Nate Silver 538

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  • benjs
    benjs Toronto, ON Posts: 9,367
    edited October 2020
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    benjs said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%. 

    I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.

    I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per  Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
    A broken clock is right twice a day.
    Exactly - same goes for an some guy I work with who now follows only Rasmussen because they were right in 2016. I proceeded to tell him every squirrel finds a nut. He also went on to think CA had a chance to go red because of some dumb tweet, sooo.... 

    Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

    It’s more than just confirm bias or a broken clock. NCWs are the largest demo that most pollsters missed, and nobody is sure if they will bring a bigger tidal wave of support this time.

    I also think its possible the AA dem base will also show up in big numbers, with Obama helping. I certainly miss having a leader like him. But that demo is much much smaller, so polling error there has a lower impact
    Of course it's not a perfect science (though more scientific than choosing which polls to accept or refute by an unknown process), but pollsters account for the distribution bias as well, and it's the responsibility of the aggregators to assure that that's the case. I'd be shocked if Nate Silver doesn't factor in something that major in his model.
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    edited October 2020
    Yeah NCWs have not been missed or some mysterious group that's just going to get bigger.

    The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base https://nyti.ms/2TtmJa5

    Look, I get there's a chance Trump could win - and the % is non-trivial - but there's a fixed amount out there for him to reach. When he needed them last time he maxed out, and he barely won in 3 key states. If he wins again it's because he got that same miracle again. My assumption is that turnout will be higher in all other demos for Biden while Trump takes a larged enough marginal hit in this category for him to lose.

    Not to mention he's going to get crushed in the suburbs.
    Post edited by Jearlpam0925 on
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,079
    Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat is behind in every demo except “whites.” That said, mail in ballots are being rejected and I’ll let you guess which demo they’re from.
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    edited October 2020
    Mail ballot rejection in PA I believe is supposed to be ~ 2-3pts overall. Not great, but that could go either way - along with unaffiliated/infrequent voters. 

    Speaking of which, this first woman in this article (actually the woman from Wynnewood, and the couple from South Philly) are the kind of people that drive me nuts. But this is exactly the kind of people outreach should be based around if people want to solidify a win.

    https://whyy.org/articles/millions-of-pennsylvanians-skip-every-election-heres-why-this-year-could-be-different/

    Basically if people want to stop shitting their pants about what could happen, or wincing every time Trump's %'s improve in the model - sign up for phone/text-banking, write postcards & letters, knock on some neighbors' doors. That's the only way to produce a win.
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Mail ballot rejection in PA I believe is supposed to be ~ 2-3pts overall. Not great, but that could go either way - along with unaffiliated/infrequent voters. 

    Speaking of which, this first woman in this article (actually the woman from Wynnewood, and the couple from South Philly) are the kind of people that drive me nuts. But this is exactly the kind of people outreach should be based around if people want to solidify a win.

    https://whyy.org/articles/millions-of-pennsylvanians-skip-every-election-heres-why-this-year-could-be-different/

    Basically if people want to stop shitting their pants about what could happen, or wincing every time Trump's %'s improve in the model - sign up for phone/text-banking, write postcards & letters, knock on some neighbors' doors. That's the only way to produce a win.
    Amen to that. I volunteered in a few important campaigns. If I was in the states I would be hitting the streets/knocking on doors every night.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    dignin said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Mail ballot rejection in PA I believe is supposed to be ~ 2-3pts overall. Not great, but that could go either way - along with unaffiliated/infrequent voters. 

    Speaking of which, this first woman in this article (actually the woman from Wynnewood, and the couple from South Philly) are the kind of people that drive me nuts. But this is exactly the kind of people outreach should be based around if people want to solidify a win.

    https://whyy.org/articles/millions-of-pennsylvanians-skip-every-election-heres-why-this-year-could-be-different/

    Basically if people want to stop shitting their pants about what could happen, or wincing every time Trump's %'s improve in the model - sign up for phone/text-banking, write postcards & letters, knock on some neighbors' doors. That's the only way to produce a win.
    Amen to that. I volunteered in a few important campaigns. If I was in the states I would be hitting the streets/knocking on doors every night.
    I know it's hard, but if everyone lifted an ounce no one would have to lift a pound. I've sent postcards to my neighbors, have called & texted them, and am knocking on doors when I can. PA was a matter of 44k stinking votes. I know we can make that up in my city alone. Just need everyone in PA & Philly to think along the same lines.
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,172



    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    Wow. Yeah, that's yuge. That's at least a 5% increase - if there's a 5% increase in voter turnout in PA this shit's a done deal.

    Something very most promising for me in 538's model is the output right now of the national popular vote - it has Republicans, at best, maxing out at about 48% and Dems, at best, dropping no further than close to 51%. Now a 3% overall popular vote margin doesn't guarantee a victory in the EC, but I'd say 5% probably does. 
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    edited October 2020
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%. 

    I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.

    I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per  Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
    I know others responded but I think you missed my point. RCP went down kind of wildly earlier in the week based off some weaker quality polling and that got you posting in here sounding the alarm. Meanwhile, 538 didn't change much because it has those polls weighted properly. So then when the higher quality stuff came out yesterday, RCP tilted back up close to where 538 is and has been for a long time. 

    Rather than risk a devastating case of whiplash, trust Mr. Silver. He knows what he's doing. 

    Biden's up around 5-6.5% and has been for MONTHS. He's in a really good spot with 10 days or whatever left. 
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,172
    Yeah 538 is all you need.  GA and OH are back to tRump right now but might be blue with turnout being so high.

    Biden just needs PA, MI and WI
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,458
    i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 
    Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall




  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,521
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 
    Postcards and texts are awaiting you. Haha.

    So glad they finally wrote about this:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-surge-in-republican-voter-registration-might-not-mean-a-surge-in-trump-support/
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    I was a lot more nervous four years ago .
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,172
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 
    Funny that an 8 point lead still leads to anxiety isn't it?  

    I have found myself worrying about what tRump will do if he loses.  I don't necessarily worry about him not conceding...I worry about him never accepting the results and being the sore loser for four years with his 40% chud following along.  Getting him out of office will be great but the shit attitude of his followers isn't going away.

    He will most likely start a tRump TV network to siphon as much money off of the tRumpsters that he can.  My guess is that he will move out of the WH and stay at Mar-a-lago for two months to bilk the gov't for all that hotel and food money.


    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,458
    The Juggler said:
    I was a lot more nervous four years ago .
    that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

    i didn't go to work the next day. 
    Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall




  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,172
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    I was a lot more nervous four years ago .
    that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

    i didn't go to work the next day. 
    Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

    Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

    but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Gern Blansten said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    I was a lot more nervous four years ago .
    that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

    i didn't go to work the next day. 
    Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

    Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

    but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still
    Yeah. Well I should say I was pretty confident until the Comey thing happened. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,172
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    I was a lot more nervous four years ago .
    that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

    i didn't go to work the next day. 
    Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

    Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

    but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still
    Yeah. Well I should say I was pretty confident until the Comey thing happened. 
    Watch "The Comey Rule" on Showtime....you will relive those moments from behind the scenes.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Gern Blansten said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    I was a lot more nervous four years ago .
    that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

    i didn't go to work the next day. 
    Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

    Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

    but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still
    Yeah. Well I should say I was pretty confident until the Comey thing happened. 
    Watch "The Comey Rule" on Showtime....you will relive those moments from behind the scenes.
    I did but thought it was not good at all though. Had such a "made for tv" feeling to it. But, yeah, it definitely brought back that anxiety. 
    www.myspace.com
  • benjs
    benjs Toronto, ON Posts: 9,367
    Gern Blansten said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 
    Funny that an 8 point lead still leads to anxiety isn't it?  

    I have found myself worrying about what tRump will do if he loses.  I don't necessarily worry about him not conceding...I worry about him never accepting the results and being the sore loser for four years with his 40% chud following along.  Getting him out of office will be great but the shit attitude of his followers isn't going away.

    He will most likely start a tRump TV network to siphon as much money off of the tRumpsters that he can.  My guess is that he will move out of the WH and stay at Mar-a-lago for two months to bilk the gov't for all that hotel and food money.


    That'd be the best benefit of Trump in prison - no more regularly hearing from this tremendous waste of oxygen.
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1

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