Nate Silver 538

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  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 40,109
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    Well that would be a different reason for staying home than complacency though. 
    no, it would be in addition. people might be willing to risk more if they didn't think he was a slam dunk. 
    Your boos mean nothing to me, for I have seen what makes you cheer



  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    Well that would be a different reason for staying home than complacency though. 
    no, it would be in addition. people might be willing to risk more if they didn't think he was a slam dunk. 
    Could this happen? Sure. But again, after what happened in '16 and witnessing this disaster of a presidency, I think the odds of this happening are not high. 
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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,497
    The Juggler said:
    Florida, Florida, Florida----as far as Joe getting the win on election night:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856

    funny you should mention FL. 

    Was just reading a skeptical commenter on 538s sub, who pointed out 538 had Nelson odds of winning 2018 senate race at 70%. A race that close should have been 50/50.

    Lets hope seniors really do flip, and really do show up. And first time NCW Trump voting is minimal.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,497
    Most oddsmakers have the race around 65% Biden, which makes a lot more sense than 538.
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,513
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Florida, Florida, Florida----as far as Joe getting the win on election night:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856

    funny you should mention FL. 

    Was just reading a skeptical commenter on 538s sub, who pointed out 538 had Nelson odds of winning 2018 senate race at 70%. A race that close should have been 50/50.

    Lets hope seniors really do flip, and really do show up. And first time NCW Trump voting is minimal.
    Right, but having a 70% chance of winning is not the same as the race still being close to around 50/50 on voting. I know this has been said many times before, but that percentage of winning doesn't mean it's going to be a blowout. What's Biden's current prediction to win the popular vote? North of 90%? Doesn't mean Trump still won't get almost 60 million votes (Yuck!).
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,632
    This guy is good, follow him if you can:


  • JimmyV
    JimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,619
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    Well that would be a different reason for staying home than complacency though. 
    no, it would be in addition. people might be willing to risk more if they didn't think he was a slam dunk. 

    Can't speak for anyone else but I am excited to vote for Biden and against Trump. I want to win and run up the score. It's a completely different feeling than in 2016 when I just wanted the whole thing to be over. Hoping I'm not alone in that.
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,632
    edited October 2020
    JimmyV said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    Well that would be a different reason for staying home than complacency though. 
    no, it would be in addition. people might be willing to risk more if they didn't think he was a slam dunk. 

    Can't speak for anyone else but I am excited to vote for Biden and against Trump. I want to win and run up the score. It's a completely different feeling than in 2016 when I just wanted the whole thing to be over. Hoping I'm not alone in that.
    Yeah, I think this is a generally accepted consensus, at least that's how I see it. I think in 2016 people 1) didn't legitimately think Trump had any shot, that humans weren't this awful of a species - so they didn't vote and/or put the work in to see that others voted too because they took it all for granted; 2) Clinton was deemed a flawed candidate (however that is) and therefore helped normalize Trump with the perception that both were equally terrible choices.

    I think this time around there's 1) less people sitting out 2) less undecideds 3) less 3rd party options.
  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,899
    I trust 538's model.  It was actual one of the only places that actually gave Trump a realistic chance in 2016 at almost 30%.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    edited October 2020
    Other than it being ri-goddamned-diculous that people actually have to go through this trouble.....it's a fucking beautiful sight seeing so many people standing in line for hours to vote early already in some states. 

    Imagine how miniscule the percentage is for how many of these people are voting for Trump...
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  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 43,256
    The Juggler said:
    Other than it being ri-goddamned-diculous that people actually have to go through this trouble.....it's a fucking beautiful sight seeing so many people standing in line for hours to vote early already in some states. 

    Imagine how miniscule the percentage is for how many of these people are voting for Trump...
    And watch those ballots "disappear."
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  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,513
    The Juggler said:
    Other than it being ri-goddamned-diculous that people actually have to go through this trouble.....it's a fucking beautiful sight seeing so many people standing in line for hours to vote early already in some states. 

    Imagine how miniscule the percentage is for how many of these people are voting for Trump...
    I don't know, my parents voted early and they're on that stupid Trump bandwagon. This year, I don't think early voting means a whole lot for either side. It's just the best thing to do.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,709
    tbergs said:
    The Juggler said:
    Other than it being ri-goddamned-diculous that people actually have to go through this trouble.....it's a fucking beautiful sight seeing so many people standing in line for hours to vote early already in some states. 

    Imagine how miniscule the percentage is for how many of these people are voting for Trump...
    I don't know, my parents voted early and they're on that stupid Trump bandwagon. This year, I don't think early voting means a whole lot for either side. It's just the best thing to do.
    I tend to agree.  I still think the devotion level means that if anything, Trump voters are more likely to be willing to do this. Of course, Trump voters are less likely to live in places that have giant lines...most of these voters are probably voting blue, so I consider it a good sign.
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,632
    Yeah, I think the jury's out on whether mail-in voting helps either side. Even the Repub cult, but those who are not extreme Trump fans, acknowledge covid is a risk and they shouldn't be inside with others. 

    I think mail-in voting may increase voter turnout. And when turnout is high that traditionally results in a Dem win.

    Now, the problem is where there are limited voter resources, and extensive lines, there's a better chance it's in minority & high poverty communities. Suppress the black and brown vote and R's increase their chances. Or see the fake ballot drop boxes in CA.

    R's only chance of winning is suppressing, gerrymandering, and lowering turnout.

    BTW - anyone figure out what cut the fiber line in VA?
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,990
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Yeah, I think the jury's out on whether mail-in voting helps either side. Even the Repub cult, but those who are not extreme Trump fans, acknowledge covid is a risk and they shouldn't be inside with others. 

    I think mail-in voting may increase voter turnout. And when turnout is high that traditionally results in a Dem win.

    Now, the problem is where there are limited voter resources, and extensive lines, there's a better chance it's in minority & high poverty communities. Suppress the black and brown vote and R's increase their chances. Or see the fake ballot drop boxes in CA.

    R's only chance of winning is suppressing, gerrymandering, and lowering turnout.

    BTW - anyone figure out what cut the fiber line in VA?

    The Virginia Information Technologies Agency said in a tweet that the cable was inadvertently cut during a Chesterfield County roadside utilities project but had no estimate on when it would be repaired.

    Andrea Gaines, a department spokeswoman, said in an email that the cut occurred in the Chester area near Route 10.

  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    The Juggler said:
    Other than it being ri-goddamned-diculous that people actually have to go through this trouble.....it's a fucking beautiful sight seeing so many people standing in line for hours to vote early already in some states. 

    Imagine how miniscule the percentage is for how many of these people are voting for Trump...
    I don't know, my parents voted early and they're on that stupid Trump bandwagon. This year, I don't think early voting means a whole lot for either side. It's just the best thing to do.
    I tend to agree.  I still think the devotion level means that if anything, Trump voters are more likely to be willing to do this. Of course, Trump voters are less likely to live in places that have giant lines...most of these voters are probably voting blue, so I consider it a good sign.
    Really? 
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519947-more-than-60-percent-of-democrats-plan-to-vote-early-just-28-percent-of

    More than 60 percent of Democrats plan to vote early, just 28 percent of Republicans: poll


    More than 60 percent of Democrats plan to vote early just 28 percent of Republicans poll
    © Getty Images

    A Gallup poll released Wednesday shows a wide partisan split between Americans who plan to vote early and those who plan to vote on Election Day. 

    The poll determined that 62 percent of Democratic and 28 percent of Republican respondents said they intend to vote early in the 2020 election as the coronavirus pandemic continues to shape the race. Among independents, 47 percent said they also plan to vote early. 

    Gallup’s poll showed a 34-percentage-point gap between Democrats and Republicans on whether they plan to vote before Election Day, after the past four presidential elections have seen no more than a 2-percentage-point difference between the parties.  

    In total, 45 percent of adults surveyed intend to vote early, with 1 percent already having voted by the time they completed the survey. Half of respondents said they intend to vote on Election Day. 

    Overall, respondents’ 2020 answers align with the trend of increasing early voting since the 2004 presidential election and decreasing Election Day voting. Early voting has jumped 22 points among Democrats, 18 points among Republicans and 16 points among independents since the 2004 election. 

    Out of those who intend to vote early, 60 percent said they will vote absentee, 31 percent will vote in-person and 9 percent are unsure. Out of all respondents, 57 percent plan to vote in-person, 29 percent plan to vote by mail and 8 percent are unsure. 

    Gallup suggested the lower percentage of Republicans planning to vote early this year may be because of President Trump’s unfounded claims about mail-in voting leading to fraud. Ninety percent of Republican respondents said they approve of the president’s job performance.

    The Gallup poll surveyed 1,023 adults in the U.S. between Sept. 14 and 28. The margin of error amounted to 4 percentage points. 

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  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 17,016
    But on the other hand, Biden voters are twice at likely to vote by mail than Trump voters (at least according to a poll in August). So if there's any shenanigans with the mail-in votes being counted, that could favor Trump...

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/18/election-2020-biden-voters-twice-likely-vote-mail-survey-finds/3394795001/
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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,990
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    But on the other hand, Biden voters are twice at likely to vote by mail than Trump voters (at least according to a poll in August). So if there's any shenanigans with the mail-in votes being counted, that could favor Trump...

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/18/election-2020-biden-voters-twice-likely-vote-mail-survey-finds/3394795001/
    Well that was the plan with his remarks all along.  REduce the number of his voters that vote by mail and then push to get all mail in votes thrown out in key states.  That will help him on the margins.  
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,632
    Right, he's going to challenge everything. He's going to pull out every shitty move in the book, especially intimidation at the polls - another big reason to vote by mail.

    This was a good read: https://www.inquirer.com/columnists/attytood/mike-roman-voter-suppression-election-2020-trump-gop-20201013.html

    This guy has 50,000 "volunteers" for E-Day. As someone working E-Day one of my priorities is to look for intimidation. 

    Semi-related: if anyone here is healthy, relatively young (not over 60), and are able to, you should work in some capacity on Election Day.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    Much harder to call shenanigans if it's a decisive margin though
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