Nate Silver 538
Comments
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Jearlpam0925 said:I think Pittsburgh dump of the segregated ballots from yesterday will be this afternoon. So I think that should definitely do it. Unless Philly comes with an 8k margin before then.0
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Jearlpam0925 said:___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
eeriepadave said:Is this the same dude that does sports predictions in baseball, basketball, etc.... ?i believe it is
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PATres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly. PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA0 -
JimmyV said:I am no Democrat and I'm happy to kick dirt and blame on them when it's deserved, but I'm unsure what they are supposed to do when 70mil Americans look at Trump's first four years and try to sign up for four more.
For the Dems to ever have a shot they need to do more seed planting over years.0 -
Listening to NPR today they said that Nate Silver has been demoted to Nate Bronze!!!Scio me nihil scire
There are no kings inside the gates of eden0 -
dignin said:Right on. Politics is a contact sport, not meant for the feint of heart. Get out there, hit the pavement and knock on doors. Pull out that support that is already there.
Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.jesus greets me looks just like me ....0 -
mrussel1 said:So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing? Stoking fears?Your boos mean nothing to me, for I have seen what makes you cheer0
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static111 said:Listening to NPR today they said that Nate Silver has been demoted to Nate Bronze!!!my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf0
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Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Gern Blansten said:www.myspace.com0
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Preach.
FYI for anyone looking to make free money. For some ungodly reason PA, GA, AZ, and WI are clearly underpriced on predictit.org. So go get some free money. Also some other underpriced markets on there if you squint. Go get some money!0 -
Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.0 -
Lerxst1992 said:Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Lerxst1992 said:Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.0 -
I don't disagree that it sucks that dems can win the popular vote by 6 million votes and still almost lose the fucking election. Makes no senseRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Lerxst1992 said:Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Yeah, sure. Actually if Trump didn't successfully brand most democrats as socialists (other than Biden), the democrats wouldn't have to worry about two long shot Georgia runoffs to have any shot at winning the senate. Thank god there was a more moderate dem at the top of the ticket...
www.myspace.com0 -
Lerxst1992 said:Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 10 -
benjs said:Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
benjs said:Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why.Your boos mean nothing to me, for I have seen what makes you cheer0
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And it can't be stressed enough - though, I know a lot of people have tried - that you cannot forecast the Electoral College. Forecasting 50 individual races is incredibly tough, though like a normal person when you look at as a whole it's far easier. When the dust settles here neither 538 or Economist will be far off.0
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