Nate Silver 538
Options
Comments
-
Lerxst1992 said:mickeyrat said:OnWis97 said:mrussel1 said:OnWis97 said:tbergs said:dignin said:The Juggler said:
One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.
have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go AllIn my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.0 -
mrussel1 said:Lerxst1992 said:mickeyrat said:OnWis97 said:mrussel1 said:OnWis97 said:tbergs said:dignin said:The Juggler said:
One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.
have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go AllIn my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall0 -
Yeah the "silent majority" really isn't silent. They are proud to support that piece of shit.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Lerxst1992 said:mickeyrat said:OnWis97 said:mrussel1 said:OnWis97 said:tbergs said:dignin said:The Juggler said:
One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.
have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go AllIn my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley0 -
OnWis97 said:Lerxst1992 said:mickeyrat said:OnWis97 said:mrussel1 said:OnWis97 said:tbergs said:dignin said:The Juggler said:
One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.
have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go AllIn my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.0 -
hell yes he didRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
538 takes a lot of shit for 2016, but from what I remember, they were the only outlet giving Trump like a 30% chance of winning, and a lot of their written content was trying to tell their readers that 30% was significant, many things were within the margin for error, and the election CAN go to Trump.
I feel better this time with the 20-30%. I believe a lot of the pollsters have adjusted their methods and thinking. I also believe there are a lot more closeted Biden voters this time around than Hillary, and we could even see a bounce that direction like we saw with Trump in 2016.
The things that make me VERY nervous are to what extent are people going to be prevented from voting? They are playing all sorts of evil games with that. If everyone votes, Trump gets crushed.
Also, Trump WILL contest the election, and it is probable he will be 'leading' after election night. He is going to contest it, I fear violence will erupt in the streets. The Supreme Court might ultimately have to decide it, and, well, that took a major blow this week. Kiss our democracy goodbye if/when this happens.0 -
mrussel1 said:OnWis97 said:Lerxst1992 said:mickeyrat said:OnWis97 said:mrussel1 said:OnWis97 said:tbergs said:dignin said:The Juggler said:
One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary. "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it." Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs. Who knows.I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump. I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94. Funny/scary.
have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go AllIn my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify. FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.Haha
2 new ABC News polls released this morning.
Trump up 4 in FL
Trump up 1 in AZ
Fasten your seatbelts, 2020 is not 2016 whatnow?
(as sweet home Alabama comes on the radio, woooooo hooooo hooooo!)“we all did what we could do, watergate does not bother me, does your conscience bother you!)
.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/Post edited by Lerxst1992 on0 -
You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.0
-
I'm interested in seeing some new OH polls. That state has tightened up according to 538Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
Trump needs Florida more than Biden.www.myspace.com0 -
Latest FL poll moved Biden from 60% to 58%...still higher than where he was two weeks ago.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/
Anyone know if Bloomberg's money blitz has even started there yet though? I have a feeling that will help. His ads were great in the primaries.Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0 -
The Juggler said:Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
Trump needs Florida more than Biden.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
The felon issue won't be in the numbers. Be interesting to see if that makes a difference. I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one.0
-
mrussel1 said:The felon issue won't be in the numbers. Be interesting to see if that makes a difference. I love that Bloomberg out maneuvered the Republican legislature on this one.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
www.myspace.com0 -
The Juggler said:Meanwhile, Biden's odds of winning PA have jumped from 69 to 77% in the last two weeks:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/The Juggler said:
Regarding PA, it's looking pretty similar to 2016: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh going for the Dem, and all the rural places going for Trump. I'd be curious to see what the polling in Lackawanna County (my home county) looks like. Hillary won there in 2016, but just barely (50%-46% versus 65%-35% for Obama/Romney). Biden is from Scranton, but will that matter? Biden has been in Washington forever, but Scranton has gotten progressively worse. Even the once-great Steamtown Mall is closed now. Now, it's not like Trump has made anything better. But despte that, my hometown (about 10 miles from Scranton) is a total a Trump town now after being democratic for my entire youth. I wonder how Scranton and Wilkes-Barre are looking.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
How do we get from polls to forecasted vote share?
To calculate what percentage of the vote each candidate is forecasted to get in Pennsylvania, our model starts with the weighted polling average and then factors in economic conditions, demographics, uncertainty and how states with similar characteristics are forecasted to vote. The steps below show a simplified version of how that data shapes the forecast.
TRUMP BIDEN 1. Polling average 45.2% 49.7% Adjust for polling bounces from recent events -0.8 +0.1 2. Adjusted polling average 44.4% 49.8% Allocate undecided voters +2.6 +2.6 3. Polls-based vote share 46.9% 52.4% Average with demographics-based vote share projection 45.9% 53.4% 4. Today’s vote share (if the election were held today) For Pennsylvania, this average is 79% polls, 21% demographics
46.7% 52.6% Average with economics- and incumbency-based projection 51.5% 47.8% 5. Projected vote share for Nov. 3 For Pennsylvania, this average is 86% today’s vote share, 14% economics and incumbency
47.4% 51.9% www.myspace.com0 -
Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0
Categories
- All Categories
- 148.8K Pearl Jam's Music and Activism
- 110K The Porch
- 273 Vitalogy
- 35K Given To Fly (live)
- 3.5K Words and Music...Communication
- 39.1K Flea Market
- 39.1K Lost Dogs
- 58.6K Not Pearl Jam's Music
- 10.6K Musicians and Gearheads
- 29.1K Other Music
- 17.8K Poetry, Prose, Music & Art
- 1.1K The Art Wall
- 56.7K Non-Pearl Jam Discussion
- 22.2K A Moving Train
- 31.7K All Encompassing Trip
- 2.9K Technical Stuff and Help