Nate Silver 538

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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 
  • what dreams
    what dreams Posts: 1,761
    This thread gives me anxiety.  :|
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,401
    edited October 2020
    what dreams said:
    This thread gives me anxiety.  :|
    Yeah, daily life in the US is a toss up. I'm hoping this year that the polls are "wrong" the opposite way and Trump gets obliterated even though it currently looks close.

    My pipe dream is that Trump is crushed in the general, the Senate flips and in the ultimate vindication, McConnell loses re-election. Then, Trump can fulfill one of his 2020 platform items and send himself and Mitch to the moon to establish a permanent residence. Fuck those 2 piles of garbage.
    Post edited by tbergs on
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,357
    tbergs said:
    what dreams said:
    This thread gives me anxiety.  :|
    Yeah, daily life in the US is a toss up. I'm hoping this year that the polls are "wrong" the opposite way and Trump gets obliterated even though it currently looks close.

    My pipe dream is that Trump is crushed in the general, the Senate flips and in the ultimate vindication, McConnell loses re-election. Then, Trump can fulfill one of his 2020 platform items and send himself and Mitch to the moon to establish a permanent residence. Fuck those 2 piles of garbage.
    Political porn! 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 

    It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.

    This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating  how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.

    As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,172
    Clinton never polled at 50% in 2016 though right?  Talking about WI
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    Correct. With a strong 3rd party ticket 47% was the winning number and plenty of pollsters had Clinton at 47% in WI.
  • bootleg
    bootleg Posts: 1,207
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 

    It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.

    This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating  how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.

    As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
    I think we all have PTSD from 2016.  I’m not sure if I’ve ever had a panic attack before, but I think I did have one the day after the election.  I’m hopeful that dems will not make the same mistake and just assume it’s in the bag no matter what the polls suggest.  I think we’re seeing some evidence of that in the early voting turn out.  I wish everyone would get out and vote early.  Don’t wait until Election Day as you may have to wait even longer in lines.  I’m secretly hoping that all the voter suppression attempts by the GOP blows up in their face and causes republicans to have to wait in long lines and that maybe they decide it’s not worth waiting in line to vote for their POS cult leader.   It should be a 95%-5% type of blowout.  The fact that it’s even close is disturbing enough.   
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 

    It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.

    This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating  how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.

    As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
    I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election.  The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second,  showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician. 
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    This ain’t 2016, folks. Trafalgar is garbage. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 

    It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.

    This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating  how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.

    As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
    I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election.  The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second,  showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician. 

    I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 

    It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.

    This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating  how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.

    As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
    I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election.  The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second,  showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician. 

    I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
    It isn't literally their job to figure out who is showing up to the polls and voting.  Their objective (not their job) is to weight the polls by using their demographic analysis,  which is not the same a figuring out who is going to to vote.  They're statisticians not sorcerers.  By definition they will be wrong a percentage of the time,  when they make predictions. 
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Texas is tied, folks. 


    www.myspace.com
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,079
    The Juggler said:
    Texas is tied, folks. 


    Tejas will be stolen if the counted voted is within re-count %s. There’s no way a Tejas repub governor is going to allow Tejas to go blue. We need shrub to come out publicly and vehemently for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden but is on the record as being “retired” from politics. If there ever was a chance for him to atone for the sins of Iraq, this could be that time.
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 

    It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.

    This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating  how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.

    As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
    I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election.  The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second,  showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician. 

    I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
    It isn't literally their job to figure out who is showing up to the polls and voting.  Their objective (not their job) is to weight the polls by using their demographic analysis,  which is not the same a figuring out who is going to to vote.  They're statisticians not sorcerers.  By definition they will be wrong a percentage of the time,  when they make predictions. 
    Well said.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    This random person i found in one of Nate's tweets is pretty good with their research:


  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590

    www.myspace.com
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    So, are you guys telling me it's not 2016?
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    edited October 2020
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    I’ll say although I hate to admit it trafalgar was right last time, and hear back about a broken clock, perhaps a tune instead.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
    Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging.  I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point. 

    It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.

    This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating  how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.

    As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
    I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election.  The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second,  showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician. 

    I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
    It isn't literally their job to figure out who is showing up to the polls and voting.  Their objective (not their job) is to weight the polls by using their demographic analysis,  which is not the same a figuring out who is going to to vote.  They're statisticians not sorcerers.  By definition they will be wrong a percentage of the time,  when they make predictions. 
    Well said.

    Did either of you bother to review their process?

    Of course 538 tries to figure out turnout. One party wins when turnout is high, he other wins when it isn’t. Their forecast would have zero chance of being close to accurate without being able to predict the approximate makeup and size of the electorate

    Of course they will be wrong a percentage of the time. It’s the 12% next to trumps name that is absurd.

    538 has about ten references to turnout in their process, here are a few:

    “The national snapshot accounts for projected voter turnout in each state based on population growth since 2016, changes in how easy it is to vote since 2016, and how close the race is in that state currently — closer-polling states tend to have higher turnout. National polls are not used in the national snapshot; it’s simply a summation of the snapshots in the 50 states and Washington, D.C.“

    There could also be some challenges related to polling during COVID-19. In primary elections conducted during the pandemic, for instance, turnout was hard to  predict. In some ways, the pandemic makes voting easier (expanded options to vote by mail in many states), but it also makes it harder in other ways (it’s difficult to socially distance if you must vote in person).


    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on

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