Politicos always say not having two speeches written is the ultimate no-no. But it wouldn't shock me if they didn't.
I read your post about being wrong about predictions, props for that, I too was wrong. I read thru the posts in prediction thread and nobody predicted a trump win, nobody. Maybe uncle godfather but that's it.
Thanks man. I am in stunned disbelief here. Never thought this could happen.
Guess the xanees see taking awhile to kick in! I'll say this, with all that was in her favor it takes courage to talk about how you ran one of the worse presidential campaigns in history.
The DNC in 2000 chose the only recount in Florida that would prove Bush the winner, the DNC in 2016 chose the only nominee that would make Trump the winner.
Hillary is fine as are the gerrymandered guaranteed re elected republicans. They're just frustrated there's no "there" there and they've squandered 7 years and have 0 credibility outside their districts. Trump woot woot!
Should Mr. Trump clinch the presidential nomination, it would represent a rout of historic proportions for the institutional Republican Party, and could set off an internal rift unseen in either party for a half-century, since white Southerners abandoned the Democratic Party en masse during the civil rights movement.
Former Gov. Michael O. Leavitt of Utah, a top adviser to Mr. Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, said the party was unable to come up with a united front to quash Mr. Trump’s campaign.
Electoral math. Democrats have to give back several states won twice by Obama to flip the country. Not saying it cannot or will not happen, just that Republicans face a difficult path.
Yeah and the Faux News zombies still haven't figured it out. The GOP needed a savior to have any hope in November....it isn't going to be Trumpenstein.
Actually I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned on this forum yet. This entire election of the Trump and Hillary show is a well-planned out scheme by the two of them to rig the American election. I'm not worried about Trump you know why? And I've talk to people about this and they've agreed as well.
Trump is only in it to give the election to Hillary, his good friend Hillary. I don't take him seriously. And I don't really think he wants to be in charge, hence the lack of concrete policies and plans. This appears to be in great fun for him, you can tell he's enjoying it. Why not? He loves the media attention. And his ego.
Watch carefully, and don't just discount this idea. Because it may very well be what's going on.
My intuition says he will drop out voluntarily because his intention was never to actually win. Just sit back and watch. Anyone with half a brain would not act like he does if they really were serious about winning. Think about it. Just keep your mind open and think about it.
Here is some fascinating statistics, published today by Politico. The punchline is that Trump would need to win 70% of white males in order to win the general election. But here's what's working against him: - No GOP candidate in the last half century has won more than 63% of white males - The turnout rate for white males is very high already, so not much 'enthusiasm' room to grow - Trump's favorable/unfavorable for Hispanics is -50%. That's astoundingly bad. Experts predict he might get 15% of the Hispanic vote. Bush peaked at 35%. Everyone else on the GOP has been much lower. Estimates are that Hispanic turnout will be 15% greater in '16 than in '12. So Trump's problem is exasperated even vs. Romney. - Asian-Americans are also similarly negative on him. - Romney only won 5% of the black vote in 2012. Don't think for a second that Obama is not going to savage Trump in the run up to the election. There is no way he will get the 12% Bush got. - Women are just as bad of a problem. Dems typically win 53% of the woman vote. He has to win 62% of all women + 70% of white men.
Nate Silver has posted reasons why his 538 site (currently showing Clinton's chance of winning at 66%) gives Trump more of a chance than some of the other models. Princeton shows Clinton with a 99% chance of winning. Pretty bold.
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
Nate was the only one giving him a chance, and had repeatedly warned that Trump had a chance and that he was a few percentage points of polling error to win. For every 3 coin flips Trump could win, those are not bad odds.
Here is some fascinating statistics, published today by Politico. The punchline is that Trump would need to win 70% of white males in order to win the general election. But here's what's working against him: - No GOP candidate in the last half century has won more than 63% of white males - The turnout rate for white males is very high already, so not much 'enthusiasm' room to grow - Trump's favorable/unfavorable for Hispanics is -50%. That's astoundingly bad. Experts predict he might get 15% of the Hispanic vote. Bush peaked at 35%. Everyone else on the GOP has been much lower. Estimates are that Hispanic turnout will be 15% greater in '16 than in '12. So Trump's problem is exasperated even vs. Romney. - Asian-Americans are also similarly negative on him. - Romney only won 5% of the black vote in 2012. Don't think for a second that Obama is not going to savage Trump in the run up to the election. There is no way he will get the 12% Bush got. - Women are just as bad of a problem. Dems typically win 53% of the woman vote. He has to win 62% of all women + 70% of white men.
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
Nate was the only one giving him a chance, and had repeatedly warned that Trump had a chance and that he was a few percentage points of polling error to win. For every 3 coin flips Trump could win, those are not bad odds.
I was just wondering because even at 6pm last night he had Clinton with a 78% chance of winning. Yes, that gives Trump a 22% chance... but come on. It was a serious failure of political polling, which he is supposed to specialize in. I bet this hurts his career.
Post edited by PJ_Soul on
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
Nate was the only one giving him a chance, and had repeatedly warned that Trump had a chance and that he was a few percentage points of polling error to win. For every 3 coin flips Trump could win, those are not bad odds.
I was just wondering because even at 6pm last night he had Clinton with a 78% chance of winning. Yes, that gives Trump a 22% chance... but come on. It was a serious failure of political polling, which he is supposed to specialize in. I bet this hurts his career.
he is probably done... just like everyone at the DNC affiliated with the Clinton machine.
2000- Atlanta, GA: New Orleans, LA: Memphis, TN: Nashville, TN
2003- Raleigh, NC: Charlotte, NC: Atlanta, GA
2004- Asheville, NC (hometown show)
2006- Cincinnati, OH
2008- Columbia, SC
2009- Chicago, IL x 2 / Ed Vedder- Atlanta, GA x 2
2010- Bristow, VA
2011- Alpine Valley, WI (PJ20) x 2 / Ed Vedder- Chicago, IL
2012- Atlanta, GA
2013- Charlotte, NC
2014- Cincinnati, OH
2015- New York, NY
2016- Greenville, SC: Hampton, VA:: Columbia, SC: Raleigh, NC : Lexington, KY: Philly, PA 2: (Wrigley) Chicago, IL x 2 (holy shit): Temple of the Dog- Philly, PA
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
Nate was the only one giving him a chance, and had repeatedly warned that Trump had a chance and that he was a few percentage points of polling error to win. For every 3 coin flips Trump could win, those are not bad odds.
I was just wondering because even at 6pm last night he had Clinton with a 78% chance of winning. Yes, that gives Trump a 22% chance... but come on. It was a serious failure of political polling, which he is supposed to specialize in. I bet this hurts his career.
That was during election night. Seeing the early returns in Florida looked good for Clinton, that's why her chances were better. Look to about 3 days leading up to the election. Most outlets had her in the 90% to 99% range and they were laughing at Nate and his 65% range. He was wrong, and I'm sure it hurts, but not that wrong.
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
Nate was the only one giving him a chance, and had repeatedly warned that Trump had a chance and that he was a few percentage points of polling error to win. For every 3 coin flips Trump could win, those are not bad odds.
I was just wondering because even at 6pm last night he had Clinton with a 78% chance of winning. Yes, that gives Trump a 22% chance... but come on. It was a serious failure of political polling, which he is supposed to specialize in. I bet this hurts his career.
That was during election night. Seeing the early returns in Florida looked good for Clinton, that's why her chances were better. Look to about 3 days leading up to the election. Most outlets had her in the 90% to 99% range and they were laughing at Nate and his 65% range. He was wrong, and I'm sure it hurts, but not that wrong.
Fair enough, I guess it stands out because he is the only person I have ever seen hang his own name and personal reputation to political polling. I actually thought that was strange, but wasn't quite sure why... now I think I have some clarity, lol. BTW, there might be a lot of broke people and a few new rich people in BC right now. It turns out that this US election was the most betted-on event in our history, lol. Even more than the superbowl. And Trump winning had pretty high odds. Now I wish I'd thrown down a few bucks on him, lol. Actually, it did occur to me (it was all set up online by the BCLC), but I figured betting for Trump to win was just morally wrong.
Post edited by PJ_Soul on
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Here is some fascinating statistics, published today by Politico. The punchline is that Trump would need to win 70% of white males in order to win the general election. But here's what's working against him: - No GOP candidate in the last half century has won more than 63% of white males - The turnout rate for white males is very high already, so not much 'enthusiasm' room to grow - Trump's favorable/unfavorable for Hispanics is -50%. That's astoundingly bad. Experts predict he might get 15% of the Hispanic vote. Bush peaked at 35%. Everyone else on the GOP has been much lower. Estimates are that Hispanic turnout will be 15% greater in '16 than in '12. So Trump's problem is exasperated even vs. Romney. - Asian-Americans are also similarly negative on him. - Romney only won 5% of the black vote in 2012. Don't think for a second that Obama is not going to savage Trump in the run up to the election. There is no way he will get the 12% Bush got. - Women are just as bad of a problem. Dems typically win 53% of the woman vote. He has to win 62% of all women + 70% of white men.
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
Nate was the only one giving him a chance, and had repeatedly warned that Trump had a chance and that he was a few percentage points of polling error to win. For every 3 coin flips Trump could win, those are not bad odds.
I was just wondering because even at 6pm last night he had Clinton with a 78% chance of winning. Yes, that gives Trump a 22% chance... but come on. It was a serious failure of political polling, which he is supposed to specialize in. I bet this hurts his career.
CNN and you liberal rag is done as the rest of your polling bullshit
CNN was very good at the coverage tonight until it was clear their message wasn't getting through to the blue. Polls? What are those? Flush.
polls have always meant nothing.
True. I mentioned long ago that the exact same thing happened in the last provincial elections in BC. All polls indicated a sure win with a comfortable margin for NDP right up until the polls closed, and then the Liberals won. I haven't trusted political polls since. I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
Nate was the only one giving him a chance, and had repeatedly warned that Trump had a chance and that he was a few percentage points of polling error to win. For every 3 coin flips Trump could win, those are not bad odds.
I was just wondering because even at 6pm last night he had Clinton with a 78% chance of winning. Yes, that gives Trump a 22% chance... but come on. It was a serious failure of political polling, which he is supposed to specialize in. I bet this hurts his career.
The only person who saw it at 6pm was me.
Well I guess you're a genius, lol. I figured the swing states might pull it out.... Also, someone was trolling here and making fake announcements before I even got home. Silly me, I thought he wasn't lying, so thought things were going better than they really were before I even got home. I dunno, I think I figured it would be Trump for sure around 7pm Pacific. I watched a little longer after that and then turned it off in disgust. I woke up at 1am for some reason, and checked to see if maybe Clinton somehow eked out a win... obviously I had trouble getting back to sleep.
Post edited by PJ_Soul on
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Comments
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-us-election-2016-live-reactio
I'll say this, with all that was in her favor it takes courage to talk about how you ran one of the worse presidential campaigns in history.
The reporter quoted "I would rather have an in your face Republican than a two-faced Democrat".
Wow.
Hilliary lost election but won popular vote.
Common denominator???
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
hilliaryous
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
I wonder if Nate Silver feels like a heel this morning?
he is probably done... just like everyone at the DNC affiliated with the Clinton machine.
livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=446
1995- New Orleans, LA : New Orleans, LA
1996- Charleston, SC
1998- Atlanta, GA: Birmingham, AL: Greenville, SC: Knoxville, TN
2000- Atlanta, GA: New Orleans, LA: Memphis, TN: Nashville, TN
2003- Raleigh, NC: Charlotte, NC: Atlanta, GA
2004- Asheville, NC (hometown show)
2006- Cincinnati, OH
2008- Columbia, SC
2009- Chicago, IL x 2 / Ed Vedder- Atlanta, GA x 2
2010- Bristow, VA
2011- Alpine Valley, WI (PJ20) x 2 / Ed Vedder- Chicago, IL
2012- Atlanta, GA
2013- Charlotte, NC
2014- Cincinnati, OH
2015- New York, NY
2016- Greenville, SC: Hampton, VA:: Columbia, SC: Raleigh, NC : Lexington, KY: Philly, PA 2: (Wrigley) Chicago, IL x 2 (holy shit): Temple of the Dog- Philly, PA
2017- ED VED- Louisville, KY
2018- Chicago, IL x2, Boston, MA x2
2020- Nashville, TN
2022- Smashville
2023- Austin, TX x2
2024- Baltimore
BTW, there might be a lot of broke people and a few new rich people in BC right now. It turns out that this US election was the most betted-on event in our history, lol. Even more than the superbowl. And Trump winning had pretty high odds. Now I wish I'd thrown down a few bucks on him, lol.
I dunno, I think I figured it would be Trump for sure around 7pm Pacific. I watched a little longer after that and then turned it off in disgust. I woke up at 1am for some reason, and checked to see if maybe Clinton somehow eked out a win... obviously I had trouble getting back to sleep.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon