Nate Silver 538

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    I guess the positive spin on the Wisconsin issue (and maybe PA as they're trying to take it back to the Supreme Court) is that so many people have actually listed and voted so early this time around. Hoping that makes the difference.
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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Gern Blansten said:
    538 puts GA back in Biden's column.....Nate says 


    Wow it has been a week since there was a poll showing Trump ahead there...
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  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

    This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?
    They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.
    Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 
    the next round of mid terms you'll have nervous repub senators coming out saying trump was a mistake. 

    That assumes Trump loses. But the one-party law that the GOP is going for is already in play. If we don't know Biden won on the morning of the 4th, it's over; Kavanaugh just said as much.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
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    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,844
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    it's just insane to me (and probably other non-americans) how your country's elections and other things of that nature resemble that of a country with a dictator. it's crazy that this shit can be done. you don't hear about anything remotely like this in canada. 

    It’s bad but not quite like a dictator. It got a lot worse when SCOTUS struck down voting rights protections in Shelby v Holder. Since then, states can do almost whatever TF they want. It’s important to remember, in red states, nearly half the people agree with the voter fraud nonsense. 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,520
    The Juggler said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

    This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?
    They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.
    Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 
    One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,520
    bootleg said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Just so everyone knows - models do not take into account for disruption and/or court fuckery (legal term). So take that little laptop of yours, get a Google Voice number, create a script, and copy & paste it to everyone you know via text to make sure everyone and their mothers are voting.
    Read a thread on Twitter that I can’t find again but the gist of it was that exit polls in states with GOP lead legislatures were often off from the final vote counts.  People came out thinking that they voted but their vote was provisional due some type of suppression fuckery and ultimately not counted.  And this was only happening in GOP areas.  In Dem locations the exit polling very closely matched the final voting margins.  It’s not just the vote that matters, it’s the count.  Got to be extra vigilant to make sure your vote is being counted especially all of you mail in voters.  Got to follow the process to a T or else you’re opening your vote up to GOP fuckery.
    Here in Philly we're using a fucking convention center to hold onto ballots until they're allowed to be counted on the 3rd. It's "heavily guarded", but still, whatever that's worth.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,844
    bootleg said:
    Still nervous as hell about this whole thing.   Really hoping Dems flood the polls and don’t rely on maili in ballots.  We need to win this thing big on election night to take away any chance of bull shit going down in the Supreme Court.  I hate that this fuck got to appoint 3 SC in one term.  Where is the fucking balance?  Five judges appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote?  And 5 states get to determine the election outcome?  We’ve got a serious problem.  Sorry for the language, it’s just boiling up and I’m tired of being held hostage by the minority.

    States get more power than people and that goes back to America’s original sin.

    The only thing Dems can do is add states and judges if they win congress and presidency. Schumer was clearly threatening something yesterday with his “you get no say if we are in the majority next year (a clear threat to end the filibuster)”, but he is famous for backing down. 

    Ending the filibuster on its own does little as whatever gets passed into law would only flip the next time the govt control flips. Adding states that should be blue would be the biggest change to partisan political power since the civil rights act.
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,455
    OnWis97 said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

    This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?
    They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.
    Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 
    the next round of mid terms you'll have nervous repub senators coming out saying trump was a mistake. 

    That assumes Trump loses. But the one-party law that the GOP is going for is already in play. If we don't know Biden won on the morning of the 4th, it's over; Kavanaugh just said as much.
    a) trump is going to lose and I think we'll know pretty early and it's going to be decisive. 
    b) kavanaugh is trump in a robe and has a bone to pick with democrats. he is also one justice, not the be all. 
    c) while the conservative judges on the court MAY side with kavanaugh, if they wish to uphold the values of the court, they'll side with precedent (and I don't know what that is, to be honest). sure, they side with conservative values, but they aren't supposed to side with conservative politics. we haven't seen any evidence yet that they will. I know you're the pessimist in chief around here, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to go that way. 
    Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall




  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

    This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?
    They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.
    Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 
    the next round of mid terms you'll have nervous repub senators coming out saying trump was a mistake. 
    I think it will be sooner than that. 
    www.myspace.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    The Juggler said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

    This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?
    They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.
    Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 
    One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.
    Absolutely. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,170
    I was just listening to some of tRump's speech in Lansing....amazing how he just yammers on about how far ahead he is.  You would think his message would be that it is close and "get out and vote" instead of gloating that he is ahead in states that he clearly trails in.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
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  • GlowGirl
    GlowGirl New York, NY Posts: 12,069
    Gern Blansten said:
    I was just listening to some of tRump's speech in Lansing....amazing how he just yammers on about how far ahead he is.  You would think his message would be that it is close and "get out and vote" instead of gloating that he is ahead in states that he clearly trails in.
    I had that on the TV in the background. As soon as I heard the crowd start chanting - "We love you" - and the smug look on his face, I had to turn it off. It was making my blood pressure rise.

  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,844
    GlowGirl said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I was just listening to some of tRump's speech in Lansing....amazing how he just yammers on about how far ahead he is.  You would think his message would be that it is close and "get out and vote" instead of gloating that he is ahead in states that he clearly trails in.
    I had that on the TV in the background. As soon as I heard the crowd start chanting - "We love you" - and the smug look on his face, I had to turn it off. It was making my blood pressure rise.


    It trump is so far ahead, why is he doing four rallies a day? Do one and go play some golf Donnie, if it’s in the bag.
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,455
    Gern Blansten said:
    I was just listening to some of tRump's speech in Lansing....amazing how he just yammers on about how far ahead he is.  You would think his message would be that it is close and "get out and vote" instead of gloating that he is ahead in states that he clearly trails in.
    his ego won't let himself sound the alarm, or act in any way that means he's not winning at every step, all the time. 

    hopefully it's what will be his ultimate downfall. 
    Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall




  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,520
    Lerxst1992 said:
    GlowGirl said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I was just listening to some of tRump's speech in Lansing....amazing how he just yammers on about how far ahead he is.  You would think his message would be that it is close and "get out and vote" instead of gloating that he is ahead in states that he clearly trails in.
    I had that on the TV in the background. As soon as I heard the crowd start chanting - "We love you" - and the smug look on his face, I had to turn it off. It was making my blood pressure rise.


    It trump is so far ahead, why is he doing four rallies a day? Do one and go play some golf Donnie, if it’s in the bag.
    Because he loves that shit. That's what the job of President is to him.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,844
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    The Juggler said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Just imagine the reaction if a president Bush would have been talking about voter fraud like tRump does.  It would be huge news.  Now it's just another stupid tweet.  Yet I fear that he is up to something behind the scenes.  Hopefully I'm just paranoid.

    This WI supreme court thing is odd...especially given the issues with the postal service.  It's like they are working together right?
    They essentially are. The entire party wants one party rule and they’re willing to allow a Trump dictatorship to make it happen.
    Really? Wait and see how quickly they kick him to the curb once he loses. Some are already starting to try and distance themselves. We can't let them though. 
    One of the benefits of the internet and tech (though there are few) is we've got receipts for allllll of these assholes. They've shown their asses and they should all be tied up by their Buster Browns.
    Absolutely. 

    Trump has a loyal army of followers. Trump will likely start his own media empire and look to be a republican kingmaker, if not a candidate in 2024. He will at the very least have the power to target and primary anyone in congress who is disloyal. I’m just hoping against hope the polls and Nate are correct about the size of that army in one week, but if he loses he will be influential in GOP politics if he wants to. His bigger interest will likely be creating a money making media empire.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,520
    So wait, he can run again in 2024 if he wanted to right?
  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,852
    edited October 2020
    yeah, but I actually doubt he would.  I bet one of his kids or Kushner goes for it.  
    Donald Trump will be 78.... and frankly, I don't believe his health condition is going to stave off the effects of advanced age.  

    He will sit there, sling shit all over our country, and probably continue to hold rallies.  He will remain very influential in the Republican party as he has a literal army of followers who believe he is some sort of messiah.  
    Post edited by MayDay10 on
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    If Biden wins convincingly and the dems take back the senate....he's losing a lot of his clout. You're going to hear the Republicans go back to their post Romney loss playbook and figure out how they can actually grow their party as opposed to just playing to a 30% moronic base. 
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  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,170
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So wait, he can run again in 2024 if he wanted to right?
    Yes but that won't happen...the repubs won't make that mistake again
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2

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