Nate Silver 538

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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,571
    Yeah, but he'd be the youngest of the 78's. He's actually healthier than 20 year olds, people have told me. 

    I also believe that he and McConnell will never die.
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,508
    The Juggler said:
    If Biden wins convincingly and the dems take back the senate....he's losing a lot of his clout. You're going to hear the Republicans go back to their post Romney loss playbook and figure out how they can actually grow their party as opposed to just playing to a 30% moronic base. 

    yep...and I can't wait for the dems to use McConnell's words against him...today he said something like "we had an election where the GOP was put in charge and we are carrying out our duties".

    The Dems can plaster that quote all over the place when the supreme court gets expanded
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  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,865
    edited October 2020
    The Juggler said:
    If Biden wins convincingly and the dems take back the senate....he's losing a lot of his clout. You're going to hear the Republicans go back to their post Romney loss playbook and figure out how they can actually grow their party as opposed to just playing to a 30% moronic base. 
    I dont think the Republicans have much of a choice.  This is why they tread so carefully and kiss his ass.  Trump says the word, and a primary challenger pops up with extreme right Qanon views.  

    I really believe that they *want* to... however, through all their kvetching through Obama's 8 years and discrediting of the media, making up false realities, etc.  Birtherism, Obama is a Muslim, Socialism, etc... Hell, Ill go back to 2004 and the lead-up to Bush vs Kerry and all the Swift boat ad nonsense. It has created a mess. 

    They created this Frankenstein Trump monster and now he is stomping around and destroying the lab. 

    These people are conditioned to believe that anyone who trump deems is 'deep state' is inherently bad.  Anyone with government experience who wont kiss Trump's ass is going to feel the wrath of his mob and be primaried.  The Republicans are going to need to continue to pretend to support this or their party will be split in half and thus unable to control anything as a majority on the national level.  
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,419
    edited October 2020
    GlowGirl said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I was just listening to some of tRump's speech in Lansing....amazing how he just yammers on about how far ahead he is.  You would think his message would be that it is close and "get out and vote" instead of gloating that he is ahead in states that he clearly trails in.
    I had that on the TV in the background. As soon as I heard the crowd start chanting - "We love you" - and the smug look on his face, I had to turn it off. It was making my blood pressure rise.

    His mission: accomplished - another lib OWNED! :lol:
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,571
    edited October 2020
    The best answer to getting any kind of balance back in line is voter, election, and district reform. Otherwise, I don't think there is any going back.

    This is good: https://www.ft.com/content/affe91ca-c1a9-41b2-8592-9ba9580eb130
    If that link doesn't work, then it works through a tweet link:

    Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,922
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So wait, he can run again in 2024 if he wanted to right?
    100%  But get ready for sleazy Don Jr.  
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,571
    Here we go - the good stuff:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,571
    Economist Model up to 95%. Economist Model don't care.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,133
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Here we go - the good stuff:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

    interesting article but it’s putting a chill in my burgeoning optimism. According to article, Biden’s chances drop about 60% if he loses PA and he is only up 5% there (which 538 and RCP both dropped 1.5% in the last week,almost 25% of Bidens PA lead). Just does not have the feel of a nearly 90% race, but I am done questioning that.

    On the optimistic side, nearly 70 million have voted and about 25% who did not vote in 2016. That has to be a good sign for Biden. 
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,922
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Here we go - the good stuff:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

    interesting article but it’s putting a chill in my burgeoning optimism. According to article, Biden’s chances drop about 60% if he loses PA and he is only up 5% there (which 538 and RCP both dropped 1.5% in the last week,almost 25% of Bidens PA lead). Just does not have the feel of a nearly 90% race, but I am done questioning that.

    On the optimistic side, nearly 70 million have voted and about 25% who did not vote in 2016. That has to be a good sign for Biden. 
    Considering Democratic leaners are less likely to vote AND Trump disparages voting by mail, this would be a very good sign.  Where did you get that info on the 25%?
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    In other words, the same stable race we have had for months (completely different than four years ago, in case I haven’t mentioned that enough):


    www.myspace.com
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,571
    This looks like a fun thing tomorrow:


  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,133
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Here we go - the good stuff:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

    interesting article but it’s putting a chill in my burgeoning optimism. According to article, Biden’s chances drop about 60% if he loses PA and he is only up 5% there (which 538 and RCP both dropped 1.5% in the last week,almost 25% of Bidens PA lead). Just does not have the feel of a nearly 90% race, but I am done questioning that.

    On the optimistic side, nearly 70 million have voted and about 25% who did not vote in 2016. That has to be a good sign for Biden. 
    Considering Democratic leaners are less likely to vote AND Trump disparages voting by mail, this would be a very good sign.  Where did you get that info on the 25%?

    I failed to mention that was for N.C. Very important state but could be a good news.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,133
    Yikes, +17 in Wisconsin.

    canary in a coal mine? Hopefully.

    ....

    ” A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

    Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,770
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Yikes, +17 in Wisconsin.

    canary in a coal mine? Hopefully.

    ....

    ” A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

    Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

    112% jump in deaths. Rounding the corner folks, rounding the corner.
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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,922
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Yikes, +17 in Wisconsin.

    canary in a coal mine? Hopefully.

    ....

    ” A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

    Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

    112% jump in deaths. Rounding the corner folks, rounding the corner.
    Rounding the corner?  Are you serious?  I guess you didn't hear that the pandemic is over.  https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-says-trump-ended-covid-pandemic-as-us-hits
    Get yourself informed already.
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,641
    mrussel1 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Yikes, +17 in Wisconsin.

    canary in a coal mine? Hopefully.

    ....

    ” A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

    Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

    112% jump in deaths. Rounding the corner folks, rounding the corner.
    Rounding the corner?  Are you serious?  I guess you didn't hear that the pandemic is over.  https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-says-trump-ended-covid-pandemic-as-us-hits
    Get yourself informed already.
    Can someone get in touch with W and see if he still has that “Mission Accomplished” banner?
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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,133
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Here we go - the good stuff:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

    interesting article but it’s putting a chill in my burgeoning optimism. According to article, Biden’s chances drop about 60% if he loses PA and he is only up 5% there (which 538 and RCP both dropped 1.5% in the last week,almost 25% of Bidens PA lead). Just does not have the feel of a nearly 90% race, but I am done questioning that.

    On the optimistic side, nearly 70 million have voted and about 25% who did not vote in 2016. That has to be a good sign for Biden. 
    Considering Democratic leaners are less likely to vote AND Trump disparages voting by mail, this would be a very good sign.  Where did you get that info on the 25%?

    I failed to mention that was for N.C. Very important state but could be a good news.

    Texas youth vote up 600%, which is important because overall Texas vote is already almost 90% of 2016 total, so,it’s a big sample.

    another canary in a coal mine?

    https://www.ksat.com/vote-2020/2020/10/27/the-youth-vote-in-texas-is-up-by-more-than-600-from-last-presidential-election/
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,770
    mrussel1 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Yikes, +17 in Wisconsin.

    canary in a coal mine? Hopefully.

    ....

    ” A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

    Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

    112% jump in deaths. Rounding the corner folks, rounding the corner.
    Rounding the corner?  Are you serious?  I guess you didn't hear that the pandemic is over.  https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-says-trump-ended-covid-pandemic-as-us-hits
    Get yourself informed already.
    My bad. Guess I don’t need to wear a mask in public and I can go clubbing again? Awesome!
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  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,469
    mrussel1 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Yikes, +17 in Wisconsin.

    canary in a coal mine? Hopefully.

    ....

    ” A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged President Donald Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for former Vice President Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

    Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

    112% jump in deaths. Rounding the corner folks, rounding the corner.
    Rounding the corner?  Are you serious?  I guess you didn't hear that the pandemic is over.  https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-says-trump-ended-covid-pandemic-as-us-hits
    Get yourself informed already.
    I really don't think he wants to be re-elected. Not that he would ever admit that, but he can kill 2 birds with 1 stone by continuing to make these outrageous claims because his base of supporters believe this BS so they stick with him while he knows any rational person with a pulse will vote his ass out for his stupidity.
    It's a hopeless situation...

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