Nate Silver 538

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  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,106
    edited September 2020
    Go Beavers said:
    Hi! said:
    static111 said:
    Hi! said:

    Hmmm Bryant street bridge? I really don’t remember all the street names in town as I was out in the sticks.  Northern Michigan in summer is hard to beat
    Not sure, just main drawbridge in downtown area. I thought the clouds were pretty, lol. Yeah, I’ve been all over the state this year and just floored by the beauty. I almost don’t want to tell anyone, keep it a secret, lol. The UP is amazing. I must of visited and hiked 15 of the most beautiful falls you have ever seen. 
    Northern Michigan is a bit of a secret, isn’t it? My dad had a cottage on Douglas Lake, just west of Cheboygan. It’s beautiful up there. If he was still alive I’d probably be there right around this time of year. I’ve got the memories of the sights, sounds, and smell of the air kept in my head, though. 
    Dude I grew up on Douglas lake road.....that’s crazy.  My dad still takes care of a lot of cottages on the lake in the off season 
    Post edited by static111 on
    Scio me nihil scire

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  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,415
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    Another WI poll out this morning has Joe up 9
    www.myspace.com
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,883
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,939
    edited September 2020
    The Juggler said:
    Another WI poll out this morning has Joe up 9

    This "swing state analysis" I did on WI was originally a reply on the forum since some members shot down trump invaders ;) a week ago laughing about polls.

     I do not think the trump supporters are completely wrong. On a state level, the polls are within the margin of error. Dems talking about "great polls" could be enough to piss off undecideds to vote trump.

    Let's face it, after 5 years of trump crap, undecideds are still considering voting for Trump. That alone should scare dems and independent trump haters. 


    Let's give Biden WI. Morning Joe panel today seemed to agree its safe as of now. Obviously I'm hopeful but not convinced. 

    But they put up a pretty big alert on PA which is surprising as he was raised there. 

    He's up 4 in PA in the agregate, similar to Hillary 4 years ago in Sept,  and that's well within the "margin of undecideds" and m/o error.  PA eventually closed to 2

    If biden loses PA, he must win FL or NC if  my math is correct.  Both of these states are within one point. This assumes Biden wins the other 3 swing states (AZ WI MI) plus every close lean blue (NH NV MN). That's a razor thin election. No other way to slice it.


    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,521
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Another WI poll out this morning has Joe up 9

    This "swing state analysis" I did on WI was originally a reply on the forum since some members shot down trump invaders ;) a week ago laughing about polls.

     I do not think the trump supporters are completely wrong. On a state level, the polls are within the margin of error. Dems talking about "great polls" could be enough to piss off undecideds to vote trump.

    Let's face it, after 5 years of trump crap, undecideds are still considering voting for Trump. That alone should scare dems and independent trump haters. 


    Let's give Biden WI. Morning Joe panel today seemed to agree its safe as of now. Obviously I'm hopeful but not convinced. 

    But they put up a pretty big alert on PA which is surprising as he was raised there. 

    He's up 4 in PA in the agregate, similar to Hillary 4 years ago in Sept,  and that's well within the "margin of undecideds" and m/o error.  PA eventually closed to 2

    If biden loses PA, he must win FL or NC if  my math is correct.  Both of these states are within one point. This assumes Biden wins the other 3 swing states (AZ WI MI) plus every close lean blue (NH NV MN). That's a razor thin election. No other way to slice it.


    hence his messaging "this is scranton vs park avenue". direct appeal to pen voters. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.


    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • jeffbr
    jeffbr Seattle Posts: 7,177
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.


    Yup. If you see #WWG1WGA or #SaveTheChildren you know you've encountered a QAnon nutter.
    "I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,250
    jeffbr said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.


    Yup. If you see #WWG1WGA or #SaveTheChildren you know you've encountered a QAnon nutter.
    And it is interesting that the admin has referred to Q as nuts.  Pence cancelled an appearance with a Q freak.  Yet they still cling to tRump.


    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,883
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.


    Thanks, I have heard that phrase by them.  The good news is that sort of thing speaks to the people who are on board already. 
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,521
    jeffbr said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.


    Yup. If you see #WWG1WGA or #SaveTheChildren you know you've encountered a QAnon nutter.
    is that what save the children is about? jesus. that's spray painted on a train overpass 5 minutes from my fucking house. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,196
    any minute now those q nutters will be starting fight club. or even better, ass kickers united where they will be drinking wolf cola, fight milk, and exercising at a ratty dive bar contemplating their next apartment construction job.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,883
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    jeffbr said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.


    Yup. If you see #WWG1WGA or #SaveTheChildren you know you've encountered a QAnon nutter.
    is that what save the children is about? jesus. that's spray painted on a train overpass 5 minutes from my fucking house. 
    Yep they're even up there.  It's amazing how many stupid people there are.  It appeals to a certain mindset that is not connected to a political party, country or anything.  Before the internet, these people were your local crank, the person you laughed at when you walked away.  Now they have found their compatriots. 
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    edited September 2020
    The whole "save the children" thing seems to be two-fold. First, it relates to one of Q's staple issues, that the Dems and Hollywood are knee-deep in child-trafficking and pedophilia. I suspect this conspiracy lie was a conscious decision knowing that pedophiles are about the least-liked people on earth (and maybe a little projection, too).  Second, it's a way to attract people.  I saw about a dozen folks on a street corner in my wife's little home town with "save the children" signs.  No Trump gear; no Q.  But also, no real showing of any direct action they were interested in taking. By title, it's a cause anyone can get behind, but it's probably cult-recruitment.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    OnWis97 said:
    The whole "save the children" thing seems to be two-fold. First, it relates to one of Q's staple issues, that the Dems and Hollywood are knee-deep in child-trafficking and pedophilia. I suspect this conspiracy lie was a conscious decision knowing that pedophiles are about the least-liked people on earth (and maybe a little projection, too).  Second, it's a way to attract people.  I saw about a dozen folks on a street corner in my wife's little home town with "save the children" signs.  No Trump gear; no Q.  But also, no real showing of any direct action they were interested in taking. By title, it's a cause anyone can get behind, but it's probably cult-recruitment.
    Agreed. I mean, who is gonna be against pedophilia right?! It's an easy way to lure naïve people in and then gradually they slip further and further down the worm hole. I see it with a few friends on facebook. It's disturbing. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,939
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.


    Thanks, I have heard that phrase by them.  The good news is that sort of thing speaks to the people who are on board already. 


    Conversely those are the people who never used to vote. Last time, trump had a year to round up low participation/funny/ scary people. 

    This time, he has four more years to round up and register the crazies that never used to care about politics. Now they all have flags and signs in their yards. That’s the undecideds or undercounted that the polls could have difficulty capturing. 
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,530
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.



    have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go All
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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,939
    mickeyrat said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    tbergs said:
    dignin said:
    The Juggler said:
     

    One thing Silver has said that is different from '16 is the number of polling being done there as well as the number of high quality polling being done there as well. Wi is good right now .
    This is true across all the battle states, from what I have read.
    Having been in western WI recently, I was surprised to see as many Biden signs as I did. I know that 4 years ago when we were house hunting all over that area, there were no Hillary signs. Not that yard signs mean much in terms of polling, but there is clearly a difference in people's support this time around.
    For all the talk about people being embarrassed about liking Trump, maybe there were people that felt the same about Hillary.  "I'll vote for her, but I ain't advertising it."  Now, between how awful Trump is and the fact that Biden's not "the hated one" Hillary/Biden voters are going with signs.  Who knows.

    I'm in St. Paul but when I've driven rural, I've only seen Trump.  I even saw a ratty wooden "Q WWG1WGA" sign nailed to a tree on the side of I-94.  Funny/scary. 
    What does that mean?
    If you are referring to "Q WWG1WGA"  It's QAnon and the silly jumble of letters is "Where we go 1, we go all." I don't exactly know what it means. But they're achieving mainstream, now.



    have read it means Where We Go 1 We Go All

    In my beloved deep blue state, I saw a few trump flags on pickups yesterday. Have yet to ever see a Biden or Clinton  flag. The latest PA poll has Biden up 3. That is very close yet 538 still has Biden with a75% chance there. There is a phenomenon among a segment of whites that pollsters and 538 are just not able to identify.  FL and PA are very concerning. A USSC battle certainly doesn’t help as it takes attention away from trumps covid failures. It’s the Q conspiracy buffs for sure but more than that. Rural America loves this guy.

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