***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

Five questions: Making sense of Howard's new deal
There is plenty of info to come on the five-year, $125 million contract extension Ryan Howard agreed to earlier today. For all the nuts and bolts of the deal, see our previous post. In the meantime, we'll look at some FAQs concerning the deal.

This started as three questions, and will likely grow throughout the day.

1. What does this mean?

It means that the Phillies are planning on building around Howard, Roy Halladay and Chase Utley for the next four seasons. Those three players are the only ones on the roster signed through the 2013 season. Utley's contract expires after 2013. The Phillies have a club option on Halladay for 2014. Howard, obviously, is signed through 2016.

Here is the money the Phillies have allocated through the end of Howard's deal, according to Daily News records:

2012:$82.75 million to Halladay, Howard, Utley, Victorino, Blanton, Polanco, Ruiz (Lidge option; Hamels, Happ, Francisco arb eligible)
2013: $55.0 million to Halladay, Howard, Utley (Polanco, Ruiz club options; Happ, Francisco arb eligible)
2014: $45 million to Howard and Halladay (assuming option vests)
2015: $25 million to Howard
2016: $25 million to Howard

Jimmy Rollins is signed through 2011.


2. How does Howard's contract compare?

The market was set last year by the Yankees when they signed Mark Teixeira to an eight year, $180 million contract that runs from 2009-16. Like Teixeira's, Howard's contract runs through 2016. Like Teixeira, he will be 36 years old in the final guaranteed year of his deal. Howard's contract guarantees him $12.5 million more than Teixeira will earn over the last five years of his deal, from his 32nd birthday through his 36th.

One key difference is that Teixeira has a full no-trade clause. Howard has a limited no-trade clause (at this point, I'm not sure how limited), which for the Phillies could wind up being more valuable than $12.5 million.

On the other hand, Teixeira's deal was signed when he was on the open market. The Phillies weren't negotiating against anybody else with Howard's deal.

Teixeira deal
2009 (29): $20.0
2010 (30): $20.0
2011 (31): $22.5
2012 (32): $22.5
2013 (33): $22.5
2014 (34): $22.5
2015 (35): $22.5
2016 (36): $22.5

Howard deal
2012 (32): $20.0
2013 (33): $20.0
2014 (34): $25.0
2015 (35): $25.0
2016 (36): $25.0
2017 (37): $10.0 (guaranteed)/$23.0 (if option exercised)

3. How does the contract affect the Phillies ability to re-sign Jayson Werth?

Not as much as you might think. It might affect their willingness to give Werth a long-term deal at his market rate, but Howard's contract does not eliminate the possibility. The extension takes effect in 2012, when the Phillies now have $84.25 million guaranteed to Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz, along with a $1.5 million buyout to Brad Lidge if they don't pick up his $12.5 million option. This number does not include Cole Hamels, who will be eligible for arbitration after making $9.5 million in 2011. Hamels is eligible for free agency after 2012. It also doesn't include salaries for J.A. Happ and Ben Francisco, both of whom will be arbitration eligible.

So the Phillies still have plenty of payroll flexibility in 2012. The Howard deal does not affect their flexibility for next season, when they have $130.85 million guaranteed to 15 players.

The doubt about the Phillies' ability to sign Werth centers around next year, since they have just $9.15 million of available cash before they hit this year's Opening Day roster total of about $140 million, and 10 active roster vacancies to fill.

4. What was that anguished scream echoing across the Mississippi River I just heard?

That would be John Mozeliak, general manager of the Cardinals. Perhaps part of the Phillies' strategy was to either get Albert Pujols traded out of the National League or bankrupt St. Louis in the years to come. Regardless of what you think of the extension, the Phillies set an early market for future free agents like Pujols and Prince Fielder a year-and-a-half before they had to.

5. So why now?

It's going to be a big question posed to Ruben Amaro Jr. later on this evening. I'm not surprised that they decided to sign Howard now, but I would've thought that any deal would come only as a result of some obvious concessions on Howard's part. I thought there might be a chance that the two sides re-worked these next two seasons as well, giving the Phillies a better opportunity to sign a guy like Jayson Werth. Perhaps cutting Howard's salary a tad next season and then adding it on in the form of deferred money or some back-loaded years.

The Jeagler wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

phils win another series (4 of 5 for eagles fans that aren't counting)

all the new fans worried about madson are quiet

all the new fans worried about hamels are quiet

all the new fans worried about kendrick/moyer are quiet (no one mentions werth's shitty baserunning, but they all want to give him jason bay money. idiots)

all is good...can't wait to hear next week's complaint

haha...last week you said kendrick sucked and moyer was "aids." one start changes your perception of them? c'mon man

national sales meeting over...I'm back.

for the record the previous post was made during draft night...tequila shots involved. everything off the record (especially the stuff that doesn't make sense, which I'm sure there is lots of)

moyer is the epitome of AIDS.

Cliffy6745 wrote:

The Jeagler wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

All locked up - sweet.

THIS IS A GREAT DAY GENTLEMEN!

Really? You think its a good idea to lock up a slugging first baseman a year before he is to become a free agent for what is going to be the highest contract in the league in terms of AAV? Especially in this market with the contract taking him to 37. Don't get me wrong he is an outstanding player, but this contract is absurd.

I agree 100%. I absoultey hate this contract. type of deal that sends teams into rebuilding mode. Hate it, hate it, hate it

The Jeagler wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

The Jeagler wrote:

lot of money---yes. but i am just thrilled we were able to keep him here. he's a better all around player today than he was 3 years ago. his defense is much, much improved. he's lost a lot of weight and is in better all around shape and is right in the prime of his career. i love it.

I hear you, he is a great player, that is just too much for too long in my opinion. There is no need to extend him a year and a half early for that money or time, its just not good business.

we're so used to losing our stars in this city though. i think its great that he might be able to spend his entire career in philly.

I could care less about stars playing here. I want the phils to win. this deal restricts them from winning once it kicks in.

majored in econ...you don't make deals that result in diminishing returns, which this contract surely will. dumb, dumb, dumb.

everyone loves amaro because he's winning with what gillick built. his deals are questionable at best.

halladay deal = great
ibanez deal = bad
polanco deal = TBD (most think he overpaid in years and money)
blanton = same as polanco
Lidge = bad
howard = epitome of an overpay. albatross best describes it
victorino = TBD

don't mean to sound like debbie downer, but he has wasted a lot of money that could have been invested more responsibly (cliff lee and/or jayson werth).

I'm not the biggest werth fan (I think he makes a lot of mental errors on bases and in field)...but I'd rather see werth get overpaid than howard. 1B and closer are the 2 positions I'd never overpay for.

Edit: How can you say signing a player to the biggest deal in baseball (until Pujols gets paid) is a great deal? I get where Jeags is coming from, but not this.[/quote]
23 million a year is even cheaper,and aroid signed a bigger deal before even though he optioned out and resigned.And boston would have thrown all sorts of money at Howard if he became a free agent. We locked up a top 5 player at a good price,wait until fielder and pujulos hit free agency.[/quote]

Depends how you look at it. First of all I hate the Arod deal. Second of all, Howard will be getting paid more than Arod over the same time period. $25 mil a year in the current market at age 35-37 is not a good price. Its just not. Third, there was no reason to lock him up to this deal a year and a half early, he would have signed it the second they put the contract in front of him.

Edit: This deal really bumps Amaro down on that list we discussed. Yes, it is great to have Ryan Howard around long term, but this is an awful awful deal and is goingto hurt the Phillies down the road.[/quote]


off topic, but Cliffy that SI cover this week is the gayest thing I've ever seen. It's even worse than the smily faces Jeags uses in his posts.

My theory -- I think they are all looking at A-Rod naked. Everyone is looking and having fun except Jeter. I can hear him mumbling 'fuck that dude for making me pose for this' under his breath. Jeter is awesome. A-Rod is such a turd. I could never root for him...he is such a squid.

Regardless, it's the gayest SI cover I've ever seen. If I saw Utley posing like posada, rivera, or pettite I would hate him and myself and probably the phillies. And it's impossible for me to hate utley...or even be upset at him. he's my favorite philly athlete of all time (dawk and lindros get honorable mention, but it's not really close)

The Fixer wrote:

The Jeagler wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

I hear you, he is a great player, that is just too much for too long in my opinion. There is no need to extend him a year and a half early for that money or time, its just not good business.

we're so used to losing our stars in this city though. i think its great that he might be able to spend his entire career in philly.

I could care less about stars playing here. I want the phils to win. this deal restricts them from winning once it kicks in.

majored in econ...you don't make deals that result in diminishing returns, which this contract surely will. dumb, dumb, dumb.

everyone loves amaro because he's winning with what gillick built. his deals are questionable at best.

halladay deal = great
ibanez deal = bad
polanco deal = TBD (most think he overpaid in years and money)
blanton = same as polanco
Lidge = bad
howard = epitome of an overpay. albatross best describes it
victorino = TBD

don't mean to sound like debbie downer, but he has wasted a lot of money that could have been invested more responsibly (cliff lee and/or jayson werth).

I'm not the biggest werth fan (I think he makes a lot of mental errors on bases and in field)...but I'd rather see werth get overpaid than howard. 1B and closer are the 2 positions I'd never overpay for.

blanton turned out to be bad too. that money could have gone to lee this year.
plus you forgot about moyer. terrible signing.

i agree with you on amaro. and i agree that they overpaid on howard. i'm just glad he's locked up for so long.

The Fixer wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Posted this over in the Yankees and Boston threads but it is relevant to the Phillies as well so I figured I would post it here as well since its really interesting.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/20 ... ot-really/

Of the top 8 teams in terms of revenue, the Yanks are last in terms of percentage spent on payroll. Phillies are 3rd to Boston and Detroit. Kind of makes me think a little differently about the Lee trade. If they had kept him the percentage would go from 60.9% to almost 65% and just behind Detroit.

2 of those teams have a TV station that generates revenue.

come on dude...yanks and last in payroll should never be used in same sentence again. you know this...just stop

I agree, was not really trying to say anything about the Yankees, that should honestly be everyone but the yankees because their revenue is almost double anyone else. Was more just pointing out the percentage the phillies spend.

booomm11 wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

booomm11 wrote:

oh shit.. bullpen gets it done

Your avatar, did you take that picture? Have you seen the stadium already? I saw some pictures and it looks really really small but very nice.

nah, i got that picture from the Union website. think the stadium holds around 18,500. Can't wait till it opens up. Went to the match at the Linc and that place was rockin!

http://philadelphiaunion.com/Content3.aspx?cid=4.2

Yeah man, I am looking forward to heading down there. Should be awesome. Looks like they are building a great facility.

I heard the game at the Linc was a great time. I was busy that day but plan on goign on the 15th (i think thats the date).

[/quote]Yeah man, I am looking forward to heading down there. Should be awesome. Looks like they are building a great facility.

I heard the game at the Linc was a great time. I was busy that day but plan on goign on the 15th (i think thats the date).[/quote]

Cliff, that Le Toux free kick around the 80th min was incredible(almost like Howard hitting a go ahead homer in the 9th, ALMOST). the only bummer was they stopped selling beers in the 47th min :( hope the new park has a different policy...

and your right: Union vs FC Dallas May 15th


FUCK THE METS

god, I hate this contract. there's a telling graph that didn't paste. here's the link http://crashburnalley.com/2010/04/26/ho ... ough-2016/


Howard Gets Extension Through 2016
by Bill Baer on April 26th, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 28 Comments »
EDIT: Check out what Matt Swartz has to say about the extension at Baseball Prospectus. He makes a lot of good points. Swartz specifically adjusts for inflation, something I was too lazy to do in the analysis below.

Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly has the scoop. Five years, $125 million extension for Ryan Howard and it kicks in after the 2011 season.

From 2005-09, Howard has contributed 21.6 WAR, an average of 4.3 per season. In that span of time, he has been paid $26.6 million and provided an overall value (production minus salary) of $66.6 million. Seems like a great deal, right?

The going rate for a win in 2010 is about $5 million, which means that — assuming that figure stays static — in 2011 and ‘12, Howard will be paid as a 4-win player. From 2013-16, he will be paid as a 5-win player. Using the ten-year forecast from Baseball Prospectus, Howard will be worth 3.3 wins (WARP3) in 2011 and decline gradually.

Over the length of the extension, Howard is projected to accrue 11.7 WARP3, an average of under 2 per season. Even if we make the extremely generous and unrealistic assumption that the value of a win is $5 million not just in 2010, but throughout the length of the contract (it won’t — it will rise most likely), Howard still provides an increasingly negative value to the Phillies. $84.5 million specifically from 2012-17. In chart form:



*Note: 2010-17 numbers are projected and assume a static $/win of $5 million (because it is impossible to know exactly what the going rate will be). Howard’s value is likely to be much worse than indicated above. Additionally, the 2017 season is a club option with a $10 million buy-out.

This extension pushes the Phillies’ guaranteed payroll in 2012 to about $87 million, tied up to just eight players including Howard: Roy Halladay ($20 million), Chase Utley ($15.3M), Joe Blanton ($10.5M), Shane Victorino ($9.4M), Placido Polanco ($6.4M), Carlos Ruiz ($3.7M), and Brad Lidge ($1.5M). There may be six arbitration-eligible players as well in Cole Hamels (fourth year), Kyle Kendrick (second), Ben Francisco (second), Scott Mathieson (second), J.A. Happ (first), and Mike Zagurski (first). In short, the Phillies will be paying a lot of money to just a few players, almost all of them past their prime. Furthermore, the team will have very little flexibility as few teams will want to take on such expensive contracts.

Thinking more short-term, Howard’s $20 million salary from 2011-13 may prevent the Phillies from having the financial flexibility to sign right fielder Jayson Werth to an extension, which means that he will most likely become a free agent after this season. You may recall that two months ago, I suggested the Phillies should think about trading Howard to give themselves the ability to extend Werth. Obviously, GM Ruben Amaro disagreed and apparently has tremendous faith in Domonic Brown to transition seamlessly to the Majors. The 2011 team will look a lot like this year’s team, only with Dom in right instead of Werth.

There are a couple positives with the deal. The first, obviously, is that the Phillies will not have to look for a first baseman for a long, long time — barring injury. It is unfortunate, though, that the Phillies have locked up such security at the least important position on the baseball diamond in the National League. Additionally, the Phillies may end up saving themselves several million dollars every year theoretically as the post-2011 free agent market may include Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder and both may exceed Howard’s average annual value of $25 million per season. Both players are likely to be signed to extensions (in Fielder’s case, perhaps with a new team) beforehand.

Most Phillies fans will love the extension, as it keeps a fan favorite in town for a long time. Stat-savvy fans immediately dislike the deal. Most Phillies fans will come to loathe the deal in several years when the Phillies are hamstrung by Howard’s relatively large salary and declining production.

Already, Howard has shown signs of decline as his walk rate has declined every year since 2007 and sits at a paltry 3.6% thus far in 2010. His BABIP has been lower as more and more teams have employed an infield shift against him. Opposing teams have also been bringing in more left-handed relievers to face Howard and his production against them has swiftly dropped. His strikeout rate has declined gradually but so has his isolated power. Using FanGraphs’ pitch type linear weights, Howard’s production against the fastball has dropped every year since 2006. He has swung at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone every year since he came into the Majors. Finally, his whiff rate (swinging strike percentage) has increased every year since 2006.

This will be a fun ride for two, maybe even three more years, but it will quickly become tumultuous.