Nate Silver 538

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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    OnWis97 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    benjs said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%. 

    I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.

    I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per  Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
    A broken clock is right twice a day.
    Exactly - same goes for an some guy I work with who now follows only Rasmussen because they were right in 2016. I proceeded to tell him every squirrel finds a nut. He also went on to think CA had a chance to go red because of some dumb tweet, sooo.... 

    Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

    It’s more than just confirm bias or a broken clock. NCWs are the largest demo that most pollsters missed, and nobody is sure if they will bring a bigger tidal wave of support this time.

    I also think its possible the AA dem base will also show up in big numbers, with Obama helping. I certainly miss having a leader like him. But that demo is much much smaller, so polling error there has a lower impact
    Non-college whites?
    Why were they missed.




    The key states WI PA MI ranged from 4-6% NCW underpolling which explains the difference between polls predictions of President Hillary Clinton and what actually occurred. 
  • GlowGirl
    GlowGirl New York, NY Posts: 12,069
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    I was a lot more nervous four years ago .
    that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

    i didn't go to work the next day. 
    That was the worst night ever. One of my friends came over and we watched the whole brutal thing until 3:00am (or something like that). Next day I was so depressed. I work from home, but didn't leave my bed all day. Just brought the laptop to the bed with me. It was such a blow.

  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 31,568
    Yeah in 16 I was totally shocked& depressed after the election, this time I’m not expecting anything good I’ll vote and if he wins I’ll just go about my business and start preparing for my retirement in 4yrs! 
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    Expect the worst, hope for the best is my mantra.

    But it'll absolutely still fucking sting if he wins.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

    Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    Lerxst1992 said:
    That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

    Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 
    52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,401
    PJNB said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

    Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 
    52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 
    What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,079
    tbergs said:
    PJNB said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

    Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 
    52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 
    What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.
    And like BP is doing. There’s so much opportunity to be had in transitioning and partnering with the likes of amazon, Wal Mart, GM, Ford, etc. Electric vehicles, battery storage, reimagined grid, solar and wind farms, energy efficiency and on and on. But Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat digs coal and windmills kill birds and create “fumes.” Plus, he wants crystal clean water so he can waste it in the shower, taking a dump and washing his hands. The US will be left behind, again.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,852
    tbergs said:
    PJNB said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

    Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 
    52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 
    What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.
    Its an adult conversation that roughly 40% of the country is incapable of having. 

     
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,079
    Think Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat has a clue?

    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article14059787.html
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    Interesting nugget:


  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,172

    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,458
    MayDay10 said:
    tbergs said:
    PJNB said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

    Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 
    52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 
    What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.
    Its an adult conversation that roughly 40% of the country is incapable of having. 

     
    honestly, the very definition of conservatives. 
    Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall




  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    tbergs said:
    PJNB said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

    Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 
    52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 
    What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.

    What’s going to replace natural gas for heating in cold climates? IIRC the closest on the horizon for green heat is geothermal, and we’ve been waiting many years for that.

    Ironically, one of the reasons we have replaced many coal fired power plants in recent years is due to fracking. In NC:

    ” From 2005 to 2017, total carbon-dioxide emissions from electricity generation in North Carolina fell by 36%. There are other sources of CO2 emissions, of course, and other greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, if present trends continue, it could well be that the overall decline in greenhouse-gas emissions will be in the neighborhood of 40% by 2025.

    Is the growth of solar and other renewable-energy sources a major explanation for the decline in emissions? Not really. Solar (2.1%) and hydroelectric dams (3.7%) produced 5.8% of our electricity in 2010. By 2017, solar (4%), hydro (3%), and other alternatives (3.2%) made up 10.2%. That’s a noticeable increase. It explains a part of the emissions decline.

    But the vast majority is attributable to the fact that natural gas went from 7% of North Carolina’s electricity generation in 2010 to 30% in 2017. Nuclear stayed about the same (33% in 2017). And coal dropped dramatically from 56% in 2010 to 27% in 2017.

    Gas and coal are both fossil fuels. But gas burns a lot cleaner than coal. We’ve been able to make the switch from coal to gas without burdening power customers because the fracking revolution made it economical to drill for and recover large amounts of natural gas from within the United States. It has made America a net energy exporter rather than a net importer. And it is the primary reason for the emissions reduction that Gov. Cooper and his allies may soon take credit for.”


    Time for methane bomb pics?

  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    A forecast is not an aggregate, man.

    This made me thinks of that

    ” At FiveThirtyEight, we strive to accumulate and analyze polling data in a way that is honest, informed, comprehensive and accurate. While we do occasionally commission polls, most of our understanding of American public opinion comes from aggregating polling data conducted by other firms and organizations. This data forms the foundation of our polling averages, election forecasts and much of our political coverage.”
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    I'll say again - a forecast is not an aggregate.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    My original comment was 538 takes an aggregate of polls and makes a series of adjustments, of which I listed four. Curiously, that original “aggregate / forecast” comment was soon after mine, but I had accurately described 538s process. So go figure. I can’t.
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478

    ‘Warning flare’: New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead

    In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP




    https://www-politico-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16035547935218&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363


    Also this

    https://www-msnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp-video/mmvo94537797543?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16035549323784&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/watch/first-time-voters-young-voters-making-their-voices-heard-in-2020-94537797543

    New Data Show Early Youth Vote Spiking in Battleground States



    https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-tufts-data-show-early-youth-vote-spiking-in-battleground-states
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,846
    Even Sleepy Woke Basement Joe gets it-

    “We're going to show you some recent polls from a few key battleground states that will decide this election -- and we have to warn you, you're not going to like what they say:

    Florida

    Joe Biden - 46%
    Donald Trump - 48%

    Trafalgar Group,
    10/14    		Georgia

    Joe Biden - 47%
    Donald Trump - 48%

    Emerson College,
    10/19    		Ohio

    Joe Biden - 46%
    Donald Trump - 49%

    Morning Consult,
    10/13 


    That's right: these polls have Trump beating us in some of the most important swing states.

    In fact, Trump is polling better now in some of these states than he was at this time 4 years ago, when he still managed to win the Electoral College. So with just 10 days left to erase Trump's polling advantages and win this thing, we have to make every one of them count.

    Thanks so much -- let's keep it up over these next 10 days.

    Biden-Harris HQ

  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    edited October 2020
    Campaigns put these out to show urgency. Of course it's close and they're not going to show the polls indicating their lead. I received this spam in Facebook,, too..

    Trafalgar is garbage btw that basically adds red 3-4 pts from the jump.

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