Auto-Save Draft feature temporarily disabled. Please be sure you manually save your post by selecting "Save Draft" if you have that need.

Nate Silver 538

1414243444547»

Comments

  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,894
    benjs said:
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 
    desperate to be right
    Liberal QAnon made its way to Manitoba? I would never expect a Canadian to understand  the trump phenomenon 

    Silver got shamed. Wrong outside MoE in 9 of 11 key states. Lecture me he is not a pollster. Then after he screws up, lecture me because he can’t do a good job because the polls suck.

    He has a lot of interesting articles and writers but he made hundreds of factual errors this year and should get out of the prediction business. No the pollsters did not compensate for NCWs. No Biden did no make major widespread  strides in suburbs except for a small shift in a tiny handful  of metro areas that prevented a disaster. Completely missed an R+22 shift in the most important swing state metro area,  Most voters did the same thing as last time, as many warned him was going to happen, but Nate knows better. Throw away 39,999 of those simulations, as they were absolute garbage and almost cost Biden the win.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,096
    benjs said:
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 
    desperate to be right
    Liberal QAnon made its way to Manitoba? I would never expect a Canadian to understand  the trump phenomenon 

    Silver got shamed. Wrong outside MoE in 9 of 11 key states. Lecture me he is not a pollster. Then after he screws up, lecture me because he can’t do a good job because the polls suck.

    He has a lot of interesting articles and writers but he made hundreds of factual errors this year and should get out of the prediction business. No the pollsters did not compensate for NCWs. No Biden did no make major widespread  strides in suburbs except for a small shift in a tiny handful  of metro areas that prevented a disaster. Completely missed an R+22 shift in the most important swing state metro area,  Most voters did the same thing as last time, as many warned him was going to happen, but Nate knows better. Throw away 39,999 of those simulations, as they were absolute garbage and almost cost Biden the win.
    You clearly paid no attention. Silver constantly said that things would be tighter if polls were adjusted to margins of error. 
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • F Me In The BrainF Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commetsPosts: 21,382
    Liberal Q.  That is funny.  As in, dumb as hell, but the term itself makes me laugh.

    At least there is that....
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,894
    edited November 12
    As dumb as wanting to be called an action that would lead to your demise?
    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • F Me In The BrainF Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commetsPosts: 21,382
    Right.  ?>?>?

    You started a thread to share Trump's genius.....you may have better luck finding people who agree with you there. 
    Or, maybe not.  Time will tell. 
    If not, you should come back over here and argue with everyone some more.
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    edited November 13
    I love nerding out on this shit.

    When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

    Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

    Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

    To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

    But this is my realistic prediction:


    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 23,802
    Liberal Q.  That is funny.  As in, dumb as hell, but the term itself makes me laugh.

    At least there is that....
    I'm Liberal Q. who knew? LOL. maybe I'm the one who spray painted the save the children hashtag on that railway overpass on my way to work. 

    I guess I just forgot. 
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,096
    I love nerding out on this shit.

    When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

    Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

    Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

    To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

    But this is my realistic prediction:


    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.
    I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 19,268
    I love nerding out on this shit.

    When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

    Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

    Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

    To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

    But this is my realistic prediction:


    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.
    I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 
    I expected AZ, but not GA.  I thought NC was 50/50. 
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,096
    mrussel1 said:
    I love nerding out on this shit.

    When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

    Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

    Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

    To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

    But this is my realistic prediction:


    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.
    I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 
    I expected AZ, but not GA.  I thought NC was 50/50. 
    I was thinking TX, FL and OH would turn blue....boy that was a fucked up thought.  
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 19,268
    mrussel1 said:
    I love nerding out on this shit.

    When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

    Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

    Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

    To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

    But this is my realistic prediction:


    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.
    I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 
    I expected AZ, but not GA.  I thought NC was 50/50. 
    I was thinking TX, FL and OH would turn blue....boy that was a fucked up thought.  
    FL and OH are going the other way.  Like Missouri.  These states are becoming more red.  More and more, the split will be by education level more than anything else.  That's the new alignment. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    edited November 16
    You mean becoming dumber. Yes, I'm a dick.
    Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on
Sign In or Register to comment.