If you want tickets to both shows, put in for Reserved for both. I would think put in the show with the best odds first. Dont bother with GA if you want both
Yeah that is what I've been thinking too. I know going reserved is a safer bet but the temptation of having a shot to be close to the stage is overwhelming. Perhaps I'm better off just attending Ottawa and going all out for it.
Well as of now Ottawa is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way go GA first for Ottawa and then reserved for 2nd choice. If the odds are still the same you should be guaranteed reserved. Toronto either way looks like a toss up.
I think in one of the last tours it happened that people got GA with their sixth choice or so. Wasn't it the case with the last Philly show that it was actually pretty easy to get tickets in the end?
Philly reserved night 2 was given out to many people (including myself) way down their list
It was my ninth choice and the only thing I won
Seemed fluky to me
That's funny, we got shut out on both Philly 2 entries... and won both Philly 1 entries
I think they were on a Monday and Tuesday so it wasn't even like one day was more desirable than the other
And to be honest, night 1 was better
dont worry amigo, I was in the building for both!
Oh yea I figured you were. Night 2 gave me my one and only Parachutes so it was still memorable for me. But I was feeling under the weather and drove home that night and worked in NYC that Wednesday! Plus I got 1 $300 parking ticket earlier that day which pissed me off haha.
If you want tickets to both shows, put in for Reserved for both. I would think put in the show with the best odds first. Dont bother with GA if you want both
Yeah that is what I've been thinking too. I know going reserved is a safer bet but the temptation of having a shot to be close to the stage is overwhelming. Perhaps I'm better off just attending Ottawa and going all out for it.
Well as of now Ottawa is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way go GA first for Ottawa and then reserved for 2nd choice. If the odds are still the same you should be guaranteed reserved. Toronto either way looks like a toss up.
If you want tickets to both shows, put in for Reserved for both. I would think put in the show with the best odds first. Dont bother with GA if you want both
Yeah that is what I've been thinking too. I know going reserved is a safer bet but the temptation of having a shot to be close to the stage is overwhelming. Perhaps I'm better off just attending Ottawa and going all out for it.
Well as of now Ottawa is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way go GA first for Ottawa and then reserved for 2nd choice. If the odds are still the same you should be guaranteed reserved. Toronto either way looks like a toss up.
I am still not %100 (pun intended) on how this odds tool really works. I understand it like the following, is this wrong? ex- City1 has 100tix for reserved seating. If 40 people chose this would the odds shown be at %60 ?
What if 500 people choose City1 reserved seating? What would the odds show?
If you want tickets to both shows, put in for Reserved for both. I would think put in the show with the best odds first. Dont bother with GA if you want both
Yeah that is what I've been thinking too. I know going reserved is a safer bet but the temptation of having a shot to be close to the stage is overwhelming. Perhaps I'm better off just attending Ottawa and going all out for it.
Well as of now Ottawa is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way go GA first for Ottawa and then reserved for 2nd choice. If the odds are still the same you should be guaranteed reserved. Toronto either way looks like a toss up.
Add in the fact that shows like MSG allows members to only get tickets to one show, and I'm sure the numbers skew dramatically too (even though I'm trying for both nights, at most I'll only get one show).
I've read some interesting theories on how percentages work, so here's mine (which should be pretty accurate).
1. It's always 99% and never 100 so they can't get sued. There's always a chance you won't get a ticket. 2. Once there are more requests than the tickets that PJ has to give away, the percentage goes down. So if PJ has 500 tickets in GA and only 300 people are requesting it, the percentage is still 99% because all people that requested it should win (always that 1 percent we messed up scenario). 3. Once the demand exceeds the allotment, the percentage goes down. 4. Now let's say you want a show that is at 25%. That basically means for every 25 tickets PJ has, 100 people are requesting it. So if they had 500 GA tickets, and it's at 25%, that means 2,000 people are trying for those 500 tickets. 5. Here's where things get harder and impossible to figure out. You have no idea how many people that want the same tickets as you have your show as priority 1. So if you want MSG GA and that's your priority 1, in theory, you should only be competing against people who also want MSG GA as their priority 1. In theory, this would be lower than the 2000 number I pulled out of my ass in #4.
Basically just pick what you want and hope for the best.
Post edited by JB128716 on
92 - Orlando
03 - Tampa
08 - Tampa
12 - DeLuna Fest, EV Orlando 1 & 2, EV Ft Lauderdale 1 & 2
13 - Wrigley!!! ,Brooklyn 1 & 2, Hartford, OKC, Seattle
14 - Leeds, Milton Keynes, St Louis
16 - Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Wrigley 1 & 2
I'm just kidding. Math is hard. I have no idea how that percentage list works. All I know is it's upsetting me greatly and leading me to google "Hampton, VA" cuz like what the fuck
Ha, Ha Maybe it is Pearl Jam messing with us. What if the odds tool is actually showing the %chance that you will not get tickets if you choose that selection
Don't understand odds percentage at all. Only way it would make sense to me is if it was for first choice only. Watching it go down making me nervous and wonder if I should switch my picks.
I wish I could recall what the percentages were for my picks in 2013. I got my first, third, and fifth picks (fourth automatically canceling out as it was the seats to my GA pick for #1). I felt lucky, I remember that much.
Has anyone got GA tickets after the first pick, or even better, after their second pick?
Virginia Beach 2000; Pittsburgh 2000; Columbus 2003; D.C. 2003; Pittsburgh 2006; Virginia Beach 2008; Cleveland 2010; PJ20 2011; Pittsburgh 2013; Baltimore 2013; Charlottesville 2013; Charlotte 2013; Lincoln 2014; Moline 2014; St. Paul 2014; Greenville 2016; Hampton 2016; Lexington 2016; Wrigley 2016; Prague 2018; Krakow 2018; Berlin 2018; Fenway 2018; Camden 2022; St. Paul 2023
I wish I could recall what the percentages were for my picks in 2013. I got my first, third, and fifth picks (fourth automatically canceling out as it was the seats to my GA pick for #1). I felt lucky, I remember that much.
Has anyone got GA tickets after the first pick, or even better, after their second pick?
In 2013 I had Philly 2 reserved as 1st pick and Philly 2 GA as second pick (thinking odds were better to get reserved). Somehow, I didn't get reserved 1st pick but got GA 2nd pick. Kind of makes me think that they actually lump all the applicants for individual shows together (especially since there's probably very high overlap of people applying for both) and sort out the reserved/ga thing later.
TFC '97, TFC '98, Pittsburgh '98, Camden I,II '98, Camden I,II '00, Pittsburgh '00, Philly '03, Camden I,II '03, MSG I,II '03, Hershey '03, Reading '04, Philly '05, Camden I,II '06, Meadowlands I '06, Camden I,II '08, DC '08, Spectrum I,II,III,IV '09, Made in America '12, Philly I,II '13, GCF '15, Philly I,II '16, MSG I '16, Apollo ‘22, MSG ‘22, Camden ‘22
I wish I could recall what the percentages were for my picks in 2013. I got my first, third, and fifth picks (fourth automatically canceling out as it was the seats to my GA pick for #1). I felt lucky, I remember that much.
So your third and fifth were not GA?
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
I wish I could recall what the percentages were for my picks in 2013. I got my first, third, and fifth picks (fourth automatically canceling out as it was the seats to my GA pick for #1). I felt lucky, I remember that much.
So your third and fifth were not GA?
They were not. Only my first pick was GA (Charlottesville, it was great!). Was just wondering if I should try for GA after my first selection, as I'm seeing conflicting news here.
Virginia Beach 2000; Pittsburgh 2000; Columbus 2003; D.C. 2003; Pittsburgh 2006; Virginia Beach 2008; Cleveland 2010; PJ20 2011; Pittsburgh 2013; Baltimore 2013; Charlottesville 2013; Charlotte 2013; Lincoln 2014; Moline 2014; St. Paul 2014; Greenville 2016; Hampton 2016; Lexington 2016; Wrigley 2016; Prague 2018; Krakow 2018; Berlin 2018; Fenway 2018; Camden 2022; St. Paul 2023
Does someone have a strategy for if a high number should go for reserved as a second option if there is no way they want to get floor seats? At the moment the venue I would like to go to is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way will we get good seats no matter what from your guys's experience or are they still obliged to fill up the floor like they are for GA. I would rather pay a couple of extra bucks then to have my wife and I not see any of the show.
Easy way to look at it: Once a show has less than 99% that means there's a chance it could be your first choice and you won't get it.
I'm not sure this is really the case. If a show is at, say 90%, it could be that there are MORE available tickets than there are FIRST choices but once SECOND choices are factored in (and only then), the demand exceeds supply. In that scenario all first choices will still get tickets despite the percentage being less than 99%. The reality is virtually everyone will have second choices (and more) thus all listed percentages are likely worse than they seem. This effect is exacerbated even further in Philly and NY because you can't even win your second choice, though undoubtedly most will have one listed.
Then ten club email said (paraphrased) that the percents are a ratio of the available tickets to the requested number of tickets. As they made no mention of whether choice number factors in to this, we have to assume it means that 2nd,3rd,etc choices DO count in computing the percentage. In fact, since there are plenty of people that WILL get their second choices (outside of Philly and NY) it means that the percentages should factor in those choices as the second choices are valid requests that will be filled in some cases.
If you want tickets to both shows, put in for Reserved for both. I would think put in the show with the best odds first. Dont bother with GA if you want both
Yeah that is what I've been thinking too. I know going reserved is a safer bet but the temptation of having a shot to be close to the stage is overwhelming. Perhaps I'm better off just attending Ottawa and going all out for it.
Well as of now Ottawa is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way go GA first for Ottawa and then reserved for 2nd choice. If the odds are still the same you should be guaranteed reserved. Toronto either way looks like a toss up.
it seems a lot of people struggle with the concept of a lottery... just use the % as a general guide to the interest in the show... don't over think it, I still go for my local show as #1 priority no matter what
Comments
Yeah that is what I've been thinking too. I know going reserved is a safer bet but the temptation of having a shot to be close to the stage is overwhelming. Perhaps I'm better off just attending Ottawa and going all out for it.
Well as of now Ottawa is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way go GA first for Ottawa and then reserved for 2nd choice. If the odds are still the same you should be guaranteed reserved. Toronto either way looks like a toss up.
2010: Newark 5/18 MSG 5/20-21 2011: PJ20 9/3-4 2012: Made In America 9/2
2013: Brooklyn 10/18-19 Philly 10/21-22 Hartford 10/25 2014: ACL10/12
2015: NYC 9/23 2016: Tampa 4/11 Philly 4/28-29 MSG 5/1-2 Fenway 8/5+8/7
2017: RRHoF 4/7 2018: Fenway 9/2+9/4 2021: Sea Hear Now 9/18
2022: MSG 9/11 2024: MSG 9/3-4 Philly 9/7+9/9 Fenway 9/15+9/17
Well as of now Ottawa is 99% for reserved. If it stays that way go GA first for Ottawa and then reserved for 2nd choice. If the odds are still the same you should be guaranteed reserved. Toronto either way looks like a toss up.
Yeah I'm not holding out much hope for Toronto.
Yeah I'm not holding out much hope for Toronto.
Or the credence.
I understand it like the following, is this wrong?
ex- City1 has 100tix for reserved seating.
If 40 people chose this would the odds shown be at %60 ?
What if 500 people choose City1 reserved seating? What would the odds show?
Make sense to anyone?
Or the credence.
1. It's always 99% and never 100 so they can't get sued. There's always a chance you won't get a ticket.
2. Once there are more requests than the tickets that PJ has to give away, the percentage goes down. So if PJ has 500 tickets in GA and only 300 people are requesting it, the percentage is still 99% because all people that requested it should win (always that 1 percent we messed up scenario).
3. Once the demand exceeds the allotment, the percentage goes down.
4. Now let's say you want a show that is at 25%. That basically means for every 25 tickets PJ has, 100 people are requesting it. So if they had 500 GA tickets, and it's at 25%, that means 2,000 people are trying for those 500 tickets.
5. Here's where things get harder and impossible to figure out. You have no idea how many people that want the same tickets as you have your show as priority 1. So if you want MSG GA and that's your priority 1, in theory, you should only be competing against people who also want MSG GA as their priority 1. In theory, this would be lower than the 2000 number I pulled out of my ass in #4.
Basically just pick what you want and hope for the best.
03 - Tampa
08 - Tampa
12 - DeLuna Fest, EV Orlando 1 & 2, EV Ft Lauderdale 1 & 2
13 - Wrigley!!! ,Brooklyn 1 & 2, Hartford, OKC, Seattle
14 - Leeds, Milton Keynes, St Louis
16 - Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Wrigley 1 & 2
Maybe it is Pearl Jam messing with us.
What if the odds tool is actually showing the %chance that you will not get tickets if you choose that selection
Has anyone got GA tickets after the first pick, or even better, after their second pick?
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
Me on Thursday morning
Friday
Those that can be trusted can change their mind.
Then ten club email said (paraphrased) that the percents are a ratio of the available tickets to the requested number of tickets. As they made no mention of whether choice number factors in to this, we have to assume it means that 2nd,3rd,etc choices DO count in computing the percentage. In fact, since there are plenty of people that WILL get their second choices (outside of Philly and NY) it means that the percentages should factor in those choices as the second choices are valid requests that will be filled in some cases.
Or the credence.
well played
Philly 1 - 23%
Philly 2 - 19%
MSG 1 - 12%
MSG 2 - 14%
Toronto - 17%
I wouldn't put high percentage reserved too far down the list. I had philly reserved 4th last year and got nothing.
Philly 1
Philly 2
Baltimore
Charlottesville
Charlotte
Memphis
and then we added Moline, but still, you have good taste in 10c lottery selections! lol