Nate Silver 538

dignin

Jearlpam0925 said:

Better still - right from Gelman's mouth (fingers?) re: the 538 model. Really enjoyed it.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-engineering-the-problematic-tail-behavior-of-the-fivethirtyeight-presidential-election-forecast/

"P.P.P.S. Let me say it again: I see no rivalry here. Nate's doing his best, he has lots of time and resource constraints, he's managing a whole team of people and also needs to be concerned with public communication, media outreach, etc.

My guess is that Nate doesn't really think that, a NJ win for Trump would make it less likely for him to win Alaska; it's just that he's really busy right now and he's rather reassure himself that his forecast is directionally the right approach than worry about where it's wrong. As I well know, it can be really hard to tinker with a model without making it worse. For example, he could increase the between-state correlations by adding a national error term, or by adding national and regional error terms, but then he'd have to decrease the variance within each state to compensate, and then there are lots of things to check, lots of new ways for things to go wrong---not to mention the challenge of explaining to the world that you've changed your forecasting method. Simpler, really, to just firmly shut that Pandora's box and pretend it had never been opened.

I expect that sometime after the election's over, Nate and his team will think about these issues more carefully and fix their model in some way. I really hope they go open source, but even if they keep it secret, as long as they release their predictive simulations we can look at the correlations and try to help out.

Similarly, they can help out with us. If there are any particular predictions from our model that Nate thinks don't make sense, he should feel free to let us know, or post it somewhere that we will find it. A few months ago he commented that our probability of Biden winning the popular vote seemed too high. We looked into it and decided that Nate and other people who'd made that criticism were correct, and we used that criticism to improve our model; see the "Updated August 5th, 2020" section at the bottom of this page. And our model remains improvable.

Let me say this again: the appropriate response to someone pointing out a problem with your forecasts is not to label the criticism as a "quibble" that is "more debatable than wrong" or to say that you're "directionally right," whatever that means. How silly that is! Informed criticism is a blessing! You're lucky when you get it, and use that criticism as an opportunity to learn and to do better."

Geek fight.

HughFreakingDillon

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Better still - right from Gelman's mouth (fingers?) re: the 538 model. Really enjoyed it.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-engineering-the-problematic-tail-behavior-of-the-fivethirtyeight-presidential-election-forecast/

"P.P.P.S. Let me say it again: I see no rivalry here. Nate's doing his best, he has lots of time and resource constraints, he's managing a whole team of people and also needs to be concerned with public communication, media outreach, etc.

My guess is that Nate doesn't really think that, a NJ win for Trump would make it less likely for him to win Alaska; it's just that he's really busy right now and he's rather reassure himself that his forecast is directionally the right approach than worry about where it's wrong. As I well know, it can be really hard to tinker with a model without making it worse. For example, he could increase the between-state correlations by adding a national error term, or by adding national and regional error terms, but then he'd have to decrease the variance within each state to compensate, and then there are lots of things to check, lots of new ways for things to go wrong---not to mention the challenge of explaining to the world that you've changed your forecasting method. Simpler, really, to just firmly shut that Pandora's box and pretend it had never been opened.

I expect that sometime after the election's over, Nate and his team will think about these issues more carefully and fix their model in some way. I really hope they go open source, but even if they keep it secret, as long as they release their predictive simulations we can look at the correlations and try to help out.

Similarly, they can help out with us. If there are any particular predictions from our model that Nate thinks don't make sense, he should feel free to let us know, or post it somewhere that we will find it. A few months ago he commented that our probability of Biden winning the popular vote seemed too high. We looked into it and decided that Nate and other people who'd made that criticism were correct, and we used that criticism to improve our model; see the "Updated August 5th, 2020" section at the bottom of this page. And our model remains improvable.

Let me say this again: the appropriate response to someone pointing out a problem with your forecasts is not to label the criticism as a "quibble" that is "more debatable than wrong" or to say that you're "directionally right," whatever that means. How silly that is! Informed criticism is a blessing! You're lucky when you get it, and use that criticism as an opportunity to learn and to do better."

Geek fight.

LOL. that should be a new Ames Bros t shirt. 

Jearlpam0925

HA. Economist model up to 97%. Basically the only way Biden doesn't win is with major fuckery in counting & recording votes.

F Me In The Brain

I like reading this thread and seeing the confidence.  
I'm not believing this devil will be gone until I see it.  
Will be a great day when it happens, though!

dignin

We Have A Lot Of New Polls But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening

Instead, Biden gains in the Midwest

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-have-a-lot-of-new-polls-but-theres-little-sign-of-the-presidential-race-tightening/

Jearlpam0925

F Me In The Brain said:

I like reading this thread and seeing the confidence.  
I'm not believing this devil will be gone until I see it.  
Will be a great day when it happens, though!

Lol I completely know I'm setting myself up for disaster.

But at this point, fuck it. Tuesday can't get here soon enough. And not because we'll know the results, but at least the commercials and lit in my mailbox and shit will be done.

Jearlpam0925

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321483742729428998?s=19

Go Beavers

Jearlpam0925 said:

So wait, he can run again in 2024 if he wanted to right?

Odds of Trump being alive in four years are fairly low. 

Go Beavers

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.

Absolutely. 

Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.

Which is why he continues with rallies that focus on praising him and also are focused on Democrats as the domestic threat. Notice there’s little reference to terrorism, Muslims threatening us, or Mexican rapists and drug dealers? He’s setting the stage to claim he won when he actually lost. His followers will believe this because of the “fake media” and the high turnout at his rallies mean the polls are wrong. Trump will leave the white house a victim of the deep state.  He now has a about 30% of the country he can sell anything to. He’ll probably get into a media company initially with OAN and the message will be how liberals are the enemy, blah blah. This will set the stage for Jared and/or Ivanka to run in 2024. Republicans will have to figure out how to deal with this or just continue to live in the gutter with them. 

Or I’m wrong and they all go to prison.  

Poncier

F Me In The Brain said:

I'm not believing this devil will be gone until I see it.  

Lerxst1992

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.

Absolutely. 

Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.

Which is why he continues with rallies that focus on praising him and also are focused on Democrats as the domestic threat. Notice there’s little reference to terrorism, Muslims threatening us, or Mexican rapists and drug dealers? He’s setting the stage to claim he won when he actually lost. His followers will believe this because of the “fake media” and the high turnout at his rallies mean the polls are wrong. Trump will leave the white house a victim of the deep state.  He now has a about 30% of the country he can sell anything to. He’ll probably get into a media company initially with OAN and the message will be how liberals are the enemy, blah blah. This will set the stage for Jared and/or Ivanka to run in 2024. Republicans will have to figure out how to deal with this or just continue to live in the gutter with them. 

Or I’m wrong and they all go to prison.  

The funny thing if he launches his own network or partners with OAN and renames it Trump TV, he will be screwing over his loyal lapdog, Fox.

Halifax2TheMax

Lerxst1992 said:

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.

Absolutely. 

Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.

Which is why he continues with rallies that focus on praising him and also are focused on Democrats as the domestic threat. Notice there’s little reference to terrorism, Muslims threatening us, or Mexican rapists and drug dealers? He’s setting the stage to claim he won when he actually lost. His followers will believe this because of the “fake media” and the high turnout at his rallies mean the polls are wrong. Trump will leave the white house a victim of the deep state.  He now has a about 30% of the country he can sell anything to. He’ll probably get into a media company initially with OAN and the message will be how liberals are the enemy, blah blah. This will set the stage for Jared and/or Ivanka to run in 2024. Republicans will have to figure out how to deal with this or just continue to live in the gutter with them. 

Or I’m wrong and they all go to prison.  

The funny thing if he launches his own network or partners with OAN and renames it Trump TV, he will be screwing over his loyal lapdog, Fox.

There’s a rumour that Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat will buy OANN for $300 million, which is under valued, and do just that. Faux sold him out and then he can take on Faux, MSNBC and CNN. The WH email propaganda blast of today was all about how Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat took on the dem and repub establishments.

Jearlpam0925

One thing concerning me today is the sheer amount of unreturned mail ballots at this point in my Keystone State. Not a great look since ballots should've been mailed by this past Tuesday to safely assume they'll show up in time. 

F Me In The Brain

If the mail is working as it is in NJ, mailing one Tuesday means they might arrive sometime over the next 3 weeks.

Gern Blansten

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden at 89% this morning...highest so far for 538 I think

OH and TX on the cuff....

Gern Blansten

Halifax2TheMax said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.

Absolutely. 

Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.

Which is why he continues with rallies that focus on praising him and also are focused on Democrats as the domestic threat. Notice there’s little reference to terrorism, Muslims threatening us, or Mexican rapists and drug dealers? He’s setting the stage to claim he won when he actually lost. His followers will believe this because of the “fake media” and the high turnout at his rallies mean the polls are wrong. Trump will leave the white house a victim of the deep state.  He now has a about 30% of the country he can sell anything to. He’ll probably get into a media company initially with OAN and the message will be how liberals are the enemy, blah blah. This will set the stage for Jared and/or Ivanka to run in 2024. Republicans will have to figure out how to deal with this or just continue to live in the gutter with them. 

Or I’m wrong and they all go to prison.  

The funny thing if he launches his own network or partners with OAN and renames it Trump TV, he will be screwing over his loyal lapdog, Fox.

There’s a rumour that Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat will buy OANN for $300 million, which is under valued, and do just that. Faux sold him out and then he can take on Faux, MSNBC and CNN. The WH email propaganda blast of today was all about how Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat took on the dem and repub establishments.

I don't see that working.  He has money issues now (campaign) because his chud don't have any money.  I can't imagine the advertisers on Trump TV.  Probably Slim Jim and Schlitz.

MayDay10

Gern Blansten said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden at 89% this morning...highest so far for 538 I think

OH and TX on the cuff....

Highest he has been, and Trump down to 10% is the lowest I believe.  

At this point in 2016, Hillary was plummeting fast and \it was down to 67-32  I think it went down into the mid-60s for a few days before adjusting before the election to 71-28.


IMO, the only question is how much of the vote is going to be silenced.

F Me In The Brain

Gern Blansten said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.

Absolutely. 

Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.

Which is why he continues with rallies that focus on praising him and also are focused on Democrats as the domestic threat. Notice there’s little reference to terrorism, Muslims threatening us, or Mexican rapists and drug dealers? He’s setting the stage to claim he won when he actually lost. His followers will believe this because of the “fake media” and the high turnout at his rallies mean the polls are wrong. Trump will leave the white house a victim of the deep state.  He now has a about 30% of the country he can sell anything to. He’ll probably get into a media company initially with OAN and the message will be how liberals are the enemy, blah blah. This will set the stage for Jared and/or Ivanka to run in 2024. Republicans will have to figure out how to deal with this or just continue to live in the gutter with them. 

Or I’m wrong and they all go to prison.  

The funny thing if he launches his own network or partners with OAN and renames it Trump TV, he will be screwing over his loyal lapdog, Fox.

There’s a rumour that Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat will buy OANN for $300 million, which is under valued, and do just that. Faux sold him out and then he can take on Faux, MSNBC and CNN. The WH email propaganda blast of today was all about how Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat took on the dem and repub establishments.

I don't see that working.  He has money issues now (campaign) because his chud don't have any money.  I can't imagine the advertisers on Trump TV.  Probably Slim Jim and Schlitz.

Slim Jim        That is a great fit.

Someone floated this idea to me last week, that Trump wanted to start a Trump News Channel after he left office. 

Money issues have never stopped him before. 

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.

Absolutely. 

Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.

Which is why he continues with rallies that focus on praising him and also are focused on Democrats as the domestic threat. Notice there’s little reference to terrorism, Muslims threatening us, or Mexican rapists and drug dealers? He’s setting the stage to claim he won when he actually lost. His followers will believe this because of the “fake media” and the high turnout at his rallies mean the polls are wrong. Trump will leave the white house a victim of the deep state.  He now has a about 30% of the country he can sell anything to. He’ll probably get into a media company initially with OAN and the message will be how liberals are the enemy, blah blah. This will set the stage for Jared and/or Ivanka to run in 2024. Republicans will have to figure out how to deal with this or just continue to live in the gutter with them. 

Or I’m wrong and they all go to prison.  

The funny thing if he launches his own network or partners with OAN and renames it Trump TV, he will be screwing over his loyal lapdog, Fox.

There’s a rumour that Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat will buy OANN for $300 million, which is under valued, and do just that. Faux sold him out and then he can take on Faux, MSNBC and CNN. The WH email propaganda blast of today was all about how Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat took on the dem and repub establishments.

I don't see that working.  He has money issues now (campaign) because his chud don't have any money.  I can't imagine the advertisers on Trump TV.  Probably Slim Jim and Schlitz.

He won't buy shit.  He will sell his name to OAN if anything. 

Halifax2TheMax

Gern Blansten said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Go Beavers said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?

They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.

Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 

One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.

Absolutely. 

Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.

Which is why he continues with rallies that focus on praising him and also are focused on Democrats as the domestic threat. Notice there’s little reference to terrorism, Muslims threatening us, or Mexican rapists and drug dealers? He’s setting the stage to claim he won when he actually lost. His followers will believe this because of the “fake media” and the high turnout at his rallies mean the polls are wrong. Trump will leave the white house a victim of the deep state.  He now has a about 30% of the country he can sell anything to. He’ll probably get into a media company initially with OAN and the message will be how liberals are the enemy, blah blah. This will set the stage for Jared and/or Ivanka to run in 2024. Republicans will have to figure out how to deal with this or just continue to live in the gutter with them. 

Or I’m wrong and they all go to prison.  

The funny thing if he launches his own network or partners with OAN and renames it Trump TV, he will be screwing over his loyal lapdog, Fox.

There’s a rumour that Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat will buy OANN for $300 million, which is under valued, and do just that. Faux sold him out and then he can take on Faux, MSNBC and CNN. The WH email propaganda blast of today was all about how Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat took on the dem and repub establishments.

I don't see that working.  He has money issues now (campaign) because his chud don't have any money.  I can't imagine the advertisers on Trump TV.  Probably Slim Jim and Schlitz.

My Pillow, Goya, 700 Club, Tactical gear, online education, gold commemorative coins and every cheap, useless, home appliance, kitchen tool, house maintenance product ever envisioned as advertisers. He’ll bamboozle funding and you know Jared Dear Boy and Ivanka Darlink are all in.