The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.
How is a system where one person wins GA to the same 4 shows I put in for and I get nothing not unfair?
Again; this goes back to not understanding basic statistics. Also, there weren’t a majority of people winning 4 GA shows. Some did. Most did not. Some got shut out completely, most did not get shut out completely. It’s really that simple.
I understand basic statistics, trust me. Applied math major here. My point is they shouldn't have a system that allows these types of outcomes.
If you’re an applied math major, then you’re intelligent enough to see that what I am saying is factually accurate and you are complaining just to complain because it didn’t work out for you. I am sincerely sorry for your disappointment. I’ve been there as have many others over the years. There is never going to be a perfect system. People who didn’t get tickets they wanted will complain after every sale until the end of the bands touring days.
I didn't complain other years I got shut out, I understood the method and the probability of my choices. I agree what you are saying is factually accurate. I'm just saying a system that allows someone to get 9 of 10 shows while another goes 0-4 (with the person who went 9/10 getting all 4 shows the person who went 0/4 put in for) is a bad system
I agree with you here. You aren't debating the facts, just the system itself. The lottery had been for a long time based on prefferrences. And in theory, you were nearly guaranteed your first and second choice (unless you pocked MSG). For some reason that system didn't work as smoothly as predicted. It could have been glitches, not set up properly, or just people not understanding and following directions when they made their selection. I've never been convinced one way or another what the problem was, and never underestimate human stupidity and ability to follow basic directions.
But that does seem the most fair. Everyone who put in Vegas as their first or second pick should get it before someone who selected it as their 3rd or 4th. Or, if we don't want to go back to preferences, when you "win" tickets to one show and the system moves onto the next show, your name can't be pulled until everyone without tickets to another show got selected first. There are many ways to spread the ticket love around. Maybe they just went with the simplest format. But the original goal as explained by the process several years ago was to spread the tickets around to as many different fans, and not wind up with someone with tickets to 10 shows and others with 0. I personally have never been shut out, but never put in for more than 2 shows. Except for 2014 when I selected Brooklyn as my only show, and was not surprised I didn't get it.
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
I'm not cherry picking, I'm pointing out how this new system is unfair
Ever since the 10c did away with the postcard system, every method they have utilized to sell tickets has been deemed “unfair” by people on the boards. And it will never change. Ever.
Listen I understood the priority system and how to use it. If I selected a high demand show as my top priority and didnt win, that was on me. I could almost guarantee a win or 2 if I set my priorities right. This complete randomness is asinine.
I think the system overall is fine, but agree with you on having priorities. They should definitely go back to that which seemed to work better for most
I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
There are also an inordinate amount of people who got shut out for both nights in one city. So, if they put in for “GA or Reserved” but didn’t get GA… I don’t think they were added back into the draw for reserved seats for either night. People who selected “Reserved” in addition to “GA and Reserved” (whether P1 or P2) were probably okay. But those who thought they would be okay with just selecting “GA and Reserved” were not included in the general seated draw, therefore not getting either night.
Thoughts?
If said person only selected "GA or Reserved", that's on them. It was pretty clear all should be selected for best chance
I think the point that some people are saying is that the system SHOULDN’T be random. Rather, there should be an algorithm that creates a more even distribution of tickets among entrants.
Basically, what I think the argument boils down to is what is most fair? Random lotteries or everyone gets something but likely not everything? I can honestly see an argument for both.
you couldn't swing if you were hangin' from a palm tree in a hurricane
The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.
How is a system where one person wins GA to the same 4 shows I put in for and I get nothing not unfair?
Seems like every system has been like this though. The old "Log on at 10am to reserve your seats" method led to hours of clicking f12 just to be shutout. People in that method used to end up with GA to a bunch of shows too while others got nothing except added frustration as you sat at your computer for 2 hours hoping you got lucky.
At least with this system you have the same hypothetical chance but can set it and forget it.
2 hours? Those are rookie numbers, gotta pump those numbers up LOL. Anything that does not require 8 hours of F5ing is cool with me. I hate when I'm shut out of 10C seats, but then there is public sale and fan to fan. I get my F5 time in that way.
I was trying not to be too hard on them, 8 hours sounds accurate! The point is no system will ever be perfect. Priority is a good way to go, but even that one ended with people complaining that they only put in for 1 or 2 shows as their top priorities and got nothing.
I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
EXACTLY! The frequency with which this happened for all double show cities is......next to impossible. I firmly believe something went wrong.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
EXACTLY! The frequency with which this happened for all double show cities is......next to impossible. I firmly believe something went wrong.
It was run by TM so we know something went wrong for sure
I know there’s been discussion in a lot of the ticket threads about this, so I thought I would just start a thread. (Sorry if one already exists!) I think Ticketmaster may have messed up the draw again. If someone put in for GA in a city with two shows, it seems like they automatically got GA for both nights. I cannot find one single person who put in for “GA or Reserved” for both nights, but only got GA for one night. I also think when some people were selected for GA it was potentially applied to multiple cities. Having such a high number of people getting GA for 6, 7 8… and even 9 shows is unheard of.
There are also an inordinate amount of people who got shut out for both nights in one city. So, if they put in for “GA or Reserved” but didn’t get GA… I don’t think they were added back into the draw for reserved seats for either night. People who selected “Reserved” in addition to “GA and Reserved” (whether P1 or P2) were probably okay. But those who thought they would be okay with just selecting “GA and Reserved” were not included in the general seated draw, therefore not getting either night.
I don’t think this applies to MSG, as you couldn’t win both nights. I also don’t think it applies to Vancouver BC, which I think was done by Ticketmaster Canada (who may have done the draw correctly).
Thoughts?
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
COULD this happen through statistical odds? Yeah, it could. Likely? No. Likely to be repeated many times? Not at all.
Actual random based on Likely quantity of GA tickets to requests: LA 1 - P1 Reserved LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 2 - GA
how do you explain those that put in for 2 shows in the same city and only got selected for one show?
I know there’s been discussion in a lot of the ticket threads about this, so I thought I would just start a thread. (Sorry if one already exists!) I think Ticketmaster may have messed up the draw again. If someone put in for GA in a city with two shows, it seems like they automatically got GA for both nights. I cannot find one single person who put in for “GA or Reserved” for both nights, but only got GA for one night. I also think when some people were selected for GA it was potentially applied to multiple cities. Having such a high number of people getting GA for 6, 7 8… and even 9 shows is unheard of.
There are also an inordinate amount of people who got shut out for both nights in one city. So, if they put in for “GA or Reserved” but didn’t get GA… I don’t think they were added back into the draw for reserved seats for either night. People who selected “Reserved” in addition to “GA and Reserved” (whether P1 or P2) were probably okay. But those who thought they would be okay with just selecting “GA and Reserved” were not included in the general seated draw, therefore not getting either night.
I don’t think this applies to MSG, as you couldn’t win both nights. I also don’t think it applies to Vancouver BC, which I think was done by Ticketmaster Canada (who may have done the draw correctly).
Thoughts?
It's not just GA. If someone put it for GA/P1 seats to both shows for a US city EXCLUDING NYC (i.e. Vegas, LA, Chicago, Philly and Boston or Seattle) they were ALMOST positively given the same results for each show in the same city. It is city specific. This did not occur for those entering 1 Wrigley show and 1 Philly show, etc... This did not appear to occur in Vancouver, Likely due to TM Canada handling it rather than US TM.
@mookieblalock - the pool already seems to be skewed due to people failing to read the information I was looking for. Or my inability to communicate it thoroughly. I was not iso feedback from those who entered a single show in Vegas and a show in Missoula. Strictly both shows of 1 city.
So, if selected for GA in LA 1, they also were nearly guaranteed GA night 2 If given P1 for Wrigley 1, they were also going to recieve P1 for Wrigley 2
Example: Person A put in request for GA/P1 for 6 shows LA 1 LA 2 Vegas 1 Vegas 2 Wrigley 1 Wrigley 2
What we are seeing as "random" results: LA 1 - GA LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - GA Wrigley 2 - GA
COULD this happen through statistical odds? Yeah, it could. Likely? No. Likely to be repeated many times? Not at all.
Actual random based on Likely quantity of GA tickets to requests: LA 1 - P1 Reserved LA 2 - GA Vegas 1 - P1 Reserved Vegas 2 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 1 - P1 Reserved Wrigley 2 - GA
how do you explain those that put in for 2 shows in the same city and only got selected for one show?
There are reports of results trickling out today, so there is that. There are also some (very very few) who also reported securing GA for 1 show in a city and Reserved for the other show in the same city. But there is no way the percentages line up. Something in the drawing/algorithm is incorrect.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
This exactly. The question of whether the system is fair or another system is better is beside the point of the OP's premise that the bits of data that we're seeing don't pass the smell test. Those saying "that's just how statistics work" don't have enough data to say that the results we're seeing are consistent with the results that should be expected with a random draw. And given TM's track record with these lotteries--two redraws last year due to mistakes, for example--I don't understand why some are quick to write off the possibility that these draws were not executed in a truly random fashion.
Not sour grapes -- I wasn't expecting anything great from the lottery and almost didn't enter at all.
Has it occurred to the mathematicians in the group that “people who post on forum/Facebook because they’re bummed” is possibly an incomplete data set? You can’t make any conclusions based on the limited number of people who post here, most of whom are posting because they are upset. but yeah, priority NEEDS to come back next time.
One thing to keep in mind. Both here and on Facebook, there are people complaining this morning who never actually entered the lottery. They registered for Verified Fan and thought that was the lottery, or they went to add a show on the last day and cancelled out all their previous picks. Not saying that describes any of you, but it does happen each year.
Agree. A lot of the frustration is being generated by people who didn't really understand the process or made a mistake by accident.
Probably likely the algorithm in the program they used for the draws was poor and repulled the same numbers. People who entered everything to maximize their odds, won big as a result.
I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
This exactly. The question of whether the system is fair or another system is better is beside the point of the OP's premise that the bits of data that we're seeing don't pass the smell test. Those saying "that's just how statistics work" don't have enough data to say that the results we're seeing are consistent with the results that should be expected with a random draw. And given TM's track record with these lotteries--two redraws last year due to mistakes, for example--I don't understand why some are quick to write off the possibility that these draws were not executed in a truly random fashion.
Not sour grapes -- I wasn't expecting anything great from the lottery and almost didn't enter at all.
This ^ for SHZA! Simply put, something went wrong with the random draw.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
I won for two shows…don’t know which but the charges were on my card. Bank declined purchase because attempted purchase was done after the 24 hour notation I gave them to approve on my account.
I’ve contacted everyone I can think of but I keep getting a generic response that I’ll know Wednesday. I don’t think I’m going to get the same response that dimi did.
I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
This exactly. The question of whether the system is fair or another system is better is beside the point of the OP's premise that the bits of data that we're seeing don't pass the smell test. Those saying "that's just how statistics work" don't have enough data to say that the results we're seeing are consistent with the results that should be expected with a random draw. And given TM's track record with these lotteries--two redraws last year due to mistakes, for example--I don't understand why some are quick to write off the possibility that these draws were not executed in a truly random fashion.
Not sour grapes -- I wasn't expecting anything great from the lottery and almost didn't enter at all.
This ^ for SHZA! Simply put, something went wrong with the random draw.
Since I don't have hard data, I will suggest something that may have happened only based on the results I have seen here and heard through friends - so it may be off base, but thought it was worth a mention. Do any of you think that they drew for cities and not specific shows. So, if a person put in for two shows and they got whatever they got for the first show, they were also automatically given that for the second show. And if the first show was not won at all, then you were also not given the second show? But if you only put in for the second show, then you were in the draw for that show. From some of the winning patterns here, it almost seems like that. The two shows I got were both single night shows (Baltimore and MSG). But for the shows I put in with two nights - I was shut out of both nights completely. Again, just trying to figure out how some people got GA for both shows in multiple cities. I know it is possible, but seems so unlikely.
Yes, life isn’t fair and you’ll never get the perfect system, but shouldn’t the goal still be to try to eliminate as much of the imbalance and make it as fair as possible? We know it’s possible because they had it when they allowed for priority. Yes some people still will get shut out in a priority based system, but overall you’ll end up with a more balanced distribution of tickets. This years system actually worked out for me. Went 3/3 and got one GA (Baltimore) and two P2 (Seattle), but just cause it worked for me doesn’t mean I can’t identify the unfairness of someone else going 0/3. In a priority type system we might each go 1/3 but you would at least have more people coming away with something and I feel like that should be the goal.
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
I'm not cherry picking, I'm pointing out how this new system is unfair
Is it really unfair? Or is it unfair because it didn't work for you. Saying it multiple times loudly doesn't make it so
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
I'm not cherry picking, I'm pointing out how this new system is unfair
Is it really unfair? Or is it unfair because it didn't work for you. Saying it multiple times loudly doesn't make it so
Yes I stand by the fact that this system allows for unfair outcomes
I'm not here for conspiracy theories, and it is what it is at this point, but as a math person, a lot of it just doesn't pass the smell test statistically speaking...like at all.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
This exactly. The question of whether the system is fair or another system is better is beside the point of the OP's premise that the bits of data that we're seeing don't pass the smell test. Those saying "that's just how statistics work" don't have enough data to say that the results we're seeing are consistent with the results that should be expected with a random draw. And given TM's track record with these lotteries--two redraws last year due to mistakes, for example--I don't understand why some are quick to write off the possibility that these draws were not executed in a truly random fashion.
Not sour grapes -- I wasn't expecting anything great from the lottery and almost didn't enter at all.
This ^ for SHZA! Simply put, something went wrong with the random draw.
Since I don't have hard data, I will suggest something that may have happened only based on the results I have seen here and heard through friends - so it may be off base, but thought it was worth a mention. Do any of you think that they drew for cities and not specific shows. So, if a person put in for two shows and they got whatever they got for the first show, they were also automatically given that for the second show. And if the first show was not won at all, then you were also not given the second show? But if you only put in for the second show, then you were in the draw for that show. From some of the winning patterns here, it almost seems like that. The two shows I got were both single night shows (Baltimore and MSG). But for the shows I put in with two nights - I was shut out of both nights completely. Again, just trying to figure out how some people got GA for both shows in multiple cities. I know it is possible, but seems so unlikely.
That's almost exactly what I think happened. There have been so few reports of same city splits (Seats on night and GA the other) that there was likely a selection difference of some sort from the majority. I could see the results trickling out today being of a more random nature as the issue has likely been identified and possibly corrected.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
It's a completely separate draw for each and every show. The results of any other show have zero bearing on who is selected. There is no fair/unfair. As long as you're actually in the draw and not just registered for Verified Fan, everyone has the same chance of being selected. Unless a recap of final results using the full spectrum of winners vs. entries etc. for each show is released, speculating based on a small subset of results reported by members online will never represent what happened. The complaining and conspiracy theories are fun to read though. Carry on.
**Edit MSG only shows where result of another show mattered as you could only win for one of the MSG shows**
Post edited by jwhjr17 on
1998-06-30 Mpls | 2006-07-06 Las Vegas | 2010-05-03 Kansas City | 2011-07-01 St. Louis EV | 2011-07-02 Mpls EV | 2011-09-03 PJ20 2011-09-04 PJ20 | 2011-09-17 Winnipeg | 2012-09-30 Missoula | 2012-11-18 Tulsa EV | 2013-07-19 Chicago | 2013-11-15 Dallas 2013-11-16 OKC | 2014-10-09 Lincoln | 2014-10-17 Moline | 2014-10-19 St. Paul | 2014-10-20 Milwaukee | 2016-08-20 Chicago 2016-08-22 Chicago | 2018-08-18 Chicago | 2018-08-20 Chicago | 2022-05-09 Phoenix | 2022-05-20 Las Vegas | 2022-09-18 St. Louis 2022-09-20 OKC | 2023-08-31 St. Paul | 2023-09-02 St. Paul | 2024-05-16 Las Vegas | 2024-05-18 Las Vegas |
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
This. If it fits the conspiracy narrative it must be true!
I do agree that getting multiple GAs in the same city is pretty rare. Odds wise it probably shouldn't happen.
However, basing it off a few people on a message board doesn't make it true. A lot of members, and I'd bet the majority don't come here. We have no idea how it went for them.
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
I'm not cherry picking, I'm pointing out how this new system is unfair
Ever since the 10c did away with the postcard system, every method they have utilized to sell tickets has been deemed “unfair” by people on the boards. And it will never change. Ever.
Listen I understood the priority system and how to use it. If I selected a high demand show as my top priority and didnt win, that was on me. I could almost guarantee a win or 2 if I set my priorities right. This complete randomness is asinine.
I couldn’t agree more. To have people win throw in shows they put there for the hell of it and me get shut out to the 2 shows I wanted to go to that I would’ve won in a priority system sucks. This process is broken beyond belief.
The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.
Your point is exactly right. The only thing that throws off the fairness model somewhat and could be tweaked, is they expressly said if you win one MSG, you can't win the other, so they essentially could tweak their algorithm to at minimum eliminate getting two GA for shows in the same city, frankly if they wanted to they could cap GA allotment, to a max of 50% of the shows you put in for and then do the random selections process and randomize the shows too.
I had a really great run in 2020/22 and 2023, though one of my two GA shows was cancelled, but I am not really a GA or the world collapses guy anyhow, so right now it appears I went 3 for 6.5 (I did the MSG request so one was a guaranteed loss that I why I am putting the half) assuming that is going to hold an that as today rolls on the sorry emails get issued I can't complain and will try to add a couple of the shows along the way via F2F.
But overall, you are correct, and I still suspect people are going after all Saturday Shows and things of that nature with just GA/P1 as their only selection, assuming they are actually doing it right. I suspect a lot of people kept redoing their submissions and fumbled along the way.
So my friend and I put in for the same shows. Haven’t 3 for 3 with 2 GA draws and I went 0-3. No matter how you slice it some thing seems off. Plus two of my shows were ball parks and the chances of getting shut out of reserved for those is slim in the past.
The system is not unfair, all members have an equal chance to win tickets to every show, for all seating levels. Each show is an individual draw with an equal chance for all members. It is the results that could be perceived as unfair as members were highly successful and others got nothing. Some people win at blackjack, some people lose their shirts. And if you selected GA/P1 for your only option and got nothing you should not be surprised.
Your point is exactly right. The only thing that throws off the fairness model somewhat and could be tweaked, is they expressly said if you win one MSG, you can't win the other, so they essentially could tweak their algorithm to at minimum eliminate getting two GA for shows in the same city, frankly if they wanted to they could cap GA allotment, to a max of 50% of the shows you put in for and then do the random selections process and randomize the shows too.
I had a really great run in 2020/22 and 2023, though one of my two GA shows was cancelled, but I am not really a GA or the world collapses guy anyhow, so right now it appears I went 3 for 6.5 (I did the MSG request so one was a guaranteed loss that I why I am putting the half) assuming that is going to hold an that as today rolls on the sorry emails get issued I can't complain and will try to add a couple of the shows along the way via F2F.
But overall, you are correct, and I still suspect people are going after all Saturday Shows and things of that nature with just GA/P1 as their only selection, assuming they are actually doing it right. I suspect a lot of people kept redoing their submissions and fumbled along the way.
This was my point... if they could cap MSG at one draw per member, they could have done the same for GA.
If they DGAF then why limit MSG at 1 show / person?
Again... sour grapes I know, but it doesn't make a f ton of sense.
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
I'm not cherry picking, I'm pointing out how this new system is unfair
Is it really unfair? Or is it unfair because it didn't work for you. Saying it multiple times loudly doesn't make it so
Yes I stand by the fact that this system allows for unfair outcomes
How many times have you been shutout in your lifetime?
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
This. If it fits the conspiracy narrative it must be true!
I do agree that getting multiple GAs in the same city is pretty rare. Odds wise it probably shouldn't happen.
However, basing it off a few people on a message board doesn't make it true. A lot of members, and I'd bet the majority don't come here. We have no idea how it went for them.
Exactly this. There are 101 members online right now. The "Official Results" thread has 2600 replies, but nowhere close to 2600 results. Even counting posts on Facebook, this is a small fraction of the results. There *may* be something else at play, but to look at this sample of results and cry, "Foul!" is also a bit ludicrous. Unfortunately, we'll probably never know the actual numbers or methodology.
That said, is this a "good" system? I don't think so. Prioritizing and show limits (I like 4, but that's also because I can't see myself laying out for more than 4 shows in one lottery) would go a long way, but no one involved in making those decisions seems to care enough to make that change.
As for fairness, well, that's always a matter of perspective, isn't it?
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 |
Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him. He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
You people are all cherry picking. You choose to only pay attention to the people who got GA to multiple shows rather than all of the people who did not.
End of story.
I'm not cherry picking, I'm pointing out how this new system is unfair
Is it really unfair? Or is it unfair because it didn't work for you. Saying it multiple times loudly doesn't make it so
Yes I stand by the fact that this system allows for unfair outcomes
How many times have you been shutout in your lifetime?
Multiple, but I knew based on my selections that was a likely outcome.
Let me guess, you hit a bunch of shows this drawing and therefore love this system?
Comments
You aren't debating the facts, just the system itself.
The lottery had been for a long time based on prefferrences. And in theory, you were nearly guaranteed your first and second choice (unless you pocked MSG).
For some reason that system didn't work as smoothly as predicted. It could have been glitches, not set up properly, or just people not understanding and following directions when they made their selection. I've never been convinced one way or another what the problem was, and never underestimate human stupidity and ability to follow basic directions.
But that does seem the most fair. Everyone who put in Vegas as their first or second pick should get it before someone who selected it as their 3rd or 4th.
Or, if we don't want to go back to preferences, when you "win" tickets to one show and the system moves onto the next show, your name can't be pulled until everyone without tickets to another show got selected first. There are many ways to spread the ticket love around. Maybe they just went with the simplest format. But the original goal as explained by the process several years ago was to spread the tickets around to as many different fans, and not wind up with someone with tickets to 10 shows and others with 0.
I personally have never been shut out, but never put in for more than 2 shows. Except for 2014 when I selected Brooklyn as my only show, and was not surprised I didn't get it.
I was in the Vegas draw for both shows, as was my wife. I also have two friends that did the same set up, and every one of us got the same pick for both shows. I got res for both, both my friends got res for both, and all 3 wives didn't get picked at all for either show. That combined with seeing a lot of people hitting GA for both just doesn't smell right to me, from a purely mathematical/statistical probablitly standpoint.
The odds of all that happening that way if truly random are almost inmeasurably small.
98' - 6/26, 6/27, 6/29, 8/26, 9/22
03' - 4/25
06' - 6/29, 6/30
07' - 8/05
09' - 8/23
11' - 9/03, 9/04
12' - 9/30
13' - 7/16, 7/19, 10/21, 10/22, 11/15, 11/16, 12/06
14' - 06/28, 06/29, 10/1, 10/03, 10/16, 10/17, 10/20, 10/22
15' - 11/20, 11/22
16' - 4/21, 4/26, 4/28, 4/29, 5/1, 5/2, 7/9, 8/5, 8/7, 8/20, 8/22
17' - 4/7
18' - 7/1, 7/3, 7/5, 8/8, 8/10, 8/18, 8/20, 9/4
21' - 10/1, 10/2
22' - 7/12, 7/14, 9/6, 9/8
Not sour grapes -- I wasn't expecting anything great from the lottery and almost didn't enter at all.
but yeah, priority NEEDS to come back next time.
yes
This years system actually worked out for me. Went 3/3 and got one GA (Baltimore) and two P2 (Seattle), but just cause it worked for me doesn’t mean I can’t identify the unfairness of someone else going 0/3. In a priority type system we might each go 1/3 but you would at least have more people coming away with something and I feel like that should be the goal.
**Edit MSG only shows where result of another show mattered as you could only win for one of the MSG shows**
2011-09-04 PJ20 | 2011-09-17 Winnipeg | 2012-09-30 Missoula | 2012-11-18 Tulsa EV | 2013-07-19 Chicago | 2013-11-15 Dallas
2013-11-16 OKC | 2014-10-09 Lincoln | 2014-10-17 Moline | 2014-10-19 St. Paul | 2014-10-20 Milwaukee | 2016-08-20 Chicago
2016-08-22 Chicago | 2018-08-18 Chicago | 2018-08-20 Chicago | 2022-05-09 Phoenix | 2022-05-20 Las Vegas | 2022-09-18 St. Louis
2022-09-20 OKC | 2023-08-31 St. Paul | 2023-09-02 St. Paul | 2024-05-16 Las Vegas | 2024-05-18 Las Vegas |
I do agree that getting multiple GAs in the same city is pretty rare. Odds wise it probably shouldn't happen.
However, basing it off a few people on a message board doesn't make it true. A lot of members, and I'd bet the majority don't come here. We have no idea how it went for them.
I had a really great run in 2020/22 and 2023, though one of my two GA shows was cancelled, but I am not really a GA or the world collapses guy anyhow, so right now it appears I went 3 for 6.5 (I did the MSG request so one was a guaranteed loss that I why I am putting the half) assuming that is going to hold an that as today rolls on the sorry emails get issued I can't complain and will try to add a couple of the shows along the way via F2F.
But overall, you are correct, and I still suspect people are going after all Saturday Shows and things of that nature with just GA/P1 as their only selection, assuming they are actually doing it right. I suspect a lot of people kept redoing their submissions and fumbled along the way.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652
If they DGAF then why limit MSG at 1 show / person?
Again... sour grapes I know, but it doesn't make a f ton of sense.
Exactly this. There are 101 members online right now. The "Official Results" thread has 2600 replies, but nowhere close to 2600 results. Even counting posts on Facebook, this is a small fraction of the results. There *may* be something else at play, but to look at this sample of results and cry, "Foul!" is also a bit ludicrous. Unfortunately, we'll probably never know the actual numbers or methodology.
That said, is this a "good" system? I don't think so. Prioritizing and show limits (I like 4, but that's also because I can't see myself laying out for more than 4 shows in one lottery) would go a long way, but no one involved in making those decisions seems to care enough to make that change.
As for fairness, well, that's always a matter of perspective, isn't it?
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
Let me guess, you hit a bunch of shows this drawing and therefore love this system?