Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

First PA poll post debate out and it’s trump +2.

yes it’s garbage according to 538 (Even tho their PA odds dropped to 84% today), but that’s the GOP game. They’ll be flooding the swing states with garbage polls this week so chaps like Santorum can go on CNN for seven hours a day and say “well these are the polls I look at and trump has all the momentum and even that pro democrat former NYT forecaster now at 538, even he has Bidens chances dropping 10% this week. I see nothing but trump wins in PA NC and FL and he will coast to victory.”

that’s gotta be worth tens of millions in free advertising and it could change minds in the last week. Again.

that’s why I have been frustrated with 538. Polling is a game and the gop tries to leverage it as a weapon. Played.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf

The Juggler

Lerxst1992 said:

First PA poll post debate out and it’s trump +2.

yes it’s garbage according to 538 (Even tho their PA odds dropped to 84% today), but that’s the GOP game. They’ll be flooding the swing states with garbage polls this week so chaps like Santorum can go on CNN for seven hours a day and say “well these are the polls I look at and trump has all the momentum and even that pro democrat former NYT forecaster now at 538, even he has Bidens chances dropping 10% this week. I see nothing but trump wins in PA NC and FL and he will coast to victory.”

that’s gotta be worth tens of millions in free advertising and it could change minds in the last week. Again.

that’s why I have been frustrated with 538. Polling is a game and the gop tries to leverage it as a weapon. Played.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf

lol
Good. Keep garbage polls like this coming. It should motivate Biden voters more. 

Gern Blansten

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

The economist is showing Biden with a 94% chance

Jearlpam0925

Gern Blansten said:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

The economist is showing Biden with a 94% chance

Yeah they've really jumped in balls first. Respect. 

OnWis97

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

I don't know how anyone looks at that graphic and feels good. New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.  All light blue.  I don's see Trump losing any outside of maybe Minnesota and Nevada.  And the light pink ones?  Color them dark red right now.

lol

Are you not going to allow yourself any level of confidence until 12:00pm on 1/20/21?

I'm certainly not before the election.  Then if he somehow loses, we'll see how things start to shape up...

The Juggler

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

I don't know how anyone looks at that graphic and feels good. New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.  All light blue.  I don's see Trump losing any outside of maybe Minnesota and Nevada.  And the light pink ones?  Color them dark red right now.

lol

Are you not going to allow yourself any level of confidence until 12:00pm on 1/20/21?

I'm certainly not before the election.  Then if he somehow loses, we'll see how things start to shape up...

"Somehow." 

At this point "somehow" should be used to describe him winning. 

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

First PA poll post debate out and it’s 4trump +2.

yes it’s garbage according to 538 (Even tho their PA odds dropped to 84% today), but that’s the GOP game. They’ll be flooding the swing states with garbage polls this week so chaps like Santorum can go on CNN for seven hours a day and say “well these are the polls I look at and trump has all the momentum and even that pro democrat former NYT forecaster now at 538, even he has Bidens chances dropping 10% this week. I see nothing but trump wins in PA NC and FL and he will coast to victory.”

that’s gotta be worth tens of millions in free advertising and it could change minds in the last week. Again.

that’s why I have been frustrated with 538. Polling is a game and the gop tries to leverage it as a weapon. Played.

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf

400 lv only.  So throw it out there.  And Trump has a huge lead on the 18-44 range.  I don't think so m

The Juggler

Jearlpam0925

Starting to pivot to my concern over getting the Senate as well. Because if they can't get all three branches then I don’t think they have a shot of making any real change.

bootleg

Still nervous as hell about this whole thing.   Really hoping Dems flood the polls and don’t rely on maili in ballots.  We need to win this thing big on election night to take away any chance of bull shit going down in the Supreme Court.  I hate that this fuck got to appoint 3 SC in one term.  Where is the fucking balance?  Five judges appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote?  And 5 states get to determine the election outcome?  We’ve got a serious problem.  Sorry for the language, it’s just boiling up and I’m tired of being held hostage by the minority.

Gern Blansten

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

OnWis97

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Gern Blansten

538 puts GA back in Biden's column.....Nate says 

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321073476279717889

tbergs

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

We all know that if Republicans had won the popular vote for the last 30 years in every election, but were only elected half of the time, they would have damn sure changed the rules. All they have been doing the last 10 years though is ensuring that the voice of the majority does not actually mean control. Every year they make minor adjustments that impact how votes against them can be discarded. You see it with the weakening of the USPS and now WI disregarding votes that are postmarked before the election, but don't arrive by 8pm that day. The stage was set months ago and now that the SCOTUS is a partisan group of hacks, shit like this can be upheld.

OnWis97

tbergs said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

We all know that if Republicans had won the popular vote for the last 30 years in every election, but were only elected half of the time, they would have damn sure changed the rules. All they have been doing the last 10 years though is ensuring that the voice of the majority does not actually mean control. Every year they make minor adjustments that impact how votes against them can be discarded. You see it with the weakening of the USPS and now WI disregarding votes that are postmarked before the election, but don't arrive by 8pm that day. The stage was set months ago and now that the SCOTUS is a partisan group of hacks, shit like this can be upheld.

In 2000, there were some believers that Gore might win the election despite Bush winning the popular vote. I really, really wanted that to happen because I thought it might lead to a change (and because Gore would have won).  Unfortunately the opposite happened and the same people that ripped Clinton for not getting a majority (thanks to Perot) were silent on Bush not getting a plurality.

Jearlpam0925

Just so everyone knows - models do not take into account for disruption and/or court fuckery (legal term). So take that little laptop of yours, get a Google Voice number, create a script, and copy & paste it to everyone you know via text to make sure everyone and their mothers are voting.

bootleg

Jearlpam0925 said:

Just so everyone knows - models do not take into account for disruption and/or court fuckery (legal term). So take that little laptop of yours, get a Google Voice number, create a script, and copy & paste it to everyone you know via text to make sure everyone and their mothers are voting.

Read a thread on Twitter that I can’t find again but the gist of it was that exit polls in states with GOP lead legislatures were often off from the final vote counts.  People came out thinking that they voted but their vote was provisional due some type of suppression fuckery and ultimately not counted.  And this was only happening in GOP areas.  In Dem locations the exit polling very closely matched the final voting margins.  It’s not just the vote that matters, it’s the count.  Got to be extra vigilant to make sure your vote is being counted especially all of you mail in voters.  Got to follow the process to a T or else you’re opening your vote up to GOP fuckery.

HughFreakingDillon

it's just insane to me (and probably other non-americans) how your country's elections and other things of that nature resemble that of a country with a dictator. it's crazy that this shit can be done. you don't hear about anything remotely like this in canada. 

The Juggler

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

HughFreakingDillon

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

the next round of mid terms you'll have nervous repub senators coming out saying trump was a mistake.