Nate Silver 538

MayDay10

I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics.  Lol.  people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.

MayDay10

Gern Blansten said:

I'm pretty sure my MIL isn't voting tRump again.  She is pretty pissed off about tRump downplaying COVID and mask wearing.

My inlaws were seeing the light with Covid and the criminal mishandling of that....


But now, they are fired up because 'they' are trying to eliminate the Lincoln and Jefferson Memorials (are they?) and refusing to watch the NFL, (although watched "some" in week 2), etc.  These people are always picked up at the usual bus stops by the dog whistles.

darwinstheory

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 

Ledbetterman10

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

My grandmother died two weeks ago at age 90, so she won't be voting. But since ya brought her up, and you like presidential politics, her favorite president was Roosevelt because "he was nice and made sure everybody had food" during WW2. 

Oh man, I'm sorry. I thought you mentioned her recently. Or maybe it was an aunt who was a shy Trump voter?

It was my aunt. So if you're going to file away someone's previous post to suggest to someone else what their next post is going be, you should get it right. 

Alrighty then. However, I did say "grandmom or somebody" so my point remains. But I am sorry your grandmom passed. Obviously I did not know that. 

No hard feelings over the grandmother thing. Obviously you couldn't know that. But your point doesn't remain because the "here's what he's going to cite..." stuff is bullshit. "He once cited...." would be reasonable enough. But actually my response to GernBlansten was to have been similar to my response to DarwinsTheory above; which is that I think the majority of supporters don't buy signs, fly flags, and literally "show" their support for their preferred candidate, whether it be Trump or whoever.

The Juggler

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 

Gern Blansten

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 

I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.

The Juggler

I'm a mortgage loan officer and, yeah, usually borrowers don't bring up politics. The ones who do though? Yep, Trump supporters.

Incidentally, these are also always the people who object to me having to ask them their race, ethnicity and sex.

tbergs

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 

I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.

Ditto for me. Live in Trump country so it would be impossible to have a discussion with any of them just based on the non-political conversations I've had and their obnoxiously overt appreciation for the guy and lack of belief in Covid.

I Had to talk to my one neighbor last night because my son said the guy flicked him off and mouthed FU to him when he biked by after he waved. Walked over there and he's dragging his yard on a mower wearing his Trump 2020 No More BS shirt and holding a beer. Definitely half in the bag. Had no idea what I was talking about. He would never do that. Same guy that flies 2 Trump flags, one with him on a tank, and is also known to drive an electric cooler around the area sometimes. Different mentality.

And when I did my taxes this year, the person preparing for me continually made comments about Trump and what he has done to help people. I just sat there and was thinking don't cut any corners please. I don't want an audit to discover some tax preparer decided it was ok to make some modest adjustments to get me more money back. 

mrussel1

The Juggler said:

I'm a mortgage loan officer and, yeah, usually borrowers don't bring up politics. The ones who do though? Yep, Trump supporters.

Incidentally, these are also always the people who object to me having to ask them their race, ethnicity and sex.

Sex?  Do I get to make up my own sex?  Hardy har fucking har. 

HughFreakingDillon

tbergs said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 

I do that all the time.  I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters.  Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc.  It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank.  I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.

Ditto for me. Live in Trump country so it would be impossible to have a discussion with any of them just based on the non-political conversations I've had and their obnoxiously overt appreciation for the guy and lack of belief in Covid.

I Had to talk to my one neighbor last night because my son said the guy flicked him off and mouthed FU to him when he biked by after he waved. Walked over there and he's dragging his yard on a mower wearing his Trump 2020 No More BS shirt and holding a beer. Definitely half in the bag. Had no idea what I was talking about. He would never do that. Same guy that flies 2 Trump flags, one with him on a tank, and is also known to drive an electric cooler around the area sometimes. Different mentality.

And when I did my taxes this year, the person preparing for me continually made comments about Trump and what he has done to help people. I just sat there and was thinking don't cut any corners please. I don't want an audit to discover some tax preparer decided it was ok to make some modest adjustments to get me more money back. 

it's crazy how much americans identify with the political party they belong to or the politician they support. i don't think i've ever seen one solitary piece of ephemera with a politician's name on it in canada. 

OnWis97

Yeah...Even when things were less crazy, debating people never really resulted in changing a lot of minds.  Now?  You're coming from totally different realities. If someone asks me a question that I believe is leading toward something potentially productive, sure, I'll engage.  But I don't start the ball rolling and I don't jump in on pro-Trump BS, be it in person or on-line.

PJNB

MayDay10 said:

I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics.  Lol.  people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.

That is a tough position to be in. I bet you want to be true to yourself and your beliefs but you know it is not worth the headache to even bother to engage. I open my mouth against conspiracy nuts and trumpers at work all the time. It gets me no wheres and really wish I did not interact as much as I do in the lunchroom. 

The Juggler

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

I'm a mortgage loan officer and, yeah, usually borrowers don't bring up politics. The ones who do though? Yep, Trump supporters.

Incidentally, these are also always the people who object to me having to ask them their race, ethnicity and sex.

Sex?  Do I get to make up my own sex?  Hardy har fucking har. 

"Well, last time I checked..."   

"What the hell is this world coming to with these questions?"

"DERRR, does it get me a better rate if I say female (or Hispanic or Black for the other questions)?



These are quite popular responses. 

MayDay10

PJNB said:

MayDay10 said:

I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics.  Lol.  people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.

That is a tough position to be in. I bet you want to be true to yourself and your beliefs but you know it is not worth the headache to even bother to engage. I open my mouth against conspiracy nuts and trumpers at work all the time. It gets me no wheres and really wish I did not interact as much as I do in the lunchroom. 

Its just stupid.  I tried not to engage before in political talk since Obama because it has gotten too volatile.  I sense a new degree of hostility toward people who are for Biden or anyone else besides Trump.  I used to be able to find common ground with anyone and talk politics, but at this point its impossible because people are living in "Trump" ground where nothing else matters and there aren't any real issues.  Its just a bunch of bullshit Nationalistic concepts and attacks on information and media.  

So I guess I am very closeted.  My wife too.  We both work in companies surrounded by Trumpers (at least the ones who are loud about it).  We dont really talk about it at all until we are at home and we vent to one another

static111

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize. 

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results. 

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship. 

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then? 

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts. 

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden. 

I had one of these interactions today with a coworker because I couldn’t take the lies anymore.  Was told that I’m the one that doesn’t have the facts, lol then for a reason unknown to me He brought up Martin Luther king and was explaining some nonsense about how Martin Luther king never said rioting is the language of the unheard And what he really said was that rioting is bad and it makes fools of the movement.  so I pulled up a YouTube video of the speech he was trying to quote given by MLK In His own voice....”well that wasn’t the whole speech (editors note: it was the whole speech) they cut off the part they don’t want you to hear and that’s why you liberals don’t know the facts because you ve been brainwashed bro” or some nonsense....I’m still trying to figure out how questioning some pro trump anti mask propaganda got him to making up mlk quotes.  But like somebody just said. They bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

static111

My interaction was somewhat like Fauci and Rand Paul.  https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1308799208208691202?s=12

Lerxst1992

Gern Blansten said:

You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3

I NEED to be nervous about trump winning. I really wish pollsters would release how they sample. My biggest question is have pollsters changed their demographic allocations based on how the actual 2016 vote turned out (have they adjusted for the significant 2016 democrat undervote?)

But watching cnn and msnbc these days, all they do is whine all day how evil trump is. That feels a lot like 2016.

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3

I NEED to be nervous about trump winning. I really wish pollsters would release how they sample. My biggest question is have pollsters changed their demographic allocations based on how the actual 2016 vote turned out (have they adjusted for the significant 2016 democrat undervote?)

But watching cnn and msnbc these days, all they do is whine all day how evil trump is. That feels a lot like 2016.

Most pollsters release the cross tabs if you go to their site

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida.  The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year.  The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ.  I'm not buying that one.  

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC. 

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA  - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless? 

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

You left out the other FL poll...Biden +3

I NEED to be nervous about trump winning. I really wish pollsters would release how they sample. My biggest question is have pollsters changed their demographic allocations based on how the actual 2016 vote turned out (have they adjusted for the significant 2016 democrat undervote?)

But watching cnn and msnbc these days, all they do is whine all day how evil trump is. That feels a lot like 2016.

Most pollsters release the cross tabs if you go to their site

Thanks, not sure I know how to get to the fancy stuff like that