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Nate Silver 538

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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    tbergs said:
    mrussel1 said:
    JimmyV said:
    Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 
    I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

    As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL
    Completely agree.  And the polls appear to have been within the margin of error.  GA and TX were dreams. 
    Everyone I work with this morning started ragging on the polls because they thought it would be a Biden landslide and it isn't. I was like, but so far the polls have been right as far as outcomes besides the pipe dream states. I mean, Florida blue would have been great, but as unrealistic as Texas. Although, where I think FL is damn near a lost cause moving forward, Texas could easily be blue if the right candidate runs. It's much more balanced than it was 20 years ago. Either way, yeah, disappointing because a certain group of this country were hopeful Trump was not who we are, but this has shown more people than desired are happy to hitch their trailer to a dumpster full of used condoms and moldy big macs.
    Well said...I was hoping for TX and FL to flip which would have sealed the deal early.

    This election should not be close.  Especially after his tirade last night...tRump is a direct threat to this democracy.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    edited November 2020
    MayDay10 said:
    The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?
    It's an anomaly for sure.  Something tells me that, without tRump being on the ticket, a lot of these racist white morons just don't vote again.

    And I am not suggesting that all tRump supporters are racist white morons....but the RWM vote is a lock for tRump
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 289
    It seems right now the polling errors margins of 2016 were still there if not a little worse.
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 12,158
    Yeah we learned nothing from 2016 and assumed the polls would be accurate in 2020. They were not.

    This weekend we rock Portland
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    MayDay10 said:
    The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?
    But the forecasters job is to riffle thru the guts of the polls and figure out how people are likely to vote. So many errors, including  the senate, the house and the pop vote.

    538 told us R leaning pollsters are garbage and it turned out 538 was garbage. I’ve been saying all along I hope Nate is right but this race looks much more like 50 50 than 90 10. I know more about politics than Nate, period. I warned him 2 elections in a row and he went on a fairly tale goose chase, twice.

    Even is Biden wins, there is so much nonsense from538 and the biggest thing may be the Dems need a six point popular vote win to win the electoral college. This could be total statistical garbage from 538. Biden is winning the EC now with a 2 point pop vote lead.
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon HeadstoniaPosts: 25,538
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.
    Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.
    thats part of the issue- you fell for the media's spin once again.  so taken up by your political desires, you actually think when he said that that he meant to do it. Sarcasm used to be a thing we all understood, but in the age of media headlines, you immediately assumed he meant to inject bleach!  No offense- but the general public, it's something like 65%, don't actually read the article or watch the clip, they just read the headline, re-tweet it, and tell all their friends how dumb trump is.  Funny to watch him troll the media, because he's good at it, he knows how they'll print it and how slackjaws will eat it up.
    we've all watched the clip. the entire clip. all the clips. several times. he's a fucking idiot. he doesn't understand sarcasm. claiming sarcasm after being called out is the excuse of the stupid. 

    and you and his supporters are so desperate to believe him. 
    (Track 10 of The Headstones' Nickels For Your Nightmares)


  • tbergstbergs Posts: 7,761
    MayDay10 said:
    The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?
    But the forecasters job is to riffle thru the guts of the polls and figure out how people are likely to vote. So many errors, including  the senate, the house and the pop vote.

    538 told us R leaning pollsters are garbage and it turned out 538 was garbage. I’ve been saying all along I hope Nate is right but this race looks much more like 50 50 than 90 10. I know more about politics than Nate, period. I warned him 2 elections in a row and he went on a fairly tale goose chase, twice.

    Even is Biden wins, there is so much nonsense from538 and the biggest thing may be the Dems need a six point popular vote win to win the electoral college. This could be total statistical garbage from 538. Biden is winning the EC now with a 2 point pop vote lead.
    The vote wasn't going to be 90/10. Those were the odds and they are holding true. Anyone who thought the vote wouldn't be close was applying some wishful thinking and giving this country the benefit of the doubt it didn't deserve.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • static111static111 Posts: 2,344
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 12,158
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    Another way to own the libs.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • dignindignin Posts: 8,902
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon HeadstoniaPosts: 25,538
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    (Track 10 of The Headstones' Nickels For Your Nightmares)


  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon HeadstoniaPosts: 25,538
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on
    i'll have to check it out. 

    i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 
    (Track 10 of The Headstones' Nickels For Your Nightmares)


  • dignindignin Posts: 8,902
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Thankfully, and I hope that holds.

    I was thinking about it this morning, so around 40% of Americans want an authoritarian leader and around 20% couldn't give a fuck either way by not bothering to vote. Rough numbers but you get the idea.

    America is in a bad way.
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWestPosts: 14,941
    Outside it's America. Stay inside. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on
    i'll have to check it out. 

    i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 
    It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon HeadstoniaPosts: 25,538
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on
    i'll have to check it out. 

    i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 
    It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space
    LOL. I thought you were recommending a documentary. 
    (Track 10 of The Headstones' Nickels For Your Nightmares)


  • static111static111 Posts: 2,344
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on
    i'll have to check it out. 

    i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 
    It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space
    LOL. I thought you were recommending a documentary. 
    At this point I’d call it a precognitive documentary.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on
    i'll have to check it out. 

    i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 
    It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space
    LOL. I thought you were recommending a documentary. 
    I think that you might agree that it kind of is....:)
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 289
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.
    I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 289
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.
    I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.
    Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    bootleg said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.
    I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.
    Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.
    I used to believe that....I would challenge people on FB like it was my duty to inform them.  It doesn't work.  They just think anyone like me is a brainwashed idiot because socialism, etc.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • static111static111 Posts: 2,344
    bootleg said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.
    I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.
    Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.
    It won’t lose one the 1776 commission goes into effect. No Siree. Then people will start critically thinking the right way again.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    MayDay10 said:

    What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

    RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    bootleg said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.
    I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.
    Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.


    We almost got the scare of a lifetime (we still may) and we still don’t get the trump phenomenon on here.

    he is a beloved cult figure to them.  until Dems figure out how to reach people out past the suburbs the senate may be out of reach for a long time and the White House may be a challenge.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    Exhibit 2,112 on what crap 538 reports,



    “Republican Susan Collins of Maine is ahead of her challenger, Democrat Sara Gideon, 50 percent to 44 percent. But about 26 percent of Maine votes are untabulated. Also, Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system. Gideon is likely to be the second choice of most of the supporters of the more progressive independent candidate Lisa Savage. Savage is getting about 4 percent support, so this race favors Collins but could still swing to Gideon.“

    30 mins later Gideon conceded with 25% of the vote uncounted.
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 289
    Looks like a lot of mail in ballots not delivered in a lot of swing states.  USPS defied order to sweep for ballots.  This might be part of the difference we are seeing in the polls.  Still prob off by about 2016 levels but who knows what kind of fuckery was involved then.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    bootleg said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:
    static111 said:
    I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters
    I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

    I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

    That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around. ;)
    i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

    canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 
    Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.
    I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.
    Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.


    We almost got the scare of a lifetime (we still may) and we still don’t get the trump phenomenon on here.

    he is a beloved cult figure to them.  until Dems figure out how to reach people out past the suburbs the senate may be out of reach for a long time and the White House may be a challenge.
    Giving them money seems to work.  That used to be what the GOP said Dems did...gave their constituents money.  Now it's the GOP giving away money.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
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