Nate Silver 538

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  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,862
    edited October 2020
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 
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  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 17,002
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 
    Well, look who's come around!
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

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  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,862
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/04/joe-biden-win-texas/
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 
    Well, look who's come around!
    Hey you backed off your prediction right before Biden started surging in the polls again! lol

    I don't think it will happen but it is definitely possible. No doubt


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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,918
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 
    Well, look who's come around!
    Juggler's been positive the whole time.  Or do you mean about TX?  

    I'm not convinced on TX or even FL at this point.  After mid terms in 18, I don't trust FL.  Although I think the Kavanaugh issue hurt in FL, losing us senate seat. 
  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 17,002
    edited October 2020
    The Juggler said:
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 
    Well, look who's come around!
    Hey you backed off your prediction right before Biden started surging in the polls again! lol

    I don't think it will happen but it is definitely possible. No doubt
    Yes, I backed off a bit when Harris was chosen as running-mate because I can't stand her and I was doing a bit of a "sky is falling" routine because of him choosing her. But that was it, just one post the day Harris was selected. But from early on (like while still in the primary), I said Biden wining Texas was a possibility.
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
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  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 17,002
    Actually, I found your reply to me flipping my pick on that day (August 12th). I'd tag you in a reply to the post, but I can't for some reason...

    You said.....

    "I also don't understand his flip flopping on his Texas prediction. I never thought Biden would win there, but he did. And it seems it was all predicated on Biden choosing Warren, Rice, or Bass for his running mate? Really? Yeah, I dunno about that..."

    So yeah, I went a little bonkers that day, but at least I thought it was possible. You said you never thought it could happen...
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    edited October 2020
    Well I still don't think it will happen. haha 

    But yeah, now I think it is possible. 
    www.myspace.com
  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,862
    There seems to be roughly the same or better odds of Biden winning Texas than Trump winning Florida or Pennsy at this point.

    But all anyone talks about is Trump flipping states in his favor.
  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 17,002
    The Juggler said:
    Well I still don't think it will happen. haha 

    But yeah, now I think it is possible. 
    I got ya. Well the fact that it’s even possible further illustrates how shitty of eh incumbent Trump is. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Well I still don't think it will happen. haha 

    But yeah, now I think it is possible. 
    I got ya. Well the fact that it’s even possible further illustrates how shitty of eh incumbent Trump is. 
    Yeah he's not too good good, huh?!
    www.myspace.com
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,088
    tbergs said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Florida, Florida, Florida----as far as Joe getting the win on election night:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856

    funny you should mention FL. 

    Was just reading a skeptical commenter on 538s sub, who pointed out 538 had Nelson odds of winning 2018 senate race at 70%. A race that close should have been 50/50.

    Lets hope seniors really do flip, and really do show up. And first time NCW Trump voting is minimal.
    Right, but having a 70% chance of winning is not the same as the race still being close to around 50/50 on voting. I know this has been said many times before, but that percentage of winning doesn't mean it's going to be a blowout. What's Biden's current prediction to win the popular vote? North of 90%? Doesn't mean Trump still won't get almost 60 million votes (Yuck!).

    at first glance, that 538 prediction of the 2018 FL senate race looked to be 20% off. There is something happening in FL The last 7 years that pollsters are not able to identify. 70% means it’s more than twice as likely that Nelson was going to win. I did not say it was predicted to be a blowout, just that the odds should be near 50 50

    Tying that to the current race, it’s been pointed out here that Bidens 87% mirrors his chances exactly in the tipping point state, which is now PA. If 538 is wrong about PA the next state is FL. 

    No democrat should have any confidence about a statewide vote in FL. IIRC the Dems have lost every statewide FL election since Obama 2012. And that’s tipping point state #2. 

    Biden 87%? No freaking way :)


  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,088
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 


    There is a better chance of me open mouth kissing trump than Biden winning Texas.
  • RunIntoTheRain
    RunIntoTheRain Texas Posts: 1,033
    Calm down Chicken Little  ;)
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,646
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 


    There is a better chance of me open mouth kissing trump than Biden winning Texas.
    Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat is looking for you.
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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,088
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    I saw that Texas is close.  Texas will be finished election night.  If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested.  I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
    Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility 


    There is a better chance of me open mouth kissing trump than Biden winning Texas.
    Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat is looking for you.


    Of course I was referring to Tiffany.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,565
    What's odd is the odds Silver has Biden winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College @ 8 in 100. I mean this is Trump's only way to winning, you would think those odds of happening would be a bit higher.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,565
    Annnnd this is something:


  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,637
    I can’t imagine anyone being less enthusiastic right now...
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