Hampton will be the hidden gem. this tours version of cville 13. odds are great for both ga and reserved
Unless there is no energy because nobody is there.....
Cville had the same odds. remember in 13 they also had baltimore, charlotte, etc in the area and they still sold that show out. its gonna be a great show. trust me lol look out for big wave too being in virginia beach
I love this thread. If I were the TC I'd just mess with the %'s. I'd put NY down to 1% just to mess with us all!</blockquote
I would as well
2005 - London
2009 - Toronto
2010 - Buffalo
2011 - Toronto 1&2
2013 - London, Pittsburgh, Buffalo
2014 - Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit
2016 - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Ottawa, Toronto 1 2018 - Fenway 1&2 2022 - Hamilton, Toronto 2023 - Chicago 1&2
I really think there is ONE change that needs to be implemented here. Someone should not be able to win tickets to multiple shows until everyone has a shot at tickets. SO basically take them out of the running unless everyone else who also wanted tickets and has not won the lottery for another show wins at least one show. That way at least more people will have an opportunity to see a show on the tour. Last time you would have people winning 7-8 shows worth of tickets and other people completely snubbed. That is not right.
In theory I 100% agree with this, but I'm just not sure the sophistication of the 10C system could accommodate it. I like the idea though.
It doesn't make sense though given supply and demand isn't the same for every show. Its possible someone puts in for 2 shows like NYC and Philly and gets completely shut out. Someone else puts in for 3 shows with less demand where everyone gets tickets and they get all 3. How does it work then? The second person only gets 1 show instead of 3 - even though there are plenty of tickets? Now that is not right.
Supply and demand. In Philly 45 million people in a 200 mi radius.
I have Miami reserved seating as my 4th choice, if the percentage stays in high 80's (doubt it) you think there is a good chance I could get it still?
2005 - London
2009 - Toronto
2010 - Buffalo
2011 - Toronto 1&2
2013 - London, Pittsburgh, Buffalo
2014 - Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit
2016 - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Ottawa, Toronto 1 2018 - Fenway 1&2 2022 - Hamilton, Toronto 2023 - Chicago 1&2
I have Miami reserved seating as my 4th choice, if the percentage stays in high 80's (doubt it) you think there is a good chance I could get it still?
Yes because the people who win the GA seats probably have Reserved as their second choices so once they win GA, they are no longer being considered for Reserved. Right now if I put in for Miami reserved and Miami GA, both are being counted towards the percentages. Once I win the GA, I am no longer being considered for Reserved. Hope this makes sense
I have Miami reserved seating as my 4th choice, if the percentage stays in high 80's (doubt it) you think there is a good chance I could get it still?
Yes because the people who win the GA seats probably have Reserved as their second choices so once they win GA, they are no longer being considered for Reserved. Right now if I put in for Miami reserved and Miami GA, both are being counted towards the percentages. Once I win the GA, I am no longer being considered for Reserved. Hope this makes sense
it does and thanks.
2005 - London
2009 - Toronto
2010 - Buffalo
2011 - Toronto 1&2
2013 - London, Pittsburgh, Buffalo
2014 - Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit
2016 - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Ottawa, Toronto 1 2018 - Fenway 1&2 2022 - Hamilton, Toronto 2023 - Chicago 1&2
2. So if PJ has 500 tickets in GA and only 300 people are requesting it, the percentage is still 99% because all people that requested it should win (always that 1 percent we messed up scenario).
.
Actually the percentage there would be 83%. 500 tickets, 300 requests. Each request is for a pair, so 600 tickets requested. So 250 of those 300 requests would be filled.
Here's the easiest way to understand the numbers: the value shown simply indicates the percentage of members who will get tickets for that particular option. The big variable, as many people have noted, is where in their priority list they placed it.
So, for instance, MSG1 GA at 11% simply means that 11% of the people who requested it so far will win tickets. It doesn't actually/accurately indicate your odds of being one of the 11%. Of course, (and this has also been said), the 11% is accurate only to the extent that people choose MSG1 GA as their first pick. So logically the actual number of people who will get tickets will be some value higher than 11%.
This is from th info page under the odds/lottery information. Also states that this tool was designed to show the demand for any given show.
"- After entering, you may win or lose any given ticket type regardless of odds because the drawing is a random luck of the draw. "
As much as we try, we can't figure it out, too many unknowns in the rules. Put in for your most wanted shows and hope the pearl jam universe smiles on us.
amy
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
Let me start with saying I barely got a C in statistics and I have never been able to fully master figuring pot odds. There is no way I can understand this odds calculator.
I don't think anyone has asked this question. Suppose I select these shows: 1st: NY1 GA 2nd: NY2 GA 3rd: NY1 Reserved 4th: NY2 Reserved 5th: Jacksonville GA And then let's say I pray to the rock gods and I am selected for my 1st priority tickets. My 2nd, 3rd, and 4th selections are no longer eligible. Would this move my Jacksonville up to my 2nd choice or do you think I have to wait until they reach the 5th round of drawings for me to be able to get into Jacksonville. (And I realize some might think I should consider myself lucky to have gotten NY1 GA and let someone else go to Jacksonville, but...)
I know, no one can answer this question for me. Just throwing another wrench into the mix of anxiety.
So I don't know if this has been discussed in this thread, but there were several shows in 2013 where they had second chance lottery for shows where either they got more tickets allotted from the arenas or there were left overs not claimed. Would not count on it this time around but could happen for some of the less profile shows...
Also was wondering how reserved really works. If I put it as 1st priority with number (made up) like 500xxx and someone else put it second or less likely 3rd priority with more senior better number, will they have better seats even though I put it as first priority?? I know reserved seats are given by seniority, but does priority ranking matter???
So I don't know if this has been discussed in this thread, but there were several shows in 2013 where they had second chance lottery for shows where either they got more tickets allotted from the arenas or there were left overs not claimed. Would not count on it this time around but could happen for some of the less profile shows...
Also was wondering how reserved really works. If I put it as 1st priority with number (made up) like 500xxx and someone else put it second or less likely 3rd priority with more senior better number, will they have better seats even though I put it as first priority?? I know reserved seats are given by seniority, but does priority ranking matter???
Seniority only comes into play when you win reserved seats. Their location is determined by your seniority. Your priority only increases or decreases your chances of actually being drawn. It does not determine where your seats are.
Post edited by Leezestarr313 on
Please, Pearl Jam, consider a Benaroya Hall vinyl reissue!
Seniority only comes into play when you win reserved seats. Their location is determined by your seniority. Your priority only increases or decreases your chances of actually being drawn. It does not determine where your seats are.
Which means if the other person has a higher seniority, been longer in the Tenclub, they get better seats than you, no matter what priority they won with.
Post edited by Leezestarr313 on
Please, Pearl Jam, consider a Benaroya Hall vinyl reissue!
Let me start with saying I barely got a C in statistics and I have never been able to fully master figuring pot odds. There is no way I can understand this odds calculator.
I don't think anyone has asked this question. Suppose I select these shows: 1st: NY1 GA 2nd: NY2 GA 3rd: NY1 Reserved 4th: NY2 Reserved 5th: Jacksonville GA And then let's say I pray to the rock gods and I am selected for my 1st priority tickets. My 2nd, 3rd, and 4th selections are no longer eligible. Would this move my Jacksonville up to my 2nd choice or do you think I have to wait until they reach the 5th round of drawings for me to be able to get into Jacksonville. (And I realize some might think I should consider myself lucky to have gotten NY1 GA and let someone else go to Jacksonville, but...)
I know, no one can answer this question for me. Just throwing another wrench into the mix of anxiety.
I think you're better off putting NY GA 1st then Jacksonville 2nd
The odds of you getting any of the NYC tickets below 1st choice is very, very slim
Atleast, from what I understand. I could be wrong, though.
2010: Cleveland 2012: Atlanta 2013: London ONT / Wrigley Field / Pittsburgh / Buffalo / San Diego / Los Angeles I / Los Angeles II 2014: Cincinnati / St. Louis / Tulsa / Lincoln / Detroit / Denver 2015: New York City 2016: Ft. Lauderdale / Miami / Jacksonville / Greenville / Hampton / Columbia / Lexington / Philly II / New York City II / Toronto II / Bonnaroo / Telluride / Fenway I / Wrigley I / Wrigley - II / TOTD - Philadelphia, San Francisco 2017: Ohana Fest (EV) 2018: Amsterdam I / Amsterdam II / Seattle I / Seattle II / Boston I / Boston II 2021: Asbury Park / Ohana Encore 1 / Ohana Encore 2 2022: Phoenix / LA I / LA II / Quebec City / Ottawa / New York City / Camden / Nashville / St. Louis / Denver 2023: St. Paul II
Let me start with saying I barely got a C in statistics and I have never been able to fully master figuring pot odds. There is no way I can understand this odds calculator.
I don't think anyone has asked this question. Suppose I select these shows: 1st: NY1 GA 2nd: NY2 GA 3rd: NY1 Reserved 4th: NY2 Reserved 5th: Jacksonville GA And then let's say I pray to the rock gods and I am selected for my 1st priority tickets. My 2nd, 3rd, and 4th selections are no longer eligible. Would this move my Jacksonville up to my 2nd choice or do you think I have to wait until they reach the 5th round of drawings for me to be able to get into Jacksonville. (And I realize some might think I should consider myself lucky to have gotten NY1 GA and let someone else go to Jacksonville, but...)
I know, no one can answer this question for me. Just throwing another wrench into the mix of anxiety.
I think you're better off putting NY GA 1st then Jacksonville 2nd
The odds of you getting any of the NYC tickets below 1st choice is very, very slim
Atleast, from what I understand. I could be wrong, though.
Agreed, or possibly
NY1 GA NY2 res Jack GA Then whatever...
I think most people who put in for NY put 4 choices so it really brings down the numbers.
a quick question about odds lets say a shows says,30% thats means with simple mathematics 3 out of 10 people will score tic.. so if 10c has 1000 pair of tickets and 3000 members enter lottery 1000 of them will score tix now..is this 30% odds,of all people enter,or only fisrt priority? cos i guess in ny for exable the people will score must have that show only 1st priority.. no way to win ga at ny if its not your 1st priority. so the second show at ny u put as 2nd priority is a no score option for sure cos if they have for exable 1000 pairs for ny,im sure will be sold to members put it as 1st priority and anyone put ga at ny as 2nd,3rd priority there is not a chance to score cos members have it as 1st priority will get them all
"...Dimitri...He talks to me...'.."The Ghost of Greece..".
"..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
“..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”
Haven't kept up with this thread because it just confuses me but I have a quick question...if the percentage of my 5th choice is 99% am I guaranteed to win?
This show, another show, a show here and a show there.
the 30% odds is of all people who put in, whether it is first choice or 8th choice. I wouldnt even try for NY GA. The odds just arent there. You get maybe a 10% chance of winning, then you need to hope you get picked with your second pick. By then, all the reserved tix may very well be gone. For me, I have pretty much changed my philosophy. I am only going for GA if the odds are VERY MUCH in my favor. If not, I just go reserved. My 4 top choices are all reserved. Compare that to the guy who uses Lauderdale GA as 1, Reserved as 2, Miami GA as 3 and Miami Reserved as 4. Two shows, 4 picks. I have 4 shows with my 4 top picks.
Haven't kept up with this thread because it just confuses me but I have a quick question...if the percentage of my 5th choice is 99% am I guaranteed to win?
I think there's a reason it says 99% and not 100%. That said, I would feel comfortable going for 99% seats with any selection.
Comments
2013 - Philly 1, philly 2, charlottesville,
2015 - NYC (global citizen)
2016 - Philly 1&2
2022 - Camden
2009 - Toronto
2010 - Buffalo
2011 - Toronto 1&2
2013 - London, Pittsburgh, Buffalo
2014 - Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit
2016 - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Ottawa, Toronto 1
2018 - Fenway 1&2
2022 - Hamilton, Toronto
2023 - Chicago 1&2
2009 - Toronto
2010 - Buffalo
2011 - Toronto 1&2
2013 - London, Pittsburgh, Buffalo
2014 - Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit
2016 - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Ottawa, Toronto 1
2018 - Fenway 1&2
2022 - Hamilton, Toronto
2023 - Chicago 1&2
2009 - Toronto
2010 - Buffalo
2011 - Toronto 1&2
2013 - London, Pittsburgh, Buffalo
2014 - Cincinnati, St. Louis, Detroit
2016 - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Ottawa, Toronto 1
2018 - Fenway 1&2
2022 - Hamilton, Toronto
2023 - Chicago 1&2
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So, for instance, MSG1 GA at 11% simply means that 11% of the people who requested it so far will win tickets. It doesn't actually/accurately indicate your odds of being one of the 11%. Of course, (and this has also been said), the 11% is accurate only to the extent that people choose MSG1 GA as their first pick. So logically the actual number of people who will get tickets will be some value higher than 11%.
"- After entering, you may win or lose any given ticket type regardless of odds because the drawing is a random luck of the draw. "
As much as we try, we can't figure it out, too many unknowns in the rules. Put in for your most wanted shows and hope the pearl jam universe smiles on us.
amy
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
I don't think anyone has asked this question. Suppose I select these shows:
1st: NY1 GA
2nd: NY2 GA
3rd: NY1 Reserved
4th: NY2 Reserved
5th: Jacksonville GA
And then let's say I pray to the rock gods and I am selected for my 1st priority tickets. My 2nd, 3rd, and 4th selections are no longer eligible. Would this move my Jacksonville up to my 2nd choice or do you think I have to wait until they reach the 5th round of drawings for me to be able to get into Jacksonville. (And I realize some might think I should consider myself lucky to have gotten NY1 GA and let someone else go to Jacksonville, but...)
I know, no one can answer this question for me. Just throwing another wrench into the mix of anxiety.
Also was wondering how reserved really works. If I put it as 1st priority with number (made up) like 500xxx and someone else put it second or less likely 3rd priority with more senior better number, will they have better seats even though I put it as first priority?? I know reserved seats are given by seniority, but does priority ranking matter???
Seniority only comes into play when you win reserved seats. Their location is determined by your seniority. Your priority only increases or decreases your chances of actually being drawn. It does not determine where your seats are.
Trieste 14, Vienna 14, Gdynia 14, Leeds 14, Milton Keynes 14, Denver 14
Central Park 15
Fort Lauderdale 16, Miami 16, Tampa 16, Jacksonville 16, Greenville 16, Hampton 16, Columbia 16, Lexington 16, Philly1 16, Philly2 16, NYC1 16, NYC2 16, Quebec City 16, Ottawa 16, Toronto1 16, Toronto2 16, Fenway1 16, Fenway2 16, Wrigley1 16, Wrigley2 16
The odds of you getting any of the NYC tickets below 1st choice is very, very slim
Atleast, from what I understand. I could be wrong, though.
2012: Atlanta
2013: London ONT / Wrigley Field / Pittsburgh / Buffalo / San Diego / Los Angeles I / Los Angeles II
2014: Cincinnati / St. Louis / Tulsa / Lincoln / Detroit / Denver
2015: New York City
2016: Ft. Lauderdale / Miami / Jacksonville / Greenville / Hampton / Columbia / Lexington / Philly II / New York City II / Toronto II / Bonnaroo / Telluride / Fenway I / Wrigley I / Wrigley - II / TOTD - Philadelphia, San Francisco
2017: Ohana Fest (EV)
2018: Amsterdam I / Amsterdam II / Seattle I / Seattle II / Boston I / Boston II
2021: Asbury Park / Ohana Encore 1 / Ohana Encore 2
2022: Phoenix / LA I / LA II / Quebec City / Ottawa / New York City / Camden / Nashville / St. Louis / Denver
2023: St. Paul II
NY1 GA
NY2 res
Jack GA
Then whatever...
I think most people who put in for NY put 4 choices so it really brings down the numbers.
Those that can be trusted can change their mind.
lets say a shows says,30%
thats means with simple mathematics 3 out of 10 people will score tic..
so if 10c has 1000 pair of tickets and 3000 members enter lottery 1000 of them will score tix
now..is this 30% odds,of all people enter,or only fisrt priority?
cos i guess in ny for exable the people will score must have that show only 1st priority..
no way to win ga at ny if its not your 1st priority.
so the second show at ny u put as 2nd priority is a no score option for sure
cos if they have for exable 1000 pairs for ny,im sure will be sold to members put it as 1st priority
and anyone put ga at ny as 2nd,3rd priority there is not a chance to score cos members have it as 1st priority will get them all
"..That's One Happy Fuckin Ghost.."
“..That came up on the Pillow Case...This is for the Greek, With Our Apologies.....”