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2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

1910121415

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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,631

    mdarya said:

    Ok, so will ask. First choice at 88% and second at 99%. No reason to change and my chances should be good, right? Not going to try for GA, as wife wouldn't enjoy. Just want to be in the building!

    I think you'll get them both. But, anything can happen!
    I would think so. That 88% is probably 99% for the first block if you remove the people who put GA in that city first.
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    Pearl34JamPearl34Jam TN Posts: 1,102

    mdarya said:

    Ok, so will ask. First choice at 88% and second at 99%. No reason to change and my chances should be good, right? Not going to try for GA, as wife wouldn't enjoy. Just want to be in the building!

    I think you'll get them both. But, anything can happen!
    I would think so. That 88% is probably 99% for the first block if you remove the people who put GA in that city first.
    Exactly.
    "Must I keep explaining my decisions to you strangers of the Internet?" - Merch tent 8/19/16

    '13: 10/27 Baltimore
    '15: 9/26 New York City
    '16: 4/16 Greenville (VS!), 4/26 Lexington, 4/28 Philly, 8/20 Wrigley
    '18: 9/02 Fenway
    '22: 9/16 Nashville
    ’24: 8/26 Noblesville, 9/12 Baltimore
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    pawlowski1097pawlowski1097 Philadelphia, PA Posts: 571
    My first choice is at 9%
    Not looking good for the kid.
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    mdaryamdarya The middle Posts: 68
    Good luck to All!
    06 Cincinnati
    10 Columbus, Noblesville
    11 Toronto-1
    13 Pittsburgh, Baltimore
    14 Cincinnati
    16 Lexington, Wrigley 1
    17 EV-Louisville
    18 Rome, Missoula, Wrigley 1, Boston 1
    22 Nasville, STL
    23 Ft Worth 1/2
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,631
    edited January 2016

    My first choice is at 9%
    Not looking good for the kid.

    Certainly better than 9% for the first block but still not a sure thing.
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    dimitrispearljamdimitrispearljam NINUNINOPRO Posts: 139,458

    mdarya said:

    Ok, so will ask. First choice at 88% and second at 99%. No reason to change and my chances should be good, right? Not going to try for GA, as wife wouldn't enjoy. Just want to be in the building!

    I think you'll get them both. But, anything can happen!
    I would think so. That 88% is probably 99% for the first block if you remove the people who put GA in that city first.
    yep
    "...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
    "..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
    “..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
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    AngryGreg said:

    I can't handle this! I'm just going to hide under the covers in my bed until Monday night. This is too stressful. Am I playing the odds right? Did I put the wrong show as my #1 choice? What about my member number? AHHHHHHHHHH

    I feel the same. I have honestly lost count of the number of changes I have made.
    Your question about member number... What is considered a good number nowadays?
    well, fuckers, he still stands
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    My thinking is if I put #1 priority for reserved with better odds than the GA odds for the same show, it is a waste to then put in GA for the same show for my #2 selection, correct? I know, this is probably a stupid question, but I am one who has over analyzed this, too, and I am doubting everything, including what is best to make for dinner.
    well, fuckers, he still stands
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,631
    edited January 2016

    My thinking is if I put #1 priority for reserved with better odds than the GA odds for the same show, it is a waste to then put in GA for the same show for my #2 selection, correct? I know, this is probably a stupid question, but I am one who has over analyzed this, too, and I am doubting everything, including what is best to make for dinner.

    It would seem to be a waste to me. It would be unlikely that reserved would sell out in the first round unless it is a super popular show like NYC or Philly. You would then be disqualified to get GA in the second round. If the chance is that you don't get reserved tickets in the first round then there may be few if any GA left in the second round and you would be up against a lot of people who put the GA show in the #2 spot as well with no guarantees.

    My advise to myself this year is go after the tickets you want (GA) and then put reserved. There are always extras available on here and reserved tickets are usually easy to find on here.
    Post edited by bootlegger10 on
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    mwplummwplum Posts: 1,528
    Good luck tomorrow everyone! Hope you all get what you're hoping for! I may be a 35 year old dude, but right now I feel like a giddy little kid on Christmas Eve!
    1992-07-21 Vancouver
    1993-9-4 Vancouver
    1996-9-16 Seattle
    1998-7-19 Vancouver, 7-21 Seattle, Memorial Stadium
    2000-11-6 Seattle
    2001-10-22 Seattle
    2002 -12-09 Seattle
    2009-8-17 Manchester, 9-25 Vancouver
    2011-6-16 Seattle (EV), 9-3/4 PJ20, 9-25 Vancouver
    2012-6-27 Amsterdam (#2!)
    2013-11-29 Portland, 12-4 Vancouver, 12-6 Seattle
    2014-AUS - 1-26 Sydney, 1-31 Adelaide, 2-11/12 EV Sydney State Theatre, 2-13 EV Opera House
    2014 - USA - Memphis, Detroit, MOLINE, St. Paul, MILWAUKEE, Denver, 25/26 Bridge School
    2016 - Lexington, Philly x 2, MSG x 2, Quebec City, Ottawa, Toronto x 2, Pemberton, Fenway x 2, Wrigley x 2
    2018 - Seattle x 2, Missoula, Fenway x 2
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    JDime20JDime20 Posts: 192
    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!
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    PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,041
    JDime20 said:

    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!

    They will fill the GA up first before Reserved so yes you could be selected. If you do not want GA do not put it anywheres on your list!
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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,631
    PJNB said:


    JDime20 said:

    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!

    They will fill the GA up first before Reserved so yes you could be selected. If you do not want GA do not put it anywheres on your list!
    No, the reserved and GA drawings occur at the same time. Tampa GA priority one is picked at same time as Tampa reserved priority one.
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    wak5700wak5700 Posts: 22
    Not sure how much I like this... if I get all three, not sure if I can attend, however chances of getting my top priorities are at like 9%

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    bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,631
    edited January 2016
    JDime20 said:

    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!

    Your last statement is correct. They do all first priorities first. You are essentially entering the 1st drawing for reserved Tampa tickets and the fourth drawing for GA tampa tickets.

    Think of Tampa GA and Tampa reserved being like two different Tampa shows over two nights. Both shows have their drawings at the exact same time and you can't win both. There is no difference as if you were going for Lexington reserved ahead of Raleigh GA except that you are not disqualified from winning raleigh if you win Lexington first.
    Post edited by bootlegger10 on
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    JDime20JDime20 Posts: 192
    edited January 2016

    Your last statement is correct. They do all first priorities first. You are essentially entering the 1st drawing for reserved Tampa tickets and the fourth drawing for GA tampa tickets.

    I keep trying to come up with ways of how I prioritized incorrectly, but you just gave me some peace of mind. Much appreciated!
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    Leezestarr313Leezestarr313 Temple of the cat Posts: 14,347
    Good luck everyone! I hope we all get at least something that makes us happy :)
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    PoncierPoncier Posts: 16,372

    JDime20 said:

    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!

    Your last statement is correct. They do all first priorities first. You are essentially entering the 1st drawing for reserved Tampa tickets and the fourth drawing for GA tampa tickets.

    Think of Tampa GA and Tampa reserved being like two different Tampa shows over two nights. Both shows have their drawings at the exact same time and you can't win both. There is no difference as if you were going for Lexington reserved ahead of Raleigh GA except that you are not disqualified from winning raleigh if you win Lexington first.
    No.
    They draw GA first. It is possible to get GA as 4th choice (though highly unlikely) instead of reserved 1st choice. In 2013 when they added the 2nd Worcester show, I was eligible for that draw having missed out on Worcester 1. I put reserved as first choice and GA as 2nd thinking it was my best chance at getting in the building as more reserved tix are available than GA. I won GA tickets in that lottery.

    They draw GA first to be sure it is filled with 10 clubbers.
    This weekend we rock Portland
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    front spacerfront spacer Earth Posts: 3,246
    PJNB said:


    JDime20 said:

    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!

    They will fill the GA up first before Reserved so yes you could be selected. If you do not want GA do not put it anywheres on your list!
    No, this is not correct.^^^^^

    Indy - 08.17.98
    Indy - 08.18.00
    Indy - 06.22.03
    Indy - 05.07.10
    EV StL - 07.01.11
    Alpine Valley - 09.03.11, 09.04.11 (PJ20)
    ATL - 09.22.12 (Music Midtown Festival)
    EV Jax - 11.24.12
    Chicago - 07.19.13
    Pittsburgh - 10.11.13
    Moline - 10.17.14 (The No Code Show)
    Milwaukee - 10.20.14 (The Yield Show)
    FtL - 04.08.16
    Miami - 04.09.16
    Tampa - 04.11.16
    Lexington - 04.26.16
    Chicago - 08.20.16, 08.22.16
    Chicago - 08.18.18, 08.20.18
    Boston - 09.02.18, 09.04.18
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    PoncierPoncier Posts: 16,372

    PJNB said:


    JDime20 said:

    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!

    They will fill the GA up first before Reserved so yes you could be selected. If you do not want GA do not put it anywheres on your list!
    No, this is not correct.^^^^^

    Yes it is.
    This weekend we rock Portland
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    front spacerfront spacer Earth Posts: 3,246
    Selections are awarded, if available, by means of the priority YOU select.

    Indy - 08.17.98
    Indy - 08.18.00
    Indy - 06.22.03
    Indy - 05.07.10
    EV StL - 07.01.11
    Alpine Valley - 09.03.11, 09.04.11 (PJ20)
    ATL - 09.22.12 (Music Midtown Festival)
    EV Jax - 11.24.12
    Chicago - 07.19.13
    Pittsburgh - 10.11.13
    Moline - 10.17.14 (The No Code Show)
    Milwaukee - 10.20.14 (The Yield Show)
    FtL - 04.08.16
    Miami - 04.09.16
    Tampa - 04.11.16
    Lexington - 04.26.16
    Chicago - 08.20.16, 08.22.16
    Chicago - 08.18.18, 08.20.18
    Boston - 09.02.18, 09.04.18
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    PoncierPoncier Posts: 16,372

    Selections are awarded, if available, by means of the priority YOU select.

    Read my post 3 posts above about Worcester 2013.
    This weekend we rock Portland
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    Poncier said:

    Selections are awarded, if available, by means of the priority YOU select.

    Read my post 3 posts above about Worcester 2013.
    Could it have been that more people put in for reserved as their first priority than those requesting GA #1, using the "just get me in the building" thinking, than you realized, thus resulting in all of the reserved seats being distributed more quickly than GA and leading them to then move on to the 2nd priority and you got the GA?

    I tend to agree that they pick all the first priority first, then move on to 2nd. Otherwise, I don't see any reason for having us choose between reserved or GA at all.
    well, fuckers, he still stands
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    derbydavederbydave Columbus, OH Posts: 11,254

    PJNB said:


    JDime20 said:

    I know this won't happen, but for the sake of understanding how this works... If I have my 1st choice as Tampa reserved and my 4th choice as Tampa GA, what if the GA drawing gets to the 4th round? Would I get the GA tickets or would I get the reserved since it's my first choice? Or do they do all 1st priorities for a show (GA and reserved) before moving on to the 2nd and 3rd? Make sense? My head is spinning, I can't wait until tomorrow!

    They will fill the GA up first before Reserved so yes you could be selected. If you do not want GA do not put it anywheres on your list!
    No, this is not correct.^^^^^

    They REALLY do...
    I have a good friend who had Phoenix reserved as her first choice,
    because it was her hometown show and she wanted to make sure she was "In The Building."
    She had GA as her #2 selection and ended up getting "upgraded" to GA tickets.
    I heard this happened to a few other people in the low demand shows as well!!
    '96: Seattle: Key Arena
    '98: Seattle: Memorial Stadium 1 & 2
    '00: Columbus: Polaris
    '03: Columbus: Germain
    '10: Columbus: Nationwide Arena
    '11: East Troy: Alpine Valley - PJ20 1 & 2 + EV Detroit
    '12: Missoula + EV Jacksonville 1 & 2
    '13: Chicago / Pittsburgh / Buffalo / Seattle
    '14: Cincinnati / St. Louis / Tulsa / Lincoln / Memphis / Detroit / Moline
    '15: New York City - Global Citizen Festival
    '16: Greenville / Hampton / Raleigh / Columbia / Lexington / Ottawa / Toronto 1 & 2 / Wrigley 1 & 2
    '17: Brooklyn - Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony
    '18: London 1 & 2 / Seattle 1 & 2 / Missoula / Wrigley 1
    '22: Nashville / St. Louis


    http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=170

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    my2handsmy2hands Posts: 17,117
    I would assume GA runs first so they can sell all of their allotment... GA tickets are not sold to the public so I'm sure their priority is to sell those first, as any unsold reserved could easily be thrown back in for the public sale

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    wall05wall05 Posts: 304
    ::in best Han Solo voice::

    Never tell me the odds!

    (Good luck everyone!)
    2008 - Camden, NJ 1
    2009 - Philadelphia, PA x4
    2010 - Newark, NJ, New York City, NY x2
    2012 - Philadelphia, PA
    2013 - Chicago, IL, Philadelphia, PA x2, Hartford, CT
    2016 - Philadelphia, PA x2, New York City, NY 2, Fenway 2
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    Pearl34JamPearl34Jam TN Posts: 1,102
    Today I'm either going to be in a bad mood or I'm gonna be the jolliest mofo this side of Tennessee!
    "Must I keep explaining my decisions to you strangers of the Internet?" - Merch tent 8/19/16

    '13: 10/27 Baltimore
    '15: 9/26 New York City
    '16: 4/16 Greenville (VS!), 4/26 Lexington, 4/28 Philly, 8/20 Wrigley
    '18: 9/02 Fenway
    '22: 9/16 Nashville
    ’24: 8/26 Noblesville, 9/12 Baltimore
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    MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 11,620
    Hoping to snag Toronto and Raleigh!

    Lets Go!!! SPIN THE WHEEL
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    FoxyRedLaFoxyRedLa Lauren / MI Posts: 4,810

    Today I'm either going to be in a bad mood or I'm gonna be the jolliest mofo this side of Tennessee!

    :lol:
    Oh please let it rain today.
    Those that can be trusted can change their mind.
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    rgambsrgambs Posts: 13,576
    Spin Spin!
    This lottery business is fun and it could be a hell of a lot more stressful.

    Monkey Driven, Call this Living?
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