And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.
I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now.
I guess she is just a better person than Powell.
Now you're just being petty. You know that's not what I said, you're just basically pouting at this point, I don't understand why. If this candidate was your friend and I insulted her and hurt your feelings I apologize.
Do I think she's a better politician? Based on the evidence I have little doubt.
Pouty? About what? Democrats and their voters are supposed to be better people than than our counterparts. If I see something that doesn't live up to that standard, I'm going to call it out. I do it consistently on this board and in real life.
Fine, you've turned this into something it's not, but that's your perogative.
I want my candidates to be better politicians, tactitions and just all around tougher. I'm not quite sure what you want other than maybe platitudes. Reminds me of Melania's "be better".
Trying to paint me as Trumpian is ridiculous, but go ahead. Water off a ducks back.
And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.
I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now.
Right there with you. This is the kind of ground game of networking I'm talking about.
This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.
So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing? Stoking fears?
It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.
I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible.
I think Pittsburgh dump of the segregated ballots from yesterday will be this afternoon. So I think that should definitely do it. Unless Philly comes with an 8k margin before then.
Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
Fuck her feelings
Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..
Spanberger almost lost here, a district that Biden carried easily. The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district. It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats, and almost cost her seat. I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call. It's not her fault that someone leaked it.
Regarding Powell crying, she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison. Different situation. Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations. And you know how that plays in the Cuban community. She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win. It might well have cost Biden Florida as well.
Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..
Democrats run their share of negative ads.
Would you say it’s on the same level as the Republicans?
Yeah at the individual election level, for sure. I saw a roughly number of equal ads. In fact, if you think about the cash advantage the dems had, they probably ran far more negative ads simply because they ran far more ads period.
Just because Dems point out all of the awful shit Rs do does not make them negative ads. Rs on the other hand just make shit up about candidates to stoke the fear. There’s a difference.
It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.
I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible.
Right on. Politics is a contact sport, not meant for the feint of heart. Get out there, hit the pavement and knock on doors. Pull out that support that is already there.
Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.
Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
Fuck her feelings
Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..
Spanberger almost lost here, a district that Biden carried easily. The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district. It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats, and almost cost her seat. I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call. It's not her fault that someone leaked it.
Regarding Powell crying, she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison. Different situation. Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations. And you know how that plays in the Cuban community. She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win. It might well have cost Biden Florida as well.
Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..
Democrats run their share of negative ads.
Would you say it’s on the same level as the Republicans?
Yeah at the individual election level, for sure. I saw a roughly number of equal ads. In fact, if you think about the cash advantage the dems had, they probably ran far more negative ads simply because they ran far more ads period.
Just because Dems point out all of the awful shit Rs do does not make them negative ads. Rs on the other hand just make shit up about candidates to stoke the fear. There’s a difference.
Yeah I don't know about that. Both sides spin on the official ads. It's different than the memes and other internet garbage.
I think Pittsburgh dump of the segregated ballots from yesterday will be this afternoon. So I think that should definitely do it. Unless Philly comes with an 8k margin before then.
PA dashboard just dropped uncounted mail ballots by 13k first time in 15 hours it moved, but Biden margin has not budged in a while.
I am no Democrat and I'm happy to kick dirt and blame on them when it's deserved, but I'm unsure what they are supposed to do when 70mil Americans look at Trump's first four years and try to sign up for four more.
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly. PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
I am no Democrat and I'm happy to kick dirt and blame on them when it's deserved, but I'm unsure what they are supposed to do when 70mil Americans look at Trump's first four years and try to sign up for four more.
Like I said, they need to build better than throwing money at a problem in the last 12 months before an election.
For the Dems to ever have a shot they need to do more seed planting over years.
It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.
I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible.
Right on. Politics is a contact sport, not meant for the feint of heart. Get out there, hit the pavement and knock on doors. Pull out that support that is already there.
Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.
This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.
So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing? Stoking fears?
all dems have to do is tell the truth with a slightly dramatic spin
"every society honours its live conformists and its dead troublemakers"
Yeah how many times did we hear that "even if the polls were wrong by more than they were in '16, he'd still win? That's why folks were more confident this time around.
FYI for anyone looking to make free money. For some ungodly reason PA, GA, AZ, and WI are clearly underpriced on predictit.org. So go get some free money. Also some other underpriced markets on there if you squint. Go get some money!
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Yeah and you were pushing Giuliani's bullshit on the other thread...
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018) The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Weren't you just on here yesterday spreading false info for the Trump campaign?
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Lol Yeah, sure. Actually if Trump didn't successfully brand most democrats as socialists (other than Biden), the democrats wouldn't have to worry about two long shot Georgia runoffs to have any shot at winning the senate. Thank god there was a more moderate dem at the top of the ticket...
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why.
'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why.
Exactly....and with there likely being 306 EC and 5mil+ more popular votes it came out the way it was predicted.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018) The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why.
desperate to be right
"every society honours its live conformists and its dead troublemakers"
And it can't be stressed enough - though, I know a lot of people have tried - that you cannot forecast the Electoral College. Forecasting 50 individual races is incredibly tough, though like a normal person when you look at as a whole it's far easier. When the dust settles here neither 538 or Economist will be far off.
Comments
I want my candidates to be better politicians, tactitions and just all around tougher. I'm not quite sure what you want other than maybe platitudes. Reminds me of Melania's "be better".
Trying to paint me as Trumpian is ridiculous, but go ahead. Water off a ducks back.
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible.
Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.
PA dashboard just dropped uncounted mail ballots by 13k first time in 15 hours it moved, but Biden margin has not budged in a while.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
For the Dems to ever have a shot they need to do more seed planting over years.
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
FYI for anyone looking to make free money. For some ungodly reason PA, GA, AZ, and WI are clearly underpriced on predictit.org. So go get some free money. Also some other underpriced markets on there if you squint. Go get some money!
538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
Yeah, sure. Actually if Trump didn't successfully brand most democrats as socialists (other than Biden), the democrats wouldn't have to worry about two long shot Georgia runoffs to have any shot at winning the senate. Thank god there was a more moderate dem at the top of the ticket...
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2