Nate Silver 538

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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,851
    87%?

    NY Times:

    Since last week, the share of white non-college over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections.

    David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report. wrote on Oct. 1 that voter registration patterns over a longer period in key battleground states show that “Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016.”


    Florida, since the state’s March primary, added 195,652 Republicans and 98,362 Democrats.

    Pennsylvania, since June, Republicans plus 135,619, Democrats up 57,985.

    North Carolina, since March, Republicans up 83,785 to Democrats 38,137.

    In Arizona, the exception, “Democrats out-registered Republicans 31,139 to 29,667” in recent months

  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,852
    At this time in 2016, October 15th, it was 85.5% to 15.5% for Clinton on 538.  It was near its peak.  On October 25th, the % really tightened up a bit through November 5th.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    Wasn't the Comey letter published around this time?
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Wasn't the Comey letter published around this time?
    actually it was Oct 28th
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    Gern Blansten said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Wasn't the Comey letter published around this time?
    actually it was Oct 28th
    Interesting. Come that time (the 25th-28th) if we don't see that kind of tightening like in 2016 then we can clearly see much of an affect that had on that race.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,104
    I’ll bet the polling can’t or doesn’t take into account repubs who voted Obama and McCain and Romney repubs who are breaking for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden, because he’s ahead in all three of those categories. Bigley.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    I’ll bet the polling can’t or doesn’t take into account repubs who voted Obama and McCain and Romney repubs who are breaking for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden, because he’s ahead in all three of those categories. Bigley.
    There's data moving both ways.  However,  Trump campaigning in Iowa tells you what his internal numbers show. 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.
    Very good thread/assessment on this in re: to PA here:


  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    OH back to tRump now....GA listed as Biden
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,851
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.
    www.myspace.com
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,851
    The Juggler said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.

    Am I being mocked?

    Why can’t people who do not agree with 538s projections attempt to have a discussion about an important data point released this week? 
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,357
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.

    Am I being mocked?

    Why can’t people who do not agree with 538s projections attempt to have a discussion about an important data point released this week? 
    Registration numbers are of concern, but here’s the more food for thought 

    1. Democrats have a sizable advantage to start.  The key is getting them to polls
    2. Registering someone in a party is part of a normal drive event.  That’s no guarantee they will vote the party or even vote at all.
    3.  These people are the very definition of someone unlikely to vote.  


  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.

    Am I being mocked?

    Why can’t people who do not agree with 538s projections attempt to have a discussion about an important data point released this week? 
    Mocked? I’m telling you to relax. 

    Today Biden is in Michigan and Trump is in Georgia. That tells you all you need to know about the state of the race. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    These are just button on pipe dreams, like TX.  I have no expectation of any of them going Biden.  
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,357
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    darwinstheory said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    darwinstheory said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.
    I feel like if things go our way with turnout it's a done deal....Biden is going to win big

    But then I worry about the bullshit that tRump is doing behind the scenes and potential Russian bullshit
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2

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