Viruses / Vaccines

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  • lastexitlondon
    lastexitlondon Posts: 14,890
    curmudgeoness said:
    F Me In The Brain said:
    Zod said:
    mickeyrat said:
     https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-business-science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-292762c1dcf0a208cb78e18fc0694299
    Moderna expanding kids vaccine study to better assess safety
    By MATTHEW PERRONE and LINDA A. JOHNSON
    2 hours ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Moderna said Monday it plans to expand the size of its COVID-19 vaccine study in younger children to better detect rare side effects, such as a type of heart inflammation recently flagged by U.S. health authorities.



    Would it make a difference in the US.  Here in Canada we're probably going to end up at something like 80% of people over 12 will end up being vaccinated.  The problem being that that number will be under 70% when you include the people under 12.  Not enough for herd immunity.  So your stuck in the conundrum of not having herd immunity, or figuring out how to vaccinate the kids.

    The US though.. there's no real tipping point in needing to that.  Kids seem to be the most resilient against Covid19.  If complications are rare, they're also rare with covid, so it's a wash?

    I'm not sure I understand....
    Herd immunity is about impacting the spread of the virus, about a difference in how the virus is spread/mutates/etc, in the entire human population, right?
    It seems you are referencing what numbers tell us herd immunity is for a certain population?
    Wouldn't all people count, if we are concerned about impacting the virus for the whole community and not about statistics the govts will utilize to set standards with?

    Long Covid is a thing, even if kids are less likely to be hospitalized and die from this.
    Kids also get it and spread it to other non vaccinated folks....be it someone in their family who is unable to take the shots or is unwilling to because they are anti-vaxx.



    Some random points here:

    1) Since Delta is so much more transmissible, doctors (Fauci, et al) now seem to be saying that we might need to get to 90% for herd immunity. Not good.

    2) Contrary to anti-vax rumors that vaccines cause miscarriages and sterility, early reports are that COVID might reduce fertility -- an especially important complication for younger people. I've only seen one or two mentions of this, so my guess is there is not a lot of data -- yet. I imagine that if the data show a big negative impact on fertility that will cause younger people to be much more eager to get the shot.

    3) Long Covid: as someone living with an autoimmune disease, those symptoms are all too familiar; they were the biggest reason I was willing to do anything to get vaccinated. Spending years of your life dealing with a cluster of vague yet debilitating symptoms and trying to get back to feeling like your old self? Not fun.

    Another thought, since some people still say "It's just the flu." -- How many people saying that actually have had the flu and can remember what it was like? Back in February/ March 2020, when some people on here were upset that PJ was cancelling their spring tour, I reminded some of how H1N1 swept through the crowd at the Spectrum shows in Philly. We took our kids, then ages 10 and 13, and we went to all four shows. We all got sick -- first I got sick (so I've long believed that someone in the ticket office was contagious), then my husband, then the kids.

    We lost most of the month of November to H1N1. So last year, when my kids said "Don't worry, Mom, it's just like the flu!" I was able to say, hey, remember H1N1?!? And they both paused and said, oh. Yeah. That really sucked. And then they both got vaccinated against COVID at the first opportunity.

    There is a big wave of mandates happening now, and frankly I'm glad to see it.
    Well said


    this song is meant to be called i got shit,itshould be called i got shit tickets-hartford 06 -
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    An old interview from Fauci and the constant flip flopping on what herd immunity numbers need to be. The way he moves on herd immunity numbers is ridiculous. I respect the man even though he did not push back nearly enough under Trump but to change numbers just because of public acceptance of a vaccine is growing is not science. 



    In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying “70, 75 percent” in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

    Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.

    Asked about Dr. Fauci’s conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60 to 70 percent was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.

    Dr. Fauci said that weeks ago, he had hesitated to publicly raise his estimate because many Americans seemed hesitant about vaccines, which they would need to accept almost universally in order for the country to achieve herd immunity.


    Now that some polls are showing that many more Americans are ready, even eager, for vaccines, he said he felt he could deliver the tough message that the return to normal might take longer than anticipated.

    “When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent,” Dr. Fauci said. “Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, ‘I can nudge this up a bit,’ so I went to 80, 85.”

    “We need to have some humility here,” he added. “We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent.”

    Doing so might be discouraging to Americans, he said, because he is not sure there will be enough voluntary acceptance of vaccines to reach that goal. Although sentiments about vaccines in polls have bounced up and down this year, several current ones suggest that about 20 percent of Americans say they are unwilling to accept any vaccine.

  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,808
    curmudgeoness said:
    F Me In The Brain said:
    Zod said:
    mickeyrat said:
     https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-business-science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-292762c1dcf0a208cb78e18fc0694299
    Moderna expanding kids vaccine study to better assess safety
    By MATTHEW PERRONE and LINDA A. JOHNSON
    2 hours ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Moderna said Monday it plans to expand the size of its COVID-19 vaccine study in younger children to better detect rare side effects, such as a type of heart inflammation recently flagged by U.S. health authorities.



    Would it make a difference in the US.  Here in Canada we're probably going to end up at something like 80% of people over 12 will end up being vaccinated.  The problem being that that number will be under 70% when you include the people under 12.  Not enough for herd immunity.  So your stuck in the conundrum of not having herd immunity, or figuring out how to vaccinate the kids.

    The US though.. there's no real tipping point in needing to that.  Kids seem to be the most resilient against Covid19.  If complications are rare, they're also rare with covid, so it's a wash?

    I'm not sure I understand....
    Herd immunity is about impacting the spread of the virus, about a difference in how the virus is spread/mutates/etc, in the entire human population, right?
    It seems you are referencing what numbers tell us herd immunity is for a certain population?
    Wouldn't all people count, if we are concerned about impacting the virus for the whole community and not about statistics the govts will utilize to set standards with?

    Long Covid is a thing, even if kids are less likely to be hospitalized and die from this.
    Kids also get it and spread it to other non vaccinated folks....be it someone in their family who is unable to take the shots or is unwilling to because they are anti-vaxx.



    Some random points here:

    1) Since Delta is so much more transmissible, doctors (Fauci, et al) now seem to be saying that we might need to get to 90% for herd immunity. Not good.

    2) Contrary to anti-vax rumors that vaccines cause miscarriages and sterility, early reports are that COVID might reduce fertility -- an especially important complication for younger people. I've only seen one or two mentions of this, so my guess is there is not a lot of data -- yet. I imagine that if the data show a big negative impact on fertility that will cause younger people to be much more eager to get the shot.

    3) Long Covid: as someone living with an autoimmune disease, those symptoms are all too familiar; they were the biggest reason I was willing to do anything to get vaccinated. Spending years of your life dealing with a cluster of vague yet debilitating symptoms and trying to get back to feeling like your old self? Not fun.

    Another thought, since some people still say "It's just the flu." -- How many people saying that actually have had the flu and can remember what it was like? Back in February/ March 2020, when some people on here were upset that PJ was cancelling their spring tour, I reminded some of how H1N1 swept through the crowd at the Spectrum shows in Philly. We took our kids, then ages 10 and 13, and we went to all four shows. We all got sick -- first I got sick (so I've long believed that someone in the ticket office was contagious), then my husband, then the kids.

    We lost most of the month of November to H1N1. So last year, when my kids said "Don't worry, Mom, it's just like the flu!" I was able to say, hey, remember H1N1?!? And they both paused and said, oh. Yeah. That really sucked. And then they both got vaccinated against COVID at the first opportunity.

    There is a big wave of mandates happening now, and frankly I'm glad to see it.

    So..........I like everything you said, but I am not sure how any of this relates to the discussion on kids under 12 getting a vaccine or if kids getting counted impacts the herd numbers.
    Wondered if I missed something or if they really were random/unconnected.  :)



    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • curmudgeoness
    curmudgeoness Brigadoon, foodie capital Posts: 4,130
    F Me In The Brain said:

    So..........I like everything you said, but I am not sure how any of this relates to the discussion on kids under 12 getting a vaccine or if kids getting counted impacts the herd numbers.
    Wondered if I missed something or if they really were random/unconnected.  :)



    I think it relates to that specifically as well as to the general thread.

    I think determining as quickly as possible if it's safe for kids under 12 to get the vaccine is important because:

    1) It looks like we need to hit more than 70% vaccinated for herd immunity, given how transmissible delta is -- so that means vaccinating kids

    2) If COVID impacts fertility I think we will be even more concerned about vaccinating our kids

    3) It does sound like kids are getting long COVID, which would be another reason to push to get them protected. Long COVID sounds, to me -- a non-doctor living with an autoimmune disease -- a lot like an autoimmune condition. How long *is* long COVID? I'd be eager to protect my children from years of feeling like garbage.
    All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
  • curmudgeoness
    curmudgeoness Brigadoon, foodie capital Posts: 4,130
    PJNB said:
    An old interview from Fauci and the constant flip flopping on what herd immunity numbers need to be. The way he moves on herd immunity numbers is ridiculous. I respect the man even though he did not push back nearly enough under Trump but to change numbers just because of public acceptance of a vaccine is growing is not science. 



    In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying “70, 75 percent” in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

    Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.

    Asked about Dr. Fauci’s conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60 to 70 percent was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.

    Dr. Fauci said that weeks ago, he had hesitated to publicly raise his estimate because many Americans seemed hesitant about vaccines, which they would need to accept almost universally in order for the country to achieve herd immunity.



    I also wish that they had been more consistent in their messaging. I think political pressures and economic pressures played a big role. Another factor, though, is/was that doctors just didn't have information about the virus (a novel virus, after all) -- how was it transmitted, how transmissible was it. E.g. early messaging on masking was inconsistent, partly because they weren't sure if masks were necessary.

    When we initially went into lockdown, we were told "two weeks," which was pretty obviously not going to be enough. But if we had been told "at least a year," I can imagine that there would have been mayhem. What would have been the right balance to strike? I don't know.


    All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
  • Zod
    Zod Posts: 10,892
    lol.. on the fertility thing.. I was talking to a buddy the other week and being an idiot.   Where you just spitball, and I was like.. what if governments and world scientists realized that humanity was doomed?  Not just, a slow doom over the next 100 years, but truly fucked.  What would they do?  Would they go public with it in an attempt to save it.   Would they try to come up with an alternate plan?   Could you use a pandemic to try and get everyone to take a shot?  What if the plan was to sterilize a large portion of the population so drastically reduce the population of the planet to give it a chance?

    Largely I stole that from an old stargate episode, and I was trying to get a rise out of him with a conspiracy theory, but I fund it odd it's showing up on a list of possible side effects :)
  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,808
    curmudgeoness said:
    F Me In The Brain said:

    So..........I like everything you said, but I am not sure how any of this relates to the discussion on kids under 12 getting a vaccine or if kids getting counted impacts the herd numbers.
    Wondered if I missed something or if they really were random/unconnected.  :)



    I think it relates to that specifically as well as to the general thread.

    I think determining as quickly as possible if it's safe for kids under 12 to get the vaccine is important because:

    1) It looks like we need to hit more than 70% vaccinated for herd immunity, given how transmissible delta is -- so that means vaccinating kids

    2) If COVID impacts fertility I think we will be even more concerned about vaccinating our kids

    3) It does sound like kids are getting long COVID, which would be another reason to push to get them protected. Long COVID sounds, to me -- a non-doctor living with an autoimmune disease -- a lot like an autoimmune condition. How long *is* long COVID? I'd be eager to protect my children from years of feeling like garbage.

    Got it, thank you for the clarification.  I can be slow sometimes.  ;/
    We agree on the kids angle and I like everything you wrote there.
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    curmudgeoness said:
    PJNB said:
    An old interview from Fauci and the constant flip flopping on what herd immunity numbers need to be. The way he moves on herd immunity numbers is ridiculous. I respect the man even though he did not push back nearly enough under Trump but to change numbers just because of public acceptance of a vaccine is growing is not science. 



    In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying “70, 75 percent” in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

    In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

    Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.

    Asked about Dr. Fauci’s conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60 to 70 percent was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.

    Dr. Fauci said that weeks ago, he had hesitated to publicly raise his estimate because many Americans seemed hesitant about vaccines, which they would need to accept almost universally in order for the country to achieve herd immunity.



    I also wish that they had been more consistent in their messaging. I think political pressures and economic pressures played a big role. Another factor, though, is/was that doctors just didn't have information about the virus (a novel virus, after all) -- how was it transmitted, how transmissible was it. E.g. early messaging on masking was inconsistent, partly because they weren't sure if masks were necessary.

    When we initially went into lockdown, we were told "two weeks," which was pretty obviously not going to be enough. But if we had been told "at least a year," I can imagine that there would have been mayhem. What would have been the right balance to strike? I don't know.


    I agree with this and am ok with the goalposts moving for the right reasons. Say something like the Delta variant is a cause for concern and herd immunity numbers are likely needed to be greater than previously thought. Got it makes sense. Leave it at that. Not the fact that poll numbers are out and more people are likely to get vaccinated so you can move the number up since the public should now be able to handle it. That is an easy way to lose credibility especially for those that are already on the fence on what side to take. 
  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    Know what I particularly love about this virus? It really brings out the humanity of all. I see it everywhere and it’s unmistakable — not one shred of hate or vitriol or la-la-la’ing with hands covering the ears. 

    Our society is so kind, so open, so willing to hear others out, even if our views are polar opposites. Because discussions, arguments even, can’t be what stifle the exchange of ideas. Or am I wrong? I must be. 

    No matter; it just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Mmm mmm good. 
  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,808
    :lol:

    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • gvn2fly1421
    gvn2fly1421 Posts: 935
    At seems the science around masks has changed again...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/27/health/cdc-masks-indoors-delta-variant.html

    The C.D.C. will recommend that some vaccinated people wear masks indoors again.



    Reversing a decision made just two months ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to recommend on Tuesday that people vaccinated for the coronavirus resume wearing masks indoors in certain areas of the country.

    The change follows reports of rising breakthrough infections with the Delta variant of the virus in people who were fully immunized, and case surges in regions with low vaccination rates. The vaccines remain effective against the worst outcomes of infection with the virus, including those involving the Delta variant.

    But the new guidance, the details of which are expected later Tuesday, would mark a sharp turnabout from the agency’s position since May that vaccinated people do not need to wear masks in most indoor spaces.

    As recently as last week, an agency spokesman said that the C.D.C. had no plans to change its guidance, unless there were a significant change in the science. Federal officials met on Sunday night to review new evidence that may have prompted the reversal, CNN reported on Tuesday.





  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    F Me In The Brain said:
    :lol:

    I think Manbearpig is really Bert Kreischer =)
  • Kat
    Kat Posts: 4,956
    No more second, third, fourth chances. Discuss the topic and not each other. Timeouts have to be given.

    Falling down,...not staying down
  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,808
    hedonist said:
    F Me In The Brain said:
    :lol:

    I think Manbearpig is really Bert Kreischer =)

    Agree!
    Do we know where Bert stands on the vaccine?
    :lol: 
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    Kat said:
    No more second, third, fourth chances. Discuss the topic and not each other. Timeouts have to be given.

    guess I missed something......
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • curmudgeoness
    curmudgeoness Brigadoon, foodie capital Posts: 4,130
    About today's masking reversal:


    <<Top health officials, who were debating the new masking guidance on Monday afternoon, said the game-changer was new data showing that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant carry the same viral load as unvaccinated people who are infected, according to three people familiar with the data. Vaccinated people are unlikely to become severely ill, but the new data raises questions about how easily they might transmit the disease, said the three individuals. Such transmission did not happen in any significant way with earlier variants.>>


    So. Again: This is still a new disease. As it mutates, it changes. Policy needs to change along with it.

    Earlier data showed that vaccinated people who experienced breakthrough infections carried a much lower viral load than unvaccinated people did. This changed with the delta variant. And now delta is the predominant strain in the US.

    Delta behaves differently than the wild strain -- higher viral load in everyone, attacks the body differently, shorter time between infection and onset of symptoms.

    So, until today, since vaccinated people were unlikely to infect others, the masking requirement was lifted. The data have changed, so policy is following.
    All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    curmudgeoness said:
    About today's masking reversal:


    <<Top health officials, who were debating the new masking guidance on Monday afternoon, said the game-changer was new data showing that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant carry the same viral load as unvaccinated people who are infected, according to three people familiar with the data. Vaccinated people are unlikely to become severely ill, but the new data raises questions about how easily they might transmit the disease, said the three individuals. Such transmission did not happen in any significant way with earlier variants.>>


    So. Again: This is still a new disease. As it mutates, it changes. Policy needs to change along with it.

    Earlier data showed that vaccinated people who experienced breakthrough infections carried a much lower viral load than unvaccinated people did. This changed with the delta variant. And now delta is the predominant strain in the US.

    Delta behaves differently than the wild strain -- higher viral load in everyone, attacks the body differently, shorter time between infection and onset of symptoms.

    So, until today, since vaccinated people were unlikely to infect others, the masking requirement was lifted. The data have changed, so policy is following.
    makes perfect sense.....to sensible people. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • Kat
    Kat Posts: 4,956
    It sure does. The virus is living and this has been in my head lately. It wasn't just a great movie line. Be safe all.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiVVzxoPTtg


    Falling down,...not staying down
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    edited July 2021
    curmudgeoness said:
    About today's masking reversal:


    <<Top health officials, who were debating the new masking guidance on Monday afternoon, said the game-changer was new data showing that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant carry the same viral load as unvaccinated people who are infected, according to three people familiar with the data. Vaccinated people are unlikely to become severely ill, but the new data raises questions about how easily they might transmit the disease, said the three individuals. Such transmission did not happen in any significant way with earlier variants.>>


    So. Again: This is still a new disease. As it mutates, it changes. Policy needs to change along with it.

    Earlier data showed that vaccinated people who experienced breakthrough infections carried a much lower viral load than unvaccinated people did. This changed with the delta variant. And now delta is the predominant strain in the US.

    Delta behaves differently than the wild strain -- higher viral load in everyone, attacks the body differently, shorter time between infection and onset of symptoms.

    So, until today, since vaccinated people were unlikely to infect others, the masking requirement was lifted. The data have changed, so policy is following.
    Your last sentence though is still correct. Vaccinated people are unlikely still to infect others. It is the breakthrough cases (which are rare) that will possibly be able to transmit the disease as easy as an unvaccinated person. The vaccine still works incredibly well against the Delta. This has not changed. 
    Post edited by PJNB on
  • dankind
    dankind Posts: 20,841
    When the facts, I change my mind. What do you do?
    I SAW PEARL JAM
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