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Nate Silver 538

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  • dignindignin Posts: 8,754
    mrussel1 said:
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    dignin said:
    And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.
    I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 


    I guess she is just a better person than Powell.  
    Now you're just being petty. You know that's not what I said, you're just basically pouting at this point, I don't understand why. If this candidate was your friend and I insulted her and hurt your feelings I apologize.

    Do I think she's a better politician? Based on the evidence I have little doubt. 
    Pouty? About what? Democrats and their voters are supposed to be better people than than our counterparts.  If I see something that doesn't live up to that standard,  I'm going to call it out.  I do it consistently on this board and in real life. 
    Fine, you've turned this into something it's not, but that's your perogative. 

    I want my candidates to be better politicians, tactitions and just all around tougher. I'm not quite sure what you want other than maybe platitudes. Reminds me of Melania's "be better".

    Trying to paint me as Trumpian is ridiculous, but go ahead. Water off a ducks back.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    dignin said:
    And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.
    I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 


    Right there with you. This is the kind of ground game of networking I'm talking about.
  • static111static111 Posts: 1,883
    mrussel1 said:
    This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.
    So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing?  Stoking fears?
    Organize
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    plot plan strategize organize mobilize
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 26,107
    plot plan strategize organize mobilize
    Plot? Socialist communist.
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  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    edited November 7
    It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.

    I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible. 
    Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    I think Pittsburgh dump of the segregated ballots from yesterday will be this afternoon. So I think that should definitely do it. Unless Philly comes with an 8k margin before then.
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 286
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
    Fuck her feelings
    Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..
    Spanberger almost lost here,  a district that Biden carried easily.  The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district.  It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats,  and almost cost her seat.  I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call.  It's not her fault that someone leaked it. 

    Regarding Powell crying,  she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison.  Different situation.  Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations.  And you know how that plays in the Cuban community.  She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win.  It might well have cost Biden Florida as well. 
    Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..
    Democrats run their share of negative ads.
    Would you say it’s on the same level as the Republicans?
    Yeah at the individual election level,  for sure.  I saw a roughly number of equal ads. In fact,  if you think about the cash advantage the dems had,  they probably ran far more negative ads simply because they ran far more ads period. 
    Just because Dems point out all of the awful shit Rs do does not make them negative ads.  Rs on the other hand just make shit up about candidates to stoke the fear.  There’s a difference.
  • dignindignin Posts: 8,754
    It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.

    I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible. 
    Right on. Politics is a contact sport, not meant for the feint of heart. Get out there, hit the pavement and knock on doors. Pull out that support that is already there.

    Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 19,270
    bootleg said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
    Fuck her feelings
    Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..
    Spanberger almost lost here,  a district that Biden carried easily.  The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district.  It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats,  and almost cost her seat.  I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call.  It's not her fault that someone leaked it. 

    Regarding Powell crying,  she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison.  Different situation.  Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations.  And you know how that plays in the Cuban community.  She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win.  It might well have cost Biden Florida as well. 
    Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..
    Democrats run their share of negative ads.
    Would you say it’s on the same level as the Republicans?
    Yeah at the individual election level,  for sure.  I saw a roughly number of equal ads. In fact,  if you think about the cash advantage the dems had,  they probably ran far more negative ads simply because they ran far more ads period. 
    Just because Dems point out all of the awful shit Rs do does not make them negative ads.  Rs on the other hand just make shit up about candidates to stoke the fear.  There’s a difference.
    Yeah I don't know about that.  Both sides spin on the official ads. It's different than the memes and other internet garbage. 
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,894
    I think Pittsburgh dump of the segregated ballots from yesterday will be this afternoon. So I think that should definitely do it. Unless Philly comes with an 8k margin before then.



    PA dashboard just dropped uncounted mail ballots by 13k first time in 15 hours it moved, but Biden margin has not budged in a while.
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWestPosts: 14,928
    I am no Democrat and I'm happy to kick dirt and blame on them when it's deserved, but I'm unsure what they are supposed to do when 70mil Americans look at Trump's first four years and try to sign up for four more. 
    ___________________________________________

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  • eeriepadaveeeriepadave West Chester, PAPosts: 34,004
    Is this the same dude that does sports predictions in baseball, basketball, etc.... ?

    i believe it is

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  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    edited November 7
    JimmyV said:
    I am no Democrat and I'm happy to kick dirt and blame on them when it's deserved, but I'm unsure what they are supposed to do when 70mil Americans look at Trump's first four years and try to sign up for four more. 
    Like I said, they need to build better than throwing money at a problem in the last 12 months before an election.

    For the Dems to ever have a shot they need to do more seed planting over years.
  • static111static111 Posts: 1,883
    Listening to NPR today they said that Nate Silver has been demoted to Nate Bronze!!!
  • josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 24,240
    dignin said:
    It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.

    I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible. 
    Right on. Politics is a contact sport, not meant for the feint of heart. Get out there, hit the pavement and knock on doors. Pull out that support that is already there.

    Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.
    I 2nd that thanks for walkin the pavement!!
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 23,802
    mrussel1 said:
    This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.
    So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing?  Stoking fears?
    all dems have to do is tell the truth with a slightly dramatic spin
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  • oftenreadingoftenreading Victoria, BCPosts: 11,540
    static111 said:
    Listening to NPR today they said that Nate Silver has been demoted to Nate Bronze!!!
    :lol:
    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,096
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,310
    Yeah how many times did we hear that "even if the polls were wrong by more than they were in '16, he'd still win? That's why folks were more confident this time around. 
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  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    Preach.

    FYI for anyone looking to make free money. For some ungodly reason PA, GA, AZ, and WI are clearly underpriced on predictit.org. So go get some free money. Also some other underpriced markets on there if you squint. Go get some money!
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,894
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,096
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Yeah and you were pushing Giuliani's bullshit on the other thread...
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • dignindignin Posts: 8,754
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Weren't you just on here yesterday spreading false info for the Trump campaign?
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,096
    I don't disagree that it sucks that dems can win the popular vote by 6 million votes and still almost lose the fucking election.  Makes no sense
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,310
    edited November 11
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Lol
    Yeah, sure. Actually if Trump didn't successfully brand most democrats as socialists (other than Biden), the democrats wouldn't have to worry about two long shot Georgia runoffs to have any shot at winning the senate. Thank god there was a more moderate dem at the top of the ticket...


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  • benjsbenjs Toronto, ONPosts: 8,259
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 
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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,096
    benjs said:
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 
    Exactly....and with there likely being 306 EC and 5mil+ more popular votes it came out the way it was predicted.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 23,802
    benjs said:
    Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


    538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
    Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 
    desperate to be right
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  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,744
    And it can't be stressed enough - though, I know a lot of people have tried - that you cannot forecast the Electoral College. Forecasting 50 individual races is incredibly tough, though like a normal person when you look at as a whole it's far easier. When the dust settles here neither 538 or Economist will be far off.
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