The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

^
She barely broke 46%. I don't think she sniffed 50%. Biden's been sitting there since May.

This ain't 2016 folks...

The last 5 WI polls Clinton sniffed a minimum of 47%. But there is something else to consider. 

You are not accounting for the actual 3rd party vote of 6%. Take 3% off of trump and 3 off of Clinton. 47% then  is effectively 50% now. Let’s assume polling is just as representative as actual vote in 2020 as it was in 2016 and  that 6% 3rd party goes 60/40 for Biden in 2020, and the remaining vote is as even as it was then. That’s a razor thin margin, approximately a 1% Biden lead. Im not saying Biden is losing, but in no way is his lead in WI or the other swing states “solid” especially considering how poor the 2016 swing state polls were.

I'm not sure I follow. Why would it be 60/40 for Biden? Part of the reason why this race has been so steady and why people don't consider the third party candidates viable this year is because most of those 3rd party supporters from '16 already support Biden. Most people's minds are already made up.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-third-party-voters-2016-are-backing-biden-2-1-n1238841

Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1

First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

Joe Biden accepts the nomination for president during the last day of the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Del, on Aug. 20, 2020.Olivier Douliery / AFP - Getty Images

Aug. 31, 2020, 9:09 AM EDT

By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar and Melissa Holzberg

WASHINGTON — One of the major differences between 2016 and 2020 is that this year’s presidential contest features a smaller third-party vote than four years ago, and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein voters from 2016 are breaking more toward Joe Biden than they are Donald Trump.

Given Trump’s narrow win four years ago, that movement — if it holds — is a big deal.

The combined national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from this year have interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.

Forty-seven percent say they’re voting for Biden, 20 percent are supporting Trump, and 33 percent are unsure or say they’re backing another candidate.

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

The Juggler said:

Yeah I can definitely tell you in PA, Biden's ads are ALL OVER THE PLACE. I don't think I have seen a Trump ad since before his convention maybe. 

Started seeing Trump ads again last night. Touting a "record" 10 million jobs added over the last few months! 

....doesn't mention the millions more lost the previous few months though. lol

The only people dumb to think that's because of Trump are the ones that are voting for him anyway.  Here's an interesting analysis by the USC group, one of the orgs that had Trump at or above Clinton in '16.  Trump has been focused on Law and Order, but the the people who prioritize that as most important are already Trump voters.  Worse for him, among all voters and undecided voters, Biden has an advantage on both racial issues and crime.  So Trump is going all in on an issue where he is at a disadvantage. 

Anyway, interesting article.  https://news.yahoo.com/poll-highlights-key-barriers-trump-110041315.html

Have you changed your survey methodology since the 2016 election?

Yes, we have made adjustments. Our post-election investigation found that the incorrect outcome was due to an excess of rural voters in our sample, most of whom voted for Trump. After correcting our weighting procedures to bring urban and rural residents into correct alignment, our data modeled a 1 percentage point Clinton win. We used our revised model to predict the 2018 generic congressional election outcomes, with great success. This year our weighting procedures have also been revised to “trim” the weights, which will prevent rare individuals from carrying a very heavy weight in the sample

Edit, their sampling error led to an erroneous estimate of popular vote 

But inadvertently nailed the electoral college. Which is exactly the challenge biden is facing.

Go Beavers said:

Hi! said:

static111 said:

Hi! said:

Hmmm Bryant street bridge? I really don’t remember all the street names in town as I was out in the sticks.  Northern Michigan in summer is hard to beat

Not sure, just main drawbridge in downtown area. I thought the clouds were pretty, lol. Yeah, I’ve been all over the state this year and just floored by the beauty. I almost don’t want to tell anyone, keep it a secret, lol. The UP is amazing. I must of visited and hiked 15 of the most beautiful falls you have ever seen. 

Northern Michigan is a bit of a secret, isn’t it? My dad had a cottage on Douglas Lake, just west of Cheboygan. It’s beautiful up there. If he was still alive I’d probably be there right around this time of year. I’ve got the memories of the sights, sounds, and smell of the air kept in my head, though. 

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

Further, check out what the senate is doing today 

Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 

You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 

I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  

exactly

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

Further, check out what the senate is doing today 

Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 

You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 

I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  

exactly

can someone explain this? i don't get why a 5 point lead is different from a 5 point lead. (not being argumentative, just trying to learn how this works)

Lerxst1992 said:

.The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

WI looks solid

Yeah I agree.  Monitoring Trump's travel and ad spending will tell the story of what their internal polling shows.  He's broke so he has to be diligent where he spends. 

Hate to say it gern and russ, but I think AMT has officially gone down the “we forgot how Hillary lost rabbit hole.” 

you clearly have no understanding of how this works....and again....the Comey letter effect

If you are looking at 538s projections of 2016 and 2020 WI and overall,  and not seeing significant similarities after accounting for actual 3rd party votes, perhaps its time for some personal reflection before personal attacks.


Edit, I agree on comey letter but that did not move the polls in WI by 7 points

Further, check out what the senate is doing today 

Your take on the 3rd party votes are incorrect. I addressed that on the previous page. 

You posted an article that biden was 20 ahead among 2016 3rd party voters.

I said previously it will be 60/40 biden. Thats 20 points ahead 


Edit, your article had biden up 27 among those voters.  I estimated it to be 20 from memory. 

I think you're underestimating the fact that Biden is at or above 50% and the number of undecided voters is much smaller.  There simply are not as many voters to move as in 16.  A 5 point lead of 50-45 is not the same as 45-40.  

exactly

Unless trump voters And undecideds are being under sampled and Biden voters over sampled.

Inexact polling can get either candidates total share wrong, as well as its projection of the total voting pool, as it may not be able to identify undecideds. If thats the case, it’s estimate of undecideds would also be unreliable

Biden is up in WI by 6.7% with 7% undecided, and his lead has been shrinking of late. Technically there are enough undecideds to prove this state polling is off again. But we have no way of knowing if the undecideds are accurate. Given trumps weird way of connecting with white voters, I’ll keep saying watch out for states like this. Also, This state is notorious for inexact polling, and The WI demos are very favorable to trump. 

I’d rather have Bidens poll numbers than trump but I’d be careful thinking WI is solid.