Nate Silver 538

mrussel1 · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

mickeyrat said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

tbergs said:

dignin said:

The Juggler said:

One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .

This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.

Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.

For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.

I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.

What does that mean?

If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA" It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.

have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go All

In my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.

I don't think Democrats drape their trucks in flags. I have to see one either, even though I'm in a D district.

HughFreakingDillon · September 2020

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mickeyrat said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

tbergs said:

dignin said:

The Juggler said:

One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .

This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.

Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.

For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.

I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.

What does that mean?

If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA" It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.

have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go All

In my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.

I don't think Democrats drape their trucks in flags. I have to see one either, even though I'm in a D district.

yeah, that's more an obnoxious republican trait.

Gern Blansten · September 2020

Yeah the "silent majority" really isn't silent. They are proud to support that piece of shit.

OnWis97 · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

mickeyrat said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

tbergs said:

dignin said:

The Juggler said:

One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .

This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.

Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.

For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.

I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.

What does that mean?

If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA" It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.

have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go All

In my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.

'Nuff said.

mrussel1 · September 2020

OnWis97 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mickeyrat said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

tbergs said:

dignin said:

The Juggler said:

One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .

This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.

Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.

For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.

I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.

What does that mean?

If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA" It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.

have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go All

In my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.

'Nuff said.

Just more evidence of the existence of it. Lex inadvertently admitted to that which he normally denies. WWG1WGA.

Gern Blansten · September 2020

hell yes he did

MayDay10 · September 2020

538 takes a lot of shit for 2016, but from what I remember, they were the only outlet giving Trump like a 30% chance of winning, and a lot of their written content was trying to tell their readers that 30% was significant, many things were within the margin for error, and the election CAN go to Trump.

I feel better this time with the 20-30%. I believe a lot of the pollsters have adjusted their methods and thinking. I also believe there are a lot more closeted Biden voters this time around than Hillary, and we could even see a bounce that direction like we saw with Trump in 2016.

The things that make me VERY nervous are to what extent are people going to be prevented from voting? They are playing all sorts of evil games with that. If everyone votes, Trump gets crushed.

Also, Trump WILL contest the election, and it is probable he will be 'leading' after election night. He is going to contest it, I fear violence will erupt in the streets. The Supreme Court might ultimately have to decide it, and, well, that took a major blow this week. Kiss our democracy goodbye if/when this happens.

Lerxst1992 · September 2020

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mickeyrat said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

tbergs said:

dignin said:

The Juggler said:

One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .

This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.

Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.

For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.

I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.

What does that mean?

If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA" It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.

have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go All

In my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.

'Nuff said.

Just more evidence of the existence of it. Lex inadvertently admitted to that which he normally denies. WWG1WGA.

Haha

2 new ABC News polls released this morning.

Trump up 4 in FL
Trump up 1 in AZ

Fasten your seatbelts, 2020 is not 2016 whatnow?

(as sweet home Alabama comes on the radio, woooooo hooooo hooooo!)

“we all did what we could do, watergate does not bother me, does your conscience bother you!)
.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Gern Blansten · September 2020

You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3

mrussel1 · September 2020

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

Gern Blansten · September 2020

I'm interested in seeing some new OH polls. That state has tightened up according to 538

The Juggler · September 2020

Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Trump needs Florida more than Biden.

The Juggler · September 2020

Latest FL poll moved Biden from 60% to 58%...still higher than where he was two weeks ago.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/

Anyone know if Bloomberg's money blitz has even started there yet though? I have a feeling that will help. His ads were great in the primaries.

Gern Blansten · September 2020

The Juggler said:

Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Trump needs Florida more than Biden.

Yeah FL would just be icing on the cake...not necessary for Biden. Biden needs PA for sure

mrussel1 · September 2020

The felon issue won't be in the numbers. Be interesting to see if that makes a difference. I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one.

Gern Blansten · September 2020

mrussel1 said:

The felon issue won't be in the numbers. Be interesting to see if that makes a difference. I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one.

Yeah but watch them all vote for tRump.

The Juggler · September 2020

Ledbetterman10 · September 2020

The Juggler said:

Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

The Juggler said:

A 77% chance to win but only a 4-point lead in the polls? I dunno, I don't really "get" the simulations that site does.

Regarding PA, it's looking pretty similar to 2016: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh going for the Dem, and all the rural places going for Trump. I'd be curious to see what the polling in Lackawanna County (my home county) looks like. Hillary won there in 2016, but just barely (50%-46% versus 65%-35% for Obama/Romney). Biden is from Scranton, but will that matter? Biden has been in Washington forever, but Scranton has gotten progressively worse. Even the once-great Steamtown Mall is closed now. Now, it's not like Trump has made anything better. But despte that, my hometown (about 10 miles from Scranton) is a total a Trump town now after being democratic for my entire youth. I wonder how Scranton and Wilkes-Barre are looking.

The Juggler · September 2020

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

How do we get from polls to forecasted vote share?

To calculate what percentage of the vote each candidate is forecasted to get in Pennsylvania, our model starts with the weighted polling average and then factors in economic conditions, demographics, uncertainty and how states with similar characteristics are forecasted to vote. The steps below show a simplified version of how that data shapes the forecast.

		TRUMP	BIDEN
1.	Polling average	45.2%	49.7%
	Adjust for polling bounces from recent events	-0.8	+0.1
2.	Adjusted polling average	44.4%	49.8%
	Allocate undecided voters	+2.6	+2.6
3.	Polls-based vote share	46.9%	52.4%
	Average with demographics-based vote share projection	45.9%	53.4%
4.	Today’s vote share (if the election were held today) For Pennsylvania, this average is 79% polls, 21% demographics	46.7%	52.6%
	Average with economics- and incumbency-based projection	51.5%	47.8%
5.	Projected vote share for Nov. 3 For Pennsylvania, this average is 86% today’s vote share, 14% economics and incumbency	47.4%	51.9%

Ledbetterman10 · September 2020

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.

Nate Silver 538

Comments

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

How do we get from polls to forecasted vote share?

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