2016 Tour lottery Ticket Odds

ckravitz

my2hands said:

it seems a lot of people struggle with the concept of a lottery... just use the % as a general guide to the interest in the show... don't over think it, I still go for my local show as #1 priority no matter what

While I generally agree, if you live in any of those places where the percentage is still 99 (seated) and you are also planning an MSG show, you'd be crazy to not put MSG first because you would be pretty much assured your hometown show even as a second choice whereas you have zero shot at MSG as a second.

zarocat

I don't like it overall.
I think the reserved seating and GA choices should be eliminated and just have entry for a show.
Your choices are divided by shows. Not by shows, GA & reserved seating. oh well...
Because if I want to go to, lets say Miami, for my first choice but Miami has high demand GA making my second choice, if I choose reserved seating, useless for the first show I'd like to attend.
Then, my second choice kinda becomes useless because I'm behind other first choices making their second choice useless to my first choice. haha
I figure 'red tape' plays a part.
Just want in the building through the Ten Club.

jdopj

Roscoe28 said:

I don't think these odds percentages factor in the fact that the same people can only get 1 pair of tickets to each of the philly and NYC shows.....

They don't. That's why the odds are actually better than they look.

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jdopj said:

Roscoe28 said:

I don't think these odds percentages factor in the fact that the same people can only get 1 pair of tickets to each of the philly and NYC shows.....

They don't. That's why the odds are actually better than they look.

I believe this is the case. For example, the percentages simply factory in ALL requests for tickets regardless of the ranked order or whether or not one request would be canceled out by winning another type of seat for that same show.

For example, with my fifth and sixth selections, I could select MSG 1 and 2 GA. I'm obviously not going to get GA with that low of a selection, but it would still show me as another person trying to get those GA seats while lowering the overall percentage.

Fixer13

It's awesome for the chance to see them again, but not sure I want to risk reserve seating on the floor thru the lottery. I had reserved floor seats a few years ago and can understand how some people can't see at all in these sections. Wish they made the whole floor GA w/reserved seating on the side sections only.

alskaraoke

my2hands said:

alskaraoke said:

I wouldn't put high percentage reserved too far down the list. I had philly reserved 4th last year and got nothing.

we attended the exact same shows in 2013/2014... that is awesome

Philly 1
Philly 2
Baltimore
Charlottesville
Charlotte

Memphis
and then we added Moline, but still, you have good taste in 10c lottery selections! lol

Yeah Im sure we probably have similar lottery picks this go round. That was a great stretch of shows. Charlottesville was awesome but Memphis was definitely my favorite. I'm leaning away from the metropolitan shows this leg because of the percentages. That and my wife has a MUST SEE show on her list and I have to use her membership lottery picks on that tour date only. Was going to use hers for Philly only. Although the Philly odds are currently misleading. One show per member doesn't currently show up in the odds table. They are far better then what they display. I'm looking to do 3 shows to my south. I'm just nervous to put down reserved in my 4,5,6, slot. If you look at 2013 it doesn't make any since to miss out on Charlotte GA as first pick but get reserved Charlotte with my 6th pick. Makes me not want to put down reserve seating as a back up. Its luck of the draw. At the end of the day Tenclub owes us nothing and I'm just thankful to have a shot at lottery. I cant complain. We use to only get two tickets for one show of choice back in the day. Although that system made it so a low member number would get you the first 3 rows. With that being said I do love the current system. It gives everyone and opportunity and allows you to take advantage of multiple shows. Keep up the good work tenclub. Its not a perfect system and next week there will probably be a lot of us disappointed at the results. To include myself. You always have to have a plan B. I know we do. When your favorite band is on the road. You will find a way to be in the building. We always have.

chitownp76

^^^^ Very True on the last statement. This is my first lottery. Either way, if i am not lucky in the lottery, I will have to take to Stub Hub and the like. TM is clogged with ticket brokers looking to make $$$$ rather than see the show. I have never gotten tix through them every time I tried.

waupaca11

I have to echo what others are saying in that I believe the lottery is far less scientific than we are over thinking it to be. I think its reflecting # of 10C on hand tickets Vs # of people selecting that show (GA or Res). As in 100 tickets for GA, and you are one of 64 people who selected GA, thus your odds are reflected as 64%. BUT, its not really 64% chance of getting those tickets because other people have selected that show as maybe a second or third choice and then perhaps negating them from the % outcome.

I think the 10C "odds" are a tool to show interest and not really a gauge of what your real odds of getting a specific ticket type is. What is more interesting and helpful is HOW they select. I am doing the first 3 FL shows. Are my odds better to select GA/ Res, GA/Res, GA/ Res for each show as first choice, second, etc, or is it better to go GA, GA, GA, Res, Res, Res? I'm think the latter as hopefully one of those GAs hit since they are a lower %, then hopefully the lower choice Res fill out the non-GA won shows. Or did I just way overthink it? : )

gotthebottle

Everyone is overthinking this...

amethgr8

"- After entering, you may win or lose any given ticket type regardless of odds because the drawing is a random luck of the draw. "

I think the odds are there more to show use the demand level for any given show.

Get_Right

There will be a lot of very disappointed people going for MSG and Philly no matter what the odds say or how they may be impacted by the "one show only" variable. If your top 8 choices are all Philly and MSG, dont be surprised when you get nothing. Just saying. Pick smart.

AlaG

waupaca11 said:

I have to echo what others are saying in that I believe the lottery is far less scientific than we are over thinking it to be. I think its reflecting # of 10C on hand tickets Vs # of people selecting that show (GA or Res). As in 100 tickets for GA, and you are one of 64 people who selected GA, thus your odds are reflected as 64%. BUT, its not really 64% chance of getting those tickets because other people have selected that show as maybe a second or third choice and then perhaps negating them from the % outcome.

I think the 10C "odds" are a tool to show interest and not really a gauge of what your real odds of getting a specific ticket type is. What is more interesting and helpful is HOW they select. I am doing the first 3 FL shows. Are my odds better to select GA/ Res, GA/Res, GA/ Res for each show as first choice, second, etc, or is it better to go GA, GA, GA, Res, Res, Res? I'm think the latter as hopefully one of those GAs hit since they are a lower %, then hopefully the lower choice Res fill out the non-GA won shows. Or did I just way overthink it? : )

If there are 100 tickets and you're one of 64 people who selected that option, your odds of receiving tickets are still 100%, as there are enough tickets to fulfill everyone's needs. If there are 100 tickets and you were one of 156 people wanting them, then the odds you would be selected would be around 64%. This is why some of the drawings haven't dropped below the 99th percentile.

Also, I believe that even the reserved seating for the popular shows is going to go first round.

marjen

I really think there is ONE change that needs to be implemented here. Someone should not be able to win tickets to multiple shows until everyone has a shot at tickets. SO basically take them out of the running unless everyone else who also wanted tickets and has not won the lottery for another show wins at least one show. That way at least more people will have an opportunity to see a show on the tour. Last time you would have people winning 7-8 shows worth of tickets and other people completely snubbed. That is not right.

AlaG

marjen said:

I really think there is ONE change that needs to be implemented here. Someone should not be able to win tickets to multiple shows until everyone has a shot at tickets. SO basically take them out of the running unless everyone else who also wanted tickets and has not won the lottery for another show wins at least one show. That way at least more people will have an opportunity to see a show on the tour. Last time you would have people winning 7-8 shows worth of tickets and other people completely snubbed. That is not right.

I personally don't get this. Some people gamble too hard and list GA for all the highly sought after shows. Shouldn't be the fault of the person who played it smart by asking for reserved seating and/or opting to go to more low-key shows.

rssesq

do your odds increase if you use index cards? u late bloomers wont know what I'm talkin about

Get_Right

AlaG said:

waupaca11 said:

I have to echo what others are saying in that I believe the lottery is far less scientific than we are over thinking it to be. I think its reflecting # of 10C on hand tickets Vs # of people selecting that show (GA or Res). As in 100 tickets for GA, and you are one of 64 people who selected GA, thus your odds are reflected as 64%. BUT, its not really 64% chance of getting those tickets because other people have selected that show as maybe a second or third choice and then perhaps negating them from the % outcome.

I think the 10C "odds" are a tool to show interest and not really a gauge of what your real odds of getting a specific ticket type is. What is more interesting and helpful is HOW they select. I am doing the first 3 FL shows. Are my odds better to select GA/ Res, GA/Res, GA/ Res for each show as first choice, second, etc, or is it better to go GA, GA, GA, Res, Res, Res? I'm think the latter as hopefully one of those GAs hit since they are a lower %, then hopefully the lower choice Res fill out the non-GA won shows. Or did I just way overthink it? : )

If there are 100 tickets and you're one of 64 people who selected that option, your odds of receiving tickets are still 100%, as there are enough tickets to fulfill everyone's needs. If there are 100 tickets and you were one of 156 people wanting them, then the odds you would be selected would be around 64%. This is why some of the drawings haven't dropped below the 99th percentile.

Also, I believe that even the reserved seating for the popular shows is going to go first round.

For sure, many 10c members will be completely shut out of the popular shows.

Poncier

JB128716 said:

2. So if PJ has 500 tickets in GA and only 300 people are requesting it, the percentage is still 99% because all people that requested it should win (always that 1 percent we messed up scenario).


.

Actually the percentage there would be 83%.
500 tickets, 300 requests. Each request is for a pair, so 600 tickets requested.
So 250 of those 300 requests would be filled.

JR86440

So if somebody puts in GA Miami as first choice and Reserved Miami as second choice, both are being reflected in the ODDS calculator, correct? So. I am assuming once somebody wins GA that entry for Miami reserved is no longer valid and is "taken out". If that is the case, in reality, if odds are at 90% for reserved they are actually higher because those that win the GA will no longer be in consideration for Reserved. Would be nice if 10club explained how all this worked

gatorjam

JR86440 said:

So if somebody puts in GA Miami as first choice and Reserved Miami as second choice, both are being reflected in the ODDS calculator, correct? So. I am assuming once somebody wins GA that entry for Miami reserved is no longer valid and is "taken out". If that is the case, in reality, if odds are at 90% for reserved they are actually higher because those that win the GA will no longer be in consideration for Reserved. Would be nice if 10club explained how all this worked

That makes a lot sense, puts me at ease, for the moment.

JR86440

gatorjam said:

JR86440 said:

So if somebody puts in GA Miami as first choice and Reserved Miami as second choice, both are being reflected in the ODDS calculator, correct? So. I am assuming once somebody wins GA that entry for Miami reserved is no longer valid and is "taken out". If that is the case, in reality, if odds are at 90% for reserved they are actually higher because those that win the GA will no longer be in consideration for Reserved. Would be nice if 10club explained how all this worked

That makes a lot sense, puts me at ease, for the moment.

Yeah. Problem is we don't really know what is reflected, what is not etc. Trying to be very strategic here and would definitely help if we knew how it exactly worked

Isoworld13

I've already changed my selections 4 times. Everyday I look at the odds and redo my priorities to help give me the best shot at the most shows. SO glad that Fenway isn't in this lottery. That would take up my first 4 selections! Trying for Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Philly, & MSG.

marjen

I personally don't get this. Some people gamble too hard and list GA for all the highly sought after shows. Shouldn't be the fault of the person who played it smart by asking for reserved seating and/or opting to go to more low-key shows.

What I am saying is, everyone should get a crack at tickets before people can select a 2nd show. I think its only fair that as many members as possible get to see a show. Now its not perfect solution but if someone bucks the odds and wins NY and bucks the odds again and wins philly while someone lost both, thats not a great outcome.

SkyBreaksAtDawn

Just to answer a question someone had about not getting tickets. It has been a long time since I have received tickets from 10C through the lottery. I have been in the 10C since 1995.

I was shut out in 2014 with this priority - Cincy GA, Cincy RS, Det GA, Moline GA, Det RS, Moline RS
I was also shut out in 2013 with Pitt GA, Buffalo GA, Pitt RS, Buffalo RS
Also didn't get Wrigley.

I have 4 choices in 2015, and crossing fingers.

Isoworld13

You've got too many GA choices hurting your chances. GA has the smallest amount of tickets available. My theory is just make your 1st pick GA to the show you want the most. After that, reserved gives you the best chance at getting tickets. I would think that GA to EVERY show would be gone by the 3rd Choice lottery, so having any GA in any choice after #2 is just hurting your chances at all your other choices. Normally I choose GA as my first pick to the show I most want to see, then go RES with my 2nd choice for that show, then RES for all other picks down the line. If the show I really want to see is VERY popular, I skip GA and go right for RES with 1st pick. You take a risk going GA to the most popular shows because the ticket pool is so small, if you don't hit, and your #2 choice is RES for that show, you are still BEHIND all those that made RES their #1 pick.

dtr0624

Hampton will be the hidden gem. this tours version of cville 13. odds are great for both ga and reserved

whitepants

The last time I won a 10C lottery was in 2009 for the Vedder solo tour. I've been a member since 1996.

EnterThanman

marjen said:

I really think there is ONE change that needs to be implemented here. Someone should not be able to win tickets to multiple shows until everyone has a shot at tickets. SO basically take them out of the running unless everyone else who also wanted tickets and has not won the lottery for another show wins at least one show. That way at least more people will have an opportunity to see a show on the tour. Last time you would have people winning 7-8 shows worth of tickets and other people completely snubbed. That is not right.

In theory I 100% agree with this, but I'm just not sure the sophistication of the 10C system could accommodate it. I like the idea though.

Indifference

EnterThanman said:

marjen said:

I really think there is ONE change that needs to be implemented here. Someone should not be able to win tickets to multiple shows until everyone has a shot at tickets. SO basically take them out of the running unless everyone else who also wanted tickets and has not won the lottery for another show wins at least one show. That way at least more people will have an opportunity to see a show on the tour. Last time you would have people winning 7-8 shows worth of tickets and other people completely snubbed. That is not right.

In theory I 100% agree with this, but I'm just not sure the sophistication of the 10C system could accommodate it. I like the idea though.

It doesn't make sense though given supply and demand isn't the same for every show. Its possible someone puts in for 2 shows like NYC and Philly and gets completely shut out. Someone else puts in for 3 shows with less demand where everyone gets tickets and they get all 3. How does it work then? The second person only gets 1 show instead of 3 - even though there are plenty of tickets? Now that is not right.

JR86440

Isoworld13 said:

You've got too many GA choices hurting your chances. GA has the smallest amount of tickets available. My theory is just make your 1st pick GA to the show you want the most. After that, reserved gives you the best chance at getting tickets. I would think that GA to EVERY show would be gone by the 3rd Choice lottery, so having any GA in any choice after #2 is just hurting your chances at all your other choices. Normally I choose GA as my first pick to the show I most want to see, then go RES with my 2nd choice for that show, then RES for all other picks down the line. If the show I really want to see is VERY popular, I skip GA and go right for RES with 1st pick. You take a risk going GA to the most popular shows because the ticket pool is so small, if you don't hit, and your #2 choice is RES for that show, you are still BEHIND all those that made RES their #1 pick.

Shhhhhh... don't tell anybody. Everybody should put GA in for all the top picks then go to Reserved :-)

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dtr0624 said:

Hampton will be the hidden gem. this tours version of cville 13. odds are great for both ga and reserved

Unless there is no energy because nobody is there.....