we rock Portland
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    adamvs91 said:

    my2hands said:

    There is another way of looking at it...

    You can't buy GA Pit tickets... they are not sold to the general public at all... you can buy a reserved ticket in multiple ways whenever you want... I completely understand why people go for the GA tickets

    I love seeing the casual fan, or maybe not the casual fan, but the fan who doesn't post here all day and every day(like you and I...Haha), come on this board and announce they won GA tickets. I love reading their absolute joy.

    There are also people on this board that I can honestly say I am thrilled to hear got shut out for GA. Because there are people here who will lie, cheat, steal, and fuck over whoever they can, just to get that GA seat.

    GA seats created a lot of monsters on this board.
    GA seats brought out the "true colors" of some of the fans on this website.
    GA seats turned some people into obsessive assholes.

    And now maybe I am overthinking this.
    Hahahahaha


    Aw man. I don't believe it. You all seem like such nice people.
    The way some people handle the whole GA scenario, just rubs me the wrong way.

    The people who attend 10-20 shows a tour, who have been to 100 shows, yet STILL have to do whatever they have to do, in order to sit in GA? Those people get on my nerves. And unfortunately, I know plenty of those people.
    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • Options

    adamvs91 said:

    my2hands said:

    There is another way of looking at it...

    You can't buy GA Pit tickets... they are not sold to the general public at all... you can buy a reserved ticket in multiple ways whenever you want... I completely understand why people go for the GA tickets

    I love seeing the casual fan, or maybe not the casual fan, but the fan who doesn't post here all day and every day(like you and I...Haha), come on this board and announce they won GA tickets. I love reading their absolute joy.

    There are also people on this board that I can honestly say I am thrilled to hear got shut out for GA. Because there are people here who will lie, cheat, steal, and fuck over whoever they can, just to get that GA seat.

    GA seats created a lot of monsters on this board.
    GA seats brought out the "true colors" of some of the fans on this website.
    GA seats turned some people into obsessive assholes.

    And now maybe I am overthinking this.
    Hahahahaha


    Aw man. I don't believe it. You all seem like such nice people.
    The way some people handle the whole GA scenario, just rubs me the wrong way.

    The people who attend 10-20 shows a tour, who have been to 100 shows, yet STILL have to do whatever they have to do, in order to sit in GA? Those people get on my nerves. And unfortunately, I know plenty of those people.
    Wow. I'm a Pearl Jam concert newbie, so it may be just me.. But I'll be happy just to get in the building!
  • Options
    adamvs91 said:

    adamvs91 said:

    my2hands said:

    There is another way of looking at it...

    You can't buy GA Pit tickets... they are not sold to the general public at all... you can buy a reserved ticket in multiple ways whenever you want... I completely understand why people go for the GA tickets

    I love seeing the casual fan, or maybe not the casual fan, but the fan who doesn't post here all day and every day(like you and I...Haha), come on this board and announce they won GA tickets. I love reading their absolute joy.

    There are also people on this board that I can honestly say I am thrilled to hear got shut out for GA. Because there are people here who will lie, cheat, steal, and fuck over whoever they can, just to get that GA seat.

    GA seats created a lot of monsters on this board.
    GA seats brought out the "true colors" of some of the fans on this website.
    GA seats turned some people into obsessive assholes.

    And now maybe I am overthinking this.
    Hahahahaha


    Aw man. I don't believe it. You all seem like such nice people.
    The way some people handle the whole GA scenario, just rubs me the wrong way.

    The people who attend 10-20 shows a tour, who have been to 100 shows, yet STILL have to do whatever they have to do, in order to sit in GA? Those people get on my nerves. And unfortunately, I know plenty of those people.
    Wow. I'm a Pearl Jam concert newbie, so it may be just me.. But I'll be happy just to get in the building!
    Welcome aboard!

    And yes, just getting in to the building is a beautiful thing!
    Hope you enjoy the shows you are able to attend.

    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • Options
    dimitrispearljamdimitrispearljam NINUNINOPRO Posts: 139,158
    SPEEDY!!!!!!!!!!!! PEARL JAM PLAYING AT WRIGLEY AGAIN???
    FUCKIN EPIC!!!!!

    ILL GO TO BIKINIS THIS TIME THO!!
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • Options

    SPEEDY!!!!!!!!!!!! PEARL JAM PLAYING AT WRIGLEY AGAIN???
    FUCKIN EPIC!!!!!

    ILL GO TO BIKINIS THIS TIME THO!!

    EPIC!
    EPIC I SAY!

    Bring your umbrella.
    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • Options
    Leezestarr313Leezestarr313 Temple of the cat Posts: 14,346
    edited January 2016
    You don't "sit" in GA :P
    It is a wonderful experience! But Reserved also has some good points. You will not lose your spot, you have space to store your merch or jacket or whatever (that is important for winter shows) and if you are not made for standing for three to four hours you have a place to rest for a bit.

  • Options
    dimitrispearljamdimitrispearljam NINUNINOPRO Posts: 139,158

    SPEEDY!!!!!!!!!!!! PEARL JAM PLAYING AT WRIGLEY AGAIN???
    FUCKIN EPIC!!!!!

    ILL GO TO BIKINIS THIS TIME THO!!

    EPIC!
    EPIC I SAY!

    Bring your umbrella.
    HAHAHAH
    ILL GO FLORIDA..
    VIVA LA BIKINIS..VIVA HOTTIES!!!..FUCK CHICAGO!!
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • Options

    SPEEDY!!!!!!!!!!!! PEARL JAM PLAYING AT WRIGLEY AGAIN???
    FUCKIN EPIC!!!!!

    ILL GO TO BIKINIS THIS TIME THO!!

    EPIC!
    EPIC I SAY!

    Bring your umbrella.
    HAHAHAH
    ILL GO FLORIDA..
    VIVA LA BIKINIS..VIVA HOTTIES!!!..FUCK CHICAGO!!
    Good plan.
    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
  • Options
    I've been interested in the numbers of the lottery ever since it was started. While I don't think anyone here knows exactly how the lottery is conducted from reading everything since 2013 here's what I know.

    1. My understanding is that the lottery is NOT drawn from all entries at the same time. They start with the first show (in this case Ft. Lauderdale) and look at the pool of entries that have Ft Lauderdale GA as first choice. If there are more entries than ticket pairs available, then they randomly chose the winners.

    2. If there are more ticket pairs than 1st priority entries then all of them get GA and they next look at those who chose GA with their second entry. Again, if there are fewer entries than ticket pairs available they randomly select the winners.

    3. The important thing to remember is that for some shows it is possible to win GA with your 2nd choice... even if you would really prefer reserved. Basically they want to sell all the GA tickets first before starting with the reserve tickets. This was a real problem with the Worcester 2 2013 draw. Since the initial lottery was limited to only those who lost out on Worcester 1, they had more available tickets than entries and some who preferred reserved actually got their second choice (GA) instead.

    4. My guess is that the odds given are for all entries. So, as many have suggested the odds just give you a relative idea of the interest in a show. In general whatever you choose as first priority will have better odds than what is shown. Likewise, your second, third, and forth choices will have decreasing odds.

    5. For example, take the MSG shows where GA is listed with a probability of around 10%. If the Ten Club has 1000 pairs of GA tickets, this would mean that there are 10,000 total entries. Say that 50% of these entries were #1 priority, 30% were #2 priority, and 10% each for #3 and #4 priorities. The lottery would start with the 5000 entries that chose #1 priority. Those entries would have a probability of 1000/5000 = .20 = 20%. The remaining entries (#2, #3, and #4) would have 0%.
    Boston (4/10/94), Hartford (10/2/96), Barre (8/22/98), Hartford (9/13/98), Mansfield (9/15/98 + 9/16/98), Mansfield (8/29/00 + 8/30/00), Mansfield (7/2/03 + 7/11/03), Boston (9/28/04), Hartford (5/13/06), Boston (5/24/06 + 5/25/06), Hartford (6/27/08), Mansfield (6/28/08 + 6/30/08), Philadelphia (10/31/09), Hartford (5/15/10), Worcester (10/15/13 + 10/16/13), Hartford (10/25/13), New York (5/1/16), Boston (8/5/16 + 8/7/16), Boston (9/2/18 + 9/4/18)
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    benna12benna12 Posts: 19
    Does anyone remember what the odds were right before they drew the lottery for Wrigley a few years ago? Or did this new odds tracker come after Wrigley? Hoping to get an idea as to what the odds will be for the Fenway shows......
  • Options
    kosteva2 said:


    In 2013, I listed Philly 2 reserved as my first priority and Philly 2 GA as my 2nd. I ended up getting my 2nd priority (the GA seats) in the lottery. Based on what we're seeing with lower odds for GA than reserved on this tour, and fewer GA seats, there's no way that they would've run everyone's first priority pick, run out of reserved, but had GAs for my 2nd pick. This makes me think that they lump the people requesting both reserved/GA (which is probably most people) for the same shows and run a lottery out of that and then sort out the GA/reserved location later after picking which members will be attending.


    The Ten Club wants to distribute all the GA tickets to Ten Club members. If they have more Reserved Seats than there's demand they can sell those via Ticketmaster, but they don't want to have to do that with GA tickets. Thus, they allocate all the GA tickets first before allocating the Reserved Seats. For example, let's say in 2013 they had 500 pairs of GA tickets for Philly 2. However, let's say it turns out only 400 people chose Philly 2 GA as their first priority. They then looked at everyone who has Philly 2 GA as a 2nd priority and pick winners from that group. After all GA ticket winners are picked they then go to pick winners for Reserved Seats, first from those who have it as their 1st priority; however, your choice was discounted because you already won GA tickets.

    This would not happen for popular shows like New York and Philly for this lottery, because enough people now understand how the lottery works. In 2013 people didn't have the odds and may have picked Philly 1 for their first choice and Philly 2 as their second choice, or wanted to to go to both Brooklyn and Philly, but picked New York as a higher priority. That left Philly 2 with more GA tickets than what people selected as their First Priority. The sad thing about 2013 is people got shut out of their first choice and also wanted to go to Philly 2 with their higher choices and some people would have been happy with Reserved seats as their first choice, but they essentially took the highly coveted GA ticket before someone else could get it with their 3rd choice. I know this doesn't make sense, but you have to remember, the Ten Club doesn't have humans looking at everyone's choices. They probably use a computer program to allocate the winners.

    The thing to remember is if you would prefer Reserved Seats to GA Standing, you should never list GA as a choice after Reserved (especially in the lower demanded shows). It won't better your odds of getting in the building, it could just possibly give you tickets that were less desirable to you. If there's enough GA tickets that you would be able to win at the priority chosen after your Reserved Seating priority then you would have been guaranteed to win with your Reserved Seating priority if you never also chose GA. In other words, if you want a Reserved Seat, also picking GA for that show will never help you, but it could hurt you.
  • Options
    ComeToTXComeToTX Austin Posts: 7,587
    benna12 said:

    Does anyone remember what the odds were right before they drew the lottery for Wrigley a few years ago? Or did this new odds tracker come after Wrigley? Hoping to get an idea as to what the odds will be for the Fenway shows......

    They didn't have the odds feature for Wrigley.
    This show, another show, a show here and a show there.
  • Options
    FrankieGFrankieG Abingdon MD Posts: 9,095

    I've been interested in the numbers of the lottery ever since it was started. While I don't think anyone here knows exactly how the lottery is conducted from reading everything since 2013 here's what I know.

    1. My understanding is that the lottery is NOT drawn from all entries at the same time. They start with the first show (in this case Ft. Lauderdale) and look at the pool of entries that have Ft Lauderdale GA as first choice. If there are more entries than ticket pairs available, then they randomly chose the winners.

    2. If there are more ticket pairs than 1st priority entries then all of them get GA and they next look at those who chose GA with their second entry. Again, if there are fewer entries than ticket pairs available they randomly select the winners.

    3. The important thing to remember is that for some shows it is possible to win GA with your 2nd choice... even if you would really prefer reserved. Basically they want to sell all the GA tickets first before starting with the reserve tickets. This was a real problem with the Worcester 2 2013 draw. Since the initial lottery was limited to only those who lost out on Worcester 1, they had more available tickets than entries and some who preferred reserved actually got their second choice (GA) instead.

    4. My guess is that the odds given are for all entries. So, as many have suggested the odds just give you a relative idea of the interest in a show. In general whatever you choose as first priority will have better odds than what is shown. Likewise, your second, third, and forth choices will have decreasing odds.

    5. For example, take the MSG shows where GA is listed with a probability of around 10%. If the Ten Club has 1000 pairs of GA tickets, this would mean that there are 10,000 total entries. Say that 50% of these entries were #1 priority, 30% were #2 priority, and 10% each for #3 and #4 priorities. The lottery would start with the 5000 entries that chose #1 priority. Those entries would have a probability of 1000/5000 = .20 = 20%. The remaining entries (#2, #3, and #4) would have 0%.

    I have been thinking about this too, and your #3 point makes sense. They want to sell the GA first, but what are they doing in the case of Philly where there are 2 shows in 1 city? If all choice Philly show 1 GAs are selected, do they move onto drawing the choice 2 Philly show 1 GAs or do they do the Choice 1 Philly show 2 GAs?

    Lets assume that there are more Philly Show 1 Choice 1 GAs than there are tickets for show 1, so only choice 1s get into GA. Do they then draw the Choice 1, then Choice 2 Philly Show 1 Reserved tickets? Or the Choice 1 Philly Show 2 GAs? Because if your Choice 2 Philly Show 1 reserved gets selected, then it cancels out your Choice 1 Philly show 2 GA that hasn't been drawn yet and increases everyone else's chances.

    2003: 7/14 NJ ... 2006: 6/1 NJ, 6/3 NJ ... 2007: 8/5 IL ... 2008: 6/24 NY, 6/25 NY, 8/7 EV NJ ... 2009: 10/27 PA, 10/28 PA, 10/30 PA, 10/31 PA
    2010: 5/20 NY, 5/21 NY ... 2011: 6/21 EV NY, 9/3 WI, 9/4 WI ... 2012: 9/2 PA, 9/22 GA ... 2013: 10/18 NY, 10/19 NY, 10/21 PA, 10/22 PA, 10/27 MD
    2015: 9/23 NY, 9/26 NY ... 2016: 4/28 PA, 4/29 PA, 5/1 NY, 5/2 NY, 6/11 TN, 8/7 MA, 11/4 TOTD PA, 11/5 TOTD PA ... 2018: 8/10 WA ---- http://imgur.com/a/nk0s7
  • Options
    KC138045KC138045 Columbus, OH Posts: 2,715
    benna12 said:

    Does anyone remember what the odds were right before they drew the lottery for Wrigley a few years ago? Or did this new odds tracker come after Wrigley? Hoping to get an idea as to what the odds will be for the Fenway shows......

    There were no odds for the 2013 Wrigley show. I think the Fall 2014 tour was the first time they used this.
    Columbus-2000
    Columbus-2003
    Cincinnati-2006
    Columbus-2010
    Wrigley-2013
    Cincinnati-2014
    Lexington-2016
    Wrigley 1 & 2-2018
  • Options
    dimitrispearljamdimitrispearljam NINUNINOPRO Posts: 139,158
    JB111896 said:

    kosteva2 said:


    In 2013, I listed Philly 2 reserved as my first priority and Philly 2 GA as my 2nd. I ended up getting my 2nd priority (the GA seats) in the lottery. Based on what we're seeing with lower odds for GA than reserved on this tour, and fewer GA seats, there's no way that they would've run everyone's first priority pick, run out of reserved, but had GAs for my 2nd pick. This makes me think that they lump the people requesting both reserved/GA (which is probably most people) for the same shows and run a lottery out of that and then sort out the GA/reserved location later after picking which members will be attending.


    The Ten Club wants to distribute all the GA tickets to Ten Club members. If they have more Reserved Seats than there's demand they can sell those via Ticketmaster, but they don't want to have to do that with GA tickets. Thus, they allocate all the GA tickets first before allocating the Reserved Seats. For example, let's say in 2013 they had 500 pairs of GA tickets for Philly 2. However, let's say it turns out only 400 people chose Philly 2 GA as their first priority. They then looked at everyone who has Philly 2 GA as a 2nd priority and pick winners from that group. After all GA ticket winners are picked they then go to pick winners for Reserved Seats, first from those who have it as their 1st priority; however, your choice was discounted because you already won GA tickets.

    This would not happen for popular shows like New York and Philly for this lottery, because enough people now understand how the lottery works. In 2013 people didn't have the odds and may have picked Philly 1 for their first choice and Philly 2 as their second choice, or wanted to to go to both Brooklyn and Philly, but picked New York as a higher priority. That left Philly 2 with more GA tickets than what people selected as their First Priority. The sad thing about 2013 is people got shut out of their first choice and also wanted to go to Philly 2 with their higher choices and some people would have been happy with Reserved seats as their first choice, but they essentially took the highly coveted GA ticket before someone else could get it with their 3rd choice. I know this doesn't make sense, but you have to remember, the Ten Club doesn't have humans looking at everyone's choices. They probably use a computer program to allocate the winners.

    The thing to remember is if you would prefer Reserved Seats to GA Standing, you should never list GA as a choice after Reserved (especially in the lower demanded shows). It won't better your odds of getting in the building, it could just possibly give you tickets that were less desirable to you. If there's enough GA tickets that you would be able to win at the priority chosen after your Reserved Seating priority then you would have been guaranteed to win with your Reserved Seating priority if you never also chose GA. In other words, if you want a Reserved Seat, also picking GA for that show will never help you, but it could hurt you.
    this guy gets it..EXCELLENT POST
    i hope members here will understand it and put the right choices of their desires and not fuck up and make theur chances less
    as u said..ALL GA will be sold out no matter what cos they 10c has all the GA for them and those tickets goes only to members..and even if someone has it 15th priority the ticket will be sold..
    same time the 10c seated ticket that will not sold,if there is any can go back to ticketmaster pool for public sale..
    10C GA WILL BE SOLD OUT AT ALL SHOW AND ITS THE BEST FUCKIN WAY TO SEE THE BEST BAND ON THE PLANET!!!!
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • Options
    dimitrispearljamdimitrispearljam NINUNINOPRO Posts: 139,158
    KC138045 said:

    benna12 said:

    Does anyone remember what the odds were right before they drew the lottery for Wrigley a few years ago? Or did this new odds tracker come after Wrigley? Hoping to get an idea as to what the odds will be for the Fenway shows......

    There were no odds for the 2013 Wrigley show. I think the Fall 2014 tour was the first time they used this.
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
  • Options
    FrankieG said:

    I've been interested in the numbers of the lottery ever since it was started. While I don't think anyone here knows exactly how the lottery is conducted from reading everything since 2013 here's what I know.

    1. My understanding is that the lottery is NOT drawn from all entries at the same time. They start with the first show (in this case Ft. Lauderdale) and look at the pool of entries that have Ft Lauderdale GA as first choice. If there are more entries than ticket pairs available, then they randomly chose the winners.

    2. If there are more ticket pairs than 1st priority entries then all of them get GA and they next look at those who chose GA with their second entry. Again, if there are fewer entries than ticket pairs available they randomly select the winners.

    3. The important thing to remember is that for some shows it is possible to win GA with your 2nd choice... even if you would really prefer reserved. Basically they want to sell all the GA tickets first before starting with the reserve tickets. This was a real problem with the Worcester 2 2013 draw. Since the initial lottery was limited to only those who lost out on Worcester 1, they had more available tickets than entries and some who preferred reserved actually got their second choice (GA) instead.

    4. My guess is that the odds given are for all entries. So, as many have suggested the odds just give you a relative idea of the interest in a show. In general whatever you choose as first priority will have better odds than what is shown. Likewise, your second, third, and forth choices will have decreasing odds.

    5. For example, take the MSG shows where GA is listed with a probability of around 10%. If the Ten Club has 1000 pairs of GA tickets, this would mean that there are 10,000 total entries. Say that 50% of these entries were #1 priority, 30% were #2 priority, and 10% each for #3 and #4 priorities. The lottery would start with the 5000 entries that chose #1 priority. Those entries would have a probability of 1000/5000 = .20 = 20%. The remaining entries (#2, #3, and #4) would have 0%.

    I have been thinking about this too, and your #3 point makes sense. They want to sell the GA first, but what are they doing in the case of Philly where there are 2 shows in 1 city? If all choice Philly show 1 GAs are selected, do they move onto drawing the choice 2 Philly show 1 GAs or do they do the Choice 1 Philly show 2 GAs?

    Lets assume that there are more Philly Show 1 Choice 1 GAs than there are tickets for show 1, so only choice 1s get into GA. Do they then draw the Choice 1, then Choice 2 Philly Show 1 Reserved tickets? Or the Choice 1 Philly Show 2 GAs? Because if your Choice 2 Philly Show 1 reserved gets selected, then it cancels out your Choice 1 Philly show 2 GA that hasn't been drawn yet and increases everyone else's chances.

    I thought about that too. But I don't think that it matters because I'm fairly confident that there will be more entries for each of the four options (Philly 1 GA, Philly 1 Res, Philly 2 GA, Philly 2 Res) than ticket pairs available.

    But just for discussion purposes you do have an interesting question. Would someone win Night 1 reserved with their second choice even if they preferred GA for the second night? My understanding is (and I have no way to verify this) that the shows are drawn in order with GA first and reserved second so this is a possibility.
    Boston (4/10/94), Hartford (10/2/96), Barre (8/22/98), Hartford (9/13/98), Mansfield (9/15/98 + 9/16/98), Mansfield (8/29/00 + 8/30/00), Mansfield (7/2/03 + 7/11/03), Boston (9/28/04), Hartford (5/13/06), Boston (5/24/06 + 5/25/06), Hartford (6/27/08), Mansfield (6/28/08 + 6/30/08), Philadelphia (10/31/09), Hartford (5/15/10), Worcester (10/15/13 + 10/16/13), Hartford (10/25/13), New York (5/1/16), Boston (8/5/16 + 8/7/16), Boston (9/2/18 + 9/4/18)
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    benna12benna12 Posts: 19
    Another silly question, what is the cut off of when your member number is no longer considered any good for seating priority? What are considered the "good" numbers?
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    KC138045KC138045 Columbus, OH Posts: 2,715
    benna12 said:

    Another silly question, what is the cut off of when your member number is no longer considered any good for seating priority? What are considered the "good" numbers?

    Im a 456XXX number and I had good reserved seats on Mikes side in Cincinnati. See. my profile pic
    Columbus-2000
    Columbus-2003
    Cincinnati-2006
    Columbus-2010
    Wrigley-2013
    Cincinnati-2014
    Lexington-2016
    Wrigley 1 & 2-2018
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    benna12 said:

    Another silly question, what is the cut off of when your member number is no longer considered any good for seating priority? What are considered the "good" numbers?

    All priority seating is good. All tickets given out by the 10club, are basically the best seats in the house.


    Take me piece by piece.....
    Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
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    3days3days Posts: 1,152
    Don't believe the hype:
    Go for whatever tickets you want most! My reasoning is simple... you are not guaranteed to get reserved 10c tickets either. The "get yourself in the building" argument makes zero sense.
    In 2014, I put my 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices as reserved seating (short companion means no GA for me) for 3 different shows. While it's true that I got my 1st choice, my 2nd and 3rd choices were losers. Another friend of mine lost on all 4 of his reserved picks, which were his only 4. This is a RANDOM drawing. Why not try for what you really want?
    While 10c does offer best in house seating, you can often find very comparable seats during public sales and pre-sales. So if you strike out trying for GA, don't think that you've completely squandered an opportunity for good seats. I sat 1 row behind 10c members in Milwaukee in 2014 with tickets purchased off of TicketMaster.
    Lastly, if you have a high 10c membership number (400,000 or 500,000... etc), you'll be seated behind the folks who have lower numbers anyway. Why not try to get yourself up close, if that's what you're hoping for? The 10c sale is really your only opportunity to do so.
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    PP193448PP193448 Here Posts: 4,281

    benna12 said:

    Another silly question, what is the cut off of when your member number is no longer considered any good for seating priority? What are considered the "good" numbers?

    All priority seating is good. All tickets given out by the 10club, are basically the best seats in the house.


    Unless they are floor behind GA, then it's better to be GA...
    2006 Clev,Pitt; 2008 NY MSGx2; 2010 Columbus; 2012 Missoula; 2013 Phoenix,Vancouver,Seattle; 2014 Cincy; 2016 Lex, Wrigley 1&2; 2018 Wrigley 1&2; 2022 Louisville
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