2024 US Election - Predictions

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  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,552
    I just shake my head in disbelief how so many people can be so fucking stupid. Wow. Cheers from Canada. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,954
    tbergs said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 

    Times has GA and NC as very likely R right now. That makes PA a must win for Dems.

    and Kormacki is going on and on county by county how trump is hitting his numbers in PA. Overall odds have it at 65% trump now.
    Yeah the county by county break down for the entire country are all plus R between 5 - 10 points. It's crazy to see the maps broken down and the shift to R. When Trump tanks the economy, gives Ukraine to Russia, let's Israel annex the west bank and ends Obamacare, these people still won't care. Watch the world burn.

    We think of the great stock market, big economy and big cities, yet we are run by rural America that lives in 1970s technology. It’s brutal and as you say, can set us back in many ways.
  • Poncier
    Poncier Posts: 17,894
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 
    Yeah, I think Wisc. is the final nail. Just like 2016.
    Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
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  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
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  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,664
    MayDay10 said:
    brianlux said:
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    Best come to terms with it 

    Trump has won this thing, and it isn't going to end up particularly close

    There's no coming to terms with this for me.  If Trump wins, I'm done with caring about the state of the world.  It will be over for me.  I'm not doing four more years of this. 
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,954
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.

    Senate is off limits also - losing WV seat and OH. These seats may be solid R for a long time as will the senate. The only reason dems had senate was three seats in solid R states, which likely will not happen for a while
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,954
    brianlux said:
    MayDay10 said:
    brianlux said:
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    Best come to terms with it 

    Trump has won this thing, and it isn't going to end up particularly close

    There's no coming to terms with this for me.  If Trump wins, I'm done with caring about the state of the world.  It will be over for me.  I'm not doing four more years of this. 

    Hang in there man. We need to think of the things we love, and let the Rs do whatever they need to do. It was obvious to me Americans don’t care for the climate months ago, it just hurts to see the polls were likely correct. 
  • droptheleash9
    droptheleash9 Posts: 1,468
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."
  • mace1229
    mace1229 Posts: 9,836
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,552
    "This is it for the dem party". hahaha. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,426
    droptheleash9 said:
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."
    I'd love to share that sentiment if the long term impact of a far right SCOTUS wasn't hanging in the balance. McConnell and Trump will have given us the majority of justices by gaming the system. The checks and balances aren't going to hold.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • pjhawks
    pjhawks Posts: 12,935
    droptheleash9 said:
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."
    How did it work out during Covid? How did it work out on Jan 6th?  With the SCOTUS immunity decision they’ve nice given an insane narcissist to do whatever the fuck he wants.  Sorry Trump winning is a disaster on so many levels 
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,954
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.

    Because Dems believe 47 will be able to make structural changes to the way government operates. He has a four year head start and his govt will be loyal to him. No more McMasters or Kelly

     The USSC has already done plenty in that regard. With OH and WV senate seats now R, possibly for a long time the senate looks to be out of reach. The Court will be Republican now for the rest of our lives (those of us near Eddies age)
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,426
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
    We have no idea what Trump will do. People underestimate him because he says so much stupid shit, but to even opine about the kind of things he wants to do is dangerous. You're giving someone the benefit of the doubt who has repeatedly shown he doesn't deserve it.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,391
    tbergs said:
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
    We have no idea what Trump will do. People underestimate him because he says so much stupid shit, but to even opine about the kind of things he wants to do is dangerous. You're giving someone the benefit of the doubt who has repeatedly shown he doesn't deserve it.
    Maybe they’re ok with it? Like totally ok with it?
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  • mace1229
    mace1229 Posts: 9,836
    tbergs said:
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
    We have no idea what Trump will do. People underestimate him because he says so much stupid shit, but to even opine about the kind of things he wants to do is dangerous. You're giving someone the benefit of the doubt who has repeatedly shown he doesn't deserve it.
    One of the things I’m certain of is in 4 years, he will be out of office (assuming he even wins) and there will be another election where the people decide who is president .
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,664
    droptheleash9 said:
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."

    Easy words... unless you've been fighting this shit for 50 years.  Fuck it.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,426
    One thing to chuckle about right now is looking at the vote totals here in MN and seeing RFK with 11k votes 🤪 
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,378
    I thought if Kamala won it was going to be an ass whopping. I thought if dickface won it would be the slimmest of margins. Seems I was entirely wrong. Bigly
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • pjhawks
    pjhawks Posts: 12,935
    How the fuck is he out performing what he did in 2020?  Economy, sexism, racism?  Combo of all 3?  Hard to believe this horrible piece of shit is gonna win again. I will never understand the appeal of such a terrible human 

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