Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues

GlowGirl said:

darwinstheory said:

SHZA said:

Edved007 said:

I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.

I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows.  I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show.  That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint. 

The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small. 

This exactly. The question of whether the system is fair or another system is better is beside the point of the OP's premise that the bits of data that we're seeing don't pass the smell test. Those saying "that's just how statistics work" don't have enough data to say that the results we're seeing are consistent with the results that should be expected with a random draw. And given TM's track record with these lotteries--two redraws last year due to mistakes, for example--I don't understand why some are quick to write off the possibility that these draws were not executed in a truly random fashion. 

Not sour grapes -- I wasn't expecting anything great from the lottery and almost didn't enter at all.  

This ^ for SHZA!  Simply put, something went wrong with the random draw. 

Since I don't have hard data, I will suggest something that may have happened only based on the results I have seen here and heard through friends - so it may be off base, but thought it was worth a mention. Do any of you think that they drew for cities and not specific shows. So, if a person put in for two shows and they got whatever they got for the first show, they were also automatically given that for the second show. And if the first show was not won at all, then you were also not given the second show? But if you only put in for the second show, then you were in the draw for that show. From some of the winning patterns here, it almost seems like that. The two shows I got were both single night shows (Baltimore and MSG). But for the shows I put in with two nights - I was shut out of both nights completely. Again, just trying to figure out how some people got GA for both shows in multiple cities. I know it is possible, but seems so unlikely.

That's almost exactly what I think happened. There have been so few reports of same city splits (Seats on night and GA the other) that there was likely a selection difference of some sort from the majority. I could see the results trickling out today being of a more random nature as the issue has likely been identified and possibly corrected. 

mookieblalock said:

You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not. 

End of story. 

This. If it fits the conspiracy narrative it must be true!

I do agree that getting multiple GAs in the same city is pretty rare. Odds wise it probably shouldn't happen. 

However, basing it off a few people on a message board doesn't make it true. A lot of members, and I'd bet the majority don't come here. We have no idea how it went for them. 

Get_Right said:

The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.

Your point is exactly right.  The only thing that throws off the fairness model somewhat and could be tweaked, is they expressly said if you win one MSG, you can't win the other, so they essentially could tweak their algorithm to at minimum eliminate getting two GA for shows in the same city, frankly if they wanted to they could cap GA allotment, to a max of 50% of the shows you put in for and then do the random selections process and randomize the shows too.

I had a really great run in 2020/22 and 2023, though one of my two GA shows was cancelled, but I am not really a GA or the world collapses guy anyhow, so right now it appears I went 3 for 6.5 (I did the MSG request so one was a guaranteed loss that I why I am putting the half) assuming that is going to hold an that as today rolls on the sorry emails get issued I can't complain and will try to add a couple of the shows along the way via F2F.

But overall, you are correct, and I still suspect people are going after all Saturday Shows and things of that nature with just GA/P1 as their only selection, assuming they are actually doing it right.  I suspect a lot of people kept redoing their submissions and fumbled along the way.

PB11041 said:

Get_Right said:

The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.

Your point is exactly right.  The only thing that throws off the fairness model somewhat and could be tweaked, is they expressly said if you win one MSG, you can't win the other, so they essentially could tweak their algorithm to at minimum eliminate getting two GA for shows in the same city, frankly if they wanted to they could cap GA allotment, to a max of 50% of the shows you put in for and then do the random selections process and randomize the shows too.

I had a really great run in 2020/22 and 2023, though one of my two GA shows was cancelled, but I am not really a GA or the world collapses guy anyhow, so right now it appears I went 3 for 6.5 (I did the MSG request so one was a guaranteed loss that I why I am putting the half) assuming that is going to hold an that as today rolls on the sorry emails get issued I can't complain and will try to add a couple of the shows along the way via F2F.

But overall, you are correct, and I still suspect people are going after all Saturday Shows and things of that nature with just GA/P1 as their only selection, assuming they are actually doing it right.  I suspect a lot of people kept redoing their submissions and fumbled along the way.

This was my point... if they could cap MSG at one draw per member, they could have done the same for GA.

If they DGAF then why limit MSG at 1 show / person?

Again... sour grapes I know, but it doesn't make a f ton of sense. 

Eddieredder said:

mookieblalock said:

You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not. 

End of story. 

This. If it fits the conspiracy narrative it must be true!

I do agree that getting multiple GAs in the same city is pretty rare. Odds wise it probably shouldn't happen. 

However, basing it off a few people on a message board doesn't make it true. A lot of members, and I'd bet the majority don't come here. We have no idea how it went for them. 

Exactly this. There are 101 members online right now. The "Official Results" thread has 2600 replies, but nowhere close to 2600 results. Even counting posts on Facebook, this is a small fraction of the results. There *may* be something else at play, but to look at this sample of results and cry, "Foul!" is also a bit ludicrous. Unfortunately, we'll probably never know the actual numbers or methodology.

That said, is this a "good" system? I don't think so. Prioritizing and show limits (I like 4, but that's also because I can't see myself laying out for more than 4 shows in one lottery) would go a long way, but no one involved in making those decisions seems to care enough to make that change.

As for fairness, well, that's always a matter of perspective, isn't it?

Eddieredder said:

mookieblalock said:

You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not. 

End of story. 

This. If it fits the conspiracy narrative it must be true!

I do agree that getting multiple GAs in the same city is pretty rare. Odds wise it probably shouldn't happen. 

However, basing it off a few people on a message board doesn't make it true. A lot of members, and I'd bet the majority don't come here. We have no idea how it went for them. 

Saying it's only a few people on a message board also doesn't make it untrue. Limited data is inherently cherry-picked. We can only draw inferences based on the limited number of people who have announced their results. Regardless, the suspicions are there and are prevalent enough that they can't just be waved away by saying that they haven't been proven as true. If 10c/TM shed some light on the process, those suspicions could either be disproven or confirmed. But I'm not holding my breath.  

Last year was a mess. No doubt about it. 

Eddieredder said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Eddieredder said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Eddieredder said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not. 

End of story. 

I'm not cherry picking, I'm pointing out how this new system is unfair

Is it really unfair? Or is it unfair because it didn't work for you. Saying it multiple times loudly doesn't make it so

Yes I stand by the fact that this system allows for unfair outcomes 

How many times have you been shutout in your lifetime?

Multiple, but I knew based on my selections that was a likely outcome.

Let me guess, you hit a bunch of shows this drawing and therefore love this system? 

I was lucky this time. And last time. Doesn't change the fact that I go in knowing its a lottery. I've also been shut out multiple times. Therefore I go in with those expectations. And for those times that i did lose? I never cried or claimed conspiracy.  

I didn't cry conspiracy. I'm just stating this version of the lottery is bad

Based on the general results it seems like, yes, there was some kind of glitch. I say this due to the number of multiple show multiple GA winners vs. people who got shut out completely. That really should not happen statistically. Will it be significant enough for 10 Club to do anything about it? That remains to be seen. They acknowledged the problems much earlier last time and did their best to remedy where possible, but I think the problem in this draw is more subtle and for those of us who got no shows, we may just need to move on to TM.

PJNB said:

Ledbetterdays said:

Based on the general results it seems like, yes, there was some kind of glitch. I say this due to the number of multiple show multiple GA winners vs. people who got shut out completely. That really should not happen statistically. Will it be significant enough for 10 Club to do anything about it? That remains to be seen. They acknowledged the problems much earlier last time and did their best to remedy where possible, but I think the problem in this draw is more subtle and for those of us who got no shows, we may just need to move on to TM.

With priority and seniority issues last year it was very obvious something was wrong. Something like this will be impossible to prove one way or another unless TM just comes out and says whoopsie. It is not like they will come out and show proof how their system works properly. 

And imagine the uproar from people who thought they had GA for the whole tour only to have it snatched away. Which I don't think would be right either . . .