2024 US Election - Predictions

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Comments

  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,425
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    That's because of her gender. She automatically loses votes Biden didn't have to worry about. Patriarchy is still ingrained in a lot of this country.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,884
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    I mean I get the analogy, but she still only lost by a few thousand votes in a few states.  We are talking about fractions of a percentage.  And then Biden flipped that fraction to the other side.  So is VA a bellweather?  I don't know.  I guess we shall see.  
  • mcgruff10
    mcgruff10 New Jersey Posts: 29,130
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    That's because of her gender. She automatically loses votes Biden didn't have to worry about. Patriarchy is still ingrained in a lot of this country.
    Totally agree.  Gender could be the biggest factor in this race.  Hopefully this isn’t 2016 all over again.   
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,884
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    No one seems to recall the Penn vote is what got MAGA's all up in arms about "the steal". Trump blathered on and on about how it was impossible for him to be so far ahead at 9pm then later on in the night he was obliterated. 
    Right because of the way the mail in votes flowed.  But this time, R's voted more in mail-in.  So that actually makes me wonder if the assumptions across the board are correct.  Maybe Harris will have a lead going into the mail in, instead of being behind.  And is that good or bad?  That's the question.  
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,537
    has Trump claimed victory yet? LOL
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,378
    mcgruff10 said:
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    That's because of her gender. She automatically loses votes Biden didn't have to worry about. Patriarchy is still ingrained in a lot of this country.
    Totally agree.  Gender could be the biggest factor in this race.  Hopefully this isn’t 2016 all over again.   
    I'm afraid it is brother. Yikes! 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,856
    Pretty much going how I thought.


  • pjhawks
    pjhawks Posts: 12,934
    this feels like 2016.  wtf is wrong with this country?  
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,378
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    has Trump claimed victory yet? LOL
    Some time back in April I think.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,217
    as of 10 pm in 2020 trump had won the same states he has now and still did not win. it isn't over yet.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,664
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,856
    We are all going to be speaking German by the morning
  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,856
    brianlux said:
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    Best come to terms with it 

    Trump has won this thing, and it isn't going to end up particularly close
  • Poncier
    Poncier Posts: 17,894
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • JesseMcK
    JesseMcK Maine Posts: 67
    Yeah - this definitely feels like 2016, where you watch one avenue get closed off, then turn your attention to another only to watch that slowly erode too.

    This country likes Trump.
    https://www.jessemckinnell.com/
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,425
    JesseMcK said:
    Yeah - this definitely feels like 2016, where you watch one avenue get closed off, then turn your attention to another only to watch that slowly erode too.

    This country likes Trump.
    Mostly the same states that liked Jim Crow and slavery. They've silently passed down their beliefs for decades waiting for the right candidate to come forward again and Trump is that person.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,425
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,948
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 

    Times has GA and NC as very likely R right now. That makes PA a must win for Dems.

    and Kormacki is going on and on county by county how trump is hitting his numbers in PA. Overall odds have it at 65% trump now.
  • PJ_Soul
    PJ_Soul Vancouver, BC Posts: 50,705
    I can't watch. I tried for 2 minutes and then started watching Survivor on my PVR. Survivor votes are ones I can handle, lol.
    With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,425
    Lerxst1992 said:
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 

    Times has GA and NC as very likely R right now. That makes PA a must win for Dems.

    and Kormacki is going on and on county by county how trump is hitting his numbers in PA. Overall odds have it at 65% trump now.
    Yeah the county by county break down for the entire country are all plus R between 5 - 10 points. It's crazy to see the maps broken down and the shift to R. When Trump tanks the economy, gives Ukraine to Russia, let's Israel annex the west bank and ends Obamacare, these people still won't care. Watch the world burn.
    It's a hopeless situation...

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