2024 US Election - Predictions

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  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,497
    edited November 2024
    OnWis97 said:
    Indifference said:
    Trump 297-241
    That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

    I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.
    Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

    Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

    But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,497
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know
    I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

    Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 
    Aren't the polls to damn close for it to be a blowout?


    ... at the same time I have put money down on it being a blowout. 
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    edited November 2024
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Indifference said:
    Trump 297-241
    That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

    I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.
    back then she had not been veep for 4 years, so that point is absolutely moot today.
    I don't agree. There was no primary. I guess her poor showing in the primary is a bit of an extra icing on the cake but Biden's late drop out just sort of had the party shrugging and going "the VP I guess." 

    Obviously, she'd have drawn more than a few percent under my preferred scenario (i.e., 2024 primaries). She may have even won. But we'll never know and the voters (Registered Dem voters) never had a say. Then again, they kinda didn't in 2016, either.

    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Indifference said:
    Trump 297-241
    That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

    I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.
    Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

    Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

    But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH
    Hard to say how impactful it is. It's true that a lot of people who talk about it are people that wouldn't vote for a Dem under any circumstances. All this talk is just about either getting people off the couch on election day or grabbing the (unbelievably to this point) undecided voters.

    The impact of that is probably greater than zero but not as great as Hillary's ignoring Wisconsin eight years ago.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know
    I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

    Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 
    Who is FS?
    www.myspace.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    edited November 2024
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know
    I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

    Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 
    Aren't the polls to damn close for it to be a blowout?


    ... at the same time I have put money down on it being a blowout. 
    The electoral college. So you can every state by .05% and still win a landslide. 

    Getting to 300 nowadays is a pretty big victory. 
    www.myspace.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598


    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Indifference said:
    Trump 297-241
    That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

    I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.
    Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

    Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

    But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH
    Hard to say how impactful it is. It's true that a lot of people who talk about it are people that wouldn't vote for a Dem under any circumstances. All this talk is just about either getting people off the couch on election day or grabbing the (unbelievably to this point) undecided voters.

    The impact of that is probably greater than zero but not as great as Hillary's ignoring Wisconsin eight years ago.
    I do not think this will play a factor at all. 
    www.myspace.com
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,378
    The Juggler said:
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know
    I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

    Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 
    Who is FS?
    Fuck Stick
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    Jon Ralston is predicting Harris takes Nevada. That would be huge. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,270
    The Juggler said:
    Jon Ralston is predicting Harris takes Nevada. That would be huge. 
    lol I was just reading that...
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,497
    What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,270
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    I wonder about the demographic of these betting places...seems to me to be mostly young white men
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,497
    Gern Blansten said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    I wonder about the demographic of these betting places...seems to me to be mostly young white men
    Yeah. I tried to will it into me exploiting that and CASHING OUT. We'll see.
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    I would not put much stock in any of the betting markets
    www.myspace.com
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    There's something unsavory about gambling on elections. Then again, there's something unsavory about gambling in general.
    (Not that I'm against it but it's always funny to see someone lose their mind because a late TD caused a team to win by 19 instead of 26.)
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,497
    edited November 2024
    OnWis97 said:
    There's something unsavory about gambling on elections. Then again, there's something unsavory about gambling in general.
    (Not that I'm against it but it's always funny to see someone lose their mind because a late TD caused a team to win by 19 instead of 26.)
    Last time I bet on anything... was that Carrie Fisher would be the last one shown at the Academy Awards In Memorial-montage.

    I think I lost on some of the awards categories though that Oscar year. But still made some money because of Fisher (like 40 bucks.. haha)

    Only time I ever bet on anything. Until now. 
    Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    OnWis97 said:
    There's something unsavory about gambling on elections. Then again, there's something unsavory about gambling in general.
    (Not that I'm against it but it's always funny to see someone lose their mind because a late TD caused a team to win by 19 instead of 26.)
    Last time I bet on anything... was that Carrie Fisher would be the last one shown at the Academy Awards In Memorial-montage.

    I think I lost on some of the awards categories though that Oscar year. But still made some money because of Fisher (like 40 bucks.. haha)
    Wow. You truly can bet on anything.

    My favorite is the Super Bowl coin flip. Which team wins the flip. Heads or tails. Probably weather the person calls heads or tails.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • JesseMcK
    JesseMcK Maine Posts: 67
    My guess is:
    - The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
    - The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too
    https://www.jessemckinnell.com/
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    JesseMcK said:
    My guess is:
    - The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
    - The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too
    That would be awesome. Not sure how he impacts the presidential race there. He might not hurt Trump, but he sure as hell doesn't help.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,270
    JesseMcK said:
    My guess is:
    - The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
    - The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too
    yeah if Harris is even close to trump in IA that will be very interesting
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    edited November 2024
    Gern Blansten said:
    JesseMcK said:
    My guess is:
    - The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
    - The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too
    yeah if Harris is even close to trump in IA that will be very interesting
    I agree with all of this.


    www.myspace.com

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